2019 Bracketology Thread

[JeremyCuse]

Not sure how Maryland is a lock...

A W over Penn and a good RPI.

Versus a win over Duke and a better RPI?

The win over Penn plays in more because both Maryland and Cornell played Penn. Maryland did not play Duke.

Agreed if your evaluating Maryland vs Cornell for a spot, I was looking at it from a Syracuse vs Maryland standpoint.

[DALaxDad]

Not to pick on the Jays, because they put in a great effort last night and came one play away from a win. But they lost. SOS should not be a separate metric when RPI is taken into account. I have no idea who is the last team out, but they all have an argument to be in.

[laxpert]

see admin post below on potential matchups

[Homer]

Agreed, which is why I found it odd every bracket projection has them in but some of these indie guys projecting strictly off stats have SU out and laxbytes has them way out. Theres some huge disconnect here that one side is missing bigtime. As you mentioned seems bizarre for Desko to be lobbying publicly for a home game if there dangerously close to being left out. Something is way off.

It makes sense there's a lot of variance in where people are slotting Syracuse because they have that one big outlier loss that isn't easily comparable to anybody else. (None of the other bubble-esque teams has a loss worse than #19.) There's no objectively right answer to the question of how much that Colgate game will or should count against them, so you see people applying various discounts but it's all really just guessing at how the committee will choose to assess that.

Given how many AL's are likely to get seeded this year, the margin between getting a home game and being left out isn't actually all that much. Personally I'd be pretty surprised (and disappointed) to see the Orange out, but if it does happen it won't be hard to figure out the thought process.

I've been trying to say this for weeks. Looking at that RPI—and maybe this is my bias showing—I have a very, very difficult time seeing them leaving the #8 RPI team in the country out of the tournament, especially when they have two H2H wins over the #11 team.

I don't think there's any disputing your point that it'd be very unusual for the committee to leave out a team with an RPI in the top 10. Last time it happened was Georgetown in 2010. A notorious snub. By the same token, though, you can flip it around and say, how often does a team with a record as bad as 8-7 get an at-large? It happened that same year, with Hopkins getting in at 7-7. It's only happened once since, with UNC at 8-7 in 2017. So leaving Hopkins out would be unusual, but so would putting Hopkins in. I ultimately agree with you that this is probably going to go their way, mainly because holding the H2H card over Maryland does give them a bit of a potential firewall. But I'm not going to feel totally sure of it until the bracket comes out.

[JeremyCuse]

Agreed, which is why I found it odd every bracket projection has them in but some of these indie guys projecting strictly off stats have SU out and laxbytes has them way out. Theres some huge disconnect here that one side is missing bigtime. As you mentioned seems bizarre for Desko to be lobbying publicly for a home game if there dangerously close to being left out. Something is way off.

It makes sense there's a lot of variance in where people are slotting Syracuse because they have that one big outlier loss that isn't easily comparable to anybody else. (None of the other bubble-esque teams has a loss worse than #19.) There's no objectively right answer to the question of how much that Colgate game will or should count against them, so you see people applying various discounts but it's all really just guessing at how the committee will choose to assess that.

Given how many AL's are likely to get seeded this year, the margin between getting a home game and being left out isn't actually all that much. Personally I'd be pretty surprised (and disappointed) to see the Orange out, but if it does happen it won't be hard to figure out the thought process.

I've been trying to say this for weeks. Looking at that RPI—and maybe this is my bias showing—I have a very, very difficult time seeing them leaving the #8 RPI team in the country out of the tournament, especially when they have two H2H wins over the #11 team.

I don't think there's any disputing your point that it'd be very unusual for the committee to leave out a team with an RPI in the top 10. Last time it happened was Georgetown in 2010. A notorious snub. By the same token, though, you can flip it around and say, how often does a team with a record as bad as 8-7 get an at-large? It happened that same year, with Hopkins getting in at 7-7. It's only happened once since, with UNC at 8-7 in 2017. So leaving Hopkins out would be unusual, but so would putting Hopkins in. I ultimately agree with you that this is probably going to go their way, mainly because holding the H2H card over Maryland does give them a bit of a potential firewall. But I'm not going to feel totally sure of it until the bracket comes out.

Good points all around.

[Cooter]

I've been trying to say this for weeks. Looking at that RPI—and maybe this is my bias showing—I have a very, very difficult time seeing them leaving the #8 RPI team in the country out of the tournament, especially when they have two H2H wins over the #11 team.

I don't think there's any disputing your point that it'd be very unusual for the committee to leave out a team with an RPI in the top 10. Last time it happened was Georgetown in 2010. A notorious snub. By the same token, though, you can flip it around and say, how often does a team with a record as bad as 8-7 get an at-large? It happened that same year, with Hopkins getting in at 7-7. It's only happened once since, with UNC at 8-7 in 2017. So leaving Hopkins out would be unusual, but so would putting Hopkins in. I ultimately agree with you that this is probably going to go their way, mainly because holding the H2H card over Maryland does give them a bit of a potential firewall. But I'm not going to feel totally sure of it until the bracket comes out.

On the other hand, with respect to Syracuse and Maryland, how often has a team with 5 top 20 RPI wins and 1 in the top 5 been left out of the tournament.

[reLAX]

I've been trying to say this for weeks. Looking at that RPI—and maybe this is my bias showing—I have a very, very difficult time seeing them leaving the #8 RPI team in the country out of the tournament, especially when they have two H2H wins over the #11 team.

I don't think there's any disputing your point that it'd be very unusual for the committee to leave out a team with an RPI in the top 10. Last time it happened was Georgetown in 2010. A notorious snub. By the same token, though, you can flip it around and say, how often does a team with a record as bad as 8-7 get an at-large? It happened that same year, with Hopkins getting in at 7-7. It's only happened once since, with UNC at 8-7 in 2017. So leaving Hopkins out would be unusual, but so would putting Hopkins in. I ultimately agree with you that this is probably going to go their way, mainly because holding the H2H card over Maryland does give them a bit of a potential firewall. But I'm not going to feel totally sure of it until the bracket comes out.

On the other hand, with respect to Syracuse and Maryland, how often has a team with 5 top 20 RPI wins and 1 in the top 5 been left out of the tournament.

How does ND, with an 8-6 record get an automatic pass in?

[admin]

According to US Lacrosse Magazine:

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) BIG TEN/Penn State vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Marist-AMERICA EAST/UMBC
(8) Notre Dame vs. Johns Hopkins

East Hartford, Conn.

(5) IVY/Penn vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(4) Yale vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Duke vs. SOUTHERN/Richmond
(6) COLONIAL/Towson vs. Maryland

East Hartford, Conn.

(7) Loyola vs. Syracuse
(2) Virginia vs. NORTHEAST/Robert Morris

Last three in: Syracuse, Johns Hopkins, Maryland
First three out: Cornell, Denver, Ohio State

Moving in: Georgetown, Richmond, Robert Morris, UMBC
Moving out: Denver, High Point, Hobart, Vermont

Multi-bid conferences: Atlantic Coast (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (2), Patriot (2)

[admin]

How does ND, with an 8-6 record get an automatic pass in?

I don't think people, in general, are saying they do. SU, ND, Cornell, JHU, and UMD are all in the discussion about whose season is over.

[nms]

I've been trying to say this for weeks. Looking at that RPI—and maybe this is my bias showing—I have a very, very difficult time seeing them leaving the #8 RPI team in the country out of the tournament, especially when they have two H2H wins over the #11 team.

I don't think there's any disputing your point that it'd be very unusual for the committee to leave out a team with an RPI in the top 10. Last time it happened was Georgetown in 2010. A notorious snub. By the same token, though, you can flip it around and say, how often does a team with a record as bad as 8-7 get an at-large? It happened that same year, with Hopkins getting in at 7-7. It's only happened once since, with UNC at 8-7 in 2017. So leaving Hopkins out would be unusual, but so would putting Hopkins in. I ultimately agree with you that this is probably going to go their way, mainly because holding the H2H card over Maryland does give them a bit of a potential firewall. But I'm not going to feel totally sure of it until the bracket comes out.

On the other hand, with respect to Syracuse and Maryland, how often has a team with 5 top 20 RPI wins and 1 in the top 5 been left out of the tournament.

How does ND, with an 8-6 record get an automatic pass in?

If Yale beats Penn, then Towson moves past Penn to #5 in RPI, giving Cornell a Top 5 win, and taking away Maryand's top 5 win.

[Cooter]

How does ND, with an 8-6 record get an automatic pass in?

I don't think people, in general, are saying they do. SU, ND, Cornell, JHU, and UMD are all in the discussion about whose season is over.

I haven seen few mentioning Notre Dame being on the bubble.

[a fan]

On the other hand, with respect to Syracuse and Maryland, how often has a team with 5 top 20 RPI wins and 1 in the top 5 been left out of the tournament.

I've never seen it with 4 wins. 5 just isn't going to happen. The committee will ignore RPI and SOS before they deny bids to teams with 5 top 20 wins.

Meade is on the committee. No chance he'd let that happen. Syracuse and Md are vying for home games, if you ask me.

[44WeWantMore]

How does ND, with an 8-6 record get an automatic pass in?

I don't think people, in general, are saying they do. SU, ND, Cornell, JHU, and UMD are all in the discussion about whose season is over.

I haven seen few mentioning Notre Dame being on the bubble.

High probability, but not a lock, per LaxBytes.

Code: Select all

  13 Cornell               94.42
  14 Notre Dame            87.52
  15 Johns Hopkins         68.83
  16 Maryland              68.83
  18 Syracuse              53.02

[Cooter]

I've been trying to say this for weeks. Looking at that RPI—and maybe this is my bias showing—I have a very, very difficult time seeing them leaving the #8 RPI team in the country out of the tournament, especially when they have two H2H wins over the #11 team.

I don't think there's any disputing your point that it'd be very unusual for the committee to leave out a team with an RPI in the top 10. Last time it happened was Georgetown in 2010. A notorious snub. By the same token, though, you can flip it around and say, how often does a team with a record as bad as 8-7 get an at-large? It happened that same year, with Hopkins getting in at 7-7. It's only happened once since, with UNC at 8-7 in 2017. So leaving Hopkins out would be unusual, but so would putting Hopkins in. I ultimately agree with you that this is probably going to go their way, mainly because holding the H2H card over Maryland does give them a bit of a potential firewall. But I'm not going to feel totally sure of it until the bracket comes out.

On the other hand, with respect to Syracuse and Maryland, how often has a team with 5 top 20 RPI wins and 1 in the top 5 been left out of the tournament.

How does ND, with an 8-6 record get an automatic pass in?

If Yale beats Penn, then Towson moves past Penn to #5 in RPI, giving Cornell a Top 5 win, and taking away Maryand's top 5 win.

Probably true, have you run the numbers?
Towson is close behind Penn, but RPI is a fickle beast. One of Yale's 2 losses is to Penn, so we would be adding a 12-1 for Yale to Penn's 50% opponent's SOS column. Penn won't drop far, possibly not at all.

[HopFan16]

Patrick Stevens of US Lax Mag has the five teams ranked as followed:

1. Notre Dame
2. Syracuse
3. Johns Hopkins
4. Maryland
5. Cornell

Somewhat similar to LaxBytes ideas of ND, Hop, and Maryland, but complete opposites re: Cuse and Cornell. (I side with Stevens.)

https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/college/m ... discussion

[nms]

I've been trying to say this for weeks. Looking at that RPI—and maybe this is my bias showing—I have a very, very difficult time seeing them leaving the #8 RPI team in the country out of the tournament, especially when they have two H2H wins over the #11 team.

I don't think there's any disputing your point that it'd be very unusual for the committee to leave out a team with an RPI in the top 10. Last time it happened was Georgetown in 2010. A notorious snub. By the same token, though, you can flip it around and say, how often does a team with a record as bad as 8-7 get an at-large? It happened that same year, with Hopkins getting in at 7-7. It's only happened once since, with UNC at 8-7 in 2017. So leaving Hopkins out would be unusual, but so would putting Hopkins in. I ultimately agree with you that this is probably going to go their way, mainly because holding the H2H card over Maryland does give them a bit of a potential firewall. But I'm not going to feel totally sure of it until the bracket comes out.

On the other hand, with respect to Syracuse and Maryland, how often has a team with 5 top 20 RPI wins and 1 in the top 5 been left out of the tournament.

How does ND, with an 8-6 record get an automatic pass in?

If Yale beats Penn, then Towson moves past Penn to #5 in RPI, giving Cornell a Top 5 win, and taking away Maryand's top 5 win.

Probably true, have you run the numbers?
Towson is close behind Penn, but RPI is a fickle beast. One of Yale's 2 losses is to Penn, so we would be adding a 12-1 for Yale to Penn's 50% opponent's SOS column. Penn won't drop far, possibly not at all.

Yes, I put a Yale win over Penn into http://www.laxinteractive.com/ncaa-rpi- ... calculator

[tech37]

According to US Lacrosse Magazine:

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) BIG TEN/Penn State vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Marist-AMERICA EAST/UMBC
(8) Notre Dame vs. Johns Hopkins

East Hartford, Conn.

(5) IVY/Penn vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(4) Yale vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Duke vs. SOUTHERN/Richmond
(6) COLONIAL/Towson vs. Maryland

East Hartford, Conn.

(7) Loyola vs. Syracuse
(2) Virginia vs. NORTHEAST/Robert Morris

Last three in: Syracuse, Johns Hopkins, Maryland
First three out: Cornell, Denver, Ohio State

Moving in: Georgetown, Richmond, Robert Morris, UMBC
Moving out: Denver, High Point, Hobart, Vermont

Multi-bid conferences: Atlantic Coast (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (2), Patriot (2)

Whoa... Mellen vs Spencer would be fun to see.

[Gobigred]

Not sure how Maryland is a lock...

A W over Penn and a good RPI.

Versus a win over Duke and a better RPI?

The win over Penn plays in more because both Maryland and Cornell played Penn. Maryland did not play Duke.

Both Maryland and Cornell played at Notre Dame. One won.

[HopFan16]

One way of looking at it is: Cornell beat Notre Dame, who beat Syracuse, who beat Hopkins (and Cornell), who beat Maryland (twice).

Maryland's the only one of the bunch to not have a win over any of the others, despite three chances to do so.

[runrussellrun]

On the other hand, with respect to Syracuse and Maryland, how often has a team with 5 top 20 RPI wins and 1 in the top 5 been left out of the tournament.

I've never seen it with 4 wins. 5 just isn't going to happen. The committee will ignore RPI and SOS before they deny bids to teams with 5 top 20 wins.

Meade is on the committee. No chance he'd let that happen. Syracuse and Md are vying for home games, if you ask me.

It's a form of gerry mandering, IMHO. What else can you say about a system, primarily based on opponents records, but doesnt account for "top" rpi teams having never playing ANY team from 40-50% of the 9 conferences. Or even only one team playing one team from a conference, primarily for geographic reasons (Navy, Loyola.......but rarely to never Bucknell, Lehigh, BU....or......who from the BIG EAST has anyone from the B1G played??? )