Who Should Go Home and Why
At the bottom of this page are the bubble teams in order of FanLax Ranking. Like any ranking, teams can be moved up and down based on the powers given to Ws, Ls, Game Scores, or otherwise. Though factored in, FanLax doesn't emphasize game scores. We emphasize Ws and Ls.
1-
Head-to-Head - As short-cut seeking human beings, we gravitate towards head-to-head Ws and Ls. But head-to-head is only relevant when there's a tie. e.g. The D1 Women rankings before BC lost to UNC. Their resumes were all but the exact same. Both beat UNC, SU, etc. You look at it and say, They have to play each other! That is not this situation. Their isn't a "tie" among this list. And, to jump to head-to-head before there's a tie is to jump to an inevitable tail chase. e.g. Cornell beat ND who beat SU who beat JHU who beat UMD who didn't beat Cornell so... UMD must be out! It's silly. That logic is awful. And this same logic, though less egregious, holds true even when there's two teams involved in the tie.
2-
Logic First, Numbers Second - You're as good as the teams you beat, as bad as the teams you lose to. That's good logic. So if a team beats #6, #5, #4, and #3, and loses to #1, it stands to reason that they should be #2. Usually the numbers aren't this neat but the reasoning is meaningful. With this in mind, this is the logic (and numbers) that were used to rank the teams below. Cornell lost 5 games but as those games were against Top Teams, it didn't hurt them very much. The loss that hurt them the most was vs. SU and, coupled with Ws vs. ND and Towson, they have a pretty good ranking. Alternatively, SU has 3 quality Ws and only 4 losses but three of those losses are to #11 ND... and #14 UNC... and #41 Colgate. That's a problem. Not a season ending problem necessarily but, in terms of our teams-you-beat-teams-you-lose-to logic, it's a problem.
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Some Broad Brushstrokes, Some Decision Making - From where we're sitting, from our logical perspective, Cornell and UMD are the safest, JHU is relatively safe, and... ND and SU are fighting for that last spot. And we can easily list 5 reasons why ND should go home as well as 5 reasons why SU should go home. Heck, look at the Points. This is basically a
tie. And, with a tie, we should go with head-to-head... which favors Notre Dame. But we already discussed "ties" and head-to-head. Instead, remembering our mantra, you're as good as the teams you beat, as bad as the teams you lose to, and... It's really close. Wipe away the Colgate loss and Syracuse is easily a Top Team and undeniably in the tournament. But you can't just ignore a game? There is no simple answer. But from where we're sitting, the answer is either Notre Dame or Syracuse.
#5 Cornell: Beat Notre Dame and Towson, Lost to numerous top teams with a worst loss of Syracuse.
#7 Maryland: Beat Penn and UNC/Villanova, Lost to PSU as well as 2 almost top teams: Notre Dame and JHU x2.
#9 JHU: Beat UMD x2 and UNC, Lost to 2 top teams, 3 almost top teams, and a worst loss to #16 OSU.
#11 Notre Dame: Beat #4 Duke, #7 UMD, and #12 SU, Lost to 3 top teams as well as Cornell, #16 OSU, and #23 Richmond.
#12 SU: Beat #4 Duke, #5 Cornell, #9 JHU, Lost to UVA, ND, UNC, and a worst loss of #41 Colgate.
