NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread

[MoralTerpitude]

I made the mistake of bringing up the the potential for Maryland to not make the tournament if they had lost to UVa... and of course accidentally threadjacked the Maryland 2023 thread.

Except for the Terps win over UVa, I think the B1G OOC this year profiles pretty close to the ACC last year. With it, I do believe teams like JHU, Ohio State, and possibly even Rutgers have a lot of work to do to get into the tournament. I think it's even likely that the B1G gets only three bids.

Let's assume Rutgers, Cornell, Villanova, and Army win their conference tournaments, based on current records. If the selection show were today, I believe the following teams would be at-larges:
UVa, Duke, Notre Dame, Penn State, Maryland, Yale, Loyola and... probably UNC, based on the strength of their win over Hopkins.

4 ACC
3 B1G
2 Patriot
2 Ivy League
1 Big East

EDIT: I could see Jax being the final at-large if Utah or AF wins the ASUN, based on their win over Duke.

[wgdsr]

has the b1g ever gotten more than 3 bids?

[wgdsr]

Based on OOC wins, Maryland and Penn State have the best shot at making it in. Rutgers’ best win is against Loyola. Hopkins’ best win is against Georgetown. Michigan’s best win is probably Harvard. OSU’s best win is probably UNC.

This was argued ad nauseum in the run-up to the selection show last year. QWF is a thing, and it’s the reason Duke didn’t make it even though they were ranked 8th in the RPI IIRC.

Going to start another thread… and give this thread back to Terps talk.

nd was #6 qwf and # 3 sos. and had 2 top 10 wins vs others not having any. you're chasing your tail to try to figure it out (duke was #7 rpi). it's about the committee.

Not really trying to figure it out, just trying to remember the methodology. I started the other thread. I do not recall ND having #6 QWF... is that ranking still available?

@ laxnumbers.com
also maybe laxreference?

best win singular is just one metric. there is no methodology. there is criteria that's supposed to be used (in whatever weights). there is a question about whether it is, and/or how it is.

[jrn19]

2017 Big Ten got 4 and all got home games; Maryland, Ohio State, Hopkins, Penn State. I don't think they all get home games, but if I had to put $ down on a number they'd get right now I'd say 4.

EDIT: talking total bids here, not at-larges, just for clarification

[Essexfenwick]

The B1G with its massive budgets has the edge going forward

It’s not fair but it’s overwhelming

[10stone5]

My At Large mix is the same, unless something dramatic happens.

3 to 4 ACCs
2 B1Gs
2 Ivies

So that’s 7 to 8.

One At Large possibly up for grabs, potentially going to one
of the Big East teams.

[CU77]

laf's analysis:

https://laxmath.com/men/odds001_print.php

Ignore the 3 columns "based on PR". (This is laf's power rating, completely irrelevant for NCAA selection.) The next-to-last column "Tot" is a very rough measure of the overall selection criteria; lower is better.

[wgdsr]

The B1G with its massive budgets has the edge going forward

It’s not fair but it’s overwhelming

i don't even know what this means. are u saying because football brings in a lot of money to each school, that a lacrosse committee will give them bids?

[MoralTerpitude]

2017 Big Ten got 4 and all got home games; Maryland, Ohio State, Hopkins, Penn State. I don't think they all get home games, but if I had to put $ down on a number they'd get right now I'd say 4.

EDIT: talking total bids here, not at-larges, just for clarification

Which four teams?

[wgdsr]

My At Large mix is the same, unless something dramatic happens.

3 to 4 ACCs
2 B1Gs
2 Ivies

So that’s 7 to 8.

One At Large possibly up for grabs, potentially going to one
of the Big East teams.

it'll be interesting as usual.
ooc losses:
acc - 6 (fewest # of teams)
b1g - 15
ivy - 14 (fewer games)
big east - 22 (st johns kryptonite)

once the conference season starts, most ooc is done and you're locked in with a lot of 1 w/ 1 loss for those most intertwined with your schedule. can marquette win the b1g? i kid.

[lorin]

My At Large mix is the same, unless something dramatic happens.

3 to 4 ACCs
2 B1Gs
2 Ivies

So that’s 7 to 8.

One At Large possibly up for grabs, potentially going to one
of the Big East teams.

it'll be interesting as usual.
ooc losses:
acc - 6 (fewest # of teams)
b1g - 15
ivy - 14 (fewer games)
big east - 22 (st johns kryptonite)

once the conference season starts, most ooc is done and you're locked in with a lot of 1 w/ 1 loss for those most intertwined with your schedule. can marquette win the b1g? i kid.

Cuse wins one ACC game and they will be in, LMAO

[suitcase10]

Decent chance Ivy gets one team only. Yale/ Cornell loses
to the wrong IVY teams and their resumes will not look great IMO

[jrn19]

2017 Big Ten got 4 and all got home games; Maryland, Ohio State, Hopkins, Penn State. I don't think they all get home games, but if I had to put $ down on a number they'd get right now I'd say 4.

EDIT: talking total bids here, not at-larges, just for clarification

Which four teams?

Maryland, Rutgers, Hopkins, Penn State. But whoever finishes 3-2 in conference or better has a good shot at it. If Ohio State can come back and do that they’ll likely but I’d be surprised with how awful they’ve looked of late.

[jhu06]

ivy went 1-10 against the big ten/acc. Should be a one bid conference, maybe 2 at best. UNC has only the win against hopkins and 3 tough games against und and uva left. It's wide open.

[Farfromgeneva]

2017 Big Ten got 4 and all got home games; Maryland, Ohio State, Hopkins, Penn State. I don't think they all get home games, but if I had to put $ down on a number they'd get right now I'd say 4.

EDIT: talking total bids here, not at-larges, just for clarification

Which four teams?

Maryland, Rutgers, Hopkins, Penn State. But whoever finishes 3-2 in conference or better has a good shot at it. If Ohio State can come back and do that they’ll likely but I’d be surprised with how awful they’ve looked of late.

OSU may come in last in the BigTen this year.

Want to crush Tambroni & Breschi then I think that finals Myers made in the first Big Ten season is looking more distant by the week. He seems to botch most of the transfers he takes in as well.

[rolldodge]

ivy went 1-10 against the big ten/acc. Should be a one bid conference, maybe 2 at best. UNC has only the win against hopkins and 3 tough games against und and uva left. It's wide open.

Cornell and Yale currently are #3 and #4 in RPI. At this point, I'd bet on at least 2 bids from the Ivy.

[jrn19]

2017 Big Ten got 4 and all got home games; Maryland, Ohio State, Hopkins, Penn State. I don't think they all get home games, but if I had to put $ down on a number they'd get right now I'd say 4.

EDIT: talking total bids here, not at-larges, just for clarification

Which four teams?

Maryland, Rutgers, Hopkins, Penn State. But whoever finishes 3-2 in conference or better has a good shot at it. If Ohio State can come back and do that they’ll likely but I’d be surprised with how awful they’ve looked of late.

OSU may come in last in the BigTen this year.

Want to crush Tambroni & Breschi then I think that finals Myers made in the first Big Ten season is looking more distant by the week. He seems to botch most of the transfers he takes in as well.

He deserves as much if not more criticism than any coach at a Top 20/P3 job. Something just seems wrong in the water there. They don’t have an identity, one year the offense is up and defense is down, always rumblings about stuff with locker room, their offense never seems to be as good as it should be with talent they have. Considering his in with Team USA you’d expect them to recruit more of those guys as well. It’s just not good.

[jrn19]

Ivy will get 1 at large for sure. But after that I’m not sure. Cornell and Yale are ranked high in the RPI now but Penn is 13th, Dartmouth is 22nd, Harvard is 26th, Princeton is 30th, Brown is 36th. That’s an average of 19.

Compare this to Big Ten or ACC, whose average is 11 and 12. ACC has 4 teams in Top 13 and Big Ten has every team in the Top 20.

The league won’t benefit from playing or beating each other to nearly the same degree they did last year.

[kramerica.inc]

2017 Big Ten got 4 and all got home games; Maryland, Ohio State, Hopkins, Penn State. I don't think they all get home games, but if I had to put $ down on a number they'd get right now I'd say 4.

EDIT: talking total bids here, not at-larges, just for clarification

Which four teams?

Maryland, Rutgers, Hopkins, Penn State. But whoever finishes 3-2 in conference or better has a good shot at it. If Ohio State can come back and do that they’ll likely but I’d be surprised with how awful they’ve looked of late.

OSU may come in last in the BigTen this year.

Want to crush Tambroni & Breschi then I think that finals Myers made in the first Big Ten season is looking more distant by the week. He seems to botch most of the transfers he takes in as well.

He deserves as much if not more criticism than any coach at a Top 20/P3 job. Something just seems wrong in the water there. They don’t have an identity, one year the offense is up and defense is down, always rumblings about stuff with locker room, their offense never seems to be as good as it should be with talent they have. Considering his in with Team USA you’d expect them to recruit more of those guys as well. It’s just not good.

OSU fans were calling for his head a few years ago. That seemed to subside.
But there has never been a sense of satisfaction in their coach.
Just 4 NCAA playoff appearances in 14 years probably looms larger than the one appearance in the finals.

[MoralTerpitude]

Ivy will get 1 at large for sure. But after that I’m not sure. Cornell and Yale are ranked high in the RPI now but Penn is 13th, Dartmouth is 22nd, Harvard is 26th, Princeton is 30th, Brown is 36th. That’s an average of 19.

Compare this to Big Ten or ACC, whose average is 11 and 12. ACC has 4 teams in Top 13 and Big Ten has every team in the Top 20.

The league won’t benefit from playing or beating each other to nearly the same degree they did last year.

I think the issue with four at-large Big Ten teams is that three at-larges are almost certainly going to UVa, Notre Dame, and Duke. That means three Big Ten teams are vying for five spots. Let’s say two are locked up by Maryland and either Penn State or Hopkins. Let’s also say Ohio State and Michigan are unlikely to make it. Of the last three AL’s:

-Loyola or Army likely take the one of those spots at this moment. Army has beaten Rutgers and Loyola has beaten Maryland and Hopkins. So the Patriot’s H2H against the Big Ten would make it tough for the committee to drop either one of those teams in favor of a B1G team.

-North Carolina has a H2H win against Hopkins. If they can win a game against either Virginia or Notre Dame, they have a great shot at making the tournament.

-Yale has two quality losses, to Penn State and Cornell. If they beat BostonU, and win most of their Ivy games, they are the second Ivy in.

-This is ignoring teams like Jacksonville (who beat Duke) or Villanova (who beat Penn State and Penn) possibly getting in if they don’t with the ASun and Big East respectively. Denver also has a pretty decent resume.

I think the B1G could possibly get a fourth team in if both Penn State and Hopkins beat Maryland. Both of those games are in College Park. Absent that, or a second-tier B1G winning the B1G tournament, there don’t seem to be alot of ways a fourth B1G gets in.