LaxPower Back-Up Stick

44WeWantMore wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 2:04 pm Copying from the Big Red forum:

laxfan1313 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 10:29 pm The key appears to be adding the RPI ranking to the Quality Win ranking plus half the strength of schedule ranking. The lower the number the better. At this point, after PSU defeated JHU, the numbers for the final 2 at large spots are:

Cornell: 20.50
Notre Dame: 21.00
JHU: 24.50
Maryland: 24.50
Syracuse: 27.00

Seems to match LaxBytes.

Code: Select all

  13 Cornell               94.42
  14 Notre Dame            87.52
  15 Johns Hopkins         68.83
  16 Maryland              68.83
  18 Syracuse              53.02

Apparent separation between the top two and bottom three. Cornell and ND seem safer, and JHU, UMD, and SU need to worry. If it is strictly by the numbers above, JHU and UMD are safe. If the committee says the numbers of the bottom three are within the margin of error, and goes to H2H, then SU claims the H2H over JHU, and JHU claims the H2H over UMD, leaving UMD out.

Let’s see if the committee has the gonads to fall to head to head.

Penn winning the Ivy improves Marylands resume and by proxy that team that beat Maryland twice.

Now the silly talk of Hopkins not getting in should be over, the last team out is going to be brutal this year.

Cooter wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 1:28 pm

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 12:01 pm I believe it is going to come down to Maryland vs. Cornell. Been saying that all along and nothing has changed my mind. Hope I'm right.

That probably would not be good for Cornell. Maryland has 5 top 20 RPI wins to Cornell's 2. Maryland has 4 losses to Cornell's 5, in either case all to top 10 RPI times. Maryland's RPI is slightly higher.
The Hopkins-Cornell comparision is closer, and in my opinion more likely to happen. Hopkins has 3 top 20 RPI wins to Cornell's 2, but both of Cornell's are in the top 10, while none of Hopkins' 3 wins are top 10. Cornell has 5 losses to Hopkins 7, and Cornell's losses are all to top 10 RPI teams, while one of Hopkins' losses is to #14 OSU. Hopkins does have a higher RPI.
I think Cornell wins this match-up.

All these teams have their little flaws, but the thing I think Hopkins' fans like you tend to overlook is that Hopkins is 8-7, and if this glaring void of being 0-6 against top 10 RPI teams.

That being said, as we all know Cornell would not be selected, because it's Hopkins.

yeah.
don't see how the wins for maryland, syracuse (or notre dame) can be put past and have any reasonable basis for being left out. that leaves cornell and hopkins, and they would seem to stack up similarly. with each having slight advantages.
while hopkins has history, so does cornell.
and if i'm not mistaken, it's a new committee every year.

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 1:35 pm

Hawkeye wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 1:33 pm

Cooter wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 1:28 pm That being said, as we all know Cornell would not be selected, because it's Hopkins.

And so the spin begins.

Coots is nervous, as he should be.

So should you be.
Terps now have a win over the Ivy league champion, not feeling as nervous

My final projection, as a visual bracket: https://imgur.com/a/j9exMJr

*Play-in Game: UMBC (6-8) @ Marist (10-6)

*Winner @ #1 Penn State (14-1)
Maryland (11-4) @ #8 Notre Dame (8-6)

Georgetown (13-4) @ #4 Duke (11-4)
Army (13-4) @ #5 Yale (12-3)

Robert Morris (9-7) @ #3 Pennsylvania (11-3)
Johns Hopkins (8-7) @ #6 Towson (11-4)

Richmond (10-6) @ #2 Virginia (13-3)
Syracuse (9-4) @ #7 Loyola (11-4)

--

I think most of the debate in terms of seeds will be the last spot and then how to sort out where teams 9-11 (whichever 3 of UND/JHU/SU/UMCP end up not seeded) end up being sent. I thought about sending Hopkins and Maryland to opposite destinations, but eventually settled on this draw.

--

Last team in: Maryland

First four out:
Cornell
Ohio State
Denver
North Carolina

--

Thanks to everyone who read (and hopefully enjoyed) my posts this season. We'll know how close I was -- and how close everyone else was -- in a few hours. For now, I'm going outside... it has been a very busy weekend of lacrosse.

Edits: typos, formatting, and I had a couple of teams' records off by one game.

Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 2:12 pm

44WeWantMore wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 2:04 pm Copying from the Big Red forum:

laxfan1313 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 10:29 pm The key appears to be adding the RPI ranking to the Quality Win ranking plus half the strength of schedule ranking. The lower the number the better. At this point, after PSU defeated JHU, the numbers for the final 2 at large spots are:

Cornell: 20.50
Notre Dame: 21.00
JHU: 24.50
Maryland: 24.50
Syracuse: 27.00

Seems to match LaxBytes.

Code: Select all

  13 Cornell               94.42
  14 Notre Dame            87.52
  15 Johns Hopkins         68.83
  16 Maryland              68.83
  18 Syracuse              53.02

Apparent separation between the top two and bottom three. Cornell and ND seem safer, and JHU, UMD, and SU need to worry. If it is strictly by the numbers above, JHU and UMD are safe. If the committee says the numbers of the bottom three are within the margin of error, and goes to H2H, then SU claims the H2H over JHU, and JHU claims the H2H over UMD, leaving UMD out.

Let’s see if the committee has the gonads to fall to head to head.

Apparently, the selection committee determines strength of schedule by determining the average RPI for a team's best 10 opponents. Before Army's victory over Lehigh & Penn's victory over Yale, Cornell was ranked #3 and Maryland #7. We'll see if today's results change these numbers. Neither favors Cornell since the Big Red beat Lehigh but the Mountain Hawks lost today, and Cornell only played Penn once. A Yale victory would have helped Cornell since the Big Red played Yale twice. Apparently, JHU's 2 wins over Maryland aren't considered "quality wins" and Cornell has two quality wins (Towson & Notre Dame). Cornell has no quality losses, JHU has two. I think Doc B's criterion re Cornell may be the most important one, unfortunately.

laxfan1313 wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 2:25 pm Cornell has no quality losses, JHU has two. I think Doc B's criterion re Cornell may be the most important one, unfortunately.

What the heck are "quality losses?"

Final RPI:

1. Penn State
2. Virginia
3. Penn
4. Duke
5. Yale
6. Towson
7. Loyola
8. Johns Hopkins
9. Notre Dame
10. Syracuse
11. Maryland
12. Cornell
13. Denver
14. Ohio State

The gap between Hopkins at 8 and Cornell at 12 is larger than the one between Virginia at 2 and Hopkins. In other words, Hopkins is closer to Virginia's RPI than it is to Cornell's. The Big Red are closer to Villanova at 17 than they are to Hopkins at 8.

Will that matter? Time will tell.

https://twitter.com/LaxFilmRoom/status/ ... 8111870976

Army wins Patriot convincingly, now the silly talk of Syracuse not getting in should be over. Also solidifies Loyola if ever a doubt

Syracuse may host a game and a good Army team will give a tough game to whatever higher seed they play

Homer wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 2:31 pm

laxfan1313 wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 2:25 pm Cornell has no quality losses, JHU has two. I think Doc B's criterion re Cornell may be the most important one, unfortunately.

What the heck are "quality losses?"

Been asking that for 20 years.

SOS is the answer. Thats the whole point to looking at that metric....it gives participation points for losing to good teams. Why a thinking person would give merit to losing games is beyond my understanding. It's ridiculous.

QW's already take care of the quality wins on a team's schedule, obviously. And QW's completely ignore when a team beats a low ranked team.

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 2:34 pm
10. Syracuse
11. Maryland
12. Cornell

https://twitter.com/LaxFilmRoom/status/ ... 8111870976

*Checks math*

MD closer to Cuse than Cornell to Maryland.

Stevens probably has the bracket correct at this point.

Laxbytes has picked the at large choice at a 46/48 clip over the past 6 seasons. According to them, after today's games, Syracuse is the last one out and the at-large bids will go to Yale, Duke, Virginia, Cornell, Loyola, Notre Dame, Johns Hopkins and Maryland. Yale, Duke & Virginia are at 100% and the next best are Cornell & Loyola at 86.25%. Don't shoot the messenger!

http://www.laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/ncaapb01.php

Homer wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 2:31 pm

laxfan1313 wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 2:25 pm Cornell has no quality losses, JHU has two. I think Doc B's criterion re Cornell may be the most important one, unfortunately.

What the heck are "quality losses?"

Not Colgate?

You’ve got Loyola in twice

laf wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 2:48 pm www.laxbytes.com/ncaa.htm

May come down right to the wire,
the old “bad loss”.

Tierney is yelling at someone. Wish him a good offseason . Looking forward to Holman getting many of his targets and building Utah into a force.

Tierney and Corrigan on sidelines are hard to watch.

Many oaches beetch at refs but dont lambast players on sidelines at every turn , Petro reminds me of James Gandolfini , good coach despite normal fan critique , he didn't give up on team and they responded.

QuakerSouth wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 2:53 pm You’ve got Loyola in twice

That’s because it was Loyola that caused this
FUBAR in the first place

10stone5 wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 2:57 pm

laf wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 2:48 pm www.laxbytes.com/ncaa.htm

May come down right to the wire,
the old “bad loss”.

Maybe. Terps lose twice to Hop whom Cuse beat.

laxfan1313 wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2019 2:41 pm Laxbytes has picked the at large choice at a 46/48 clip over the past 6 seasons. According to them, after today's games, Syracuse is the last one out and the at-large bids will go to Yale, Duke, Virginia, Cornell, Loyola, Notre Dame, Johns Hopkins and Maryland. Yale, Duke & Virginia are at 100% and the next best are Cornell & Loyola at 86.25%. Don't shoot the messenger!

http://www.laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/ncaapb01.php

I cannot envision lacrosse minds like Meade are going to pick silly numbers (SOS and RPI) over such a clear advantage in actual wins on the field (QW).

I'll be stunned if Hopkins gets in over Syracuse or Maryland.

But it's not Hopkins fault if they get in. Fix the system that rewards losing (SOS) instead of winning (QW).