His range is 800k-1.6million.JoeMauer89 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:58 amDr Osterholm is a very well respected opinion but he's discounting all human ingenuity/action that's currently taking else. Like anything else Dr Osterholm is making a prediction based on his own "Model". Once again 800,000 dead is more than likely the worst case scenario that does not account for effective therapeutics (we are far far closer to this than a vaccine) Improved Human behavior, ramped up testing (Which despite everybody pointing out, continues to ramp up every day, albeit not yet at the rate we need it to yet) and agressive measures via targeted isolation and contact tracing. The final step is the Vaccine, and I have news for everybody, what makes you think there aren't going to be 25-30% of America that refuses to get vaccinated? Effective Treatments are what we need, and there are massive strides made everyday in the many hospitals across the US in this regard, despite what the media chooses to try and get you to believe (most know better than to believe it). We will get through this, we are far to advanced a civilization not to, and that's where the models fall short to a degree.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:47 amI was thinking of posting much the same.wgdsr wrote: ↑Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:22 am trying to play a little devil's advocate here again...
most involved globally are trying to play hands without knowing their cards.
what is the endgame? least covid related deaths? least combo of covid related medical deaths and economic damage? (read in that the mental, physical, social damage and all the things that come with that)
it would seem barring a hail mary we are very early innings. maybe the first inning.
we need time until game can be won. a vaccine.... what if there is no vaccine? this is a novel, 100 year flood virus -- animal to human, high transmissability... high case fatality.... i have tremendous faith in biotech, but it's also very possible an effective vaccine is not found.
major prominent left newscasts last night had several scientists say herd immunity may be the only way out other than social distancing for years... years. what would that do to society? look what it's done so far, and we haven't seen nothing if things get amplified.
tests rolled out have been a cluster in preparation, awareness, efficiency, supplies, efficacy, accuracy, coordination, reagents and supplies for the supplies...
now it's about antibody tests. 100s of millions? what if immunity isn't real with this?
hail mary on a treatment. or that immunity works and maybe many more people have been exposed than we think. science nowadays is amazing. i believe they'll figure it out.
ultimately, i have faith in our people. long term. get the transmission rate under 1 with a functioning society. somehow.
This is very, very early innings...if not just inning one.
Many more 'innings' to come.
Waves of transmission until vaccine or herd, or combo.
Staying with the analogy, if just the first inning, we hit a long foul ball with the China 'travel ban'. It was already here and we let another 40,000 in thereafter, so it looked great until it curved foul. Hard hit ball. In the meantime, while we were admiring the long foul ball and congratulating ourselves, the next pitch (6 weeks lost) went dead center of the plate and we didn't even swing. Strike 2. When we picked up our head we denied the strike had happened, stepped out of the box, tramped around flexing our muscles, no problem we get another pitch, and then we hit two more foul balls, argued some more with the umpires, and then got another pitch down the middle...and we're about to whiff. Strike 3 coming.
No problem, there will be more innings of play.
With people dying, health system on edge of breakdown, food system in danger.
I posted yesterday about the recommendations soon coming from Dr Osterholm. It's going to involve young people working, the rest of us remaining in place, ramped up testing (but will not have enough for some time). Lots of physical distancing. Some will die, but not overwhelming health system. But economy will at least turn.
He says that before vaccine is effective and widely distributed, 50% of Americans will be infected, every community in every state. 800K + will die in multiple waves.
Sure hope that's wrong.
Stay Safe,
Joe
I agree that it's very possible that he's wrong, that we will take the necessary steps, invent therapies, vaccines, ramp the testing sufficiently, etc etc.
But his argument is that we need to address the reality of the economy eventually needing to continue and the need therefore for us to come to grips with how we're going to accomplish that, the costs involved. What we cannot afford is for breakdown of the health system and food system.
I'd have a lot more confidence that we can choke the virus sufficiently and that we can get testing to the point that contact tracing can continue to choke it off, if I saw any evidence of the federal leadership to do so.
Therapies and vaccines should come, eventually. But if we don't get the testing in place, we won't be able to keep this choked off...assuming we have the will to choke it off in the first place.
South Dakota being a case in point. This is coming everywhere. Dry tinder.