Agreed if your evaluating Maryland vs Cornell for a spot, I was looking at it from a Syracuse vs Maryland standpoint.AreaLax wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 9:22 amThe win over Penn plays in more because both Maryland and Cornell played Penn. Maryland did not play Duke.JeremyCuse wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 8:54 amVersus a win over Duke and a better RPI?
2019 Bracketology Thread
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Not to pick on the Jays, because they put in a great effort last night and came one play away from a win. But they lost. SOS should not be a separate metric when RPI is taken into account. I have no idea who is the last team out, but they all have an argument to be in.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
It makes sense there's a lot of variance in where people are slotting Syracuse because they have that one big outlier loss that isn't easily comparable to anybody else. (None of the other bubble-esque teams has a loss worse than #19.) There's no objectively right answer to the question of how much that Colgate game will or should count against them, so you see people applying various discounts but it's all really just guessing at how the committee will choose to assess that.JeremyCuse wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 11:56 pm
Agreed, which is why I found it odd every bracket projection has them in but some of these indie guys projecting strictly off stats have SU out and laxbytes has them way out. Theres some huge disconnect here that one side is missing bigtime. As you mentioned seems bizarre for Desko to be lobbying publicly for a home game if there dangerously close to being left out. Something is way off.
Given how many AL's are likely to get seeded this year, the margin between getting a home game and being left out isn't actually all that much. Personally I'd be pretty surprised (and disappointed) to see the Orange out, but if it does happen it won't be hard to figure out the thought process.
I don't think there's any disputing your point that it'd be very unusual for the committee to leave out a team with an RPI in the top 10. Last time it happened was Georgetown in 2010. A notorious snub. By the same token, though, you can flip it around and say, how often does a team with a record as bad as 8-7 get an at-large? It happened that same year, with Hopkins getting in at 7-7. It's only happened once since, with UNC at 8-7 in 2017. So leaving Hopkins out would be unusual, but so would putting Hopkins in. I ultimately agree with you that this is probably going to go their way, mainly because holding the H2H card over Maryland does give them a bit of a potential firewall. But I'm not going to feel totally sure of it until the bracket comes out.HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 8:13 am I've been trying to say this for weeks. Looking at that RPI—and maybe this is my bias showing—I have a very, very difficult time seeing them leaving the #8 RPI team in the country out of the tournament, especially when they have two H2H wins over the #11 team.
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Good points all around.Homer wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 9:55 amIt makes sense there's a lot of variance in where people are slotting Syracuse because they have that one big outlier loss that isn't easily comparable to anybody else. (None of the other bubble-esque teams has a loss worse than #19.) There's no objectively right answer to the question of how much that Colgate game will or should count against them, so you see people applying various discounts but it's all really just guessing at how the committee will choose to assess that.JeremyCuse wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 11:56 pm
Agreed, which is why I found it odd every bracket projection has them in but some of these indie guys projecting strictly off stats have SU out and laxbytes has them way out. Theres some huge disconnect here that one side is missing bigtime. As you mentioned seems bizarre for Desko to be lobbying publicly for a home game if there dangerously close to being left out. Something is way off.
Given how many AL's are likely to get seeded this year, the margin between getting a home game and being left out isn't actually all that much. Personally I'd be pretty surprised (and disappointed) to see the Orange out, but if it does happen it won't be hard to figure out the thought process.
I don't think there's any disputing your point that it'd be very unusual for the committee to leave out a team with an RPI in the top 10. Last time it happened was Georgetown in 2010. A notorious snub. By the same token, though, you can flip it around and say, how often does a team with a record as bad as 8-7 get an at-large? It happened that same year, with Hopkins getting in at 7-7. It's only happened once since, with UNC at 8-7 in 2017. So leaving Hopkins out would be unusual, but so would putting Hopkins in. I ultimately agree with you that this is probably going to go their way, mainly because holding the H2H card over Maryland does give them a bit of a potential firewall. But I'm not going to feel totally sure of it until the bracket comes out.HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 8:13 am I've been trying to say this for weeks. Looking at that RPI—and maybe this is my bias showing—I have a very, very difficult time seeing them leaving the #8 RPI team in the country out of the tournament, especially when they have two H2H wins over the #11 team.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
On the other hand, with respect to Syracuse and Maryland, how often has a team with 5 top 20 RPI wins and 1 in the top 5 been left out of the tournament.Homer wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 9:55 am
I don't think there's any disputing your point that it'd be very unusual for the committee to leave out a team with an RPI in the top 10. Last time it happened was Georgetown in 2010. A notorious snub. By the same token, though, you can flip it around and say, how often does a team with a record as bad as 8-7 get an at-large? It happened that same year, with Hopkins getting in at 7-7. It's only happened once since, with UNC at 8-7 in 2017. So leaving Hopkins out would be unusual, but so would putting Hopkins in. I ultimately agree with you that this is probably going to go their way, mainly because holding the H2H card over Maryland does give them a bit of a potential firewall. But I'm not going to feel totally sure of it until the bracket comes out.HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 8:13 am I've been trying to say this for weeks. Looking at that RPI—and maybe this is my bias showing—I have a very, very difficult time seeing them leaving the #8 RPI team in the country out of the tournament, especially when they have two H2H wins over the #11 team.
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
How does ND, with an 8-6 record get an automatic pass in?Cooter wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 10:33 amOn the other hand, with respect to Syracuse and Maryland, how often has a team with 5 top 20 RPI wins and 1 in the top 5 been left out of the tournament.Homer wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 9:55 am
I don't think there's any disputing your point that it'd be very unusual for the committee to leave out a team with an RPI in the top 10. Last time it happened was Georgetown in 2010. A notorious snub. By the same token, though, you can flip it around and say, how often does a team with a record as bad as 8-7 get an at-large? It happened that same year, with Hopkins getting in at 7-7. It's only happened once since, with UNC at 8-7 in 2017. So leaving Hopkins out would be unusual, but so would putting Hopkins in. I ultimately agree with you that this is probably going to go their way, mainly because holding the H2H card over Maryland does give them a bit of a potential firewall. But I'm not going to feel totally sure of it until the bracket comes out.HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 8:13 am I've been trying to say this for weeks. Looking at that RPI—and maybe this is my bias showing—I have a very, very difficult time seeing them leaving the #8 RPI team in the country out of the tournament, especially when they have two H2H wins over the #11 team.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
According to US Lacrosse Magazine:
Hempstead, N.Y.
(1) BIG TEN/Penn State vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Marist-AMERICA EAST/UMBC
(8) Notre Dame vs. Johns Hopkins
East Hartford, Conn.
(5) IVY/Penn vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(4) Yale vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh
Hempstead, N.Y.
(3) Duke vs. SOUTHERN/Richmond
(6) COLONIAL/Towson vs. Maryland
East Hartford, Conn.
(7) Loyola vs. Syracuse
(2) Virginia vs. NORTHEAST/Robert Morris
Last three in: Syracuse, Johns Hopkins, Maryland
First three out: Cornell, Denver, Ohio State
Moving in: Georgetown, Richmond, Robert Morris, UMBC
Moving out: Denver, High Point, Hobart, Vermont
Multi-bid conferences: Atlantic Coast (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (2), Patriot (2)
Hempstead, N.Y.
(1) BIG TEN/Penn State vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Marist-AMERICA EAST/UMBC
(8) Notre Dame vs. Johns Hopkins
East Hartford, Conn.
(5) IVY/Penn vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(4) Yale vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh
Hempstead, N.Y.
(3) Duke vs. SOUTHERN/Richmond
(6) COLONIAL/Towson vs. Maryland
East Hartford, Conn.
(7) Loyola vs. Syracuse
(2) Virginia vs. NORTHEAST/Robert Morris
Last three in: Syracuse, Johns Hopkins, Maryland
First three out: Cornell, Denver, Ohio State
Moving in: Georgetown, Richmond, Robert Morris, UMBC
Moving out: Denver, High Point, Hobart, Vermont
Multi-bid conferences: Atlantic Coast (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (2), Patriot (2)
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
If Yale beats Penn, then Towson moves past Penn to #5 in RPI, giving Cornell a Top 5 win, and taking away Maryand's top 5 win.reLAX wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 10:56 amHow does ND, with an 8-6 record get an automatic pass in?Cooter wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 10:33 amOn the other hand, with respect to Syracuse and Maryland, how often has a team with 5 top 20 RPI wins and 1 in the top 5 been left out of the tournament.Homer wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 9:55 am
I don't think there's any disputing your point that it'd be very unusual for the committee to leave out a team with an RPI in the top 10. Last time it happened was Georgetown in 2010. A notorious snub. By the same token, though, you can flip it around and say, how often does a team with a record as bad as 8-7 get an at-large? It happened that same year, with Hopkins getting in at 7-7. It's only happened once since, with UNC at 8-7 in 2017. So leaving Hopkins out would be unusual, but so would putting Hopkins in. I ultimately agree with you that this is probably going to go their way, mainly because holding the H2H card over Maryland does give them a bit of a potential firewall. But I'm not going to feel totally sure of it until the bracket comes out.HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 8:13 am I've been trying to say this for weeks. Looking at that RPI—and maybe this is my bias showing—I have a very, very difficult time seeing them leaving the #8 RPI team in the country out of the tournament, especially when they have two H2H wins over the #11 team.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
I haven seen few mentioning Notre Dame being on the bubble.
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
I've never seen it with 4 wins. 5 just isn't going to happen. The committee will ignore RPI and SOS before they deny bids to teams with 5 top 20 wins.
Meade is on the committee. No chance he'd let that happen. Syracuse and Md are vying for home games, if you ask me.
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
High probability, but not a lock, per LaxBytes.
Code: Select all
13 Cornell 94.42
14 Notre Dame 87.52
15 Johns Hopkins 68.83
16 Maryland 68.83
18 Syracuse 53.02
Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb'red.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Probably true, have you run the numbers?nms wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 11:07 amIf Yale beats Penn, then Towson moves past Penn to #5 in RPI, giving Cornell a Top 5 win, and taking away Maryand's top 5 win.reLAX wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 10:56 amHow does ND, with an 8-6 record get an automatic pass in?Cooter wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 10:33 amOn the other hand, with respect to Syracuse and Maryland, how often has a team with 5 top 20 RPI wins and 1 in the top 5 been left out of the tournament.Homer wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 9:55 am
I don't think there's any disputing your point that it'd be very unusual for the committee to leave out a team with an RPI in the top 10. Last time it happened was Georgetown in 2010. A notorious snub. By the same token, though, you can flip it around and say, how often does a team with a record as bad as 8-7 get an at-large? It happened that same year, with Hopkins getting in at 7-7. It's only happened once since, with UNC at 8-7 in 2017. So leaving Hopkins out would be unusual, but so would putting Hopkins in. I ultimately agree with you that this is probably going to go their way, mainly because holding the H2H card over Maryland does give them a bit of a potential firewall. But I'm not going to feel totally sure of it until the bracket comes out.HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 8:13 am I've been trying to say this for weeks. Looking at that RPI—and maybe this is my bias showing—I have a very, very difficult time seeing them leaving the #8 RPI team in the country out of the tournament, especially when they have two H2H wins over the #11 team.
Towson is close behind Penn, but RPI is a fickle beast. One of Yale's 2 losses is to Penn, so we would be adding a 12-1 for Yale to Penn's 50% opponent's SOS column. Penn won't drop far, possibly not at all.
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Patrick Stevens of US Lax Mag has the five teams ranked as followed:
1. Notre Dame
2. Syracuse
3. Johns Hopkins
4. Maryland
5. Cornell
Somewhat similar to LaxBytes ideas of ND, Hop, and Maryland, but complete opposites re: Cuse and Cornell. (I side with Stevens.)
https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/college/m ... discussion
1. Notre Dame
2. Syracuse
3. Johns Hopkins
4. Maryland
5. Cornell
Somewhat similar to LaxBytes ideas of ND, Hop, and Maryland, but complete opposites re: Cuse and Cornell. (I side with Stevens.)
https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/college/m ... discussion
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Yes, I put a Yale win over Penn into http://www.laxinteractive.com/ncaa-rpi- ... calculatorCooter wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 11:32 amProbably true, have you run the numbers?nms wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 11:07 amIf Yale beats Penn, then Towson moves past Penn to #5 in RPI, giving Cornell a Top 5 win, and taking away Maryand's top 5 win.reLAX wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 10:56 amHow does ND, with an 8-6 record get an automatic pass in?Cooter wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 10:33 amOn the other hand, with respect to Syracuse and Maryland, how often has a team with 5 top 20 RPI wins and 1 in the top 5 been left out of the tournament.Homer wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 9:55 am
I don't think there's any disputing your point that it'd be very unusual for the committee to leave out a team with an RPI in the top 10. Last time it happened was Georgetown in 2010. A notorious snub. By the same token, though, you can flip it around and say, how often does a team with a record as bad as 8-7 get an at-large? It happened that same year, with Hopkins getting in at 7-7. It's only happened once since, with UNC at 8-7 in 2017. So leaving Hopkins out would be unusual, but so would putting Hopkins in. I ultimately agree with you that this is probably going to go their way, mainly because holding the H2H card over Maryland does give them a bit of a potential firewall. But I'm not going to feel totally sure of it until the bracket comes out.HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 8:13 am I've been trying to say this for weeks. Looking at that RPI—and maybe this is my bias showing—I have a very, very difficult time seeing them leaving the #8 RPI team in the country out of the tournament, especially when they have two H2H wins over the #11 team.
Towson is close behind Penn, but RPI is a fickle beast. One of Yale's 2 losses is to Penn, so we would be adding a 12-1 for Yale to Penn's 50% opponent's SOS column. Penn won't drop far, possibly not at all.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Whoa... Mellen vs Spencer would be fun to see.admin wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 10:59 am According to US Lacrosse Magazine:
Hempstead, N.Y.
(1) BIG TEN/Penn State vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Marist-AMERICA EAST/UMBC
(8) Notre Dame vs. Johns Hopkins
East Hartford, Conn.
(5) IVY/Penn vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(4) Yale vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh
Hempstead, N.Y.
(3) Duke vs. SOUTHERN/Richmond
(6) COLONIAL/Towson vs. Maryland
East Hartford, Conn.
(7) Loyola vs. Syracuse
(2) Virginia vs. NORTHEAST/Robert Morris
Last three in: Syracuse, Johns Hopkins, Maryland
First three out: Cornell, Denver, Ohio State
Moving in: Georgetown, Richmond, Robert Morris, UMBC
Moving out: Denver, High Point, Hobart, Vermont
Multi-bid conferences: Atlantic Coast (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (2), Patriot (2)
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Both Maryland and Cornell played at Notre Dame. One won.AreaLax wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 9:22 amThe win over Penn plays in more because both Maryland and Cornell played Penn. Maryland did not play Duke.JeremyCuse wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 8:54 amVersus a win over Duke and a better RPI?
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
One way of looking at it is: Cornell beat Notre Dame, who beat Syracuse, who beat Hopkins (and Cornell), who beat Maryland (twice).
Maryland's the only one of the bunch to not have a win over any of the others, despite three chances to do so.
Maryland's the only one of the bunch to not have a win over any of the others, despite three chances to do so.
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
It's a form of gerry mandering, IMHO. What else can you say about a system, primarily based on opponents records, but doesnt account for "top" rpi teams having never playing ANY team from 40-50% of the 9 conferences. Or even only one team playing one team from a conference, primarily for geographic reasons (Navy, Loyola.......but rarely to never Bucknell, Lehigh, BU....or......who from the BIG EAST has anyone from the B1G played??? )a fan wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 11:21 amI've never seen it with 4 wins. 5 just isn't going to happen. The committee will ignore RPI and SOS before they deny bids to teams with 5 top 20 wins.
Meade is on the committee. No chance he'd let that happen. Syracuse and Md are vying for home games, if you ask me.
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