THE 2019 Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

[HopFan16]

If there is a change, people should expect things to get worse, not better, in the short term. My guess is people aren't going to like what the 2020 season brings with a new regime. Guys are going to transfer. I know of at least one major contributor on the team right now who was going to leave if Petro took the Michigan job. The players respect him. Many of them commit because of the family atmosphere Petro has cultivated. If he leaves you can also expect some big-time commits to start looking at other offers. Maybe it pays off in the long run but culture changes can be pretty tumultuous. Who knows how the team reacts.

And that's all assuming you get exactly who you want as a replacement.

And it's also assuming the Head Coach is the problem. Maybe Hopkins is the problem, no? How much is tuition, again?

Meanwhile, Tillman keeps notching Final Fours, and is competing for Final Fours every yeear. Anyone notice that In State tuition is four figures at UMd?

Those mentioning the Michigan job....all those folks who assumed Michigan could start booking trips to the Final Four didn't want to hear that Michigan isn't the slam dunk that all the know it alls assume. They just lost to Delaware, and are 3-5 headed into their Big Ten Schedule. Guess Final Four plans will have wait another year.

Point being, fans don't want to hear the realities of their favorite schools' ability to attract the best players.

I'm a Syracuse fan. I don't expect we'll see a Final Four anytime soon. If we do, great. If not----they're fun to watch. Relax, enjoy the games. Mike Powell isn't arriving on campus anytime soon. I'm ok with that.

Who was predicting a Final Four for Michigan this year? Or even next year? I haven't seen any of that.

The tuition thing is overblown. Duke and Yale seem to be doing just fine with their high tuitions. Outside of like one random anonymous anecdote someone here cited, I doubt the number of kids who want to play at Hopkins but aren't allowed to because it's too expensive is substantial. There are other reasons not to go to Hopkins, of course. But tuition is not what has stood in the way of more Final Four trips. There's no actual evidence of that.

My guess is people aren't going to like what the 2020 season brings with a new regime. Guys are going to transfer. I know of at least one major contributor on the team right now who was going to leave if Petro took the Michigan job.

Is there also not a risk of current guys transferring if there are no changes? These players are really competitive and hate to lose. They want to be on a winning team, a tournament team that plays on Championship Weekend. Is that even realistic for a star [Frosh] in the next couple of years?

Yes, there is risk of that. I'm not saying you don't pull the trigger on a change because you're worried about transfers. I'm merely saying it's quite possible things get even worse before they get better—if they ever do.

I do think that if, hypothetically, we're looking for a new leader of the program, it should be someone suited specifically to maximize Epstein's potential. The kid could be great—I mean really, really great. He is the type of competitor I believe can win you a championship. Would be a shame if that's wasted.

[viper]

And that's all assuming you get exactly who you want as a replacement. Maybe Nadelen isn't interested. Maybe Marr, if we even want him (how's Albany doing these days?), isn't interested either. Who's left? Tierney? I'll pass. Raymond? Voelker? Meh. The best guys: Tillman, Shay, Danowski, Tierney, etc., are not going anywhere. Maybe you can convince a decent youngish coach like Torpey to head to Homewood but that would mean stepping outside the alumni ranks. If we fire Petro it's likely that the best available coach for the Hopkins lacrosse job is...Petro. Not saying that means a change isn't warranted, but it does mean expectations should be adjusted accordingly.

Not for nothing, but Tierney is having the same success at Hofstra as Danowski did before he moved on to bigger and better things. I can't imagine Hofstra is an easy place to get recruits. Most of the local LI talent doesn't stay "that local" and what does Hofstra offer top tier recruits who are being courted by the Ivy's and other top programs.

I still contend that the day things changed for Hopkins was the day Tierney left. They were able to succeed in 2007 with the folks left behind, but since Benson has taken hold, they can't seem to assemble a "complete" offense and it's getting old watching top recruits excel as freshman (if they get on the field) and then drop off in subsequent years.

I would be very intrigued with Tierney at the helm, and I think he would be more attainable than Marr or Nadelan (speculation about Nadelan, but I have heard that Marr won't leave after they essentially built that program and facilities for him).

[a fan]

The tuition thing is overblown. Duke and Yale seem to be doing just fine with their high tuitions. Outside of like one random anonymous anecdote someone here cited, I doubt the number of kids who want to play at Hopkins but aren't allowed to because it's too expensive is substantial. There are other reasons not to go to Hopkins, of course. But tuition is not what has stood in the way of more Final Four trips. There's no actual evidence of that.

Great news. Sounds like you're all set, then. Nothing to see here.

As for Michigan---they were predicting an immediate improvement, and that they'd start beating Big Ten teams immediately.

[steel_hop]

I agree costs are very overblown. Is Hopkins sticker cost, expensive? yes. Do many students pay that no?

Hopkins lacrosse issues can be derived expressly from Hopkins lacrosse community - meaning players and coaches, generally not being good enough.

[viper]

If there is a change, people should expect things to get worse, not better, in the short term. My guess is people aren't going to like what the 2020 season brings with a new regime. Guys are going to transfer. I know of at least one major contributor on the team right now who was going to leave if Petro took the Michigan job. The players respect him. Many of them commit because of the family atmosphere Petro has cultivated. If he leaves you can also expect some big-time commits to start looking at other offers. Maybe it pays off in the long run but culture changes can be pretty tumultuous. Who knows how the team reacts.

And that's all assuming you get exactly who you want as a replacement.

And it's also assuming the Head Coach is the problem. Maybe Hopkins is the problem, no? How much is tuition, again?

Meanwhile, Tillman keeps notching Final Fours, and is competing for Final Fours every yeear. Anyone notice that In State tuition is four figures at UMd?

Those mentioning the Michigan job....all those folks who assumed Michigan could start booking trips to the Final Four didn't want to hear that Michigan isn't the slam dunk that all the know it alls assume. They just lost to Delaware, and are 3-5 headed into their Big Ten Schedule. Guess Final Four plans will have wait another year.

Point being, fans don't want to hear the realities of their favorite schools' ability to attract the best players.

I'm a Syracuse fan. I don't expect we'll see a Final Four anytime soon. If we do, great. If not----they're fun to watch. Relax, enjoy the games. Mike Powell isn't arriving on campus anytime soon. I'm ok with that.

There are certainly schools that seem to be easier to "recruit for" than others, whether that be because of tuition, location or other. However, I do think it's a cop out to just blame everything on recruiting at Hopkins being "difficult" when we see other schools like Yale and Cornell succeeding despite high tuition and no athletic scholarships. Not too mention that New Haven isn't exactly the French Riviera.

It's also been demonstrated by teams like Towson that you don't have to bring in the "top talent" to be competitive. You just have to bring in the right talent and these days there is plenty of that to go around.

[steel_hop]

The tuition thing is overblown. Duke and Yale seem to be doing just fine with their high tuitions. Outside of like one random anonymous anecdote someone here cited, I doubt the number of kids who want to play at Hopkins but aren't allowed to because it's too expensive is substantial. There are other reasons not to go to Hopkins, of course. But tuition is not what has stood in the way of more Final Four trips. There's no actual evidence of that.

Great news. Sounds like you're all set, then. Nothing to see here.

As for Michigan---they were predicting an immediate improvement, and that they'd start beating Big Ten teams immediately.

On Michigan that was you trolling the UM fanbase. And I believe the debate and parameters you set out were 10 years from 2018. I don't think that is out of the realm of possibilities for UM to make the FF in that time frame.

We have had our debates on these issues. You are willing to accept mediocre results from your Orange because you can still find enjoyment in that. That is fine. There is nothing wrong with that. But, as a Hopkins grad and supporter, I am willing to live with a change. Maybe the next coach is worse but that only means Hopkins will be that much closer to finding a successful coach. If you want to take an analogy from college football, Alabama had to spend time looking at Dennis Franchione, the 3 Mikes (Price, Dubose and Shula) between Gene Stallings and Saban. And, even the hiring of Saban occurred because all the stars aligned. not that Hopkins is Alabama but do nothing given over a decade of worsening results is not acceptable.

[DocBarrister]

I hear all the criticism and I get it ... indeed, agree with much of it.

But let’s put things in perspective. Blue Jays got blown out by two stellar Loyola and Towson teams. They played Syracuse and Virginia, two top ten teams, close for about three quarters. They beat North Carolina and Princeton on the road. They beat a DE team that is pretty good, and MSM on short rest.

This Hopkins team has plenty of talent. What I haven’t seen is a team with a lot of chemistry and its head fully in the game. I think that explains a lot of the turnovers we have seen, which have been devastating.

These Blue Jays don’t have the talent or cohesiveness of the 2005 version, but who does?

If Hopkins can just cut turnovers down (and not by much ... just 3 a game may do it), and work together better as a team on both offense and defense, they could make some noise in the second half of the season. Quicker second slides and more open shots for Marr ... those will be signs of a team working more like a team.

Pre-season is over for the Blue Jays. A brand new season begins at Michigan. Petro and his crew still have their fates entirely in their own hands.

Go Blue Jays!

DocBarrister (still optimistic)

[a fan]

That's all cool. I get your points. My point is simple: Hopkins is a very different environment for an athlete. It's not like Duke, Yale, Towson, etc. Add in the expense, location, etc..... it's a tough sell, imho. So is Syracuse's pricetag.

Brushing aside the particulars of Hopkins itself is a mistake, imho. That's my point.

Look at what happened at Princeton the nanosecond Tierney stopped getting Admin. support to bring in his favored recruits.

[a fan]

On Michigan that was you trolling the UM fanbase. And I believe the debate and parameters you set out were 10 years from 2018.

Not at all. The fanbase was insisting Paul was the problem...and insisted the talent on hand would beat Big Ten teams with a better coach.

That hasn't proven true. They also haven't started landing guys like Epstein....which is what they also claimed. They claimed Michigan would move to the head of the trough when it comes to getting recruits of their choice.

[DocBarrister]

That's all cool. I get your points. My point is simple: Hopkins is a very different environment for an athlete. It's not like Duke, Yale, Towson, etc. Add in the expense, location, etc..... it's a tough sell, imho. So is Syracuse's pricetag.

Brushing aside the particulars of Hopkins itself is a mistake, imho. That's my point.

Look at what happened at Princeton the nanosecond Tierney stopped getting Admin. support to bring in his favored recruits.

Hopkins has been a “tough sell” for over one hundred and forty years. Hasn’t stopped the university from being one of the most dominant schools in any sport.

DocBarrister

[HopFan16]

I hear all the criticism and I get it ... indeed, agree with much of it.

But let’s put things in perspective. Blue Jays got blown out by two stellar Loyola and Towson teams. They played Syracuse and Virginia, two top ten teams, close for about three quarters. They beat North Carolina and Princeton on the road. They beat a DE team that is pretty good, and MSM on short rest.

This Hopkins team has plenty of talent. What I haven’t seen is a team with a lot of chemistry and its head fully in the game. I think that explains a lot of the turnovers we have seen, which have been devastating.

These Blue Jays don’t have the talent or cohesiveness of the 2005 version, but who does?

If Hopkins can just cut turnovers down (and not by much ... just 3 a game may do it), and work together better as a team on both offense and defense, they could make some noise in the second half of the season. Quicker second slides and more open shots for Marr ... those will be signs of a team working more like a team.

Pre-season is over for the Blue Jays. A brand new season begins at Michigan. Petro and his crew still have their fates entirely in their own hands.

Go Blue Jays!

DocBarrister (still optimistic)

I have been one of our resident optimists for the last few years (or at least, tried to be relatively optimistic) but seeing the phrase "could make some noise in the second half of the season" applied to Hopkins lacrosse, as if that would be some grand feat we'd all be happy with, is deeply depressing. We're beyond needing to just "make some noise." This team is in grave danger of finishing below .500 and missing the NCAA tournament. Is it possible things turnaround? Sure. It's possible. Winning the lottery is also possible. The odds of the two happening seem about even. Even if we somehow sneak into the NCAA tournament, then what? The trajectory since the 2015 run has been unequivocally downward. 2018 provided a little bit of hope, but this year has been a clear step back in the wrong direction. If 2019 could build off of 2018's relatively good year, or at least match it, then maybe the discussion changes. But it would take a miracle to even get to that point. It would take something this team has never done before in order to get to a place where this season isn't another huge disappointment.

And that's all assuming you get exactly who you want as a replacement. Maybe Nadelen isn't interested. Maybe Marr, if we even want him (how's Albany doing these days?), isn't interested either. Who's left? Tierney? I'll pass. Raymond? Voelker? Meh. The best guys: Tillman, Shay, Danowski, Tierney, etc., are not going anywhere. Maybe you can convince a decent youngish coach like Torpey to head to Homewood but that would mean stepping outside the alumni ranks. If we fire Petro it's likely that the best available coach for the Hopkins lacrosse job is...Petro. Not saying that means a change isn't warranted, but it does mean expectations should be adjusted accordingly.

Not for nothing, but Tierney is having the same success at Hofstra as Danowski did before he moved on to bigger and better things. I can't imagine Hofstra is an easy place to get recruits. Most of the local LI talent doesn't stay "that local" and what does Hofstra offer top tier recruits who are being courted by the Ivy's and other top programs.

I still contend that the day things changed for Hopkins was the day Tierney left. They were able to succeed in 2007 with the folks left behind, but since Benson has taken hold, they can't seem to assemble a "complete" offense and it's getting old watching top recruits excel as freshman (if they get on the field) and then drop off in subsequent years.

I would be very intrigued with Tierney at the helm, and I think he would be more attainable than Marr or Nadelan (speculation about Nadelan, but I have heard that Marr won't leave after they essentially built that program and facilities for him).

Several of Tierney's offenses at Hofstra have been truly painful to watch. Those hoping for more creativity on the offensive end at Hopkins need to look for a more creative coach than Tierney. I get that recruiting there is more difficult, and expectations are lower than at Hopkins, but after this season they won't have made an NCAA tournament in nearly a decade. That's not the kind of track record we should be looking for. I've also heard some...things...about the way that program is run and I think, if the time does come, the Jays need to aim higher.

Nadelen would appear to check all the boxes. But he seems happy at Towson. I just don't know how many realistic options there would be. Maybe you roll the dice on someone like Ryan Brown or Steele Stanwick. Only half kidding.

[HopFan16]

That's all cool. I get your points. My point is simple: Hopkins is a very different environment for an athlete. It's not like Duke, Yale, Towson, etc. Add in the expense, location, etc..... it's a tough sell, imho. So is Syracuse's pricetag.

Brushing aside the particulars of Hopkins itself is a mistake, imho. That's my point.

Look at what happened at Princeton the nanosecond Tierney stopped getting Admin. support to bring in his favored recruits.

There are positives and negatives to every program. Location wise I'd much rather be in Baltimore than New Haven. I'd wager the number of top recruits who see being in Baltimore as a plus far outweigh the number who are scared of living there. Can't tell you the number of times I've heard "being close to home" as an important factor in deciding where to go to college for guys like the Stanwicks, Cole Williams, Ryan Brown, etc. One of the reasons Joel Tinney said he picked Hopkins was that, coming from Canada, he wanted to be in the center of the lacrosse world.

Hop has its drawbacks. Absolutely no question about it. So do other schools.

[DocBarrister]

If the Blue Jays keep playing at the same level, I could see this team going 1-4 in the B1G, missing the conference tournament, and being ineligible for the NCAAs. Really do think that’s a possibility.

However, I think this team is very close to being one that could win another five games and reach the NCAA tournament.

If everyone fulfills their potential, including the coaches? I can see this team running the B1G, and I mean 7-0 and a top-four seed. That’s not likely to happen, but this much maligned team has that much potential.

I will “settle” for another 4 or 5 wins. Blue Jays should be aspiring to much, much more.

DocBarrister

[runrussellrun]

If there is a change, people should expect things to get worse, not better, in the short term. My guess is people aren't going to like what the 2020 season brings with a new regime. Guys are going to transfer. I know of at least one major contributor on the team right now who was going to leave if Petro took the Michigan job. The players respect him. Many of them commit because of the family atmosphere Petro has cultivated. If he leaves you can also expect some big-time commits to start looking at other offers. Maybe it pays off in the long run but culture changes can be pretty tumultuous. Who knows how the team reacts.

And that's all assuming you get exactly who you want as a replacement.

And it's also assuming the Head Coach is the problem. Maybe Hopkins is the problem, no? How much is tuition, again?

Meanwhile, Tillman keeps notching Final Fours, and is competing for Final Fours every yeear. Anyone notice that In State tuition is four figures at UMd?

Those mentioning the Michigan job....all those folks who assumed Michigan could start booking trips to the Final Four didn't want to hear that Michigan isn't the slam dunk that all the know it alls assume. They just lost to Delaware, and are 3-5 headed into their Big Ten Schedule. Guess Final Four plans will have wait another year.

Point being, fans don't want to hear the realities of their favorite schools' ability to attract the best players.

I'm a Syracuse fan. I don't expect we'll see a Final Four anytime soon. If we do, great. If not----they're fun to watch. Relax, enjoy the games. Mike Powell isn't arriving on campus anytime soon. I'm ok with that.

A conundrum, this sentence. You're assuming that they are the best. They are NOT recruiting the best. As far as attracting them, how many HIGH school lacrosse players visited Ann Arbor this semester, prior to starting their own seasons? The Michigan alum network......vast.....is still collecting dust when it comes to lacrosse. Oh, but inswag lacro$$e says this kids a stud. umm....ok.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

High ALL of the Stanwicks.

[Hawkeye]

Blue Jays got blown out by two stellar Loyola and Towson teams.

Sadly that Towson team is looking less and less stellar as the weeks go on. A lot of their standing was built on beating Hopkins (trending downward in terms of quality) and Loyola when they were #1. Towson may still be a tournament team come May, but it’s not the certainty that it looked like when the calendar turned to March.

[a fan]

Hopkins has been a “tough sell” for over one hundred and forty years. Hasn’t stopped the university from being one of the most dominant schools in any sport.

DocBarrister

Yup. Same goes for Syracuse. Both keep missing Final Fours. Both have the exact same coaching staffs they had when Final Fours and Championships were routine.

What changed?

All I'm suggesting is: maybe coaching and the recruits these coaches can't land aren't the problem. It's mistake to dismiss this suggestion.

[jhu06]

I'm glad we're not at the "expectations of forum posters are too high because it's not the past and there's parity"anymore. That's a positive!

If you're making the argument the coaching staff should be brought back, barring marked improvement over the next 7 weeks, what is the argument for doing so based on their work since the last contract renewal and then the second question is who has the credentials to lead the next regime?

1 FF in a decade does not cut it at an acc/maryland/hopkins.

[DMac]

Go back to your first of forty-four championships, and look at how many places a top notch lacrosse player had to go if he wanted to play at the highest level with a darn good chance of winning a championship. Compare that to today. I don't think it's reasonable to not recognize that top notch players aren't as easily lured to a Hopkins or Cuse. Lot of places you can go today to play at an elite level aside from the money issue (and standing on the sidelines for a year or two...see Malloy and Wisnauskis).

[DocBarrister]

I'm glad we're not at the "expectations of forum posters are too high because it's not the past and there's parity"anymore. That's a positive!

If you're making the argument the coaching staff should be brought back, barring marked improvement over the next 7 weeks, what is the argument for doing so based on their work since the last contract renewal and then the second question is who has the credentials to lead the next regime?

1 FF in a decade does not cut it at an acc/maryland/hopkins.

Don’t know about others, but I think any contract extension should be based on a Final Four appearance, nothing less. National title, even better.

As for buying out Petro’s contract, I think the winningest coach in Hopkins lacrosse history has earned the right to at least finish his current contract.

I’m rooting for the Big Guy, but I’m sure he understands that time is running short.

DocBarrister