THE 2019 Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

[OCanada]

Weight of coaches?? Please.

[51percentcorn]

Talent was the issue in this game. I never saw any adjustment that Tiffany made to swing the tide like Desko did with the two poles on the face-off. UVA just has better players. Conrad, Aitken and Moore were the number 1 recruits in their respective classes. Now you can argue that Petro didn't come up with anything magical tactics wise on his side - which is very true - at least it wasn't apparent. The issue with so many converted attackmen are the following (some have been pointed out before):
- They tend to be smaller
- They aren't used to playing from up in the middle of the field - so they revert to the invert
- They never had to play defense
- They typically don't have dominant outside shots so they are not well suited for alley dodge or step down shots (yes I know Marr and Wharton and others have incredible shots and played attack but they are stand still shooters - they couldn't play real middie either)

And the final point is that you can likely survive with one or two converted attackmen - 4,5 or 6 take your pick - is a problem and shows the roster construction issue. To use the Bill Parcell's analogy - Petro is shopping for groceries and is throwing everything in the cart without regards as to the final meal. Consequently things spoil sitting in the pantry and the final product doesn't taste very good.

[kramerica.inc]

No hiccups allowed now. Given the schedule, we need the next 3 wins to improve our chances of being NCAA tourney eligible.

[Hawkeye]

No hiccups allowed now. Given the schedule, we need the next 3 wins to improve our chances of being NCAA tourney eligible.

I think Hopkins basically has to win the next 3 and then needs one of Penn State/Maryland or it's probably over without an AQ. (So what I hear myself saying is that it's probably over.)

[HopFan16]

The only way this is not over is if there's a 2015-esque turnaround, and last I checked Ryan Brown, Joel Tinney, Mike Pellegrino, Wells Stanwick et al are not walking through that door.

The next two are absolute, no questions asked, must wins. Lose either of those and it's over for real. 2-3 might get you 4th place and a spot in the Big Ten tournament and TECHNICALLY give you a nonzero chance of getting an auto-bid but you'd feel much better at 3-2—meaning they'd still have to win 1 out of the OSU-PSU-Maryland trifecta, and nothing to this point indicates that's likely. But, best case scenario: We go 3-2 in the conference, finish the regular season at 7-6 with a berth in the conference tourney with a top 10 win—maybe that's bubble territory depending on what else happens. The RPI will be decent by then but if you lose that first round game then you're back to .500 with only 1 or 2 "quality wins"—that's not going to be enough. When your best case scenario only puts you barely on the bubble...you know things have gone poorly.

UNC looks even worse than we do this year, that win is not going to hold up. Pine St/Oak St/whatever he's calling himself these days would normally relish in the Jays misfortunes but he's been unusually quiet. Wonder why.

Princeton win is doing nothing for us. Delaware has a better chance of ending up as a top 20 win but you're grasping at straws at that point.

Barring a miracle, it really does feel like the winds of change have begun to blow. I didn't feel this way even after the '16 and '17 playoff debacles. But you get the sense things are different this time. I do at least.

[Hawkeye]

Barring a miracle, it really does feel like the winds of change have begun to blow. I didn't feel this way even after the '16 and '17 playoff debacles. But you get the sense things are different this time. I do at least.

It's sad to say it -- particularly for me because Petro is all I've ever known as head coach during my time following Hopkins -- but I agree with you. This team has been miserable to watch. During the Syracuse and Virginia games, I never felt like Hopkins was going to win, even when they were leading. The loss felt inevitable and it is miserable to watch games/teams that feel that way. It's time to move on from Petro, whether that's at the end of this season or the end of next season. Things run their course and relationships come to an end. He's done a lot of good for this program, but I feel like he's keeping his spot on built up goodwill rather than recent, tangible accomplishments/merit.

[johnnyonthegunpowder]

Some nice action from Williams drawing slides and finding Marr.

The prototypical Hopkins dodge is kind of a stutter-step-jump-in-the air thingy. It's seems to be something that has been passed down from generation to generation. The thing is, there is no hard pivot, so, well, you know what happens: you meet your defender where you left him. Choreographing dodges and drilling them into muscle memory would be a part of practice, I imagine. Do they have a trainer for this, or an online course at least? This team has some incredible athletes who seemed to be left to find their own creativity despite the fact that it would be beneficial to teach it to them. Actually, forget creative altogether; it's overrated anyway and it's not the virtue people think it is. Rather, they could learn by example, instruction, rote, 2 new choreographed dodges.

I think Keogh has got the stuff that's needed.

Wonderful game from Darby. Bravo!

It will be interesting to see what kind of culture and attitude this freshman class develops given the circumstances.

[DougELax]

Why even be concerned about how to get this team into the tournament? Another playoff blowout loss, another post season press conference where we know this is not the result that is expected and we will reevaluate all aspects of the program. Another off-season of no changes and then the same results for the next season.

[ohmilax34]

Some nice action from Williams drawing slides and finding Marr.

The prototypical Hopkins dodge is kind of a stutter-step-jump-in-the air thingy. It's seems to be something that has been passed down from generation to generation. The thing is, there is no hard pivot, so, well, you know what happens: you meet your defender where you left him. Choreographing dodges and drilling them into muscle memory would be a part of practice, I imagine. Do they have a trainer for this, or an online course at least? This team has some incredible athletes who seemed to be left to find their own creativity despite the fact that it would be beneficial to teach it to them. Actually, forget creative altogether; it's overrated anyway and it's not the virtue people think it is. Rather, they could learn by example, instruction, rote, 2 new choreographed dodges.

I think Keogh has got the stuff that's needed.

Wonderful game from Darby. Bravo!

It will be interesting to see what kind of culture and attitude this freshman class develops given the circumstances.

The guy teaching the dodges wasn’t much of a dodger himself. It doesn’t mean he can’t teach it, but he certainly won’t be speaking from experience.

From what I watched of the UVA game, and most JHU games, Epstein looks great. He can dodge just fine and I think he learned it before he got to campus.

[Big Dog]

I didn't feel this way even after the '16 and '17 playoff debacles.

You should have. The blowout loss to Brown was embarrassing, and a harbinger of things to come.

[ABV 8.3%]

Some nice action from Williams drawing slides and finding Marr.

The prototypical Hopkins dodge is kind of a stutter-step-jump-in-the air thingy. It's seems to be something that has been passed down from generation to generation. The thing is, there is no hard pivot, so, well, you know what happens: you meet your defender where you left him. Choreographing dodges and drilling them into muscle memory would be a part of practice, I imagine. Do they have a trainer for this, or an online course at least? This team has some incredible athletes who seemed to be left to find their own creativity despite the fact that it would be beneficial to teach it to them. Actually, forget creative altogether; it's overrated anyway and it's not the virtue people think it is. Rather, they could learn by example, instruction, rote, 2 new choreographed dodges.

I think Keogh has got the stuff that's needed.

Wonderful game from Darby. Bravo!

It will be interesting to see what kind of culture and attitude this freshman class develops given the circumstances.

The guy teaching the dodges wasn’t much of a dodger himself. It doesn’t mean he can’t teach it, but he certainly won’t be speaking from experience.

From what I watched of the UVA game, and most JHU games, Epstein looks great. He can dodge just fine and I think he learned it before he got to campus.

Epstein is a beast, the kid competes. At the end of the game, while Epstein was walking past the UVA bench, could have sworn he gave Lars the " call me" gesture.

[ABV 8.3%]

Weight of coaches?? Please.

Apparently it's important to people. I would consult facemash founder zuckerberg into comparing pictures. Of course, this format is probably best for choosing a winning coach

http://brackify.com/bracket/9599/Sports ... suit-Model

[Hawkeye]

Why even be concerned about how to get this team into the tournament? Another playoff blowout loss, another post season press conference where we know this is not the result that is expected and we will reevaluate all aspects of the program. Another off-season of no changes and then the same results for the next season.

Is it this clear?
Make the tournament and lose... -> nothing changes
Miss the tournament... -> something changes

I kind of doubt the outcomes are this black and white, so I'll continue to be concerned about how to get this team into the tournament until it's mathematically impossible. While I don't see it happening this year (even getting in looks very unlikely), miracle runs can and do happen. Ask UNC.

[steel_hop]

Barring a miracle, it really does feel like the winds of change have begun to blow. I didn't feel this way even after the '16 and '17 playoff debacles. But you get the sense things are different this time. I do at least.

It's time to move on from Petro, whether that's at the end of this season or the end of next season. Things run their course and relationships come to an end. He's done a lot of good for this program, but I feel like he's keeping his spot on built up goodwill rather than recent, tangible accomplishments/merit.

If it should end it should end. There is no reason to keep someone around another year just to fulfill some sentimental need.
Hopkins can find enough change in the sofa and from its big donors to buyout Petro's last year. I interact with many small businesses and many view hiring/firing this way "hire slowly and fire quickly." There is no sense not ripping the band aid off. Of course, I would have never given Petro an extension after 2015 and I would fired him the year he missed the playoffs with a senior laden team (rolling suspensions or not) because that was the straw that broke the back given the failure the 4 years leading up to 2013.

One of his biggest issues is the loyalty he retains. There is no question loyalty is something that is lacking today. But, it can also be bad. This is keep throwing Dismuke out there instead of looking at the stats showing the offense works better with F. Smith in his place. This is not starting Wells or Shake right away. This is the same as not starting Zinn now - loyalty to a player that isn't cutting it on the field.

This is the same thing in showing loyalty to Benson. Benson's offense is not dynamic in the least and quite boring and given the new shot clock a detriment. One of the major reasons top ball driving attack recruits don't typically come to Hopkins is Benson's offense and Petro's desire to choke the life out of the ball. His offense doesn't lend itself to attracting those type of players. I am sure Petro's view on offense don't help. But, Benson has directed an offense that has repeatedly stunk up the joint given the talent - 2 goals against Navy, 4 goals in a homecoming game against Loyola, 5 against UMd in 2017. His lack of ability to make in game adjustments is mind blowing.

But, Benson does himself no favors given that he's always seemed to over evaluate small attackman on the recruiting trails. DiSimone, Concannon, etc. are just follow ups to Palmer, Palazek and others. It isn't like Brown was some physical specimen. Nor is Epstein. They had other attributes that make up for size but the other guys just don't have which isn't a knock no them. They all seem to fit the same mold - small 5'7"-5'9" relative slow attackmen that we are going to move to midfield because we can't effectively recruit offensive middies. And when you get too many of those guys on a roster and you try to get the best 9 offensive players on the field without looking at how those parts work together, you get what you have in 2019 at Hopkins a slow midfield that can't physically beat their men. If they get trapped on defense they are instant "go to goal" targets. I think one of the reasons you might move Williams to middie is that he is at least physically big enough to push a guy farther out when he is targeted on a drive.

This is the same loyalty Petro's displayed to Hopkins. I truly think he would have been interested in the UM job but his loyalty to Hopkins held him back (again not bad thing in some scheme). But, it would have been better for all parties he looked (and moved if offered). There is no doubt he's accomplished a lot at Hopkins but 20 years at the same school and one that it probably the most stressful in all of college lacrosse has to be draining. There is nothing wrong with moving on to a different challenge at this stage of his career. There was no question that Princeton had taken a step back in the last 3-4 years Tierney was there. He moves to Denver to be closer to family and build a program and he is right back where he was when Princeton was winning title in the 90s. The same can happen for Petro.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Getting to 7-7 and getting in on RPI, SOS, and watching people’s heads explode could be fun though.

I always enjoy that.

[steel_hop]

Why even be concerned about how to get this team into the tournament? Another playoff blowout loss, another post season press conference where we know this is not the result that is expected and we will reevaluate all aspects of the program. Another off-season of no changes and then the same results for the next season.

Is it this clear?
Make the tournament and lose... -> nothing changes
Miss the tournament... -> something changes

I kind of doubt the outcomes are this black and white, so I'll continue to be concerned about how to get this team into the tournament until it's mathematically impossible. While I don't see it happening this year (even getting in looks very unlikely), miracle runs can and do happen. Ask UNC.

I think that is true. Until Petro is forced to make true changes or the changes are made for him (i.e. he's been canned), there is no sense in not wanting the program to make the tournament.

[HopFan16]

I didn't feel this way even after the '16 and '17 playoff debacles.

You should have. The blowout loss to Brown was embarrassing, and a harbinger of things to come.

Hindsight is 20/20. Firing the guy based on one playoff loss to what was pretty special Brown team—and only one year removed from a Final Four appearance—would have been impetuous. 2015 should have, and did, earn the staff a little bit more leeway, but that leeway might be up if this season ends the way it looks like it's going to.

If there is a change, people should expect things to get worse, not better, in the short term. My guess is people aren't going to like what the 2020 season brings with a new regime. Guys are going to transfer. I know of at least one major contributor on the team right now who was going to leave if Petro took the Michigan job. The players respect him. Many of them commit because of the family atmosphere Petro has cultivated. If he leaves you can also expect some big-time commits to start looking at other offers. Maybe it pays off in the long run but culture changes can be pretty tumultuous. Who knows how the team reacts.

And that's all assuming you get exactly who you want as a replacement. Maybe Nadelen isn't interested. Maybe Marr, if we even want him (how's Albany doing these days?), isn't interested either. Who's left? Tierney? I'll pass. Raymond? Voelker? Meh. The best guys: Tillman, Shay, Danowski, Tierney, etc., are not going anywhere. Maybe you can convince a decent youngish coach like Torpey to head to Homewood but that would mean stepping outside the alumni ranks. If we fire Petro it's likely that the best available coach for the Hopkins lacrosse job is...Petro. Not saying that means a change isn't warranted, but it does mean expectations should be adjusted accordingly.

[johnnyonthegunpowder]

Some nice action from Williams drawing slides and finding Marr.

The prototypical Hopkins dodge is kind of a stutter-step-jump-in-the air thingy. It's seems to be something that has been passed down from generation to generation. The thing is, there is no hard pivot, so, well, you know what happens: you meet your defender where you left him. Choreographing dodges and drilling them into muscle memory would be a part of practice, I imagine. Do they have a trainer for this, or an online course at least? This team has some incredible athletes who seemed to be left to find their own creativity despite the fact that it would be beneficial to teach it to them. Actually, forget creative altogether; it's overrated anyway and it's not the virtue people think it is. Rather, they could learn by example, instruction, rote, 2 new choreographed dodges.

I think Keogh has got the stuff that's needed.

Wonderful game from Darby. Bravo!

It will be interesting to see what kind of culture and attitude this freshman class develops given the circumstances.

The guy teaching the dodges wasn’t much of a dodger himself. It doesn’t mean he can’t teach it, but he certainly won’t be speaking from experience.

From what I watched of the UVA game, and most JHU games, Epstein looks great. He can dodge just fine and I think he learned it before he got to campus.

Epstein is a beast, the kid competes. At the end of the game, while Epstein was walking past the UVA bench, could have sworn he gave Lars the " call me" gesture.

That's exactly my thought. Do we see top players making Albany-like exits at the end of this season?

[a fan]

If there is a change, people should expect things to get worse, not better, in the short term. My guess is people aren't going to like what the 2020 season brings with a new regime. Guys are going to transfer. I know of at least one major contributor on the team right now who was going to leave if Petro took the Michigan job. The players respect him. Many of them commit because of the family atmosphere Petro has cultivated. If he leaves you can also expect some big-time commits to start looking at other offers. Maybe it pays off in the long run but culture changes can be pretty tumultuous. Who knows how the team reacts.

And that's all assuming you get exactly who you want as a replacement.

And it's also assuming the Head Coach is the problem. Maybe Hopkins is the problem, no? How much is tuition, again?

Meanwhile, Tillman keeps notching Final Fours, and is competing for Final Fours every yeear. Anyone notice that In State tuition is four figures at UMd?

Those mentioning the Michigan job....all those folks who assumed Michigan could start booking trips to the Final Four didn't want to hear that Michigan isn't the slam dunk that all the know it alls assume. They just lost to Delaware, and are 3-5 headed into their Big Ten Schedule. Guess Final Four plans will have wait another year.

Point being, fans don't want to hear the realities of their favorite schools' ability to attract the best players.

I'm a Syracuse fan. I don't expect we'll see a Final Four anytime soon. If we do, great. If not----they're fun to watch. Relax, enjoy the games. Mike Powell isn't arriving on campus anytime soon. I'm ok with that.

[Big Dog]

Hindsight is 20/20. Firing the guy based on one playoff loss to what was pretty special Brown team....

It was way we were blown out. It was clear then that The Hop did not have the athleticism to keep up. But at least those were old rules and we could play keep away with great passing to slow down faster/quicker teams. Shot clock changes the types of players we need to sign.

My guess is people aren't going to like what the 2020 season brings with a new regime. Guys are going to transfer. I know of at least one major contributor on the team right now who was going to leave if Petro took the Michigan job.

Is there also not a risk of current guys transferring if there are no changes? These players are really competitive and hate to lose. They want to be on a winning team, a tournament team that plays on Championship Weekend. Is that even realistic for a star [Frosh] in the next couple of years?