a fan wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:25 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:20 pm
DocBarrister wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:11 pm
a fan wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:54 pm
DocBarrister wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:46 pm
a fan wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:16 pm
I'm not in the "Why didn't Trump do more back in Feb" camp, and you know it. He did the best he could, just as Governors in other States who didn't shut down their States.
It's IMPOSSIBLE to tell if you're overreacting. Full stop. That's the STUPIDITY of the Stanford article. The ONLY way to "test" if we're overreacting is to do nothing, and hope America survives. This is logic that's even worse than Homer Simpson's.
No one, not even Trump, is suggesting we do nothing, and just resign to whatever happens.
This isn’t true.
It's 1,000 percent true. Watch......
Which country overreacted to the Virus?
Regarding your question ... none. No nation “overreacted” to this virus.
Don’t rely on my opinion ... just ask the doctors and nurses in New York City, New Orleans, Paris, and Rome.
DocBarrister
a fan, I don't even understand the question as to "overreacted"...do you think a country "overreacted"??.
What Doc is trying to sell here is that when the a virus comes along, It's impossible to overreact.
So that means, obviously, when Virus X shows up in say, Africa in 2021, Doc is telling us that America should shelter in place nationwide, and do it immediately, on the same day.
This is patently ridiculous, obviously. Like everything in life....moderation is the way to go.
That is not what I have been saying. The U.S. didn’t shelter in place nationwide for H1N1 ... and the response to that virus was appropriate (not perfect) and timely.
What I am saying is that no nation anywhere has “overreacted” to SARS-CoV-2 ... the virus of THIS pandemic.
SARS-CoV-2 is not a virus to be messed with. “[M]oderation” is definitely not the way to go with this virus.
So far, experience with this virus has supported the use of at least two effective strategies, both of which are most appropriately described as EXTREME:
(1) South Korean model: ramp up testing immediately on a massive scale, followed by voluntary social distancing directives.
(2) China model: miss the window for early testing, but then institute delayed testing with draconian isolation measures for infected individuals (no sheltering at home ... separate from family members). Then institute a police- and military-enforced quarantine of entire mega-cities and regions.
Both of those approaches worked. I know which one I prefer.
As for the “moderation” approach? The model for that is Italy, where testing was slow to ramp up, social distancing directives were inconsistently followed, and the Italian government kept sending mixed messages. The result was very disheartening.
Oh, guess what nation’s track Mike Pence said we were following?
Yeah ... you guessed it. You see, a fan, we are following the moderation model, and we’re following Italy’s sad trajectory.
We need to quadruple, quintuple, whatever ... our testing, shut down nationwide, and stay shut down until at least June. Even then, we should only ease restrictions gradually and keep testing on a massive scale. Until a vaccine is ready (at the earliest, first or second quarter of 2021), local and regional breakouts will occur, requiring local and regional shutdowns on an as-needed basis.
Even if a vaccine arrives, it will take at least six months to vaccinate everyone in the world who needs it. Antibody titer tests can be used to identify those who already have immunity, but even some of those may need a booster shot.
If all goes well and smoothly, we can look forward to the “new normal” sometime in the last quarter of 2021. Hopefully, the recession will end in the first or second quarter of 2021. Sadly, somewhere between 50,000 to 100,000 Americans (or more) may have succumbed to the virus by then.
Based on what I have read, that is the optimistic scenario.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but this isn’t going to be over by summer, or even the football season. That’s not my take, that’s what the expert consensus is saying. Things can change (I hope for that, too), but that is the current assessment among the (optimistic) experts.
DocBarrister