2019 Bracketology Thread
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
The play in is for men only....a play-in that gets a win or two in the tournament is pretty legit, imho.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
By rule, a "play-in game" must be between AQs. The lacrosse tournament currently has one less at-large bid than is required per NCAA rules. It's 9 autobids/8 at-larges right now. The loser of the play-in game technically does not make the tournament in the NCAA's eyes. It's a work around of their own rules to keep from having to expand the tournament to 18 (or more).
Contrast this with basketball, where the "First Four" involves 4 AQs and 4 at-larges. These are not true "play-in games" in that there is nothing to play into. The basketball tournament currently has 34 autobids/34 at-larges, as is required. The tournament itself consists of 68 teams. The NCAA's format choice for the First Four revolves more around getting eyeballs on the games -- one "marquee" game per night, instead of having four games involving all 16 seeds -- versus roundabout compliance with their own rules.
I am as against play-in games as anyone, but it's not that they are necessarily out to give an advantage to the at-large teams by giving them extra time to prepare. It's more nuanced than that.
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2019 Georgia Tech lacrosse final record: 18-2; MCLA semifinalist
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2019 Georgia Tech lacrosse final record: 18-2; MCLA semifinalist
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College lacrosse television schedules: https://markmhart9.wixsite.com/mysite
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
How I currently see the NCAA tournament field at the end of March... if the tournament started today:
https://imgur.com/a/lK7KA7Z
Bids by conference in my current projection:
ACC: 4 (Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke, Syracuse)
Big Ten: 3 (Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State)
Ivy League: 2 (Pennsylvania, Yale)
Patriot League: 2 (Lehigh, Loyola)
With a couple of underdogs (see: Lehigh, Delaware) currently being in line for AQs (per my stated criteria), the bubble is a few spots below where it would be if the favorites win those leagues.
RPI numbers and the media poll are starting to converge. There are only a few teams that the two still see in vastly different lights. In particular, Loyola, High Point, Villanova, and Johns Hopkins jump out at me as having significant differences between their ratings in the two.
Cornell/Syracuse next Tuesday looks like it could have major playoff implications. Both teams are squarely on the bubble right now.
https://imgur.com/a/lK7KA7Z
Bids by conference in my current projection:
ACC: 4 (Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke, Syracuse)
Big Ten: 3 (Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State)
Ivy League: 2 (Pennsylvania, Yale)
Patriot League: 2 (Lehigh, Loyola)
With a couple of underdogs (see: Lehigh, Delaware) currently being in line for AQs (per my stated criteria), the bubble is a few spots below where it would be if the favorites win those leagues.
RPI numbers and the media poll are starting to converge. There are only a few teams that the two still see in vastly different lights. In particular, Loyola, High Point, Villanova, and Johns Hopkins jump out at me as having significant differences between their ratings in the two.
Cornell/Syracuse next Tuesday looks like it could have major playoff implications. Both teams are squarely on the bubble right now.
Last edited by Hawkeye on Tue Apr 02, 2019 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
Georgia Tech alumnus
2019 Georgia Tech lacrosse final record: 18-2; MCLA semifinalist
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College lacrosse television schedules: https://markmhart9.wixsite.com/mysite
2019 Georgia Tech lacrosse final record: 18-2; MCLA semifinalist
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College lacrosse television schedules: https://markmhart9.wixsite.com/mysite
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Mount St. Mary's over Hobart in the NEC AQ? Not this year.Hawkeye wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2019 10:42 am How I currently see the NCAA tournament field at the end of week 8... if the tournament started today:
https://imgur.com/a/lK7KA7Z
Bids by conference in my current projection:
ACC: 4 (Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke, Syracuse)
Big Ten: 3 (Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State)
Ivy League: 2 (Pennsylvania, Yale)
Patriot League: 2 (Lehigh, Loyola)
With a couple of underdogs (see: Lehigh, Delaware) currently being in line for AQs (per my stated criteria), the bubble is a few spots below where it would be if the favorites win those leagues.
RPI numbers and the media poll are starting to converge. There are only a few teams that the two still see in vastly different lights. In particular, Loyola, High Point, Villanova, and Johns Hopkins jump out at me as having significant differences between their ratings in the two.
Cornell/Syracuse next Tuesday looks like it could have major playoff implications. Both teams are squarely on the bubble right now.
Hobart's loss to Cornell was 19-16, not 16-10. And if Lucchesi had played the whole game we might have been talking about how high an undefeated Hobart team could rank.
And tonight the Kraus-Simmons trophy makes a ONE WAY TRIP . . . just make sure it's spit shined. It'll be here for a while.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
See the first post of this thread. MSM is currently leading the conference. I am not making projections as to who wins AQs.
Georgia Tech alumnus
2019 Georgia Tech lacrosse final record: 18-2; MCLA semifinalist
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College lacrosse television schedules: https://markmhart9.wixsite.com/mysite
2019 Georgia Tech lacrosse final record: 18-2; MCLA semifinalist
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College lacrosse television schedules: https://markmhart9.wixsite.com/mysite
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Rules can be changed. Is there any disadvantage to an AQ playing on Wednesday and the winner playing a game 72 hours later? I don't like the comparison to basketball for a number of reasons. The basketball play in games are usually 16 or 11 seeds and a 16 seed has never won a 1st round game, except for UMBC last year. Bryant lived in a bus for a week and beat Syracuse a few years ago. Other play in teams in lacrosse have won games too, or certainly didn't embarrass themselves. ( Towson) I'm not interested in basketball, so don't know how well play in teams do, especially 16 seeds. Did they lose by only 3 or 5 points, or did they lose by 15-20?Hawkeye wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2019 10:29 amBy rule, a "play-in game" must be between AQs. The lacrosse tournament currently has one less at-large bid than is required per NCAA rules. It's 9 autobids/8 at-larges right now. The loser of the play-in game technically does not make the tournament in the NCAA's eyes. It's a work around of their own rules to keep from having to expand the tournament to 18 (or more).
Contrast this with basketball, where the "First Four" involves 4 AQs and 4 at-larges. These are not true "play-in games" in that there is nothing to play into. The basketball tournament currently has 34 autobids/34 at-larges, as is required. The tournament itself consists of 68 teams. The NCAA's format choice for the First Four revolves more around getting eyeballs on the games -- one "marquee" game per night, instead of having four games involving all 16 seeds -- versus roundabout compliance with their own rules.
I am as against play-in games as anyone, but it's not that they are necessarily out to give an advantage to the at-large teams by giving them extra time to prepare. It's more nuanced than that.
oligarchy thanks you......same as it evah was
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
It's not a comparison; it's an illustration of how they apply their rules and why the situations are different.ABV 8.3% wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:00 pm Rules can be changed. Is there any disadvantage to an AQ playing on Wednesday and the winner playing a game 72 hours later? I don't like the comparison to basketball for a number of reasons. The basketball play in games are usually 16 or 11 seeds and a 16 seed has never won a 1st round game, except for UMBC last year.
I don't think the turnaround between lacrosse and basketball games is necessarily comparable either.
Georgia Tech alumnus
2019 Georgia Tech lacrosse final record: 18-2; MCLA semifinalist
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College lacrosse television schedules: https://markmhart9.wixsite.com/mysite
2019 Georgia Tech lacrosse final record: 18-2; MCLA semifinalist
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College lacrosse television schedules: https://markmhart9.wixsite.com/mysite
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Here are my predictions right now but of course, this could and probably will change. Just too many big games remaining including conference championships. Lehigh, Towson, UNC, Cornell, Army, Hopkins can change this based on how they and other teams finish, not to mention an upset champion in a few of these leagues. Most of the usual one team conferences will be one team AQ bids. The Patriot is one bid if Loyola wins it, two if they dont since they are going. That would knock out one of the at large, maybe Cuse or Rutgers. Ivy is two bids likely which could be Yale and Penn but if Cornell wins the Ivy another one of the at large will get knocked out, this includes Penn. Yale is likely in unless they meltdown. I think if Denver doesn't win their league they will not get an at large unlike years past. Same for Albany this year, its win the AQ or they are out. The Colonial is probably one team, but if UMass wins the AQ I'm not sure what happens with Towson?
BIG 10 - Penn St
Colonial - UMass OR Towson
Ivy - Yale
MAAC - Siena OR QU
NEC - Hobart
SOCON - High Point
Patriot - Loyola or Lehigh
America East - Albany
Big East - Denver
At Large: Maryland, Ohio St, Rutgers, Penn, Duke, ND, UVA, Syracuse
BIG 10 - Penn St
Colonial - UMass OR Towson
Ivy - Yale
MAAC - Siena OR QU
NEC - Hobart
SOCON - High Point
Patriot - Loyola or Lehigh
America East - Albany
Big East - Denver
At Large: Maryland, Ohio St, Rutgers, Penn, Duke, ND, UVA, Syracuse
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
NEC is Mt . St Mary's at this point.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Don't shoot the messenger—I say this so that Rutgers fans don't have unreasonable expectations—but at least at this very moment, Rutgers is not sniffing an at-large berth. Hopkins is in the same boat. According to LaxBytes, Rutgers is #16 RPI, #17 SOS, #25 QW rank (Hopkins, for comparison, is #15, #8, and #24, respectively). The OSU win helped but those numbers aren't good enough right now. The Patriot League loser (assume, for now, it's Lehigh) has a much better resume. I would argue that Villanova, Army, and maybe High Point (if this particular selection committee values big wins over all else) have better tournament resumes as well. That said, yes, Rutgers has a lot of season ahead of it, and has several more chances to pick up more quality wins and improve those numbers. Same goes for Hopkins. The winner of Hopkins-Rutgers this weekend will feel better about its position—the loser will be in a tough spot.Boxster54 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2019 8:15 pm Here are my predictions right now but of course, this could and probably will change. Just too many big games remaining including conference championships. Lehigh, Towson, UNC, Cornell, Army, Hopkins can change this based on how they and other teams finish, not to mention an upset champion in a few of these leagues. Most of the usual one team conferences will be one team AQ bids. The Patriot is one bid if Loyola wins it, two if they dont since they are going. That would knock out one of the at large, maybe Cuse or Rutgers. Ivy is two bids likely which could be Yale and Penn but if Cornell wins the Ivy another one of the at large will get knocked out, this includes Penn. Yale is likely in unless they meltdown. I think if Denver doesn't win their league they will not get an at large unlike years past. Same for Albany this year, its win the AQ or they are out. The Colonial is probably one team, but if UMass wins the AQ I'm not sure what happens with Towson?
BIG 10 - Penn St
Colonial - UMass OR Towson
Ivy - Yale
MAAC - Siena OR QU
NEC - Hobart
SOCON - High Point
Patriot - Loyola or Lehigh
America East - Albany
Big East - Denver
At Large: Maryland, Ohio St, Rutgers, Penn, Duke, ND, UVA, Syracuse
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Good points, and yes The Mount is in a good position to win their AQ. Hobart looked just terrible in the second half last night. There are way too many important games left to be played in the next few weeks that will affect the results. This thread is a fun speculation contest for us lax junkies that keeps everyone interested in many of the games to be played. I do think based on past history that Laxbytes tends to be more accurate than not in projecting the tournament field. I would say that the top 8-9 teams currently listed by Laxbytes are more than likely to make the tournament either through the AQ or at large, provided they don't implode. Teams like Hopkins, Rutgers, Cornell, Lehigh, and UNC can have a huge impact on changing the results based on how the next month goes. These teams do control their playoff destiny, but so do the teams they will face. Should be a fun run to the beginning of May, although I think we will have a better view of the tournament field in the next two weeks.
http://laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/ncaapb01.php
http://laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/ncaapb01.php
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Here are the resumes for the 5 teams that were mentioned: Rutgers, Hopkins, Army, Lehigh, High_Point
Army has the best overall resume based on Strength-of-Record with High Point a close second. They have also been the top team in this group in terms of Adj Efficiency.
Winner of RU/JHU will definitely get a bump, but probably not to the point that they'd dethrone the Black Knights.
Army has the best overall resume based on Strength-of-Record with High Point a close second. They have also been the top team in this group in terms of Adj Efficiency.
Winner of RU/JHU will definitely get a bump, but probably not to the point that they'd dethrone the Black Knights.
Data Engineer/Lacrosse Fan --- Twitter: @laxreference --- Informed fans get Expected Goals, the new daily newsletter from LacrosseReference
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Adjusted efficiency and ELO ratings are not selection criteria, as far as I know.laxreference wrote: ↑Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:11 pm Here are the resumes for the 5 teams that were mentioned: Rutgers, Hopkins, Army, Lehigh, High_Point
BubbleComp_Rutgers_Johns_Hopkins_Army_Lehigh_High_Point_20190403.png
Army has the best overall resume based on Strength-of-Record with High Point a close second. They have also been the top team in this group in terms of Adj Efficiency.
Winner of RU/JHU will definitely get a bump, but probably not to the point that they'd dethrone the Black Knights.
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
I prefer to traffic in "who should be in" vs "who the committee will pick". Regardless, nothing wrong with having a full picture of a team's resume vs just the criteria that committee uses.
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
One quibble.laxreference wrote: ↑Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:11 pm Here are the resumes for the 5 teams that were mentioned: Rutgers, Hopkins, Army, Lehigh, High_Point
BubbleComp_Rutgers_Johns_Hopkins_Army_Lehigh_High_Point_20190403.png
Army has the best overall resume based on Strength-of-Record with High Point a close second. They have also been the top team in this group in terms of Adj Efficiency.
Winner of RU/JHU will definitely get a bump, but probably not to the point that they'd dethrone the Black Knights.
If High Point does not get to 20 or better RPI, they won’t at large eligible.
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Yeah, that's true. I only included them because someone mentioned them as a maybe bubble team. They will end up with some really strong wins, but the rest of their schedule is cupcake-city. I'd be surprised if they ended up as an at-large.
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
It is my opinion that High Point is now AQ or bust. They are currently on the wrong side of the bubble and have few (if any) major chances left to improve their resume. The other teams in discussion for the last at-large spots will all have multiple games against top 20 or close opponents left.
Georgia Tech alumnus
2019 Georgia Tech lacrosse final record: 18-2; MCLA semifinalist
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College lacrosse television schedules: https://markmhart9.wixsite.com/mysite
2019 Georgia Tech lacrosse final record: 18-2; MCLA semifinalist
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College lacrosse television schedules: https://markmhart9.wixsite.com/mysite
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
How I currently see the NCAA tournament field with a month left... if the tournament started today:
https://imgur.com/a/YYIN35B
Bids by conference in my current projection:
ACC: 4 (Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Syracuse)
Big Ten: 3 (Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State)
Colonial: 2 (Delaware, Towson)
Ivy League: 2 (Pennsylvania, Yale)
With Delaware currently being in line for an AQ (per my stated criteria), the bubble is a spot below where it would be if Towson wins the Colonial.
I stand firm in my belief that High Point can no longer earn an at-large bid. I believe that we can just about add Denver to this group too... they have no margin for error remaining. The group of teams that seem to be in a position to reasonably grab an at-large spot is dwindling pretty quickly now.
Out of the teams currently on the outside looking in, I'd say Cornell, Hopkins, UNC, and Rutgers have chances left to majorly help their resumes. Most other teams currently on the wrong side of the bubble are counting on circumstances going their way (if they don't get an AQ).
Cornell @ Syracuse tomorrow is between my current first team out and last team in. This game could have huge implications come selection Sunday.
https://imgur.com/a/YYIN35B
Bids by conference in my current projection:
ACC: 4 (Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Syracuse)
Big Ten: 3 (Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State)
Colonial: 2 (Delaware, Towson)
Ivy League: 2 (Pennsylvania, Yale)
With Delaware currently being in line for an AQ (per my stated criteria), the bubble is a spot below where it would be if Towson wins the Colonial.
I stand firm in my belief that High Point can no longer earn an at-large bid. I believe that we can just about add Denver to this group too... they have no margin for error remaining. The group of teams that seem to be in a position to reasonably grab an at-large spot is dwindling pretty quickly now.
Out of the teams currently on the outside looking in, I'd say Cornell, Hopkins, UNC, and Rutgers have chances left to majorly help their resumes. Most other teams currently on the wrong side of the bubble are counting on circumstances going their way (if they don't get an AQ).
Cornell @ Syracuse tomorrow is between my current first team out and last team in. This game could have huge implications come selection Sunday.
Georgia Tech alumnus
2019 Georgia Tech lacrosse final record: 18-2; MCLA semifinalist
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College lacrosse television schedules: https://markmhart9.wixsite.com/mysite
2019 Georgia Tech lacrosse final record: 18-2; MCLA semifinalist
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College lacrosse television schedules: https://markmhart9.wixsite.com/mysite