2019 Bracketology Thread

[foreverlax]

The play in is for men only....a play-in that gets a win or two in the tournament is pretty legit, imho.

[Hawkeye]

Loved how the 4 AQ winners had to duke it out in a mid week game, a few years ago, just to put the ncaa mind at ease. While all 8 at larges get more days to prepare.

By rule, a "play-in game" must be between AQs. The lacrosse tournament currently has one less at-large bid than is required per NCAA rules. It's 9 autobids/8 at-larges right now. The loser of the play-in game technically does not make the tournament in the NCAA's eyes. It's a work around of their own rules to keep from having to expand the tournament to 18 (or more).

Contrast this with basketball, where the "First Four" involves 4 AQs and 4 at-larges. These are not true "play-in games" in that there is nothing to play into. The basketball tournament currently has 34 autobids/34 at-larges, as is required. The tournament itself consists of 68 teams. The NCAA's format choice for the First Four revolves more around getting eyeballs on the games -- one "marquee" game per night, instead of having four games involving all 16 seeds -- versus roundabout compliance with their own rules.

I am as against play-in games as anyone, but it's not that they are necessarily out to give an advantage to the at-large teams by giving them extra time to prepare. It's more nuanced than that.

[Hawkeye]

How I currently see the NCAA tournament field at the end of March... if the tournament started today:
https://imgur.com/a/lK7KA7Z

Bids by conference in my current projection:
ACC: 4 (Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke, Syracuse)
Big Ten: 3 (Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State)
Ivy League: 2 (Pennsylvania, Yale)
Patriot League: 2 (Lehigh, Loyola)

With a couple of underdogs (see: Lehigh, Delaware) currently being in line for AQs (per my stated criteria), the bubble is a few spots below where it would be if the favorites win those leagues.

RPI numbers and the media poll are starting to converge. There are only a few teams that the two still see in vastly different lights. In particular, Loyola, High Point, Villanova, and Johns Hopkins jump out at me as having significant differences between their ratings in the two.

Cornell/Syracuse next Tuesday looks like it could have major playoff implications. Both teams are squarely on the bubble right now.

[LRoggy]

How I currently see the NCAA tournament field at the end of week 8... if the tournament started today:
https://imgur.com/a/lK7KA7Z

Bids by conference in my current projection:
ACC: 4 (Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke, Syracuse)
Big Ten: 3 (Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State)
Ivy League: 2 (Pennsylvania, Yale)
Patriot League: 2 (Lehigh, Loyola)

With a couple of underdogs (see: Lehigh, Delaware) currently being in line for AQs (per my stated criteria), the bubble is a few spots below where it would be if the favorites win those leagues.

RPI numbers and the media poll are starting to converge. There are only a few teams that the two still see in vastly different lights. In particular, Loyola, High Point, Villanova, and Johns Hopkins jump out at me as having significant differences between their ratings in the two.

Cornell/Syracuse next Tuesday looks like it could have major playoff implications. Both teams are squarely on the bubble right now.

Mount St. Mary's over Hobart in the NEC AQ? Not this year.

Hobart's loss to Cornell was 19-16, not 16-10. And if Lucchesi had played the whole game we might have been talking about how high an undefeated Hobart team could rank.

And tonight the Kraus-Simmons trophy makes a ONE WAY TRIP . . . just make sure it's spit shined. It'll be here for a while.

[Hawkeye]

Mount St. Mary's over Hobart in the NEC AQ? Not this year.

See the first post of this thread. MSM is currently leading the conference. I am not making projections as to who wins AQs.

[ABV 8.3%]

Loved how the 4 AQ winners had to duke it out in a mid week game, a few years ago, just to put the ncaa mind at ease. While all 8 at larges get more days to prepare.

By rule, a "play-in game" must be between AQs. The lacrosse tournament currently has one less at-large bid than is required per NCAA rules. It's 9 autobids/8 at-larges right now. The loser of the play-in game technically does not make the tournament in the NCAA's eyes. It's a work around of their own rules to keep from having to expand the tournament to 18 (or more).

Contrast this with basketball, where the "First Four" involves 4 AQs and 4 at-larges. These are not true "play-in games" in that there is nothing to play into. The basketball tournament currently has 34 autobids/34 at-larges, as is required. The tournament itself consists of 68 teams. The NCAA's format choice for the First Four revolves more around getting eyeballs on the games -- one "marquee" game per night, instead of having four games involving all 16 seeds -- versus roundabout compliance with their own rules.

I am as against play-in games as anyone, but it's not that they are necessarily out to give an advantage to the at-large teams by giving them extra time to prepare. It's more nuanced than that.

Rules can be changed. Is there any disadvantage to an AQ playing on Wednesday and the winner playing a game 72 hours later? I don't like the comparison to basketball for a number of reasons. The basketball play in games are usually 16 or 11 seeds and a 16 seed has never won a 1st round game, except for UMBC last year. Bryant lived in a bus for a week and beat Syracuse a few years ago. Other play in teams in lacrosse have won games too, or certainly didn't embarrass themselves. ( Towson) I'm not interested in basketball, so don't know how well play in teams do, especially 16 seeds. Did they lose by only 3 or 5 points, or did they lose by 15-20?

[Hawkeye]

Rules can be changed. Is there any disadvantage to an AQ playing on Wednesday and the winner playing a game 72 hours later? I don't like the comparison to basketball for a number of reasons. The basketball play in games are usually 16 or 11 seeds and a 16 seed has never won a 1st round game, except for UMBC last year.

It's not a comparison; it's an illustration of how they apply their rules and why the situations are different.

I don't think the turnaround between lacrosse and basketball games is necessarily comparable either.

[Boxster54]

Here are my predictions right now but of course, this could and probably will change. Just too many big games remaining including conference championships. Lehigh, Towson, UNC, Cornell, Army, Hopkins can change this based on how they and other teams finish, not to mention an upset champion in a few of these leagues. Most of the usual one team conferences will be one team AQ bids. The Patriot is one bid if Loyola wins it, two if they dont since they are going. That would knock out one of the at large, maybe Cuse or Rutgers. Ivy is two bids likely which could be Yale and Penn but if Cornell wins the Ivy another one of the at large will get knocked out, this includes Penn. Yale is likely in unless they meltdown. I think if Denver doesn't win their league they will not get an at large unlike years past. Same for Albany this year, its win the AQ or they are out. The Colonial is probably one team, but if UMass wins the AQ I'm not sure what happens with Towson?

BIG 10 - Penn St
Colonial - UMass OR Towson
Ivy - Yale
MAAC - Siena OR QU
NEC - Hobart
SOCON - High Point
Patriot - Loyola or Lehigh
America East - Albany
Big East - Denver

At Large: Maryland, Ohio St, Rutgers, Penn, Duke, ND, UVA, Syracuse

[oldbartman]

NEC is Mt . St Mary's at this point.

[HopFan16]

Here are my predictions right now but of course, this could and probably will change. Just too many big games remaining including conference championships. Lehigh, Towson, UNC, Cornell, Army, Hopkins can change this based on how they and other teams finish, not to mention an upset champion in a few of these leagues. Most of the usual one team conferences will be one team AQ bids. The Patriot is one bid if Loyola wins it, two if they dont since they are going. That would knock out one of the at large, maybe Cuse or Rutgers. Ivy is two bids likely which could be Yale and Penn but if Cornell wins the Ivy another one of the at large will get knocked out, this includes Penn. Yale is likely in unless they meltdown. I think if Denver doesn't win their league they will not get an at large unlike years past. Same for Albany this year, its win the AQ or they are out. The Colonial is probably one team, but if UMass wins the AQ I'm not sure what happens with Towson?

BIG 10 - Penn St
Colonial - UMass OR Towson
Ivy - Yale
MAAC - Siena OR QU
NEC - Hobart
SOCON - High Point
Patriot - Loyola or Lehigh
America East - Albany
Big East - Denver

At Large: Maryland, Ohio St, Rutgers, Penn, Duke, ND, UVA, Syracuse

Don't shoot the messenger—I say this so that Rutgers fans don't have unreasonable expectations—but at least at this very moment, Rutgers is not sniffing an at-large berth. Hopkins is in the same boat. According to LaxBytes, Rutgers is #16 RPI, #17 SOS, #25 QW rank (Hopkins, for comparison, is #15, #8, and #24, respectively). The OSU win helped but those numbers aren't good enough right now. The Patriot League loser (assume, for now, it's Lehigh) has a much better resume. I would argue that Villanova, Army, and maybe High Point (if this particular selection committee values big wins over all else) have better tournament resumes as well. That said, yes, Rutgers has a lot of season ahead of it, and has several more chances to pick up more quality wins and improve those numbers. Same goes for Hopkins. The winner of Hopkins-Rutgers this weekend will feel better about its position—the loser will be in a tough spot.

[Boxster54]

Good points, and yes The Mount is in a good position to win their AQ. Hobart looked just terrible in the second half last night. There are way too many important games left to be played in the next few weeks that will affect the results. This thread is a fun speculation contest for us lax junkies that keeps everyone interested in many of the games to be played. I do think based on past history that Laxbytes tends to be more accurate than not in projecting the tournament field. I would say that the top 8-9 teams currently listed by Laxbytes are more than likely to make the tournament either through the AQ or at large, provided they don't implode. Teams like Hopkins, Rutgers, Cornell, Lehigh, and UNC can have a huge impact on changing the results based on how the next month goes. These teams do control their playoff destiny, but so do the teams they will face. Should be a fun run to the beginning of May, although I think we will have a better view of the tournament field in the next two weeks.

http://laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/ncaapb01.php

[laxreference]

Here are the resumes for the 5 teams that were mentioned: Rutgers, Hopkins, Army, Lehigh, High_Point

BubbleComp_Rutgers_Johns_Hopkins_Army_Lehigh_High_Point_20190403.png (18.71 KiB) Viewed 3115 times

Army has the best overall resume based on Strength-of-Record with High Point a close second. They have also been the top team in this group in terms of Adj Efficiency.

Winner of RU/JHU will definitely get a bump, but probably not to the point that they'd dethrone the Black Knights.

[HopFan16]

Here are the resumes for the 5 teams that were mentioned: Rutgers, Hopkins, Army, Lehigh, High_Point


BubbleComp_Rutgers_Johns_Hopkins_Army_Lehigh_High_Point_20190403.png


Army has the best overall resume based on Strength-of-Record with High Point a close second. They have also been the top team in this group in terms of Adj Efficiency.

Winner of RU/JHU will definitely get a bump, but probably not to the point that they'd dethrone the Black Knights.

Adjusted efficiency and ELO ratings are not selection criteria, as far as I know.

[laxreference]

Adjusted efficiency and ELO ratings are not selection criteria, as far as I know.

I prefer to traffic in "who should be in" vs "who the committee will pick". Regardless, nothing wrong with having a full picture of a team's resume vs just the criteria that committee uses.

[10stone5]

Here are the resumes for the 5 teams that were mentioned: Rutgers, Hopkins, Army, Lehigh, High_Point


BubbleComp_Rutgers_Johns_Hopkins_Army_Lehigh_High_Point_20190403.png


Army has the best overall resume based on Strength-of-Record with High Point a close second. They have also been the top team in this group in terms of Adj Efficiency.

Winner of RU/JHU will definitely get a bump, but probably not to the point that they'd dethrone the Black Knights.

One quibble.
If High Point does not get to 20 or better RPI, they won’t at large eligible.

[laxreference]

Yeah, that's true. I only included them because someone mentioned them as a maybe bubble team. They will end up with some really strong wins, but the rest of their schedule is cupcake-city. I'd be surprised if they ended up as an at-large.

[Homer]

One quibble.
If High Point does not get to 20 or better RPI, they won’t at large eligible.

That is not actually a rule, as far as I'm aware. I agree it would be a very unlikely scenario.

[Hawkeye]

It is my opinion that High Point is now AQ or bust. They are currently on the wrong side of the bubble and have few (if any) major chances left to improve their resume. The other teams in discussion for the last at-large spots will all have multiple games against top 20 or close opponents left.

[Big Dog]

deleted

[Hawkeye]

How I currently see the NCAA tournament field with a month left... if the tournament started today:
https://imgur.com/a/YYIN35B

Bids by conference in my current projection:
ACC: 4 (Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Syracuse)
Big Ten: 3 (Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State)
Colonial: 2 (Delaware, Towson)
Ivy League: 2 (Pennsylvania, Yale)

With Delaware currently being in line for an AQ (per my stated criteria), the bubble is a spot below where it would be if Towson wins the Colonial.

I stand firm in my belief that High Point can no longer earn an at-large bid. I believe that we can just about add Denver to this group too... they have no margin for error remaining. The group of teams that seem to be in a position to reasonably grab an at-large spot is dwindling pretty quickly now.

Out of the teams currently on the outside looking in, I'd say Cornell, Hopkins, UNC, and Rutgers have chances left to majorly help their resumes. Most other teams currently on the wrong side of the bubble are counting on circumstances going their way (if they don't get an AQ).

Cornell @ Syracuse tomorrow is between my current first team out and last team in. This game could have huge implications come selection Sunday.