MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 12:50 pm
wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 11:30 am
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 11:20 am
wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 10:35 am
lorin wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 10:33 am
wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 10:09 am
barring any more crazy takes from the selection committee (looking at you jax), to me it's looking like:
- as i mentioned several weeks ago, villanova looks like the lone bid stealer and they are still alive. anyone near the bubble should be a big hoya fan this weekend.
- nd wins, it's 4 ivy, 1 b1g and 3 acc on the at larges.
- duke wins, it's 4 ivy, 1 b1g and 2 acc... and then the committee saying they took a long look at tosu, harvard, notre dame and then another fake school or 2 for appearances... and award last spot to tosu based on head to head vs harvard and notre dame.
2 games left for inclusion in the tourney. only thing left field i can see is cornell or brown losing their opening game and getting thrown into the pile for discussion, but i don't see it. unless this committee is committed to throwing out 2017-2019 using covid 2021 as cover, it's 2 more games.
Duke would have six losses, with a bad lost to Syracuse
crazy world, isn't it?
Problem with this is that Ohio State has the head-to-head win over Notre Dame (as well as Harvard and UNC). Their resume is likely too good for them not to make it.
who is bubble out in your scenario?
Whoever loses the Duke-ND game. And it’s possible (but less likely now because Rutgers beat aOSU) that if ND wins, Harvard gets in instead of a second ACC team.
So the 8 AL’s would be the four Ivy’s, two B1Gs, two ACC’s in both scenarios.
here is (not by happenstance) how the last 3 tournaments pre-covid lined up for at larges: straight rpi.
when interviewed, the chairman said they put the top 8 at larges by straight rpi on the board, and then discussed whether anything looked squirrelly. so that was the starting point. something needs to jump out, probably the majority of criteria.
if nd beats duke, the rpis are likely to be duke, uva and nd in some order at 9 to 11, nd likely 11. ohio state 12 (below the cutline), then harvard.
so in your scenario, you have tosu jumping #9 or 10 duke from the 12 spot. they have sos and better losses (by #s and by average) than duke. duke will likely finish with 5 top 20 wins, and 1 in top 10. tosu will have 3 or 4, depending on whether 7-9 hopkins sneaks into top 20. and probably no top 10s. their rpi will not only be 2-3 spots lower, but it won't be that tight, either (.016+ away). given how this tourney has been selected, personally i don't think that's gonna cut it.
could they do eye test or toss rpi altogether? sure, but i'm from muzzura until that happens. can you recall a team getting bumped ever with 4 top 20 wins, much less 5, for a team with fewer top wins? i can't.
that's not even considering that according to these boards, the acc always gets their way. so there's that.