All things CoronaVirus

[MDlaxfan76]

trying to play a little devil's advocate here again...
most involved globally are trying to play hands without knowing their cards.
what is the endgame? least covid related deaths? least combo of covid related medical deaths and economic damage? (read in that the mental, physical, social damage and all the things that come with that)

it would seem barring a hail mary we are very early innings. maybe the first inning.
we need time until game can be won. a vaccine.... what if there is no vaccine? this is a novel, 100 year flood virus -- animal to human, high transmissability... high case fatality.... i have tremendous faith in biotech, but it's also very possible an effective vaccine is not found.
major prominent left newscasts last night had several scientists say herd immunity may be the only way out other than social distancing for years... years. what would that do to society? look what it's done so far, and we haven't seen nothing if things get amplified.

tests rolled out have been a cluster in preparation, awareness, efficiency, supplies, efficacy, accuracy, coordination, reagents and supplies for the supplies...
now it's about antibody tests. 100s of millions? what if immunity isn't real with this?
hail mary on a treatment. or that immunity works and maybe many more people have been exposed than we think. science nowadays is amazing. i believe they'll figure it out.

ultimately, i have faith in our people. long term. get the transmission rate under 1 with a functioning society. somehow.

I was thinking of posting much the same.

This is very, very early innings...if not just inning one.
Many more 'innings' to come.
Waves of transmission until vaccine or herd, or combo.

Staying with the analogy, if just the first inning, we hit a long foul ball with the China 'travel ban'. It was already here and we let another 40,000 in thereafter, so it looked great until it curved foul. Hard hit ball. In the meantime, while we were admiring the long foul ball and congratulating ourselves, the next pitch (6 weeks lost) went dead center of the plate and we didn't even swing. Strike 2. When we picked up our head we denied the strike had happened, stepped out of the box, tramped around flexing our muscles, no problem we get another pitch, and then we hit two more foul balls, argued some more with the umpires, and then got another pitch down the middle...and we're about to whiff. Strike 3 coming.

No problem, there will be more innings of play.
With people dying, health system on edge of breakdown, food system in danger.

I posted yesterday about the recommendations soon coming from Dr Osterholm. It's going to involve young people working, the rest of us remaining in place, ramped up testing (but will not have enough for some time). Lots of physical distancing. Some will die, but not overwhelming health system. But economy will at least turn.

He says that before vaccine is effective and widely distributed, 50% of Americans will be infected, every community in every state. 800K + will die in multiple waves.

Sure hope that's wrong.

Dr Osterholm is a very well respected opinion but he's discounting all human ingenuity/action that's currently taking else. Like anything else Dr Osterholm is making a prediction based on his own "Model". Once again 800,000 dead is more than likely the worst case scenario that does not account for effective therapeutics (we are far far closer to this than a vaccine) Improved Human behavior, ramped up testing (Which despite everybody pointing out, continues to ramp up every day, albeit not yet at the rate we need it to yet) and agressive measures via targeted isolation and contact tracing. The final step is the Vaccine, and I have news for everybody, what makes you think there aren't going to be 25-30% of America that refuses to get vaccinated? Effective Treatments are what we need, and there are massive strides made everyday in the many hospitals across the US in this regard, despite what the media chooses to try and get you to believe (most know better than to believe it). We will get through this, we are far to advanced a civilization not to, and that's where the models fall short to a degree.

Stay Safe,
Joe

His range is 800k-1.6million.

I agree that it's very possible that he's wrong, that we will take the necessary steps, invent therapies, vaccines, ramp the testing sufficiently, etc etc.

But his argument is that we need to address the reality of the economy eventually needing to continue and the need therefore for us to come to grips with how we're going to accomplish that, the costs involved. What we cannot afford is for breakdown of the health system and food system.

I'd have a lot more confidence that we can choke the virus sufficiently and that we can get testing to the point that contact tracing can continue to choke it off, if I saw any evidence of the federal leadership to do so.

Therapies and vaccines should come, eventually. But if we don't get the testing in place, we won't be able to keep this choked off...assuming we have the will to choke it off in the first place.

South Dakota being a case in point. This is coming everywhere. Dry tinder.

[Peter Brown]

A final antidote is to tune out the negative nabobs of the media and Left who have a vested interest in making you hysterical; they are selling you tickets to their carnival, making dishonest money along the way, a non-essential pursuit if there ever was one.

i just can't WAIT for the next Dem administration so we can see all the measured, reasonable, non-hysterical posts being made by PB, 6ft, t37, ya, C&S and ALL our MOST reasoned, calm, positive friends on the Right. You know, all in support of "just giving the guy a chance", and "wanting whats good for the country" ... yeah, that...

..

Did this website or the previous one (Laxpower) have a thread of over 400+ pages called 'Orange Obama" or something along those lines, during the Obama reign?

That should answer who is sane and who should check into the local psychiatric ward.

[Nigel]

Humor break.

[Brooklyn]

Yep. 2009-2010. Thanks.

DocB

While the outbreak was in 2009, its origin goes back to 2005:


''The cases of 2009 H1N1 flu in California occurred in the context of sporadic reports of human infection with North American-lineage swine influenza viruses in the United States, most often associated with close contact with infected pigs. (During December 2005 – January 2009, 12 cases of human infection with swine influenza were reported; five of these 12 cases occurred in patients who had direct exposure to pigs, six patients reported being near pigs, and the source of infection in one case was unknown). ''


https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/cdcresponse.htm

The Bush regime had 5 years in which to prevent the outbreak but did nothing. Instead, the regime was preoccupied with generating war profits from its imperialist wars on Iraq and Afghanistan.

[Brooklyn]

Did this website or the previous one (Laxpower) have a thread of over 400+ pages called 'Orange Obama" or something along those lines, during the Obama reign?

That should answer who is sane and who should check into the local psychiatric ward.

In LP the delusional righties blamed Obama for everything under the sun including the Black Plague and the Fall in the Garden of Eden. Before that, they blamed Clinton for everything that happened under Bush_Stupid. And yes, anyone who succumbs to that kind of lunacy belongs in a psycho ward.

[dislaxxic]

Did this website or the previous one (Laxpower) have a thread of over 400+ pages called 'Orange Obama" or something along those lines, during the Obama reign?

Good lord...this really IS clueless!

..

[cradleandshoot]

A final antidote is to tune out the negative nabobs of the media and Left who have a vested interest in making you hysterical; they are selling you tickets to their carnival, making dishonest money along the way, a non-essential pursuit if there ever was one.

i just can't WAIT for the next Dem administration so we can see all the measured, reasonable, non-hysterical posts being made by PB, 6ft, t37, ya, C&S and ALL our MOST reasoned, calm, positive friends on the Right. You know, all in support of "just giving the guy a chance", and "wanting whats good for the country" ... yeah, that...

..

Why are you bundling me in your little tirade? i despise democrats and republicans alike. To be honest with you dis you will never be the poster child for measured, reasonable and non hysterical anything. Your like me, just another jerk looking at our screwed up country from their own perspective. In the words of inspector Callaghan, opinions are like assholes, everybody has one and everybody thinks the others guys stinks.

[jhu72]

Another thumbs down for Dr. Trump's snake oil.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Another thumbs down for Dr. Trump's snake oil.

At least Trump is trying.

[seacoaster]

What's a couple of weeks, or six weeks, of delay in getting in front of a viral epidemic?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/opin ... ncing.html

During disease outbreaks, epidemiologists agonize about the timing and extent of interventions like social distancing to slow the spread. Their instincts are almost always to move sooner rather than later, because preventing new infections as early as possible can disrupt chains of transmission and save many lives. Our experience with Covid-19 makes that clear.

[Active Graph Here] -- showing intervention by weeks, and the number of fewer deaths from earlier intervention

In cases like that of the novel coronavirus, for which we have neither an effective treatment nor a vaccine, interventions must go back to the basics, including simply keeping individuals from one another by prohibiting large gatherings, closing schools and asking people to stay at home. The graphic above illustrates the extraordinary effect that the timing of social distancing policies can have on an outbreak’s death toll.

On March 16, the White House issued initial social distancing guidelines, including closing schools and avoiding groups of more than 10. But an estimated 90 percent of the cumulative deaths in the United States from Covid-19, at least from the first wave of the epidemic, might have been prevented by putting social distancing policies into effect two weeks earlier, on March 2, when there were only 11 deaths in the entire country. The effect would have been substantial had the policies been imposed even one week earlier, on March 9, resulting in approximately a 60 percent reduction in deaths.

To determine the impact of early interventions, we used growth rates in cumulative deaths calculated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington from the date that social distancing measures were introduced until the predicted end of the epidemic, and applied them to case numbers from earlier points when such measures could hypothetically have been put into effect.

The absolute numbers are largely beside the point. No model is a crystal ball, and there is far too much uncertainty in the trajectory of the U.S. epidemic to conclude that a certain prediction will be borne out. What matters more is the relative effect of moving earlier rather than later in trying to contain the spread. The relative effects of moving earlier necessarily depend on the assumed rate of growth, but the general conclusion is the same: Earlier is better.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said as much on Sunday on the CNN program “State of the Union.”

“Obviously, you could logically say that if you had a process that was ongoing and you started mitigation earlier, you could have saved lives,” he said. But, he noted, “there was a lot of pushback about shutting things” early in the outbreak.

Whatever the final death toll is in the United States, the cost of waiting will be enormous, a tragic consequence of the exponential spread of the virus early in the epidemic.

To a large extent, the growth in U.S. deaths from Covid-19 has been fueled by the devastating events in New York, where the state’s stay-at-home order did not take effect until March 22. Our assessment echoes that of Dr. Tom Frieden, the former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, who was New York City’s health commissioner from 2002 to 2009. He has estimated that deaths might have been reduced by 50 percent to 80 percent in the city if social distancing had been widely adopted a week or two earlier.

The point here is not to cast blame on mayors or governors for the timing of what were difficult decisions for both public health and the economy, but rather, to alert cities and states where full social distancing measures are not in place that hesitation can come at a very high cost.

We also looked at state estimates and illustrate two that have only recently introduced statewide stay-at-home provisions (April 3 for Mississippi and Florida), and one that has yet to do so (Iowa, for which we selected April 14 for a possible stay-at-home order). The results for a one- or two-week earlier start on statewide policies are consistent and resemble those for the United States as a whole: Applying social distancing one week earlier is associated with a 60 percent reduction in the expected final death count.

The percentage reductions are, of course, estimates but this hardly blunts the take-home message.

[Graph Here] -- tracking deaths in three states

Many governors have argued for following the data and the science to determine when to act. Some states have already experienced partial effects of social distancing by taking intermediate steps to moderate the growth in infections, like limiting the size of gatherings or shutting some nonessential businesses. But the data and science are clear: It’s always too late if you wait until you think the number of deaths is sufficient to act.

There is no need to rely on the hypothetical calculations that we have described. The recent divergence of epidemics in Kentucky and Tennessee shows that even a few days’ difference in action can have a big effect. Kentucky’s social distancing measure was issued March 26; Tennessee waited until the last minute of March 31. As Kentucky moved to full statewide measures in reducing infection growth, Tennessee was usually less than a week behind. But as of Friday, the result was stark: Kentucky had 1,693 confirmed cases (379 per million population); Tennessee had 4,862 (712 per million).

It is important to understand that lockdowns are not a solution to the virus, but they do buy us time to better prepare for further waves of infection and to develop treatments and vaccines. Decisions about the timing of imposing social distancing are now largely behind us. The next critical decisions will center on when we begin easing stay-at-home policies.

Getting that wrong will lead to second wave of infections and a return to lockdowns. We can’t afford to repeat the same mistakes."

[jhu72]

trying to play a little devil's advocate here again...
most involved globally are trying to play hands without knowing their cards.
what is the endgame? least covid related deaths? least combo of covid related medical deaths and economic damage? (read in that the mental, physical, social damage and all the things that come with that)

it would seem barring a hail mary we are very early innings. maybe the first inning.
we need time until game can be won. a vaccine.... what if there is no vaccine? this is a novel, 100 year flood virus -- animal to human, high transmissability... high case fatality.... i have tremendous faith in biotech, but it's also very possible an effective vaccine is not found.
major prominent left newscasts last night had several scientists say herd immunity may be the only way out other than social distancing for years... years. what would that do to society? look what it's done so far, and we haven't seen nothing if things get amplified.

tests rolled out have been a cluster in preparation, awareness, efficiency, supplies, efficacy, accuracy, coordination, reagents and supplies for the supplies...
now it's about antibody tests. 100s of millions? what if immunity isn't real with this?
hail mary on a treatment. or that immunity works and maybe many more people have been exposed than we think. science nowadays is amazing. i believe they'll figure it out.

ultimately, i have faith in our people. long term. get the transmission rate under 1 with a functioning society. somehow.

good post. the goal certainly isnt unified nor clear nor static.

give everyone in the world a keyboard, hindsight, and, well... let the critique begin.

we are all Dr. Wiki. well, almost all! that's what makes FanLax so great.

i do think this is the beginning stages, based on nothing other than reading the experts here.

one question on vaccines- while certainly critical, isnt proper therapy just as important?

Therapies are probably more important. Truly effective therapies not requiring hospitalization and the high R0 would produce herd immunity in relative short order. The real problem is the lethality coupled with its required hospitalization. If this could be treated effectively at home, it is just a super cold. Now that we are seeing that ventilators are likely a mistake in the vast majority of serious cases, this goal may be attainable. Not a prediction, just an assessment. The remaining concerns are; is there any lasting long term effect?; how effective is the production of herd immunity? The jury is still out.

We do have an immediate problem in trying to get back to something like normal. The antibody tests are a cluster fu*k. The Trump FDA approach to allow dozens of untested, unverified antibody tests out into the market is a disaster. There is some real beans out there masquerading as something of value. It's a used car salesman's heaven. There are a smaller number that may be of value. It is going to take more time to sort this out.

[6ftstick]

Another thumbs down for Dr. Trump's snake oil.

Dr Trumps snake oil?

why would this study of 1000 carry more weight than a study of 35 patients in CHINA
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/0 ... n-regimen/

French Study of 1,000+ Patients Including Seniors See 98% Success Rate with Hydroxychloroquine-Azithromycin Regimen

So in reality you'd prefer people die than for Trump to have been correct.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/michigan- ... -her-life/

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... oronavirus

[jhu72]

Another thumbs down for Dr. Trump's snake oil.

Dr Trumps snake oil?

why would this study of 1000 carry more weight than a study of 35 patients in CHINA
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/0 ... n-regimen/

French Study of 1,000+ Patients Including Seniors See 98% Success Rate with Hydroxychloroquine-Azithromycin Regimen

So in reality you'd prefer people die than for Trump to have been correct.

Because the Gateway Pudidiot is reporting it.

[ChairmanOfTheBoard]

Therapies are probably more important. Truly effective therapies not requiring hospitalization and the high R0 would produce herd immunity in relative short order.

that's where i was headed but didnt know enough to state it with authority- thanks 72.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Another thumbs down for Dr. Trump's snake oil.

Dr Trumps snake oil?

why would this study of 1000 carry more weight than a study of 35 patients in CHINA
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/0 ... n-regimen/

French Study of 1,000+ Patients Including Seniors See 98% Success Rate with Hydroxychloroquine-Azithromycin Regimen

So in reality you'd prefer people die than for Trump to have been correct.

Because the Gateway Pudidiot is reporting it.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/eur ... lled-covid

[6ftstick]

Another thumbs down for Dr. Trump's snake oil.

Dr Trumps snake oil?

why would this study of 1000 carry more weight than a study of 35 patients in CHINA
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/0 ... n-regimen/

French Study of 1,000+ Patients Including Seniors See 98% Success Rate with Hydroxychloroquine-Azithromycin Regimen

So in reality you'd prefer people die than for Trump to have been correct.

Because the Gateway Pudidiot is reporting it.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/eur ... lled-covid

From your post

The decision is intended to secure supply for patients who need the drugs to survive

Nothing to do with how the drug works

[jhu72]

A final antidote is to tune out the negative nabobs of the media and Left who have a vested interest in making you hysterical; they are selling you tickets to their carnival, making dishonest money along the way, a non-essential pursuit if there ever was one.

i just can't WAIT for the next Dem administration so we can see all the measured, reasonable, non-hysterical posts being made by PB, 6ft, t37, ya, C&S and ALL our MOST reasoned, calm, positive friends on the Right. You know, all in support of "just giving the guy a chance", and "wanting whats good for the country" ... yeah, that...

..

Did this website or the previous one (Laxpower) have a thread of over 400+ pages called 'Orange Obama" or something along those lines, during the Obama reign?

That should answer who is sane and who should check into the local psychiatric ward.

Nope. It did however have such a thread dedicated to Hillary in the lead up to the 2016 election. The Orange Duce thread was started in response to that thread, in early 2016. The name of the thread, Orange Duce, was given it by a real conservative media personality.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Another thumbs down for Dr. Trump's snake oil.

Dr Trumps snake oil?

why would this study of 1000 carry more weight than a study of 35 patients in CHINA
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/0 ... n-regimen/

French Study of 1,000+ Patients Including Seniors See 98% Success Rate with Hydroxychloroquine-Azithromycin Regimen

So in reality you'd prefer people die than for Trump to have been correct.

Because the Gateway Pudidiot is reporting it.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/eur ... lled-covid

From your post

The decision is intended to secure supply for patients who need the drugs to survive

Nothing to do with how the drug works

https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... mental?amp

I hope we find a treatment. The science will make that call. Not a politician.

[wgdsr]

Another thumbs down for Dr. Trump's snake oil.

did they use it with zinc?
early onstage or after it was too late for the drug to be effective?
who was it used on?
i'm really interested in more china information.
as long as we're posting things about research that we have no details, no peer review, etc.... a la our commander in chief... here's an update in france with now 4337 patients:
https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/covid-19/
control group 1666, 67 deaths, 4.0% case fatality.
hcl/zpk group: 2671, 11 deaths, 0.4% case fatality.
zero other details that i've found as of yet.

a while back, new york (city?) was supposed to be running a 1K + trial, cuomo says results of a trial will be released in 5 days. given he restricted use to only hospitalized patients at one point, it's unclear whether this one will have evidence of patients at various stages early, late, high viral load and virus taking over already, etc. tamiflu and many other viral candidates are deemed most effective the earlier you take them.
there was also this out today:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/coronav ... speed.html
looks like more than a dozen going here in the us of a.
there are hopefully hundreds more on other possible treatments.

[6ftstick]

Another thumbs down for Dr. Trump's snake oil.

Dr Trumps snake oil?

why would this study of 1000 carry more weight than a study of 35 patients in CHINA
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/0 ... n-regimen/

French Study of 1,000+ Patients Including Seniors See 98% Success Rate with Hydroxychloroquine-Azithromycin Regimen

So in reality you'd prefer people die than for Trump to have been correct.

Because the Gateway Pudidiot is reporting it.

Dr. Didier Raoult

among the most influential researchers in his field and his publications are among the 1% most consulted in academic journals. He is one of the 99 most cited microbiologists in the world

His laboratory employs more than 200 people, including 86 researchers who publish between 250 and 350 papers per year and have produced more than 50 patents

Another clown you can insult freely from your basement desktop. Like "Little Debbie Birx"