Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

[@inthe8m]

Is it common for a team like Michigan, who has a weaker RPI and finished lower in BIG10 standings (they didn’t qualify for BIG10 tournament),to leapfrog a JHU who finished fourth in the BIG10 has a better last six, and a better RPI to get into the NCAA’s? Or does Insider lacrosse just win over everyone?

No it’s not common at all but I wasn’t going to be the one to say anything. Michigan only has one win since 3/20 and it was an OT win over PSU. No way they should get in over Hopkins.

Sure, it defies logic for anyone to give Michigan an AQ over Hopkins or OSU, but the committee loves to defy logic. Michigan finished the season 1-5 and that included a loss @ home to OSU.

They are riding on their win against Notre Dame on 2/13 and AZ State on 2/18. Interestingly, both of those teams have weaker RPIs than Hopkins. The committee is also supposed to factor in the recent performance, but i think the early wins will get Michigan in over Hopkins and OSU.

I also wouldn't say that Michigan's wins were "much better" than Hopkins' wins. They beat Notre Dame back when Notre Dame was losing to Vanderbilt, while Hopkins beat a surging OSU team that also gave Rutgers fits last week.

Honestly, February wins are nothing but interesting talking points as many teams are making adjustments and figuring out who they are based off of new starters, etc.

Michigan being 1-5 down the stretch with the one W being a one-goal victory against a Penn State team (that the rest of the B1G was beating up on) tells me that Michigan is not a tourney worthy team.

[@inthe8m]

I will go out on a limb, possibly not a very long one, and say that all seeds will advance to the quarterfinals with the possible exception of Princeton sneaking in. If I were being generous, I might add JMU but that's it.

Whoever gets Duke in their bracket is at risk...im not a duke fan, but don't want to face them in the second round

Meh. I am not sure any tourney teams with a good defense are worried about playing Duke in the tourney.

[mdlaxfan]

Why is UConn projected to be an at large team? They have a good RPI but their SOS is 47 and their only notable win was against UMass.

[Dr. Tact]

I will go out on a limb, possibly not a very long one, and say that all seeds will advance to the quarterfinals with the possible exception of Princeton sneaking in. If I were being generous, I might add JMU but that's it.

Whoever gets Duke in their bracket is at risk...im not a duke fan, but don't want to face them in the second round

Meh. I am not sure any tourney teams with a good defense are worried about playing Duke in the tourney.

you may be right...I just dont have confidence in a certain team beating a Duke on a must win scenario.

[Bart]

Is it common for a team like Michigan, who has a weaker RPI and finished lower in BIG10 standings (they didn’t qualify for BIG10 tournament),to leapfrog a JHU who finished fourth in the BIG10 has a better last six, and a better RPI to get into the NCAA’s? Or does Insider lacrosse just win over everyone?

No it’s not common at all but I wasn’t going to be the one to say anything. Michigan only has one win since 3/20 and it was an OT win over PSU. No way they should get in over Hopkins.

Sure, it defies logic for anyone to give Michigan an AQ over Hopkins or OSU, but the committee loves to defy logic. Michigan finished the season 1-5 and that included a loss @ home to OSU.

They are riding on their win against Notre Dame on 2/13 and AZ State on 2/18. Interestingly, both of those teams have weaker RPIs than Hopkins. The committee is also supposed to factor in the recent performance, but i think the early wins will get Michigan in over Hopkins and OSU.

I also wouldn't say that Michigan's wins were "much better" than Hopkins' wins. They beat Notre Dame back when Notre Dame was losing to Vanderbilt, while Hopkins beat a surging OSU team that also gave Rutgers fits last week.

Honestly, February wins are nothing but interesting talking points as many teams are making adjustments and figuring out who they are based off of new starters, etc.

Talking points? I was unaware that these early season games were removed from important calculations for the committee.

[crazyhorse]

Why is UConn projected to be an at large team? They have a good RPI but their SOS is 47 and their only notable win was against UMass.

You answered your own question. Because their RPI is 14, and that is a metric the committee has historically fixated on. It's same metric they would use as justification to seed Florida ahead of Stony Brook and Loyola.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Why is UConn projected to be an at large team? They have a good RPI but their SOS is 47 and their only notable win was against UMass.

You answered your own question. Because their RPI is 14, and that is a metric the committee has historically fixated on. It's same metric they would use as justification to seed Florida ahead of Stony Brook and Loyola.

It’s also a compelling argument for an upgrade of the formulae used to award at-large bids.

[hmmm]

Why is UConn projected to be an at large team? They have a good RPI but their SOS is 47 and their only notable win was against UMass.

You answered your own question. Because their RPI is 14, and that is a metric the committee has historically fixated on. It's same metric they would use as justification to seed Florida ahead of Stony Brook and Loyola.

Yet Hopkins RPI is 16 and they're not projected to be in. So the team that finished 4th in the Big East and whose best win is UMass will get in over the team that finished 4th in the Big Ten with a SOS of 13? Seems strange.

[jeremyfallis]

Why is UConn projected to be an at large team? They have a good RPI but their SOS is 47 and their only notable win was against UMass.

You answered your own question. Because their RPI is 14, and that is a metric the committee has historically fixated on. It's same metric they would use as justification to seed Florida ahead of Stony Brook and Loyola.

Yet Hopkins RPI is 16 and they're not projected to be in. So the team that finished 4th in the Big East and whose best win is UMass will get in over the team that finished 4th in the Big Ten with a SOS of 13? Seems strange.

Hey everyone! It's one of the most fun weeks of the year and happy to chime in if folks are up for reading it.

First off, love the banter about the bubble teams and frustrations about RPI, SOS and the like. We need more of it.

Secondly -- this is going to be a bear of a bubble to parse out. As I write this, UConn is getting done over by Denver. They're one of several teams that don't have a great case to be in, but might get in anyway.

Third -- Things will fluctuate between today and Sunday. Having teams like UConn, UMass and Temple with good RPIs but no wins over other NCAA tournament teams is difficult to figure out, especially when you have teams like Colorado and Virginia Tech who clearly can beat NCAA-caliber squads, but can also lose to Oregon, Liberty and Louisville.

FWIW, Colorado's loss is Johns Hopkins' gain. For now. We'll see how the numbers shake out at the end of the night to figure out last teams in/first teams out, and seedings, etc.

Anyway, shoot questions over and happy to explain reasonings on where things may go. (And we'll post bracket projections after Friday's semifinals and a final one Sunday afternoon when all the games are complete before the selection show at 9 p.m.).

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Hey everyone! It's one of the most fun weeks of the year and happy to chime in if folks are up for reading it.

First off, love the banter about the bubble teams and frustrations about RPI, SOS and the like. We need more of it.

Secondly -- this is going to be a bear of a bubble to parse out. As I write this, UConn is getting done over by Denver. They're one of several teams that don't have a great case to be in, but might get in anyway.

Third -- Things will fluctuate between today and Sunday. Having teams like UConn, UMass and Temple with good RPIs but no wins over other NCAA tournament teams is difficult to figure out, especially when you have teams like Colorado and Virginia Tech who clearly can beat NCAA-caliber squads, but can also lose to Oregon, Liberty and Louisville.

FWIW, Colorado's loss is Johns Hopkins' gain. For now. We'll see how the numbers shake out at the end of the night to figure out last teams in/first teams out, and seedings, etc.

Anyway, shoot questions over and happy to explain reasonings on where things may go. (And we'll post bracket projections after Friday's semifinals and a final one Sunday afternoon when all the games are complete before the selection show at 9 p.m.).

Welcome, Mr. Fallis. As you can see, we’ve been enjoying your articles. How long have you been writing them?

What are your thoughts on SOS/RPI? Does women’s lacrosse need to upgrade the way D1 men’s basketball has? If you were the one to make that decision, would you change the current formulae?

[jeremyfallis]

Hey everyone! It's one of the most fun weeks of the year and happy to chime in if folks are up for reading it.

First off, love the banter about the bubble teams and frustrations about RPI, SOS and the like. We need more of it.

Secondly -- this is going to be a bear of a bubble to parse out. As I write this, UConn is getting done over by Denver. They're one of several teams that don't have a great case to be in, but might get in anyway.

Third -- Things will fluctuate between today and Sunday. Having teams like UConn, UMass and Temple with good RPIs but no wins over other NCAA tournament teams is difficult to figure out, especially when you have teams like Colorado and Virginia Tech who clearly can beat NCAA-caliber squads, but can also lose to Oregon, Liberty and Louisville.

FWIW, Colorado's loss is Johns Hopkins' gain. For now. We'll see how the numbers shake out at the end of the night to figure out last teams in/first teams out, and seedings, etc.

Anyway, shoot questions over and happy to explain reasonings on where things may go. (And we'll post bracket projections after Friday's semifinals and a final one Sunday afternoon when all the games are complete before the selection show at 9 p.m.).

Welcome, Mr. Fallis. As you can see, we’ve been enjoying your articles. How long have you been writing them?

What are your thoughts on SOS/RPI? Does women’s lacrosse need to upgrade the way D1 men’s basketball has? If you were the one to make that decision, would you change the current formulae?

Thank you!

So I used to be a college SID. Had Saint Joseph's lacrosse (M&W) in 2008 & 2009, Penn State MLAX 2013 & 2014 and Penn State WLAX in 2015 & 2016. When I got out of sports and moved to Michigan with my family, I started freelancing and did the first brackets for USA Lacrosse Mag in 2017. But I've been doing mock brackets forever, in all sports. I love them! Also picked up some great pointers from Joe Lunardi during my time at St. Joe's as a student.

As for RPI/SOS discussion -- it's not great, but I don't think it's as bad as some people make it out to be. For lacrosse it isn't as bad as some other sports because there are fewer teams (women's soccer is a great example, there's 300+ teams and the proportion of games to teams masks some bad teams who get in). I do wish lacrosse considered using the bonus points seen in other sports (away wins, neutral site wins count more). The basketball NET is really nice, but I don't think there are enough games and reliable data (possession charts, stats, etc.) to use it objectively.

As for a better tool, I love the Pairwise that hockey uses. Both the men's and women's tournaments are used with that ranking. The only fun is that it takes away any subjectivity and "surprise" come selection day. Unfortunately, I don't think lacrosse plays enough games to utilize Pairwise in an effective manner. With that said, there's probably a middle ground.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Thank you!

So I used to be a college SID. Had Saint Joseph's lacrosse (M&W) in 2008 & 2009, Penn State MLAX 2013 & 2014 and Penn State WLAX in 2015 & 2016. When I got out of sports and moved to Michigan with my family, I started freelancing and did the first brackets for USA Lacrosse Mag in 2017. But I've been doing mock brackets forever, in all sports. I love them! Also picked up some great pointers from Joe Lunardi during my time at St. Joe's as a student.

As for RPI/SOS discussion -- it's not great, but I don't think it's as bad as some people make it out to be. For lacrosse it isn't as bad as some other sports because there are fewer teams (women's soccer is a great example, there's 300+ teams and the proportion of games to teams masks some bad teams who get in). I do wish lacrosse considered using the bonus points seen in other sports (away wins, neutral site wins count more). The basketball NET is really nice, but I don't think there are enough games and reliable data (possession charts, stats, etc.) to use it objectively.

As for a better tool, I love the Pairwise that hockey uses. Both the men's and women's tournaments are used with that ranking. The only fun is that it takes away any subjectivity and "surprise" come selection day. Unfortunately, I don't think lacrosse plays enough games to utilize Pairwise in an effective manner. With that said, there's probably a middle ground.

How do you calculate SOS? Do you use a website or do you calculate your own?

How did you hear about FanLax? What prompted you to jine up?

[jeremyfallis]

Thank you!

So I used to be a college SID. Had Saint Joseph's lacrosse (M&W) in 2008 & 2009, Penn State MLAX 2013 & 2014 and Penn State WLAX in 2015 & 2016. When I got out of sports and moved to Michigan with my family, I started freelancing and did the first brackets for USA Lacrosse Mag in 2017. But I've been doing mock brackets forever, in all sports. I love them! Also picked up some great pointers from Joe Lunardi during my time at St. Joe's as a student.

As for RPI/SOS discussion -- it's not great, but I don't think it's as bad as some people make it out to be. For lacrosse it isn't as bad as some other sports because there are fewer teams (women's soccer is a great example, there's 300+ teams and the proportion of games to teams masks some bad teams who get in). I do wish lacrosse considered using the bonus points seen in other sports (away wins, neutral site wins count more). The basketball NET is really nice, but I don't think there are enough games and reliable data (possession charts, stats, etc.) to use it objectively.

As for a better tool, I love the Pairwise that hockey uses. Both the men's and women's tournaments are used with that ranking. The only fun is that it takes away any subjectivity and "surprise" come selection day. Unfortunately, I don't think lacrosse plays enough games to utilize Pairwise in an effective manner. With that said, there's probably a middle ground.

How do you calculate SOS? Do you use a website or do you calculate your own?

How did you hear about FanLax? What prompted you to jine up?

SOS is calculated based off the RPI, which is 25% your winning percentage, 50% your opponents winning percentage and 25% your opponents' opponents winning percentage. The NCAA lacrosse committees only use your top 10 opponents played and divide by 10 to get a number and then those numbers are compared to the other 117 teams and ranked. It's why you see teams in conferences like the Big Ten and ACC have most of the top 25 toughest SOS ratings. So their numbers are the ones I use because it's one of the five primary criteria for selection.

As for fanlax, I've always read and followed the boards on the old laxpower site when I was an SID--partially for fun and to get a pulse on what fans are looking at and talking about. Was also good recon on lax parents who might be talking smack on coaches or players of the teams I covered back in the day. Much of that was before Twitter provided a good place to banter, too.

[mdlaxfan]

Why is UConn projected to be an at large team? They have a good RPI but their SOS is 47 and their only notable win was against UMass.

You answered your own question. Because their RPI is 14, and that is a metric the committee has historically fixated on. It's same metric they would use as justification to seed Florida ahead of Stony Brook and Loyola.

Yet Hopkins RPI is 16 and they're not projected to be in. So the team that finished 4th in the Big East and whose best win is UMass will get in over the team that finished 4th in the Big Ten with a SOS of 13? Seems strange.

Secondly -- this is going to be a bear of a bubble to parse out. As I write this, UConn is getting done over by Denver. They're one of several teams that don't have a great case to be in, but might get in anyway.

Out of curiosity, what is it about UConn’s record that you think the committee would find compelling enough to give them an at large bid?

[jeremyfallis]

Why is UConn projected to be an at large team? They have a good RPI but their SOS is 47 and their only notable win was against UMass.

You answered your own question. Because their RPI is 14, and that is a metric the committee has historically fixated on. It's same metric they would use as justification to seed Florida ahead of Stony Brook and Loyola.

Yet Hopkins RPI is 16 and they're not projected to be in. So the team that finished 4th in the Big East and whose best win is UMass will get in over the team that finished 4th in the Big Ten with a SOS of 13? Seems strange.

Secondly -- this is going to be a bear of a bubble to parse out. As I write this, UConn is getting done over by Denver. They're one of several teams that don't have a great case to be in, but might get in anyway.

Out of curiosity, what is it about UConn’s record that you think the committee would find compelling enough to give them an at large bid?

Honestly, not much. The only positive is their RPI number, which was 14 entering today, and a win over UMass. I had them as last team in going into this week because of that poor loss to Georgetown, and now they've gotten blown out by Denver, who just lost to Colorado. I think there's a solid case to have Ohio State, Virginia Tech or Colorado in ahead of them, but each of them have RPIs well below 14.

I'll be interested to see what that number looks like tomorrow morning when these semifinals are completed. Generally teams who haven't beaten other NCAA teams don't get in, even with a high RPI. But let's not forget, last year's committee put in UConn when they didn't have any victories of note and had an arguably worse loss to Villanova.

[Dr. Tact]

How do you feel about loyola? Low rpi, but the eye test indicates a good team... it's hard to measure a team who beats their conference by such large margins. Likewise with Stony Brook?

[jeremyfallis]

How do you feel about loyola? Low rpi, but the eye test indicates a good team... it's hard to measure a team who beats their conference by such large margins. Likewise with Stony Brook?

They have nearly identical profiles -- beat Florida, Princeton and Johns Hopkins, but both lost to Syracuse. Their RPI are close to each other (SBU 7, LOY 9), but Stony Brook's SOS is slightly better (19-26). Eye test *shouldn't* factor into things. SBU will be seeded higher because it also has a win over Arizona State who has a good shot of getting into the tournament. The reaason they're behind Florida in the committee's eyes right now is that Florida beat Syracuse, which is a significant win (over the current No. 5 team in the committee's rankings, which is the ranking that matters). There's still a chance Duke gets in at No. 8 over Loyola or Rutgers does as well if the Scarlet Knights get past Northwestern. Rutgers will definitely be seeded if they win the Big Ten.

[Dr. Tact]

. There's still a chance Duke gets in at No. 8 over Loyola or Rutgers does as well if the Scarlet Knights get past Northwestern. Rutgers will definitely be seeded if they win the Big Ten.

That would be sad

[crazyhorse]

. There's still a chance Duke gets in at No. 8 over Loyola or Rutgers does as well if the Scarlet Knights get past Northwestern. Rutgers will definitely be seeded if they win the Big Ten.

That would be sad

Sad is one word for Duke getting an 8 seed. After their performance in their last 2 games I would use "indefensible" or "unconscionable".
I think Rutgers is in the conversation for 8 if they solely beat Northwestern. They also have a nice win over JMU and current RPI of 8. You're likely right that they'd need to win the title, but it wouldn't surprise me if they slid in with one win.
As for Florida at 6? Really hard for me to see how you overlook their head to head losses vs Loyola and Stony Brook. I agree with your 8 seeds, would change your order on 6-8.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

How do you calculate SOS? Do you use a website or do you calculate your own?

So their numbers are the ones I use because it's one of the five primary criteria for selection.

I should have been more specific. I meant to ask how/if you personally calculate SOS. I get from your answer that you use a website to access the NCAA committee's numbers, or more specifically, the numbers the committee uses for reference. Which site? If you don't mind.