2019 Bracketology Thread

[Hawkeye]

Now that we have a full month of results under our belt, I think it now makes sense to start thinking about how things look on the national level. It's obviously still very early, and there are sure to be some wonky projections here on my part -- especially with respect to the automatic qualifiers.

With that said, I want everyone to understand what this is:
1) I am only looking at results that have happened, not making projections.* (with one exception mentioned below)
2) I have used a mix of RPI and the media poll to add some human element to the perception. This is not perfect, but it's the best that I can think of for the time being.
3) I am not presenting myself as an expert on this topic. This is my opinion and is meant as a jumping off point for discussion. If you disagree, you are obviously welcome to post your own projections for everyone to discuss as well!


As for the autobids, I have decided to award them in this way, until a winner is established in each conference.
1) best conference record (head-to-head as tiebreaker, if applicable)
2) best overall record
3) personal judgement* (see above asterisk) - an example of this category is that Denver and Georgetown are both currently 0-0, 4-1 in the Big East. My current judgment is that Denver is the stronger team right now, so I awarded them the autobid.

And with all that said, this is how I currently see the NCAA tournament field at the beginning of March... if the tournament started today:
https://imgur.com/a/SiR0Uaz

Bids by conference in my current projection:
ACC: 3 (Duke, Notre Dame, Virginia)
Big Ten: 3 (Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State)
Big East: 3 (Denver, Georgetown, Villanova)
Ivy League: 2 (Cornell, Yale)

All other leagues currently look like one bid leagues if the favorites win the tournament. The Patriot League has many teams that look to be currently just barely on the outside looking in (the academies, BU, Colgate), so the conference should hope that someone emerges as the clear #2 from that group and that those teams don't beat up each other in conference play.

It is my goal to post an update to this in two weeks and then one every week from the end of March. I look forward to comments and discussion!

[CU77]

RPI numbers (computed by laxpower founder laf) are here:

http://www.laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/rpiing01.php

[Hawkeye]

RPI numbers (computed by laxpower found laf) are here:

http://www.laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/rpiing01.php

Thanks! I will use these instead next time.

[DU-fan]

And with all that said, this is how I currently see the NCAA tournament field at the beginning of March... if the tournament started today:
https://imgur.com/a/SiR0Uaz

Bids by conference in my current projection:
ACC: 3 (Duke, Syracuse, Virginia)
Big Ten: 3 (Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State)
Big East: 3 (Denver, Georgetown, Villanova)
Ivy League: 2 (Cornell, Yale)

All other leagues currently look like one bid leagues if the favorites win the tournament. The Patriot League has many teams that look to be currently just barely on the outside looking in (the academies, BU, Colgate), so the conference should hope that someone emerges as the clear #2 from that group and that those teams don't beat up each other in conference play.

Nice work. It is early, but not too early to speculate and discuss projections

This might be the year where only 2 ACC teams get in. I think Duke has the best chance and could see Notre Dame squeaky in on strength of schedule and Syracuse and Virginia bubble out.

I would think that the B10 could still get 4 teams in the NCAA, but Johns Hopkins will need to get some quality wins to get out of Bubble Out. I think Michigan and Rutgers will struggle to get in again.

Laxbytes also does nice analysis.

http://www.laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/ncaapb01.php

Team Select % Auto Q % At Large %
1 Towson 90.48 16 88.67
2 Loyola 87.36 14.3 85.25
3 Cornell 74.66 15.9 69.87
4 Villanova 69.71 16.6 63.68
5 Yale 66.71 13 61.74
6 Ohio State 65.02 16.7 58.01
7 Maryland 62.1 16.8 54.45
8 Denver 56.79 17.3 47.75
9 Johns Hopkins 56.32 16.4 47.75
10 Boston U. 56.31 13.7 49.38
11 Notre Dame 56.21 0 56.21
12 Penn State 56.05 18.4 46.14
13 Hobart 52.82 14.9 44.56
14 Rutgers 49.09 15.2 39.96
15 Army 47.21 14.2 38.47
16 Richmond 45.32 13.2 37
17 Georgetown 43.04 17.1 31.29
18 Duke 43.01 0 43.01
19 Navy 37.58 14.3 27.17
20 High Point 36.96 11.8 28.53

[Hawkeye]

How I currently see the NCAA tournament field in the middle of March... if the tournament started today:
https://imgur.com/a/cUwe68q

Bids by conference in my current projection:
Big Ten: 3 (Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State)
ACC: 2 (Duke, Virginia)
Colonial: 2 (Delaware, Towson)
Ivy League: 2 (Cornell, Yale)
Patriot League: 2 (Lehigh, Loyola)
Southern: 2 (High Point, Richmond)

With several underdogs (see: Delaware, Lehigh, Richmond) currently being in line for AQs, per my stated criteria, this projection has a very harsh bubble. Notre Dame, in particular, currently has a resume to be in, but it does not compare favorably to the 4 bubble in teams in this projection. I could not find a way to justify putting the Irish in over Towson, Loyola, High Point, or Virginia. If you do not believe there will be this many AQ upsets, shift the bubble 1-3 spots.

I am very skeptical that High Point will make the tournament as an at-large if they do not win the Southern Conference tournament. Right now, their RPI as probably as good as it is going to get, and it's only 18th. Their head-to-head win over Virginia carries them in this projection. I do not believe that they can successfully weather a loss in their conference tournament. Richmond looks like they would likely be the "best loss" High Point could take in this scenario. It would be close one way or another if that is the only other loss that High Point suffered this season.

It is my goal to post an update to this in two weeks and then one every week in April. I look forward to comments and discussion!

[wahoomurf]

Brackets:I have Nolf and Nikal finishing undefeated with Nolf winning The Hodge Trophy. PSU will once again win the whole shebang.

Woops------MEA CULPA....wrong sport.

[10stone5]

We had our top guy poached.
He is now #6 over at Iowa.
No, no one is going to beat the Lions.

[Hawkeye]

How I currently see the NCAA tournament field at the end of week 8... if the tournament started today:
https://imgur.com/a/Xzncp30

Bids by conference in my current projection:
ACC: 4 (Duke, Virginia, Syracuse, Notre Dame)
Big Ten: 3 (Ohio State, Maryland, Penn State)
Big East: 2 (Marquette, Denver)
Colonial: 2 (Delaware, Towson)

With several underdogs (see: Delaware, Lehigh, Marquette) currently being in line for AQs (per my stated criteria), this projection has a very harsh bubble. If you do not believe there will be this many AQ upsets, shift the bubble a few spots.

Some comments on a few teams, in particular:

Penn State - RPI is still not in love with them. Big Ten schedule should lead to an RPI boost.

Notre Dame - Very weird week in the bracket for them. Beat Michigan/Lost to Ohio State and gained a ton spots in the RPI. I have them bubble in with head to head over Denver.

Denver - The Towson win may have saved their chance of getting an at-large bid (if needed) this season.

Towson - Not much margin for error left. I think they still could get an at-large bid if they win out and lose in the CAA tournament, but it will be close. Of the remaining games left, only UMass will really help them.

Loyola - I actually think they have a little more margin than Towson, despite the head-to-head result with them. Lehigh, Army, (and to some degree) BU/Georgetown could help their standing. They don't have a ton of margin for error, but I don't think one more loss would necessarily kill them either.

Cornell - About the worst possible week for the Big Red. St. Bonaventure is an RPI killer, and the loss to Penn has dropped them to 3rd in the pecking order in the Ivy League -- likely a 2 bid league, at best -- for the time being.

High Point - AQ or bust. Only the SoCon tourney matters for them now.

Johns Hopkins - Getting very close to AQ or bust. I think they absolutely cannot afford a loss to Michigan or Rutgers and will need 2 of 3 against tOSU, PSU, UMCP to even seriously think about an at-large bid this season.

I hope to post an update to this weekly from here on.

[foreverlax]

Towson - Not much margin for error left. I think they still could get an at-large bid if they win out and lose in the CAA tournament, but it will be close. Of the remaining games left, only UMass will really help them.

Agreed....at this point winning the CAA could put the Tigers in a solid position for the NCAA tournament. They lose and they could easily be bubble out....the only thing worse...play-in games.

[10stone5]

Big East has done this in the past.
People hate it.
But the CAA could play the spoiler this year.
They could get two slots and bump someone out.
You can slice it and dice it all you want, but the Tigers have three top 20 RPI wins, one top ten RPI win, plus Tigers are still top a top ten RPI team.
Also, Tigers strength of schedule is not likely to fall much below a top 20.

[calourie]

As I am fond of saying, the REALLY good teams in any given season get better as the season progresses. Right now Towson is in a lull, and Umass is on the upswing, Cornell is heading down, Penn is heading up, even among the elite elite, Syracuse did their momentum a huge favor with their comeback win on Sunday, and who is to say how the setback effects this year's Duke team as immediately as in the upcoming UNC tilt. How will even this year's Duke, whom most will allow are as well coached as any team in the land respond. Will they come out on fire and swamp UNC, or will the Tarheels wake up and finally show some muscle and garner some hope and insights from the Cuse comeback, and go on another improbable run like they did to the championship in 2016. End of season results should weigh more in the "body of work" factor than it sometimes does in my opinion, the non-implimentation of which lead to a disintegrating Villanova team squeezing into last year's tournament. I say finish strong and make a case for being one of the best teams in the nation as of the end of the season. That alone is a reward in itself.

[oldbartman]

Towson - Not much margin for error left. I think they still could get an at-large bid if they win out and lose in the CAA tournament, but it will be close. Of the remaining games left, only UMass will really help them.

Agreed....at this point winning the CAA could put the Tigers in a solid position for the NCAA tournament. They lose and they could easily be bubble out....the only thing worse...play-in games.

Every year, there are 50+ teams that would love to be in the play-in game. Just saying.

[foreverlax]

Towson - Not much margin for error left. I think they still could get an at-large bid if they win out and lose in the CAA tournament, but it will be close. Of the remaining games left, only UMass will really help them.

Agreed....at this point winning the CAA could put the Tigers in a solid position for the NCAA tournament. They lose and they could easily be bubble out....the only thing worse...play-in games.

Every year, there are 50+ teams that would love to be in the play-in game. Just saying.

For sure. Everyone wants their ticket punched.

Never liked how NCAA seems to ignore the play-in games as "almost in the tournament".

[Homer]

Hawkeye, thanks for doing this, looks clear and well thought out. Here's my complementary take on where the field would stand if selection happened today.

Top 7 resumes look to have separated themselves from the rest of the field. That's OSU, PSU, Yale, Virginia, Cuse, Duke, and Maryland. You can justify putting those seven in virtually any order you want. The point is that whoever you put last in that group is almost certainly going to be ahead of the next-best, which will be one of these:

Loyola 6-2 / SOS 13 / 3 QW: 3, 14, 20 / 2 L: 5, 12
Notre Dame 4-3 / SOS 1 / 2 QW: 4, 15 / 3 L: 2, 3, 30
Penn 4-3 / SOS 2 / 2 QW: 11, 13 / 3 L: 4, 5, 8
Cornell 5-3 / SOS 7 / 3 QW: 12, 17, 19 / 3 L: 1, 8, 9
Denver 5-3 / SOS 3 / 1 QW: 12 / 3 L: 5, 6, 29
Towson 5-3 / SOS 9 / 2 QW: 10, 14 / 3 L: 5, 11, 15

This is a very tightly bunched group, but I think Loyola comes out the best. SOS is marginally the weakest, but still not bad, and 3 QWs including a top 5, with no bad losses, is pretty good. Towson has the H2H win over Loyola, but H2H only matters when teams are getting directly compared, and right now there are several resumes potentially separating the Tigers and Hounds. Even in a direct comparison, I still think Loyola is ahead based mainly on the high-end UVa win and lack of a 3rd loss.

I can't really see ND ahead of Loyola, in spite of the #1 SOS, largely because of that 30+ shiner in the loss column. Is Richmond a bad team? Of course not, everybody knows that. But does dropping those "trap" games matter for selection and seeding? You bet it does, hugely, every year.

I see that pecking order, then, as:

Loyola

Notre Dame, Penn, Cornell, in some order

Denver, clearly behind those 3 due to just one QW + "bad" loss + H2H loss to ND

Towson, behind Denver due to H2H loss at home


So that would conceivably leave us here, if everything were neat and tidy with AQ's:

Ohio State (B1G)
Yale (Ivy)
Loyola (Patriot)
Denver (Big East)
Towson (CAA)
Hobart (NEC)
Richmond (SoCon)
Vermont (AmE)
Siena (MAAC)

Penn State
Virginia
Syracuse
Duke
Maryland
Notre Dame
Penn
Cornell

Bolded teams get in no matter what, and replace one of the italicized teams if they lose to a team not listed in the conference tournament. The other AQ's look like one-bid conferences as of this moment.

[Dunker]

What is Denver's bad loss, last night at Princeton or UNC, or both? Tierney has never had a bad loss in his previous 9 years at DU. Princeton will sneak into the top 20 by winning 3 of 4 remaining Ivy games which will include a win over Penn or Cornell. Thus not a bad loss. UNC might be is bad loss. He'll complain publically how he thinks his team deserves a bid even if they lose in BET conference final assuming they run the table prior to that..

[FannOLax]

Princeton will sneak into the top 20 by winning 3 of 4 remaining Ivy games which will include a win over Penn or Cornell...

Princeton has already lost to Penn...

[wgdsr]

Towson - Not much margin for error left. I think they still could get an at-large bid if they win out and lose in the CAA tournament, but it will be close. Of the remaining games left, only UMass will really help them.

Agreed....at this point winning the CAA could put the Tigers in a solid position for the NCAA tournament. They lose and they could easily be bubble out....the only thing worse...play-in games.

Every year, there are 50+ teams that would love to be in the play-in game. Just saying.

For sure. Everyone wants their ticket punched.

Never liked how NCAA seems to ignore the play-in games as "almost in the tournament".

not that it makes it right, but they do it because of the unwritten rule that approx 20+% of the teams should be allowed in the tournament, and the written rule that you have to have as many at larges as auto bids.
and in lacrosse's specific case, it manifests because so many conferences are made up of the bare minimum or just over of 6 team leagues.

if you get in from a usually small conference auto bid, with the worst couple rpis of invites... you should be able to take a little semantics.

[SCLaxAttack]

[quote=foreverlax post_id=35854 time=<a href="tel:1553625951">1553625951</a> user_id=270]
[quote=oldbartman post_id=35851 time=<a href="tel:1553625623">1553625623</a> user_id=309]
[quote=foreverlax post_id=35827 time=<a href="tel:1553621002">1553621002</a> user_id=270]

Towson - Not much margin for error left. I think they still could get an at-large bid if they win out and lose in the CAA tournament, but it will be close. Of the remaining games left, only UMass will really help them.

Agreed....at this point winning the CAA could put the Tigers in a solid position for the NCAA tournament. They lose and they could easily be bubble out....the only thing worse...play-in games.

Every year, there are 50+ teams that would love to be in the play-in game. Just saying.
[/quote]

For sure. Everyone wants their ticket punched.

Never liked how NCAA seems to ignore the play-in games as "almost in the tournament".
[/quote]not that it makes it right, but they do it because of the unwritten rule that approx 20+% of the teams should be allowed in the tournament, and the written rule that you have to have as many at larges as auto bids.
and in lacrosse's specific case, it manifests because so many conferences are made up of the bare minimum or just over of 6 team leagues.

if you get in from a usually small conference auto bid, with the worst couple rpis of invites... you should be able to take a little semantics.
[/quote]

It’s also semantics, but don’t lump the low rip entrants in as usually from the conferences with a bare minimum of teams. The NEC and MAAC have >= the largest number of teams in their conferences save the Patriot.

[wgdsr]

Towson - Not much margin for error left. I think they still could get an at-large bid if they win out and lose in the CAA tournament, but it will be close. Of the remaining games left, only UMass will really help them.

Agreed....at this point winning the CAA could put the Tigers in a solid position for the NCAA tournament. They lose and they could easily be bubble out....the only thing worse...play-in games.

Every year, there are 50+ teams that would love to be in the play-in game. Just saying.

For sure. Everyone wants their ticket punched.

Never liked how NCAA seems to ignore the play-in games as "almost in the tournament".

not that it makes it right, but they do it because of the unwritten rule that approx 20+% of the teams should be allowed in the tournament, and the written rule that you have to have as many at larges as auto bids.
and in lacrosse's specific case, it manifests because so many conferences are made up of the bare minimum or just over of 6 team leagues.

if you get in from a usually small conference auto bid, with the worst couple rpis of invites... you should be able to take a little semantics.

It’s also semantics, but don’t lump the low rip entrants in as usually from the conferences with a bare minimum of teams. The NEC and MAAC have >= the largest number of teams in their conferences save the Patriot.

i didn't think that was unnecessarily harsh.
and the nec has 7 (just over the minimum) and the maac 8(with new entrant st bonnies). small conferences in general for lacrosse was the point, relative to a number of other sports (not all) being more specific, who carry 10 to 16 team leagues.

[ABV 8.3%]

Towson - Not much margin for error left. I think they still could get an at-large bid if they win out and lose in the CAA tournament, but it will be close. Of the remaining games left, only UMass will really help them.

Agreed....at this point winning the CAA could put the Tigers in a solid position for the NCAA tournament. They lose and they could easily be bubble out....the only thing worse...play-in games.

Every year, there are 50+ teams that would love to be in the play-in game. Just saying.

For sure. Everyone wants their ticket punched.

Never liked how NCAA seems to ignore the play-in games as "almost in the tournament".

not that it makes it right, but they do it because of the unwritten rule that approx 20+% of the teams should be allowed in the tournament, and the written rule that you have to have as many at larges as auto bids.
and in lacrosse's specific case, it manifests because so many conferences are made up of the bare minimum or just over of 6 team leagues.

if you get in from a usually small conference auto bid, with the worst couple rpis of invites... you should be able to take a little semantics.

Loved how the 4 AQ winners had to duke it out in a mid week game, a few years ago, just to put the ncaa mind at ease. While all 8 at larges get more days to prepare. Will this same format re-appear if the PAC-10 really happens?