NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread

[PizzaSnake]

Did Denver not fckup? what makes them any different?

Don’t care about Denver.

so why did you reply to a post talking about them?

Was remarking on Penn’s performance, which was the comparative.

I’ll be sure to check with you re my next posting.

[jrn19]

Did Denver not fckup? what makes them any different?

Don’t care about Denver.

so why did you reply to a post talking about them?

Was remarking on Penn’s performance, which was the comparative.

I’ll be sure to check with you re my next posting.

Okay but if we're comparing Penn and Denver, why does Denver deserve to get in over Penn? Did Denver not fckup in comparison to Penn? Still waiting on that

[Bluecollar]

My post was commenting on the “as of today” ranking. As of today, Penn ought to be higher than Denver. But these teams control their own destiny. No telling what happens this week. Lots to be decided this week in the league tourneys.

[MoralTerpitude]

Penn almost certainly needs to beat Princeton to get in as an AL, due to Princeton's low RPI. Guessing Cornell lost a little bit of ground in the RPI despite their win, because of Princeton's lower RPI.

Now if Penn beats Princeton and faces Cornell in the finals, I would guess they get in regardless of the outcome. I'd also guess that Yale is in the same boat in the semis.

Say that scenario plays out, and ND beats UNC. Say AQs are Penn State, Cornell, and Georgetown. ALs would likely be:
UVa, Duke, ND, Maryland, Penn State, Yale, Penn, and the winner of the Denver/Villanova BE semi.

Much more clear-cut than last year.

[PizzaSnake]

Penn almost certainly needs to beat Princeton to get in as an AL, due to Princeton's low RPI. Guessing Cornell lost a little bit of ground in the RPI despite their win, because of Princeton's lower RPI.

Now if Penn beats Princeton and faces Cornell in the finals, I would guess they get in regardless of the outcome. I'd also guess that Yale is in the same boat in the semis.

Say that scenario plays out, and ND beats UNC. Say AQs are Penn State, Cornell, and Georgetown. ALs would likely be:
UVa, Duke, ND, Maryland, Penn State, Yale, Penn, and the winner of the Denver/Villanova BE semi.

Much more clear-cut than last year.

Yup. And my point in proceeding texts is that they, Penn, just need to win. Enough of the comparative calculus and whingeing in the event they lose to Princeton. Having said that, beating Princeton again will be a challenge if Penn continues its lackluster performance of basic lacrosse fundamentals like catching and throwing and gbs. In general, player spacing in the offensive sets is ridiculous. Extremely long passes, lack of player movement off-ball. I see a tremendous number of "forced" passes to players who are not in a good position to receive the pass. If the pass is errant, high, low or on the ground, it's a turnover. I question what the hlel the coaching staff is doing. I guess the idea of NOT passing to the inside hand has been abandoned. Tighten up!!

Penn has good players, but they haven't been playing at a high level consistently. Play time is over. Do or do not.

[ICGrad]

I'd also guess that Yale is in the same boat in the semis.

Say AQs are Penn State, Cornell, and Georgetown. ALs would likely be:
UVa, Duke, ND, Maryland, Penn State, Yale, Penn, and the winner of the Denver/Villanova BE semi.

Much more clear-cut than last year.

If Yale is in the same boat in the semis, then I assume you mean they need to win. Yale can't win with Cornell getting the AQ; if Cornell gets the AQ, it means they beat Yale. Which, if I'm interpreting your "Yale is in the same boat..." comment correctly, means Yale would be out (according to you).

Me, despite the midseason blowouts Yale suffered at the hands of Cornell and Princeton, I don't think that Yale is in the same boat as Penn. I think they still have a good path the the NCAAs even with a loss to Cornell. But I'm sure they would feel a whole lot better heading into selection Sunday if the beat Cornell.

I will add (agreeing with Pizzasnake here, not arguing with MT's position): If Penn loses to Princeton to finish 7-6, I don't feel they deserve an NCAA bid, for the same reasons Hopkins et al didn't deserve binds in years they finished 8-7 and 8-6. At the very least, I don't feel they should be complaining if they don't get a bid. Beat Brown, beat Villanova...we're not having this discussion. But simply having a tough schedule and finishing over .500 shouldn't qualify you for the tourney...

[HopFan16]

- Yale is pretty much in at this point. They have the highest RPI of the bubble teams and no bad losses. It's not a super impressive resume, but this year that should get it done. Losing to Cornell won't hurt much.

- My guess is winner of the Denver-Villanova Big East semi-final game is in, loser is out. Denver winning would solidify the higher RPI and give them two H2H wins over Nova. That feels insurmountable to me even though Nova has those two top 10 wins. Denver would also have four total top 20 wins to Nova's two. The resumes are similar enough where they'd give the nod to the team with multiple head-to-head wins. But Nova winning would split the series one apiece and then that's where I think Nova's higher end wins over PSU and Penn would get them in. It'd neutralize Denver's big advantage. Long story short, I don't want to be the loser of this game. Winner will feel very good about their chances.

- Loser of Denver-Nova could still maybe get in over Penn, if Penn loses to Princeton. It'd be close. But I still might go with Penn even though the committee had Denver in over them as of their most recent ranking.

- UNC beating Notre Dame is the last chance for another team to crash this party of four. Otherwise it'll be three of Yale-Penn-Denver-Nova getting in. Kind of a boring bubble this year. Don't expect the chaos of 2022.

[MoralTerpitude]

I'd also guess that Yale is in the same boat in the semis.

Say AQs are Penn State, Cornell, and Georgetown. ALs would likely be:
UVa, Duke, ND, Maryland, Penn State, Yale, Penn, and the winner of the Denver/Villanova BE semi.

Much more clear-cut than last year.

If Yale is in the same boat in the semis, then I assume you mean they need to win. Yale can't win with Cornell getting the AQ; if Cornell gets the AQ, it means they beat Yale. Which, if I'm interpreting your "Yale is in the same boat..." comment correctly, means Yale would be out (according to you).

Yeah - I totally mis-stated that - meant that a game against Cornell was enough to get either Yale or Penn in. Yale is playing Cornell in the semis, so a loss to Cornell wouldn’t hurt Yale’s RPI. Penn would need to beat Princeton to earn a game against Cornell… at which point a loss doesn’t hurt their RPI. And actually, if they beat Princeton and face Yale, a loss to Yale would probably also be enough to get them an AL.

[MoralTerpitude]

And Quint actually agrees with us. That’s how straightforward tourney selections will be this year.

[jrn19]

Go look at Penn and Cornell's resumes. They're basically identical.

Cornell
RPI: 8
SOS: 22
T5: 0-1
T10: 2-1
T20: 3-2
21+: 8-1

Penn
RPI: 10
SOS: 8
T5: 0-2
T10: 2-3
T20: 3-4
21+: 4-1

Cornell's best wins: #9 Yale, #10 Penn, #17 Princeton

Penn's best wins: #7 Georgetown, #9 Yale, #17 Princeton

Cornell's bad loss: #33 Harvard

Penn's bad loss: #31 Brown

The only tangible difference here is that Cornell won H2H. Which is enough for Cornell to be ahead of Penn in the pecking order for sure. But it's not so significant that Cornell would be in the tournament as a seed (meaning they're a lock) and Penn would be out of the tournament. I really don't understand the argument for Penn to be behind Yale or Denver tbh.

Yale has no Top 10 wins, the same number of Top 20 wins AND lost the H2H to Penn. Denver has no Top 10 wins, same # of Top 20 wins, is behind Penn in RPI, AND also has a bad loss. Villanova you could make the argument for based on H2H and having a Top 5 win, but they're behind in RPI and have 1 fewer Top 20 win.

Considering Penn has 2 more Top 10 wins and the H2H over Georgetown you could make a good argument for them getting the #8 seed over them even though that could be the 8-9 game either way.

If we assume the committee rankings wind up being reflective of what the order actually is, and I think someone posted above there's evidence there usually isn't correlation there, I think their order is probably Yale-Denver-Penn. They just have the wrong order of teams there. The Villanova-Denver loser is for sure out IMO. The winner + Penn + Yale are all likely in regardless of their results unless we get a Carolina win over ND + Providence bid steal + maybe Michigan beating Penn State gets them an argument since they would have two Top 10 wins. Of course Michigan winning B1G gets them AQ.

[laxreference]

Go look at Penn and Cornell's resumes. They're basically identical.

Cornell
RPI: 8
SOS: 22
T5: 0-1
T10: 2-1
T20: 3-2
21+: 8-1

Penn
RPI: 10
SOS: 8
T5: 0-2
T10: 2-3
T20: 3-4
21+: 4-1

Cornell's best wins: #9 Yale, #10 Penn, #17 Princeton

Penn's best wins: #7 Georgetown, #9 Yale, #17 Princeton

Cornell's bad loss: #33 Harvard

Penn's bad loss: #31 Brown

The only tangible difference here is that Cornell won H2H. Which is enough for Cornell to be ahead of Penn in the pecking order for sure. But it's not so significant that Cornell would be in the tournament as a seed (meaning they're a lock) and Penn would be out of the tournament. I really don't understand the argument for Penn to be behind Yale or Denver tbh.

Yale has no Top 10 wins, the same number of Top 20 wins AND lost the H2H to Penn. Denver has no Top 10 wins, same # of Top 20 wins, is behind Penn in RPI, AND also has a bad loss. Villanova you could make the argument for based on H2H and having a Top 5 win, but they're behind in RPI and have 1 fewer Top 20 win.

Considering Penn has 2 more Top 10 wins and the H2H over Georgetown you could make a good argument for them getting the #8 seed over them even though that could be the 8-9 game either way.

If we assume the committee rankings wind up being reflective of what the order actually is, and I think someone posted above there's evidence there usually isn't correlation there, I think their order is probably Yale-Denver-Penn. They just have the wrong order of teams there. The Villanova-Denver loser is for sure out IMO. The winner + Penn + Yale are all likely in regardless of their results unless we get a Carolina win over ND + Providence bid steal + maybe Michigan beating Penn State gets them an argument since they would have two Top 10 wins. Of course Michigan winning B1G gets them AQ.

Penn has lost 5 games and Cornell has lost 2. I don't think they are identical at all. It's not just about the best wins and worst losses.

[ICGrad]

Penn has lost 5 games and Cornell has lost 2. I don't think they are identical at all. It's not just about the best wins and worst losses.

Thank you.

There's a world of difference between 10-3 and 7-6 (assuming each team lost their first-round Ivy game).

[jrn19]

Wins and losses record is not a selection criteria. Having 6 losses compared to 2 or 10 wins compared to 7 is not a part of the criteria. See: all the times a team got in at 8-7. Whether this is a good thing or not or what the criteria should be is immaterial. There is not "a world of difference" between 10-2 and 7-6 per the selection criteria. Nowhere in there is that a determining factor per the criteria.

If there was, 15-0 UMass would not have been seeded #6 in 2012 while 11-5 Virginia got seeded #5.

[PizzaSnake]

And Quint actually agrees with us. That’s how straightforward tourney selections will be this year.

Oh, fcuk Quint. He’s a whingeing beatch.

[MoralTerpitude]

A very low seed (i.e. 7 or 8) for a team with only two losses, and decisive wins against the second and third best Ivies, seems low. But win margin is not part of the “official” criteria, right? That being said, I’m betting the committee will take it into consideration when seeding is discussed, especially if Cornell makes the ILT finals.

[jrn19]

Plenty of examples with teams with few losses being seeded down the seed line.

Rutgers had 3 losses last year and was the 6

Loyola was 12-3 in 2018 and the 6

Penn State was 12-3 in 2017 and the 6 while Notre Dame was 8-5 and the 4. Perhaps most infamously Albany was 14-2 and the 8

A 15-1 Loyola team was seeded 2 slots behind 3 and 4 loss Duke and Cuse in 2014

Aforementioned UMass 2012

2011 Denver was 13-2 and seeded 6th. A 12-5 Duke team they beat was seeded 1 spot ahead of them.

Endless examples. Ivy is 3rd best conference this year. If Cornell is seeded 7th it'd be behind 6 teams from the 2 best conferences. Wouldn't be a shock.

[laf]

http://www.laxmath.com/men1.pdf

Probable 8 seeds and final 3 at-large: Penn, Yale and Denver.

[CU77]

Hey laf, IIRC, you used to cut the SOS rank in half before adding it to the other 2; why the change?

Also, how are you computing SOS? Your rankings differ from lacrossereference's, which uses the average RPI of the best 10 opponents as SOS:

https://pro.lacrossereference.com/rpi-d ... ifospeivmd

[10stone5]

I just can’t see Cornell with an SoS in the 30’s.

I don’t see any teams on Cornell’s schedule who would drag that team down that far,
teams that are in the high 20s, mid-30s are, say, Patriot League teams where Holy Cross and Colgate would drag down a Patriot team’s SoS.

[CU88a]

http://www.laxmath.com/men1.pdf

Probable 8 seeds and final 3 at-large: Penn, Yale and Denver.

SOS is wacked.

Massy has Cornell SOS at 17

https://masseyratings.com/clax/ncaa-d1/ratings