All things CoronaVirus

[wgdsr]

Todays deaths reached a new daily high and again casts doubt as to whether the turning a top is real or not. See what tomorrow brings.

US Deaths 4-14-20.jpg

Did today’s count include deaths now classified as COVID 19

I don't think so. NYS share or daily deaths is decreasing. I saw Cuomo's reported comments, but I don't think the official counts are being handled that way.

More than 2,400 deaths today. The week-over-week death toll is still rising.

Would not put much stock in the downward trend in new confirmed cases, as that seems to track a corresponding decrease in testing.

New York reclassified 3,700 cases as coronavirus deaths. So, total deaths are now around 30,000 ... all in just 10 weeks or so. By comparison, 18,000 perished from H1N1 in an entire year between 2014 and 2015.

Meanwhile, South Korea, which responded quickly to the coronavirus crisis, has reported 222 total deaths.

Trump’s malignant narcissism and incompetence have already cost tens of thousands of American lives.

What a tragedy.

DocBarrister

Doc,

To clarify, no new deaths were added to the total for NY State. 3778 of the 10367 reported deaths were just classified as "probable due to COVID-19". Please see the attached link. For reference in the time period from 3/13/20 to 4/13/20 there were 8184 deaths NOT caused by COVID-19. Just stating for reference, a very close number to the actually amount of COVID-19 Deaths.

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloa ... 142020.pdf

Best,
Joe

So Joe, if I read this correctly, there has really not be any change in reported numbers to Health departments and CDC and the public. It is just NYS better explaining what they have done??

the link is nyc only.
they will be adding the 3700+ to the state roll as soon as they can also slot them by day.

[JoeMauer89]

Todays deaths reached a new daily high and again casts doubt as to whether the turning a top is real or not. See what tomorrow brings.

US Deaths 4-14-20.jpg

Did today’s count include deaths now classified as COVID 19

I don't think so. NYS share or daily deaths is decreasing. I saw Cuomo's reported comments, but I don't think the official counts are being handled that way.

More than 2,400 deaths today. The week-over-week death toll is still rising.

Would not put much stock in the downward trend in new confirmed cases, as that seems to track a corresponding decrease in testing.

New York reclassified 3,700 cases as coronavirus deaths. So, total deaths are now around 30,000 ... all in just 10 weeks or so. By comparison, 18,000 perished from H1N1 in an entire year between 2014 and 2015.



Meanwhile, South Korea, which responded quickly to the coronavirus crisis, has reported 222 total deaths.























































































Trump’s malignant narcissism and incompetence have already cost tens of thousands of American lives.

What a tragedy.

DocBarrister

Doc,

To clarify, no new deaths were added to the total for NY State. 3778 of the 10367 reported deaths were just classified as "probable due to COVID-19". Please see the attached link. For reference in the time period from 3/13/20 to 4/13/20 there were 8184 deaths NOT caused by COVID-19. Just stating for reference, a very close number to the actually amount of COVID-19 Deaths.

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloa ... 142020.pdf

Best,
Joe

So Joe, if I read this correctly, there has really not be any change in reported numbers to Health departments and CDC and the public. It is just NYS better explaining what they have done??

the link is nyc only.
they will be adding the 3700+ to the state roll as soon as they can also slot them by day.

wgdsr,

It seems you are correct, thanks for clarification. I would imagine a very large number of these probable deaths are in nursing homes and/or other private care facilities.

Best,
Joe

[DocBarrister]

New York reclassified 3,700 cases as coronavirus deaths. So, total deaths are now around 30,000 ... all in just 10 weeks or so. By comparison, 18,000 perished from H1N1 in an entire year between 2014 and 2015.

Meanwhile, South Korea, which responded quickly to the coronavirus crisis, has reported 222 total deaths.

Trump’s malignant narcissism and incompetence have already cost tens of thousands of American lives.

What a tragedy.

DocBarrister

the swine flu was in 2009-2010.
not many scientists would compare the two diseases in total deaths without context.
like that corona may end up with a case fatality rate of 50 -100x h1n1.

Yep. 2009-2010. Thanks.

DocB

[calourie]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/york-city-re ... 28540.html

Here is a more user friendly report on the reclassification of deaths to include "presumptive" deaths going on. I leave it to the future to determine how this plays out in terms of official deaths from Covid19 that get reported on the sites tracking those numbers ( I know of two: Johns Hsopkins, and IMHE, a University of Washington affiliate).

[ggait]

Sweden is fine. Democrats love authoritarians because they have zero faith in themselves. Sad!

Petey -- National Review and Fox News think Sweden is doing fine. But here's what the data says.

Sweden (10.3 million pop) has twice as many deaths as Iceland, Norway, Denmark and Finland combined (17.1 million total pop combined). Today was Sweden's worst day for deaths. UW projects deaths won't peak in Sweden until May 8.

The other Nordic countries are all past the peak and starting to roll back their SD restrictions. Sweden is considering dialing up their restrictions.

Also, it doesn't look like Sweden is really dodging much/any economic pain with their approach. But it will take a while for the data to really come in on that.

But the Swedes get to pick what they do. If they are happy with it...

[jhu72]

If we only knew then what we know now.

[calourie]

Sweden is fine. Democrats love authoritarians because they have zero faith in themselves. Sad!

Petey -- National Review and Fox News think Sweden is doing fine. But here's what the data says.

Sweden (10.3 million pop) has twice as many deaths as Iceland, Norway, Denmark and Finland combined (17.1 million total pop combined). Today was Sweden's worst day for deaths. UW projects deaths won't peak in Sweden until May 8.

The other Nordic countries are all past the peak and starting to roll back their SD restrictions. Sweden is considering dialing up their restrictions.

Also, it doesn't look like Sweden is really dodging much/any economic pain with their approach. But it will take a while for the data to really come in on that.

But the Swedes get to pick what they do. If they are happy with it...

Posted this previous page on this thread, but didn't want it to get lost in the shuffle, and think it adds more context to ggait's comment.

Sweden is only fine if you ignore the numbers and trends. Right now Sweden, a country of 10 million or so has 1033 deaths, slightly higher rate than in the US with 33x the number of people and 26,000 deaths. However if you look at the IMHE projections, under Sweden's do very little response, the number of deaths isn't expected to peak there until mid May and the total number of deaths is expected to exceed 18,000, which will amount to almost the same number of total deaths in European countries such as Italy, Spain, the U.K. and France with anywhere from 4 to 6 times the population of Sweden. Not to mention that the US would have to have nearly 600,000 deaths to equal Sweden's projected rate. Even more pertinent, Sweden's other Baltic neighbors, Finland, Norway and Denmark, all with about 5 million inhabitants and strict self distancing and quarentine measures are projected to have 211, 811, and 1660 deaths in total respectively. IMHE isn't a "stupid" (using your words) democraic tool, just a group o doctors doing their best to inform people where they think this virus is headed given the steps taken or not. Their projection for non intervenng Sweden: far and away the worst outcome in Europe. Guess w will just have to wait and see where the numbers take us, but in the meantime it looks way premature to be touting the Swedish response. Likely to be just another response to COVID Fox will have to walk back without ever admitting they took that position in the first place. I'll save you some energy, "democrats are so stupid".

[Trinity]

Hang tough, America. Gonna be a delay on some of those relief checks. Trump needs his name printed on them in the memo section. Seriously.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html

And yesterday he threatened to leave his own press conference if a reporter kept asking a question. As if the other reporters would be devastated. Seriously.

And while Trump is pushing his favorite miracle drug, the CIA is warning its employees not to take hydroxychloroquine.

We need a psyche consult.

[seacoaster]

Hang tough, America. Gonna be a delay on some of those relief checks. Trump needs his name printed on them in the memo section. Seriously.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html

And yesterday he threatened to leave his own press conference if a reporter kept asking a question. As if the other reporters would be devastated. Seriously.

And while Trump is pushing his favorite miracle drug, the CIA is warning its employees not to take hydroxychloroquine.

We need a psyche consult.

Wrong thread, but if, by blaming the Chinese, defunding the WHO, blathering constantly, and getting his name on the checks, Americans don't wake up to the fact that the President is not competent for this job even in ordinary times, we won't deserve the republic that our parents and grandparents left us.

[Trinity]

Putin’s face must hurt from laughing.

[wgdsr]

trying to play a little devil's advocate here again...
most involved globally are trying to play hands without knowing their cards.
what is the endgame? least covid related deaths? least combo of covid related medical deaths and economic damage? (read in that the mental, physical, social damage and all the things that come with that)

it would seem barring a hail mary we are very early innings. maybe the first inning.
we need time until game can be won. a vaccine.... what if there is no vaccine? this is a novel, 100 year flood virus -- animal to human, high transmissability... high case fatality.... i have tremendous faith in biotech, but it's also very possible an effective vaccine is not found.
major prominent left newscasts last night had several scientists say herd immunity may be the only way out other than social distancing for years... years. what would that do to society? look what it's done so far, and we haven't seen nothing if things get amplified.

tests rolled out have been a cluster in preparation, awareness, efficiency, supplies, efficacy, accuracy, coordination, reagents and supplies for the supplies...
now it's about antibody tests. 100s of millions? what if immunity isn't real with this?
hail mary on a treatment. or that immunity works and maybe many more people have been exposed than we think. science nowadays is amazing. i believe they'll figure it out.

ultimately, i have faith in our people. long term. get the transmission rate under 1 with a functioning society. somehow.

[Trinity]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/opin ... ncing.html

The cost of waiting.

[ChairmanOfTheBoard]

trying to play a little devil's advocate here again...
most involved globally are trying to play hands without knowing their cards.
what is the endgame? least covid related deaths? least combo of covid related medical deaths and economic damage? (read in that the mental, physical, social damage and all the things that come with that)

it would seem barring a hail mary we are very early innings. maybe the first inning.
we need time until game can be won. a vaccine.... what if there is no vaccine? this is a novel, 100 year flood virus -- animal to human, high transmissability... high case fatality.... i have tremendous faith in biotech, but it's also very possible an effective vaccine is not found.
major prominent left newscasts last night had several scientists say herd immunity may be the only way out other than social distancing for years... years. what would that do to society? look what it's done so far, and we haven't seen nothing if things get amplified.

tests rolled out have been a cluster in preparation, awareness, efficiency, supplies, efficacy, accuracy, coordination, reagents and supplies for the supplies...
now it's about antibody tests. 100s of millions? what if immunity isn't real with this?
hail mary on a treatment. or that immunity works and maybe many more people have been exposed than we think. science nowadays is amazing. i believe they'll figure it out.

ultimately, i have faith in our people. long term. get the transmission rate under 1 with a functioning society. somehow.

good post. the goal certainly isnt unified nor clear nor static.

give everyone in the world a keyboard, hindsight, and, well... let the critique begin.

we are all Dr. Wiki. well, almost all! that's what makes FanLax so great.

i do think this is the beginning stages, based on nothing other than reading the experts here.

one question on vaccines- while certainly critical, isnt proper therapy just as important?

[wgdsr]

if there is no vaccine, or year-years away... it's more important. this isn't 1918. we have smart people everywhere. and an incredible awareness of how the body works to outside agents and ways they can be fought.
it's been noted repeatedly, but that takes time, too. hopefully not much and politics can stay out of it. last part's more of a long shot, but maybe our real experts can "trump" that.

[Peter Brown]

if there is no vaccine, or year-years away... it's more important. this isn't 1918. we have smart people everywhere. and an incredible awareness of how the body works to outside agents and ways they can be fought.
it's been noted repeatedly, but that takes time, too. hopefully not much and politics can stay out of it. last part's more of a long shot, but maybe our real experts can "trump" that.

First, we slow the spread, allowing our economy to reopen (social distancing, 5 minute tests, face masks, etc..).

Then, we will have various cures for when the disease attacks you (hydroxychloroquine).

Then we will have antibodies.

Then we will have vaccines.

There is no linear line. Every company in the world is racing to discover solutions. Never underestimate the power of human beings in free economies from solving the world's greatest problems. And because everyone is focused on this one virus, expect solutions to arrive at lightening speed.

A final antidote is to tune out the negative nabobs of the media and Left who have a vested interest in making you hysterical; they are selling you tickets to their carnival, making dishonest money along the way, a non-essential pursuit if there ever was one.

[MDlaxfan76]

trying to play a little devil's advocate here again...
most involved globally are trying to play hands without knowing their cards.
what is the endgame? least covid related deaths? least combo of covid related medical deaths and economic damage? (read in that the mental, physical, social damage and all the things that come with that)

it would seem barring a hail mary we are very early innings. maybe the first inning.
we need time until game can be won. a vaccine.... what if there is no vaccine? this is a novel, 100 year flood virus -- animal to human, high transmissability... high case fatality.... i have tremendous faith in biotech, but it's also very possible an effective vaccine is not found.
major prominent left newscasts last night had several scientists say herd immunity may be the only way out other than social distancing for years... years. what would that do to society? look what it's done so far, and we haven't seen nothing if things get amplified.

tests rolled out have been a cluster in preparation, awareness, efficiency, supplies, efficacy, accuracy, coordination, reagents and supplies for the supplies...
now it's about antibody tests. 100s of millions? what if immunity isn't real with this?
hail mary on a treatment. or that immunity works and maybe many more people have been exposed than we think. science nowadays is amazing. i believe they'll figure it out.

ultimately, i have faith in our people. long term. get the transmission rate under 1 with a functioning society. somehow.

I was thinking of posting much the same.

This is very, very early innings...if not just inning one.
Many more 'innings' to come.
Waves of transmission until vaccine or herd, or combo.

Staying with the analogy, if just the first inning, we hit a long foul ball with the China 'travel ban'. It was already here and we let another 40,000 in thereafter, so it looked great until it curved foul. Hard hit ball. In the meantime, while we were admiring the long foul ball and congratulating ourselves, the next pitch (6 weeks lost) went dead center of the plate and we didn't even swing. Strike 2. When we picked up our head we denied the strike had happened, stepped out of the box, tramped around flexing our muscles, no problem we get another pitch, and then we hit two more foul balls, argued some more with the umpires, and then got another pitch down the middle...and we're about to whiff. Strike 3 coming.

No problem, there will be more innings of play.
With people dying, health system on edge of breakdown, food system in danger.

I posted yesterday about the recommendations soon coming from Dr Osterholm. It's going to involve young people working, the rest of us remaining in place, ramped up testing (but will not have enough for some time). Lots of physical distancing. Some will die, but not overwhelming health system. But economy will at least turn.

He says that before vaccine is effective and widely distributed, 50% of Americans will be infected, every community in every state. 800K + will die in multiple waves.

Sure hope that's wrong.

[MDlaxfan76]

trying to play a little devil's advocate here again...
...

ultimately, i have faith in our people. long term. get the transmission rate under 1 with a functioning society. somehow.

good post. the goal certainly isnt unified nor clear nor static.

give everyone in the world a keyboard, hindsight, and, well... let the critique begin.

we are all Dr. Wiki. well, almost all! that's what makes FanLax so great.

i do think this is the beginning stages, based on nothing other than reading the experts here.

one question on vaccines- while certainly critical, isnt proper therapy just as important?

With 'proper therapies' ala the rolling patients onto their stomachs, we can reduce ventilator use and death rate.

But what we're seeing is devastation other than just immediate death. Long term impacts. That's been a bit lost in the focus on deaths as the measure.

We're hoping that there may be other therapies that will work, but so far not looking like anything is working super well.

I agree with PB and others that there's immense ingenuity and resources being brought to bear, so there's good reason to be hopeful about such. But they need time. Might need a lot of time.

Are we willing to do what is necessary to get there?
We're whining about 30 more days of stay at home?
When we know for sure that we don't have testing ready?

[JoeMauer89]

trying to play a little devil's advocate here again...
most involved globally are trying to play hands without knowing their cards.
what is the endgame? least covid related deaths? least combo of covid related medical deaths and economic damage? (read in that the mental, physical, social damage and all the things that come with that)

it would seem barring a hail mary we are very early innings. maybe the first inning.
we need time until game can be won. a vaccine.... what if there is no vaccine? this is a novel, 100 year flood virus -- animal to human, high transmissability... high case fatality.... i have tremendous faith in biotech, but it's also very possible an effective vaccine is not found.
major prominent left newscasts last night had several scientists say herd immunity may be the only way out other than social distancing for years... years. what would that do to society? look what it's done so far, and we haven't seen nothing if things get amplified.

tests rolled out have been a cluster in preparation, awareness, efficiency, supplies, efficacy, accuracy, coordination, reagents and supplies for the supplies...
now it's about antibody tests. 100s of millions? what if immunity isn't real with this?
hail mary on a treatment. or that immunity works and maybe many more people have been exposed than we think. science nowadays is amazing. i believe they'll figure it out.

ultimately, i have faith in our people. long term. get the transmission rate under 1 with a functioning society. somehow.

I was thinking of posting much the same.

This is very, very early innings...if not just inning one.
Many more 'innings' to come.
Waves of transmission until vaccine or herd, or combo.

Staying with the analogy, if just the first inning, we hit a long foul ball with the China 'travel ban'. It was already here and we let another 40,000 in thereafter, so it looked great until it curved foul. Hard hit ball. In the meantime, while we were admiring the long foul ball and congratulating ourselves, the next pitch (6 weeks lost) went dead center of the plate and we didn't even swing. Strike 2. When we picked up our head we denied the strike had happened, stepped out of the box, tramped around flexing our muscles, no problem we get another pitch, and then we hit two more foul balls, argued some more with the umpires, and then got another pitch down the middle...and we're about to whiff. Strike 3 coming.

No problem, there will be more innings of play.
With people dying, health system on edge of breakdown, food system in danger.

I posted yesterday about the recommendations soon coming from Dr Osterholm. It's going to involve young people working, the rest of us remaining in place, ramped up testing (but will not have enough for some time). Lots of physical distancing. Some will die, but not overwhelming health system. But economy will at least turn.

He says that before vaccine is effective and widely distributed, 50% of Americans will be infected, every community in every state. 800K + will die in multiple waves.

Sure hope that's wrong.

Dr Osterholm is a very well respected opinion but he's discounting all human ingenuity/action that's currently taking else. Like anything else Dr Osterholm is making a prediction based on his own "Model". Once again 800,000 dead is more than likely the worst case scenario that does not account for effective therapeutics (we are far far closer to this than a vaccine) Improved Human behavior, ramped up testing (Which despite everybody pointing out, continues to ramp up every day, albeit not yet at the rate we need it to yet) and agressive measures via targeted isolation and contact tracing. The final step is the Vaccine, and I have news for everybody, what makes you think there aren't going to be 25-30% of America that refuses to get vaccinated? Effective Treatments are what we need, and there are massive strides made everyday in the many hospitals across the US in this regard, despite what the media chooses to try and get you to believe (most know better than to believe it). We will get through this, we are far to advanced a civilization not to, and that's where the models fall short to a degree.

Stay Safe,
Joe

[Brooklyn]

A final antidote is to tune out the negative nabobs of the media and Left who have a vested interest in making you hysterical; they are selling you tickets to their carnival, making dishonest money along the way, a non-essential pursuit if there ever was one.

PB ovviously works for the Fo卐 network since he is re-echoing the anti-America garbage they spew:







Instead of calling this "hysteria", the right wing delusionals should have heeded the many warnings given by patriots in the media and those made by others. Had idiots like Fo卐 and tRUMP listened, many thousands of lives could have been saved. But, as always, those right wing delusionals will find some way to blame all others for the mess they create.

[dislaxxic]

A final antidote is to tune out the negative nabobs of the media and Left who have a vested interest in making you hysterical; they are selling you tickets to their carnival, making dishonest money along the way, a non-essential pursuit if there ever was one.

i just can't WAIT for the next Dem administration so we can see all the measured, reasonable, non-hysterical posts being made by PB, 6ft, t37, ya, C&S and ALL our MOST reasoned, calm, positive friends on the Right. You know, all in support of "just giving the guy a chance", and "wanting whats good for the country" ... yeah, that...

..