Johns Hopkins 2025

[norcalhop]

The undergraduate transfer portal will certainly make things very interesting going forward.

they've made things interesting for decades. what'll be a bit more up in the air and worth watching is how coaches and programs adjust without having gobs of grad students available.

we're just starting to see star undergraduate players transfer in higher volumes in the other DI sports vs prior years due in particular to NIL and playing time changes. lacrosse will follow accordingly.

ok, but which sports?

Baseball, Basketball, Football for now. I'm sure there are other sports I'm not following as closely.

ok, but those sports are unique (along with women's hoops and ice hockey) in that they carried a year in residence limitation. so if you wanted to transfer, you had to sit a year. then in jan 2020 the doj told the nc$$ in no uncertain terms if they liked their anti-trust protections, then the sit out rule (among other things) was to go bye bye. the portal was created at the same time, but it was the no sit out for those sports that's responsible for the increase you saw, because without that nil, portals, etc. wouldn't have those sports in the transfer tsunami.

lacrosse has always been no sit out. the exception was being able to transfer intra-conference. conferences, not coaches necessarily, made that hard to impossible. that's now gone, but not really material.

the portal hasn't changed any of those things for lacrosse. but it's a cool name, makes us feel like we're watching star trek.

if nil comes into play as it has in the revenue sports, then that movement will be because of... nil.

It's a trickle at first followed by a gradual change in behavior. Compare number of players now in transfer portal for lacrosse vs 3 years ago even taking out the graduate students for decent division 1 programs (not just the smaller schools like Canisius). NIL is part of that but not the end all be all. It takes acceptance and time. When the current cohort of graduate transfers go, coaches will double down on recruiting undergrad transfers even more. The floodgates will open when you see actual star players in higher volumes begin transferring at the undergraduate level. It's a matter of if not when.

sure, speculation and that's one of the things the board is for. maybe somebody will make a comparison to how it's going on the trend. i don't see any big change from the past, but am speculating. nil according to some people has gotten substantial in a few places, i'm blind to that but also skeptical.

most athletes in football and hoops don't find a suitable home for them, much less an upgrade or lateral move. in lacrosse, i suspect most athletes will find a spot to continue their education, and hopefully one where their lacrosse and/or other experiences are better suited for them.

Most people won't transfer. The absolute volume of transfers and star quality of players changes year over year (5 star recruits or stars at the college level) is what matters.

Basketball transfer rankings and coverage continues to grow. https://247sports.com/season/2024-baske ... portaltop/. From the schools, you can see a glut of what I would say lateral moves. Wisconsin to UMiami, USC to UCLA, Arizona to IU, Ohio State to Tennessee, etc.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footb ... ting-paid/

Link above gives rough proxies on payouts.

As for NIL, I can personally tell you certain high level (but not say NBA lottery draft picks) have gotten a few million to transfer to UNC.

[wgdsr]

The undergraduate transfer portal will certainly make things very interesting going forward.

they've made things interesting for decades. what'll be a bit more up in the air and worth watching is how coaches and programs adjust without having gobs of grad students available.

we're just starting to see star undergraduate players transfer in higher volumes in the other DI sports vs prior years due in particular to NIL and playing time changes. lacrosse will follow accordingly.

ok, but which sports?

Baseball, Basketball, Football for now. I'm sure there are other sports I'm not following as closely.

ok, but those sports are unique (along with women's hoops and ice hockey) in that they carried a year in residence limitation. so if you wanted to transfer, you had to sit a year. then in jan 2020 the doj told the nc$$ in no uncertain terms if they liked their anti-trust protections, then the sit out rule (among other things) was to go bye bye. the portal was created at the same time, but it was the no sit out for those sports that's responsible for the increase you saw, because without that nil, portals, etc. wouldn't have those sports in the transfer tsunami.

lacrosse has always been no sit out. the exception was being able to transfer intra-conference. conferences, not coaches necessarily, made that hard to impossible. that's now gone, but not really material.

the portal hasn't changed any of those things for lacrosse. but it's a cool name, makes us feel like we're watching star trek.

if nil comes into play as it has in the revenue sports, then that movement will be because of... nil.

It's a trickle at first followed by a gradual change in behavior. Compare number of players now in transfer portal for lacrosse vs 3 years ago even taking out the graduate students for decent division 1 programs (not just the smaller schools like Canisius). NIL is part of that but not the end all be all. It takes acceptance and time. When the current cohort of graduate transfers go, coaches will double down on recruiting undergrad transfers even more. The floodgates will open when you see actual star players in higher volumes begin transferring at the undergraduate level. It's a matter of if not when.

sure, speculation and that's one of the things the board is for. maybe somebody will make a comparison to how it's going on the trend. i don't see any big change from the past, but am speculating. nil according to some people has gotten substantial in a few places, i'm blind to that but also skeptical.

most athletes in football and hoops don't find a suitable home for them, much less an upgrade or lateral move. in lacrosse, i suspect most athletes will find a spot to continue their education, and hopefully one where their lacrosse and/or other experiences are better suited for them.

Most people won't transfer. The absolute volume of transfers and star quality of players changes year over year (5 star recruits or stars at the college level) is what matters.

Basketball transfer rankings and coverage continues to grow. https://247sports.com/season/2024-baske ... portaltop/. From the schools, you can see a glut of what I would say lateral moves. Wisconsin to UMiami, USC to UCLA, Arizona to IU, Ohio State to Tennessee, etc.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footb ... ting-paid/

Link above gives rough proxies on payouts.

As for NIL, I can personally tell you certain high level (but not say NBA lottery draft picks) have gotten a few million to transfer to UNC.

yeah, there's a lot of money in the revenue sports. look at the post before mine. house vs nc$$ is pushing toward getting settled. that's not gonna be much money for big schools ($2-3 million per year?), but the other deal that's getting wrapped up so the nc$$ can get congress to close out or narrow further lawsuits is revenue share of $20 million per year.
so:
- the big players and those that want to keep up are going to now have a cut out of $20 million or something substantial. out of budget.
- it'll likely largely make sense to direct more nil money directly to ath depts, but 8 figures is 8 figures.
- so non-revenue sports rely on: the ath dept for funding, as well as alums.
- even small schools will be caught up in this somewhat.

lacrosse... what's the end game? no change to programs in general, and just a never ending supply of funding for the program and then to buy players? me, i doubt that. some people are probably going to be very surprised by the upheaval. might certainly be that programs are going to need to be self-funded or watch out.

nil was always a placeholder until revenue sharing came about. looks like we got to the cusp of this pretty quickly. fall of 2025. might need seatbelts.

[coda]

The undergraduate transfer portal will certainly make things very interesting going forward.

they've made things interesting for decades. what'll be a bit more up in the air and worth watching is how coaches and programs adjust without having gobs of grad students available.

we're just starting to see star undergraduate players transfer in higher volumes in the other DI sports vs prior years due in particular to NIL and playing time changes. lacrosse will follow accordingly.

ok, but which sports?

Baseball, Basketball, Football for now. I'm sure there are other sports I'm not following as closely.

ok, but those sports are unique (along with women's hoops and ice hockey) in that they carried a year in residence limitation. so if you wanted to transfer, you had to sit a year. then in jan 2020 the doj told the nc$$ in no uncertain terms if they liked their anti-trust protections, then the sit out rule (among other things) was to go bye bye. the portal was created at the same time, but it was the no sit out for those sports that's responsible for the increase you saw, because without that nil, portals, etc. wouldn't have those sports in the transfer tsunami.

lacrosse has always been no sit out. the exception was being able to transfer intra-conference. conferences, not coaches necessarily, made that hard to impossible. that's now gone, but not really material.

the portal hasn't changed any of those things for lacrosse. but it's a cool name, makes us feel like we're watching star trek.

if nil comes into play as it has in the revenue sports, then that movement will be because of... nil.

It's a trickle at first followed by a gradual change in behavior. Compare number of players now in transfer portal for lacrosse vs 3 years ago even taking out the graduate students for decent division 1 programs (not just the smaller schools like Canisius). NIL is part of that but not the end all be all. It takes acceptance and time. When the current cohort of graduate transfers go, coaches will double down on recruiting undergrad transfers even more. The floodgates will open when you see actual star players in higher volumes begin transferring at the undergraduate level. It's a matter of if not when.

sure, speculation and that's one of the things the board is for. maybe somebody will make a comparison to how it's going on the trend. i don't see any big change from the past, but am speculating. nil according to some people has gotten substantial in a few places, i'm blind to that but also skeptical.

most athletes in football and hoops don't find a suitable home for them, much less an upgrade or lateral move. in lacrosse, i suspect most athletes will find a spot to continue their education, and hopefully one where their lacrosse and/or other experiences are better suited for them.

Most people won't transfer. The absolute volume of transfers and star quality of players changes year over year (5 star recruits or stars at the college level) is what matters.

Basketball transfer rankings and coverage continues to grow. https://247sports.com/season/2024-baske ... portaltop/. From the schools, you can see a glut of what I would say lateral moves. Wisconsin to UMiami, USC to UCLA, Arizona to IU, Ohio State to Tennessee, etc.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footb ... ting-paid/

Link above gives rough proxies on payouts.

As for NIL, I can personally tell you certain high level (but not say NBA lottery draft picks) have gotten a few million to transfer to UNC.

interestingly, the guys that are not 1st round picks can be worth more to a program. A guy like Oscar Tshiebwe can make more money staying in college, than playing in the NBA. That is why he returned after being the Player of the Year. He is making 560K for the Pacers. He was easily clearing 7 figures at Kentucky. Elite college players, but fringe NBA guys. Its the new paradigm.

[BlueJaySince1947]

The one bright side is I don't care for any of the remaining games. Yes, I'll root for Maryland and Denver, but I won't go out of my way to watch the game now and will fully enjoy memorial day with the family.

No true Blue Jay fan would EVER root for the TWERPS.

[norcalhop]

The one bright side is I don't care for any of the remaining games. Yes, I'll root for Maryland and Denver, but I won't go out of my way to watch the game now and will fully enjoy memorial day with the family.

No true Blue Jay fan would EVER root for the TWERPS.

Meh, we all evolve. Especially those of us with deep maryland ties..=).

[51percentcorn]

Tomorrow could be an interesting day for the university.

Stevens will probably roll out 2025 lookaheads next week where we'll see in numerical terms what the Jays and rivals are losing to graduation and what the staff has to replace. It has to be a good time to be a veteran stud college lacrosse player with eligibility remaining and NIL out there because I'm guessing a lot of teams have big needs and lots of $ freed up with graduation.

There's also some ncaa litigation out there which the bigger conferences are settling. House or something. I'm not sure how much impact it has on Hopkins because the school is mostly d3 but our rivals in the big ten and acc especially should be on the hook for a nice piece of $.

????? First off - who cares what Stevens thinks? '16 or Potomac River can give you a better run down of what Hopkins loses - who might stay for a year of eligibility - and what rising sophs or incoming recruits might play as well as anyone else. There's an entire thread devoted to what all the teams lose in terms of eligibility next year. And why tomorrow (or today)?

As far as the lawsuit - have you seen or heard about the progress of lawsuits in the US? I don't think Ohio State or Michigan is going to be surrendering cash anytime soon and most of the articles seem to imply the biggest concern is the non power 5 conferences are the ones going to get hosed.

[jhu06]

xanders has a writeup/2025 lookahead he wants $150 a year for as part of a subscription to his site. I'll pass but if one of you that subscribes wants to clue us into whatever he has there we don't that would be good.

[HopFan16]

xanders has a writeup/2025 lookahead he wants $150 a year for as part of a subscription to his site. I'll pass but if one of you that subscribes wants to clue us into whatever he has there we don't that would be good.

If you want to know what he thinks about our recruits, then pay for the site. Otherwise — no one's forcing you to buy anything.

I already previewed who in my opinion might make an impact as freshmen next year and for the most part it lines up with Ty. McCleary, DiCicco, Hobot are ones to watch, but there could be others (Crogan, Gregorek, etc.) And then there are a handful of rising sophomores who essentially took redshirts this year and could get into the mix in 2025: Iler, Jewell, etc.

Bauer, Melendez, and Deans are all coming back. Apparently still waiting for the official word on Smith, who is in the process.

Szuluk got picked up by the PLL Redwoods, joining Ierlan and Degnon out west.

[coda]

xanders has a writeup/2025 lookahead he wants $150 a year for as part of a subscription to his site. I'll pass but if one of you that subscribes wants to clue us into whatever he has there we don't that would be good.

If you want to know what he thinks about our recruits, then pay for the site. Otherwise — no one's forcing you to buy anything.

I already previewed who in my opinion might make an impact as freshmen next year and for the most part it lines up with Ty. McCleary, DiCicco, Hobot are ones to watch, but there could be others (Crogan, Gregorek, etc.) And then there are a handful of rising sophomores who essentially took redshirts this year and could get into the mix in 2025: Iler, Jewell, etc.

Bauer, Melendez, and Deans are all coming back. Apparently still waiting for the official word on Smith, who is in the process.

Szuluk got picked up by the PLL Redwoods, joining Ierlan and Degnon out west.

One thing DiCicco has at his advantage is the system he has been running. It was something I didnt consider on Kilrain. Lawrenceville runs some of the most complex defensive schemes, you will see. So he will come to Hopkins and his head is not going to be swimming.

[PotomacRiver]

One thing DiCicco has at his advantage is the system he has been running. It was something I didnt consider on Kilrain. Lawrenceville runs some of the most complex defensive schemes, you will see. So he will come to Hopkins and his head is not going to be swimming.

Interesting point - it often seems to take defensive players a bit longer to develop because there's the double whammy of a massive step-up in player/ball movement speed plus much more complicated slide schemes than they're used to in high school (I'm sure this varies depending on the high school program). Koesterer has done a really good job balancing a scheme that's not too simple but also not so overly complex that players can't execute. I think part of what helps is that he seems to err on the side of over-sliding rather than having players constantly decide whether to go or not go depending on matchups (this seemed to be a problem with latter era Petro defenses where you could see them over-thinking in real time).

[blx9]

Crawleys gotta go, no?

[nyjay]

The one bright side is I don't care for any of the remaining games. Yes, I'll root for Maryland and Denver, but I won't go out of my way to watch the game now and will fully enjoy memorial day with the family.

No true Blue Jay fan would EVER root for the TWERPS.

Meh, we all evolve. Especially those of us with deep maryland ties..=).

Yeah - underwhelming set of games. I’m for the winner of the UVa/UMD game. Have a kid at UVa (obviously not good enough to play) but who has HS teammates on the Terps. So one of those two. Had enough of ND. And Denver? Just a hard no.

[nyjay]

Crawleys gotta go, no?

No

[OCanada]

Crawleys gotta go, no?

No

From my perspective too many are scapegoating Assistant Coaches rather than placing responsibility where it belongs

[blx9]

Crawleys gotta go, no?

No

Team really struggled on offense down the stretch… looked predictable and unsure of themselves at times. I think 06 said he’d be a great OC at a patriot league school lol. So true.

[DocBarrister]

Crawleys gotta go, no?

No

From my perspective too many are scapegoating Assistant Coaches rather than placing responsibility where it belongs

Completely agree.

DocBarrister

[norcalhop]

One thing DiCicco has at his advantage is the system he has been running. It was something I didnt consider on Kilrain. Lawrenceville runs some of the most complex defensive schemes, you will see. So he will come to Hopkins and his head is not going to be swimming.

Interesting point - it often seems to take defensive players a bit longer to develop because there's the double whammy of a massive step-up in player/ball movement speed plus much more complicated slide schemes than they're used to in high school (I'm sure this varies depending on the high school program). Koesterer has done a really good job balancing a scheme that's not too simple but also not so overly complex that players can't execute. I think part of what helps is that he seems to err on the side of over-sliding rather than having players constantly decide whether to go or not go depending on matchups (this seemed to be a problem with latter era Petro defenses where you could see them over-thinking in real time).

The thing I struggle with is how much better has the defense really progressed versus Ierlan covering for weaknesses? Probably a bit of both.

It's not like teams were not getting shots or even bad shots out of possessions in the tournament for the most part vs Hopkins.

[51percentcorn]

Chayse was fantastic on Sunday - no question - IMO his very best outing of the year in terms of saves. Clearly there were 3 or rmore times where he stole one. I would not agree that this was the norm for the season and the defense in front of him was pretty darn good. You give up 14 twice/13 once and those games are against 2 of the semi finalists and the other was a quarterfinalist. It's not all the goalie - he was a big part but as '16 pointed out before -the possession time and opportunities can take their toll.

From my perspective too many are scapegoating Assistant Coaches rather than placing responsibility where it belongs

I can only imagine the scathing reply this will generate but it seems to me you are trying to have it both ways. I believe I could produce multiple posts by a certain someone excoriating Milliman for the Junior hire and giving mega credit to Crawley for the resurgence starting in '23. It remains a little unclear whether you are taking Milliman to task for the offense entirely or the UVA game. It was the EXACT same offensive team as last year - with English completely gone by injury but the addition of Chauvette produced something like 14 goals - other than that it was the EXACT same team. So while I am not blaming anything on Crawley - it does seem logical that if he gets the credit for '23 - he gets some questions as to why it appeared to run out of steam in 24. BTW - we're BLAMING people for producing a record of 23-11 over the last two years - a quarterfinal loss last year to the eventual national champions and a double OT loss to one of the 3 clear preseason favorites for this year? Lost 5 games by a total of 7 goals??

BTW - I do agree Milliman made one conspicuus mistake in the UVA game - it was a poor decision in my opinion to go into OT with both time-outs in your pocket and not attempt to settle the team down when they were obviously rattled. Doesn't take a big leap to think he was trying to save them for possession saves - certainly a worthy goal - but it needed to be done.

Finally, in the past you seem to bristle at the notion you have something in for PM - obviuosly not a fan - I wonder where people get that idea?

[HopFan16]

BTW - I do agree Milliman made one conspicuus mistake in the UVA game - it was a poor decision in my opinion to go into OT with both time-outs in your pocket and not attempt to settle the team down when they were obviously rattled. Doesn't take a big leap to think he was trying to save them for possession saves - certainly a worthy goal - but it needed to be done.

For what it's worth, I was watching some of the highlights the other day and on Angelus' trip and fall/turnover at the top of the box (which led directly led to a UVA goal in transition), you could see all four coaches going absolutely ballistic in the direction of one of the refs during the play — it would appear a timeout was requested but not granted.

The program is in a much healthier and more competitive place than it was in April 2020. Lots of reasons to believe the last two years are sustainable and if you keep pounding on the door, well, eventually it's going to swing open. Taking essentially the entire season off from discussion while the team is playing well/winning the B1G regular season/earning a #3 NCAA seed but then parachuting back the second the season ends in a double OT quarterfinal game solely to criticize the coach is pathetic behavior. Meanwhile the previous coach is now 19-24 over three seasons with his new teams appearing in the NCAAs a grand total of 0 times. Oh and he's 0-3 against Hopkins.

The defense was elite all season. It was good last year even without Chayse. But he helped take it from a top 10 unit to a top 5 one. It'll be good again next year...how good likely depends on the goalie. So many teams lose so much, it's gonna be tough to guess how rosters measure up.

[OCanada]

Chayse was fantastic on Sunday - no question - IMO his very best outing of the year in terms of saves. Clearly there were 3 or rmore times where he stole one. I would not agree that this was the norm for the season and the defense in front of him was pretty darn good. You give up 14 twice/13 once and those games are against 2 of the semi finalists and the other was a quarterfinalist. It's not all the goalie - he was a big part but as '16 pointed out before -the possession time and opportunities can take their toll.

From my perspective too many are scapegoating Assistant Coaches rather than placing responsibility where it belongs

I can only imagine the scathing reply this will generate but it seems to me you are trying to have it both ways. I believe I could produce multiple posts by a certain someone excoriating Milliman for the Junior hire and giving mega credit to Crawley for the resurgence starting in '23. It remains a little unclear whether you are taking Milliman to task for the offense entirely or the UVA game. It was the EXACT same offensive team as last year - with English completely gone by injury but the addition of Chauvette produced something like 14 goals - other than that it was the EXACT same team. So while I am not blaming anything on Crawley - it does seem logical that if he gets the credit for '23 - he gets some questions as to why it appeared to run out of steam in 24. BTW - we're BLAMING people for producing a record of 23-11 over the last two years - a quarterfinal loss last year to the eventual national champions and a double OT loss to one of the 3 clear preseason favorites for this year? Lost 5 games by a total of 7 goals??

BTW - I do agree Milliman made one conspicuus mistake in the UVA game - it was a poor decision in my opinion to go into OT with both time-outs in your pocket and not attempt to settle the team down when they were obviously rattled. Doesn't take a big leap to think he was trying to save them for possession saves - certainly a worthy goal - but it needed to be done.

Finally, in the past you seem to bristle at the notion you have something in for PM - obviuosly not a fan - I wonder where people get that idea?

Excoriate? I like when people expand their vocabulary. I hardly excoriated PM. You seem to have an ax to grind. I would like to see the quote you are referencing. Jr was a bad hire. Period. They did not get along very well either.

I did say PM deserved at least a 4 year window. You failed to mention that. Other than Junior i cannot remember critiquing any other decision. But please help me out here. Maybe it is your creative alternative facts executive function. First year i was critical of the offense that appeared directionless. The following year saw a significant improvement. I recall prediciting Hopkins would surprise on the upside. At one point predicting a quarter final finish before the goalie transfer in.

Best i can tell my only criticism of PM was his first OC hire. I don’t think you ever did. BTW what scathing reply?