2022 D1 Selection Committee

[wgdsr]

my prediction for the 8 at and i don't think i'm going too far out on a limb for the 8 at large selections...
nd and osu win:
4 ivy, 2 b1g and 2 acc.

nd wins and osu loses:
4 ivy, 1 b1g and 3 acc.

nd loses and osu wins:
4 ivy, 2 b1g and 2 acc.

nd loses and osu loses:
4 ivy, 1 b1g, 2 acc and then a mashup of tosu, harvard and maybe even a boston. or even possibly denver. harvard might want denver or boston to be considered to avoid head to head. this assumes each denver and boston make the finals and have a competitive rpi.

+1

What schools match up for the infamous "distance/travel" consideration?

If ND wins do they find a reason for OSU, or DU, to get a bid; and vice versa?

wouldn't matter for du, that'd be a flight regardless. that would be more reason to exclude them, not include.

it's my understanding since forever flights/distance/travel is after selection. but importantly before seeding.

if jax and then anyone but robert morris takes the asun, they'd already be up against it with 2 flights. brown won't drop enough with a loss to be near tosu. they may even move up an rpi spot in a loss if nd wins. having 4 teams in playins complicates all of that further, i wouldn't be surprised if we have whacky seeding bc of it or that they just live with more travel.

then again... jax was #10. so hoo knows what they'll be up to? place your bets.

[joewillie78]

All at large coming from Big, Acc, ivy, no matter what happens to St Joes, Jack, BU etc. Unless GT is upset in BE.
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

[Laxter]

Happy to oblige!

Duke v ND

Current RPI:

8. Duke 0.6171
13. Notre Dame 0.5896

Duke wins:

8. Duke 0.6222
15. Notre Dame 0.5830

ND wins:

10. Duke 0.6068
11. Notre Dame 0.6050

While you’re at it… what would UVa’s numbers be for those two scenarios?

Sorry, Terp. They are in.

[DALaxDad]

Someone may put their finger on the scale for Ohio State. One of the quarter-final sites is Columbus.

[wgdsr]

barring any more crazy takes from the selection committee (looking at you jax), to me it's looking like:
- as i mentioned several weeks ago, villanova looks like the lone bid stealer and they are still alive. anyone near the bubble should be a big hoya fan this weekend.

- nd wins, it's 4 ivy, 1 b1g and 3 acc on the at larges.
- duke wins, it's 4 ivy, 1 b1g and 2 acc... and then the committee saying they took a long look at tosu, harvard, notre dame and then another fake school or 2 for appearances... and award last spot to tosu based on head to head vs harvard and notre dame.

2 games left for inclusion in the tourney. only thing left field i can see is cornell or brown losing their opening game and getting thrown into the pile for discussion, but i don't see it. unless this committee is committed to throwing out 2017-2019 using covid 2021 as cover, it's 2 more games.

[lorin]

barring any more crazy takes from the selection committee (looking at you jax), to me it's looking like:
- as i mentioned several weeks ago, villanova looks like the lone bid stealer and they are still alive. anyone near the bubble should be a big hoya fan this weekend.

- nd wins, it's 4 ivy, 1 b1g and 3 acc on the at larges.
- duke wins, it's 4 ivy, 1 b1g and 2 acc... and then the committee saying they took a long look at tosu, harvard, notre dame and then another fake school or 2 for appearances... and award last spot to tosu based on head to head vs harvard and notre dame.

2 games left for inclusion in the tourney. only thing left field i can see is cornell or brown losing their opening game and getting thrown into the pile for discussion, but i don't see it. unless this committee is committed to throwing out 2017-2019 using covid 2021 as cover, it's 2 more games.

Duke would have six losses, with a bad lost to Syracuse

[wgdsr]

barring any more crazy takes from the selection committee (looking at you jax), to me it's looking like:
- as i mentioned several weeks ago, villanova looks like the lone bid stealer and they are still alive. anyone near the bubble should be a big hoya fan this weekend.

- nd wins, it's 4 ivy, 1 b1g and 3 acc on the at larges.
- duke wins, it's 4 ivy, 1 b1g and 2 acc... and then the committee saying they took a long look at tosu, harvard, notre dame and then another fake school or 2 for appearances... and award last spot to tosu based on head to head vs harvard and notre dame.

2 games left for inclusion in the tourney. only thing left field i can see is cornell or brown losing their opening game and getting thrown into the pile for discussion, but i don't see it. unless this committee is committed to throwing out 2017-2019 using covid 2021 as cover, it's 2 more games.

Duke would have six losses, with a bad lost to Syracuse

crazy world, isn't it?

[MoralTerpitude]

barring any more crazy takes from the selection committee (looking at you jax), to me it's looking like:
- as i mentioned several weeks ago, villanova looks like the lone bid stealer and they are still alive. anyone near the bubble should be a big hoya fan this weekend.

- nd wins, it's 4 ivy, 1 b1g and 3 acc on the at larges.
- duke wins, it's 4 ivy, 1 b1g and 2 acc... and then the committee saying they took a long look at tosu, harvard, notre dame and then another fake school or 2 for appearances... and award last spot to tosu based on head to head vs harvard and notre dame.

2 games left for inclusion in the tourney. only thing left field i can see is cornell or brown losing their opening game and getting thrown into the pile for discussion, but i don't see it. unless this committee is committed to throwing out 2017-2019 using covid 2021 as cover, it's 2 more games.

Duke would have six losses, with a bad lost to Syracuse

crazy world, isn't it?

Problem with this is that Ohio State has the head-to-head win over Notre Dame (as well as Harvard and UNC). Their resume is likely too good for them not to make it.

[wgdsr]

barring any more crazy takes from the selection committee (looking at you jax), to me it's looking like:
- as i mentioned several weeks ago, villanova looks like the lone bid stealer and they are still alive. anyone near the bubble should be a big hoya fan this weekend.

- nd wins, it's 4 ivy, 1 b1g and 3 acc on the at larges.
- duke wins, it's 4 ivy, 1 b1g and 2 acc... and then the committee saying they took a long look at tosu, harvard, notre dame and then another fake school or 2 for appearances... and award last spot to tosu based on head to head vs harvard and notre dame.

2 games left for inclusion in the tourney. only thing left field i can see is cornell or brown losing their opening game and getting thrown into the pile for discussion, but i don't see it. unless this committee is committed to throwing out 2017-2019 using covid 2021 as cover, it's 2 more games.

Duke would have six losses, with a bad lost to Syracuse

crazy world, isn't it?

Problem with this is that Ohio State has the head-to-head win over Notre Dame (as well as Harvard and UNC). Their resume is likely too good for them not to make it.

who is bubble out in your scenario?

[MoralTerpitude]

barring any more crazy takes from the selection committee (looking at you jax), to me it's looking like:
- as i mentioned several weeks ago, villanova looks like the lone bid stealer and they are still alive. anyone near the bubble should be a big hoya fan this weekend.

- nd wins, it's 4 ivy, 1 b1g and 3 acc on the at larges.
- duke wins, it's 4 ivy, 1 b1g and 2 acc... and then the committee saying they took a long look at tosu, harvard, notre dame and then another fake school or 2 for appearances... and award last spot to tosu based on head to head vs harvard and notre dame.

2 games left for inclusion in the tourney. only thing left field i can see is cornell or brown losing their opening game and getting thrown into the pile for discussion, but i don't see it. unless this committee is committed to throwing out 2017-2019 using covid 2021 as cover, it's 2 more games.

Duke would have six losses, with a bad lost to Syracuse

crazy world, isn't it?

Problem with this is that Ohio State has the head-to-head win over Notre Dame (as well as Harvard and UNC). Their resume is likely too good for them not to make it.

who is bubble out in your scenario?

Whoever loses the Duke-ND game. And it’s possible (but less likely now because Rutgers beat aOSU) that if ND wins, Harvard gets in instead of a second ACC team.

So the 8 AL’s would be the four Ivy’s, two B1Gs, two ACC’s in both scenarios.

Interestingly, UVa happens to have no top ten wins, and they’re 3-1 against 11-20. They’re the defending champs, so they’re obviously going to get selected, but right now Duke probably has the better resume, despite the bad loss.

[RopeUnit]

Duke is currently 7 RPI, ahead of Yale Brown + Virginia. They feel like a lock.

[wgdsr]

barring any more crazy takes from the selection committee (looking at you jax), to me it's looking like:
- as i mentioned several weeks ago, villanova looks like the lone bid stealer and they are still alive. anyone near the bubble should be a big hoya fan this weekend.

- nd wins, it's 4 ivy, 1 b1g and 3 acc on the at larges.
- duke wins, it's 4 ivy, 1 b1g and 2 acc... and then the committee saying they took a long look at tosu, harvard, notre dame and then another fake school or 2 for appearances... and award last spot to tosu based on head to head vs harvard and notre dame.

2 games left for inclusion in the tourney. only thing left field i can see is cornell or brown losing their opening game and getting thrown into the pile for discussion, but i don't see it. unless this committee is committed to throwing out 2017-2019 using covid 2021 as cover, it's 2 more games.

Duke would have six losses, with a bad lost to Syracuse

crazy world, isn't it?

Problem with this is that Ohio State has the head-to-head win over Notre Dame (as well as Harvard and UNC). Their resume is likely too good for them not to make it.

who is bubble out in your scenario?

Whoever loses the Duke-ND game. And it’s possible (but less likely now because Rutgers beat aOSU) that if ND wins, Harvard gets in instead of a second ACC team.

So the 8 AL’s would be the four Ivy’s, two B1Gs, two ACC’s in both scenarios.

here is (not by happenstance) how the last 3 tournaments pre-covid lined up for at larges: straight rpi.

when interviewed, the chairman said they put the top 8 at larges by straight rpi on the board, and then discussed whether anything looked squirrelly. so that was the starting point. something needs to jump out, probably the majority of criteria.

if nd beats duke, the rpis are likely to be duke, uva and nd in some order at 9 to 11, nd likely 11. ohio state 12 (below the cutline), then harvard.

so in your scenario, you have tosu jumping #9 or 10 duke from the 12 spot. they have sos and better losses (by #s and by average) than duke. duke will likely finish with 5 top 20 wins, and 1 in top 10. tosu will have 3 or 4, depending on whether 7-9 hopkins sneaks into top 20. and probably no top 10s. their rpi will not only be 2-3 spots lower, but it won't be that tight, either (.016+ away). given how this tourney has been selected, personally i don't think that's gonna cut it.

could they do eye test or toss rpi altogether? sure, but i'm from muzzura until that happens. can you recall a team getting bumped ever with 4 top 20 wins, much less 5, for a team with fewer top wins? i can't.

that's not even considering that according to these boards, the acc always gets their way. so there's that.

[MoralTerpitude]

If they indeed go straight RPI, then believe you would be correct in predicting 3 ACC teams if ND wins. Here’s the specific criteria listed on the NCAA website:

• Strength of schedule index.
• Results of the RPI.
- Record against ranked teams 1-5; 6-10; 11-15; 16-20; 21+
- Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins)
- Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses)
• Head-to-head competition:
- Results versus common opponents.
- Significant wins and losses (wins against teams ranked higher in the RPI and losses against teams ranked lower in the RPI).
- Locations of contests.

There seems to be wiggle room to use various factors in determing the last at large berths. Guess we’ll see how it plays out.

My personal opinion is that ND actually is a very good team (yes, with an excellent goalie), and should be in the tournament. Duke has not really impressed me as much the times I’ve watched them. They seem too dependent on their goalie and FO guy, and they don’t seem consistent enough to make a deep tournament run.

That being said, if Duke beats ND, then I don’t see how one can make an argument for ND to get in.


Let me ask you a question. Let’s say that UVa is theoretically in play. If ND beats Duke, how would you stack the four teams (including OSU)?

[wgdsr]

If they indeed go straight RPI, then believe you would be correct in predicting 3 ACC teams if ND wins. Here’s the specific criteria listed on the NCAA website:

• Strength of schedule index.
• Results of the RPI.
- Record against ranked teams 1-5; 6-10; 11-15; 16-20; 21+
- Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins)
- Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses)
• Head-to-head competition:
- Results versus common opponents.
- Significant wins and losses (wins against teams ranked higher in the RPI and losses against teams ranked lower in the RPI).
- Locations of contests.

There seems to be wiggle room to use various factors in determing the last at large berths. Guess we’ll see how it plays out.

My personal opinion is that ND actually is a very good team (yes, with an excellent goalie), and should be in the tournament. Duke has not really impressed me as much the times I’ve watched them. They seem too dependent on their goalie and FO guy, and they don’t seem consistent enough to make a deep tournament run.

That being said, if Duke beats ND, then I don’t see how one can make an argument for ND to get in.

and originally i said if nd loses, it'd be a discussion for tosu, harvard and notre dame. they'll all be bunched in rpi, probably in that order... a gulf away from #10. and with tosu happening to have the head-to-head on both of them, looks like tosu. throw in for the conspiracy theorists they are one of the few schools that can match or better the juice of nd in the collegiate landscape and the host site possibility is just a cherry.

edit: btw, results of the rpi is as you typed it. it's not supposed to be a team's straight rpi, but how you did against other teams' rpi. but here we are.

[wgdsr]

Let me ask you a question. Let’s say that UVa is theoretically in play. If ND beats Duke, how would you stack the four teams (including OSU)?

for inclusion in the tournament?

duke
uva
nd

out:
tosu

why? that's likely to be the rpi order 9-12. it's possible cornell or brown drop into that mix, but i doubt it.

i've said all year i'll see it when i believe it that the committee jumps off the straight rpi train.

[Farfromgeneva]

barring any more crazy takes from the selection committee (looking at you jax), to me it's looking like:
- as i mentioned several weeks ago, villanova looks like the lone bid stealer and they are still alive. anyone near the bubble should be a big hoya fan this weekend.

- nd wins, it's 4 ivy, 1 b1g and 3 acc on the at larges.
- duke wins, it's 4 ivy, 1 b1g and 2 acc... and then the committee saying they took a long look at tosu, harvard, notre dame and then another fake school or 2 for appearances... and award last spot to tosu based on head to head vs harvard and notre dame.

2 games left for inclusion in the tourney. only thing left field i can see is cornell or brown losing their opening game and getting thrown into the pile for discussion, but i don't see it. unless this committee is committed to throwing out 2017-2019 using covid 2021 as cover, it's 2 more games.

Duke would have six losses, with a bad lost to Syracuse

crazy world, isn't it?

Problem with this is that Ohio State has the head-to-head win over Notre Dame (as well as Harvard and UNC). Their resume is likely too good for them not to make it.

who is bubble out in your scenario?

Whoever loses the Duke-ND game. And it’s possible (but less likely now because Rutgers beat aOSU) that if ND wins, Harvard gets in instead of a second ACC team.

So the 8 AL’s would be the four Ivy’s, two B1Gs, two ACC’s in both scenarios.

here is (not by happenstance) how the last 3 tournaments pre-covid lined up for at larges: straight rpi.

when interviewed, the chairman said they put the top 8 at larges by straight rpi on the board, and then discussed whether anything looked squirrelly. so that was the starting point. something needs to jump out, probably the majority of criteria.

if nd beats duke, the rpis are likely to be duke, uva and nd in some order at 9 to 11, nd likely 11. ohio state 12 (below the cutline), then harvard.

so in your scenario, you have tosu jumping #9 or 10 duke from the 12 spot. they have sos and better losses (by #s and by average) than duke. duke will likely finish with 5 top 20 wins, and 1 in top 10. tosu will have 3 or 4, depending on whether 7-9 hopkins sneaks into top 20. and probably no top 10s. their rpi will not only be 2-3 spots lower, but it won't be that tight, either (.016+ away). given how this tourney has been selected, personally i don't think that's gonna cut it.

could they do eye test or toss rpi altogether? sure, but i'm from muzzura until that happens. can you recall a team getting bumped ever with 4 top 20 wins, much less 5, for a team with fewer top wins? i can't.

that's not even considering that according to these boards, the acc always gets their way. so there's that.

Is Duke the new 2010s Hop? Living and dying on SOS/RPI?

(I don’t think so given relative roster talent levels but maybe…)

[AreaLax]

Patrick Steven’s latest braceketology

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal

(1) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. COLONIAL/Delaware-METRO ATLANTIC/St. Bonaventure

(8) Duke vs. Penn

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal

(5) IVY/Brown vs. PATRIOT/Boston University

(4) Yale vs. SOUTHERN/Jacksonville

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal

(3) Princeton vs. NORTHEAST/Saint Joseph’s

(6) Rutgers vs. Virginia

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal

(7) Cornell vs. Ohio State

(2) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah-AMERICA EAST/Vermont


Last three included: Penn, Virginia, Ohio State

First three on the outside: Notre Dame, Harvard, North Carolina

https://www.usalaxmagazine.com/college/ ... semifinals

[1766]

Acc is a two bid league. Ohio St is in.

[wgdsr]

Acc is a two bid league. Ohio St is in.

if the domers win, guess we'll see if you're right!

[MoralTerpitude]

It’s interesting that UVa was essentially “seeded” 11th by Stevens. I was thinking that if there’s any rigging going on in the selection process, it will have to do with ensuring certain match ups won’t happen too early. So UVa would have to be seeded either 6th, 7th, or playing one of those seeds in the first round (i.e. the 10th or 11th “seeds”). This would ensure that they wouldn’t play Maryland until the finals.

As a fan I like this thought process. But it could lead to some teams getting screwed seeding wise, though (especially if UVa is given the 6th or 7th seed, which they haven’t earned).