All Things Russia & Ukraine

[NattyBohChamps04]

Nuclear plant is burning.

Which one?

[Typical Lax Dad]

Nuclear plant is burning.

Which one?

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 7a645a9154

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian forces shelled Europe’s largest nuclear plant early Friday, sparking a fire as they pressed their attack on a crucial energy-producing Ukrainian city and gained ground in their bid to cut off the country from the sea.

The world’s leading nuclear authorities saw no immediate cause for alarm about damage to the facility, but the assault triggered a phone call between U.S. President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the U.S. Department of Energy activated its nuclear incident response team as a precaution.

The attack on the eastern city of Enerhodar and its Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant unfolded as the invasion entered its second week and another round of talks between the two sides yielded a tentative agreement to set up safe corridors to evacuate citizens and deliver humanitarian aid.

Nuclear plant spokesman Andriy Tuz told Ukrainian television that shells were falling directly on the facility and had set fire to one of its six reactors. That reactor is under renovation and not operating, but there is nuclear fuel inside, he said.

Firefighters cannot get near the flames because they are being shot at, he said, and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted a plea to the Russians to stop the assault and allow fire teams inside.

“We demand that they stop the heavy weapons fire,” Tuz said in a video statement. “There is a real threat of nuclear danger in the biggest atomic energy station in Europe.”

[old salt]

From behind the NRO paywall :

Beware Wishful Thinking in Evaluating the Ukraine Crisis
by CHARLES C. W. COOKE, March 1, 2022

Here is what I would like to happen in Ukraine:

Outraged by Russia’s aggression, armed Ukrainians in both the country’s military and its spontaneously formed civilian militias are able to fight hard enough in all regions that the demoralized and confused Russian army retreats with its tail between its legs. Appalled by the spectacle, and vowing “never again,” the international community comes together to turn Russia into a pariah state — limiting its access to international institutions, weakening its economy, draining the country of talent, and making Vladimir Putin’s position untenable even within his own circle. Alarmed by their vulnerability, previously unreliable nations such as Germany commit to increasing defense spending and to taking NATO more seriously. In the West, the tales of Ukrainian bravery become the stuff of legend, and in Ukraine, President Zelensky cruises to reelection as the new symbol of national resolve. In casual conversation, “Zelensky” and “Putin” become avatars of Good and Evil, while “invading Ukraine” becomes colloquial shorthand for “doing something stupid.” Putin is forced out of office, and Russia reforms itself. The experiment is universally deemed to have been a failure, and we learn that, despite all odds, the world has changed substantially since the mid 20th century.

That’s what I’d like to happen. It’s also what I’m being led to believe, by social media and the hive that sustains it, is happening. Unfortunately, I’m not sure that anything ever turns out that neatly, and I’m not sure that the crisis in Ukraine will, either. As a country, we would do well to remember that, and so to ask some meaningful follow-up questions beyond “Which team do we like?”

The sad truth is that — myself included, of course — we really do not know as much about what is happening in Ukraine as we’d like to. Some of the things we thought we knew — that 13 soldiers were killed heroically on Snake Island; that a mysterious flying ace was downing Russian planes; that random women are carrying rifles on public transport — turned out not to be true. Some of the things we have simply assumed — that because Russia’s invasion seems to have made slower progress than the Kremlin anticipated, the Russian military is on the verge of giving up rather than of changing tactics — are as much wishful thinking as they are analysis. And some of the things that we seem to have forgotten — that the world is full of extremely complex systems that usually cannot be altered overnight — will soon become as apparent as ever. If Russia loses this war, Noah Rothman notes over at Commentary, many of the results will be “of material benefit to the West” — but also “extremely dangerous.” As the ultimate stewards of our government, we would profit from ensuring that our national conversation covers these specifics as much as it is covering the generalities.

War is a terrible thing, and it seems likely that it is about to get far more horrible still. Unless the Russians contrive a clever reason to desist, the next stage will likely involve the broad deployment of heavy artillery and the beginning of missile strikes on Ukrainian cities. There will be fighting in and around major population centers. Volunteers will be wiped out. Children will be maimed. War crimes will be committed. The result of this — even if the ploy ultimately fails — will probably not be the good guys rushing in to save the day, but thousands upon thousands of painful deaths. And then what? It seems clear that there remains enough fighting spirit within the broader Ukrainian population to make a permanent Russian occupation impossible. But Russia, too, can play games with its enemies’ resolve. It’s easy to tweet platitudes and change your Facebook avatar to a yellow and blue flag. But are we going to risk a nuclear war over Kyiv or Kharkiv?

All of this is a long way of saying that Americans should be careful not to get carried away, or to become so obsessed with hating the bad guys and loving the good guys that they become unaware of the details on the ground. Despite what the media would like to be true, Americans do not actually need to be fed infantile or cynical analogies in order to discern that Russia is the bad actor here: As of yesterday, just 2 percent of Republicans and Democrats thought that the United States had been “too tough” in response to Putin’s aggression, while 80 percent of Republicans and 44 percent of Democrats believed that it had not been “tough enough.” What we need is to be leveled with — about the real state of the war, about the most likely set of outcomes, and about the broader knock-on effects that might result. We need to grasp the potential consequences of escalation, and the potential consequences of inaction. We need to ask ourselves tough questions such as “If Russia were to invade Poland, should American soldiers be deployed?” and “At what point are we willing to fight?” We need to distinguish between war propaganda — which has a real value to those fighting — and the truth. And, perhaps most important of all, we need to evaluate our non-violent responses on their long-term merits, as well as within the existing good guy–bad guy dichotomy.

There is a season for cheerleading, but cheerleading alone will not suffice.

[runrussellrun]

sanctions

I support Hillary Clinton on this....no fly zones ,NOW What could go wrong?

[old salt]

Support increases for new US bases in Eastern Europe as Russian troops move into Ukraine
by JOHN VANDIVER• STARS AND STRIPES • FEBRUARY 22, 2022

STUTTGART, Germany — The establishment of permanent American military bases in allied countries near Russia has been a NATO taboo for 25 years.

But Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement Monday recognizing the independence of two self-proclaimed “people’s republics” in eastern Ukraine and subsequent movement of troops toward the breakaway territories could be the impetus to cast aside an agreement limiting how NATO members base troops on the alliance’s eastern flank.

“I believe the alliance and/or the U.S. are going to seriously reconsider our position on permanent basing in Poland, Romania and the Baltic countries,” said retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, who led the U.S. Army in Europe from 2014 to 2017.

In an effort to assuage Kremlin fears about NATO, the alliance signed an agreement with Russia in 1997 that aimed to promote transparency and trust.

The NATO-Russia Founding Act said that no permanent allied bases would be set up in new member countries in the east, and troop deployments would be limited in scope and duration.

“I think that act of good faith on our part has been rewarded with continuous Russian aggression,” Hodges said.

Now pressure is building in NATO to stake out a more formidable military presence in countries once dominated by the Soviet Union, the predecessor of today’s Russian Federation.

Critics of the NATO-Russia Founding Act say it became a relic following the 2008 war Russia waged against Georgia and its first invasion of Ukraine in 2014.

Russia’s aggressive moves against Ukraine could lead NATO allies to reexamine a 1997 deal that prevents permanent basing arrangements in countries near Russia.

Russia loyalists in the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk people’s republics, and nearby parts of the Donbas region, have since been at war with the Ukrainian central government for several years. At times, Russian military members have fought alongside them.

Following Putin’s announcement Monday, Russian forces moved toward the region openly as “peacekeepers.”

Putin’s recent actions may be swaying allies who were hesitant to pull the plug on the founding act until now.

Earlier this month, French diplomats indicated an inclination to discard the act should Russia launch a new invasion in Ukraine, the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine reported last week.

Other allies say it’s long past time for NATO to go bigger in the east. Poland and Romania have long sought permanently based U.S. troops on their territory.

Putin’s comments Monday about Ukraine, which he described as part of Russia’s “spiritual space,” were likely to heighten the sense of urgency among NATO allies Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, all of which have complicated histories with Russia and notable Russian-speaking communities.

On Saturday, during a joint news conference with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Lithuania’s foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, reaffirmed his country’s quest for permanent American troops.

Romania is one of the countries the U.S. has sent additional troops to on a deployment to reassure NATO allies wary of Russia.

“We need to make sure that (Putin) sees that his actions are creating a response in the Baltic region ... and we are reinforced, we are strengthened, and we do not allow him to even think about looking (in our direction),” he said.

So far, the U.S. has sent 5,000 extra troops to Europe in response to the crisis around Ukraine, where between 169,000 and 190,000 Russian military members are assembled along the border areas, according to U.S. estimates.

Some security analysts say Russia’s aggressive moves should force the Pentagon to reexamine its global defense posture writ large, especially the Army’s role in Europe, where troop numbers dwindled sharply after the Cold War.

Hodges said the Army in Europe needs more capability to maneuver faster in the east, along with added air defense weaponry. The Army’s recently reestablished V Corps headquarters in Kentucky, which manages maneuvers along the allied eastern flank, has a small forward element of rotational soldiers in Poland. Basing the full headquarters in Poland would make them more effective, Hodges said.

Barry Pavel, director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council, said in an op-ed published Thursday in Defense One that the U.S. Army now must prioritize Europe to counter Russia.

“Beyond the Korean Peninsula, there should be no other top priority for the Army,” he wrote. “Europe is where it’s needed the most, and it has very limited roles elsewhere.”

Georgia is not a NATO member (yet). Operations from there should not be considered NATO operations.
We could make Georgia our Black Sea aircraft carrier. Deployment base for USAF F-16's & tankers.
Protected by deployed THAAD, Patriot & Iron Dome batteries. Would not be constrained by NATO.

[Farfromgeneva]

Had a conversation with a friend in Düsseldorf this am and she’s picked and ready to bounce to the US with her kids. Thinks most of her country mates are naive as all get out about this. Some of her comments:

Yes it is a really bad situation and really worrisome. We offered to take in a Ukrainian Family (no odd has been assigned yet) but maybe that is not the best move right now. We have all our travel permits ready and are checking flights every day. We packed the most important things in case of a quick departure. Strangely enough Germans do not seem concerned. I don’t get how naive people are… But I guess that is good for us because we can Grätsche our bags and leave within minutes and then there are still flights and options.

Russia’s Shelling of Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant Sparks Alarm

The attack comes as Russian forces shift to more indiscriminate tactics after meeting strong Ukrainian resistance

Yaroslav Trofimov
Updated March 4, 2022 4:54 am ET
Updated March 4, 2022 4:54 am ET
Advance Russian forces pushing from the south reached Enerhodar on Wednesday. After attempted surrender negotiations failed, a large column of Russian forces attacked the city on Thursday. Webcam footage showed a large fireball rising behind a church in the city, a short distance from the nuclear facilities, and then two munitions, possibly illumination rounds, landed on the compound itself.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video posted on social media that Russia’s actions show that Europe needs to wake up.

Enerhodar Mayor Dmitry Orlov released footage showing an explosion behind a church located a few miles from the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plan. Credit: Dmitry Orlov via Storyful
“Russian tanks are shooting at nuclear reactors. They know where they are shooting,” he said. “No state in the history of mankind except Russia has ever shelled a nuclear station. It is now engaging in nuclear terrorism.”

Mr. Zelensky recalled the 1986 explosion in northern Ukraine’s Chernobyl power plant, which sent radioactive clouds across Europe.

“Russia wants to repeat it, but six times over,” he said. “If it explodes, it’s the end of Europe. It will require the evacuation of Europe.”


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video posted on social media that Russia’s actions show that Europe needs to wake up.
Photo: -/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
As of Friday morning, the management building at the Zaporizhzhya plant was under the control of Russian forces, said Energoatom, the operator of all Ukrainian nuclear power generators. Ukrainian staff at the plant were continuing their work. There have been fatalities among Ukrainian defenders of the facility, Energoatom said.

The war that Russian President Vladimir Putin launched on Ukraine more than a week ago, aiming to overthrow its democratically elected government and end its alignment with the West, has run into fierce Ukrainian resistance. While Russian forces have advanced in the northeast and south of the country, the offensive has stalled around the capital, Kyiv, and Moscow has resorted more to indiscriminate shelling of civilian neighborhoods in cities like Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Mariupol and Sumy.

Russian shelling in the power plant area paused after 3 a.m. local time, Enerhodar Mayor Dmitry Orlov wrote on social media. Ukraine’s state emergency service said that the fire, which engulfed the third, fourth and fifth floors of the nuclear plant’s training building was extinguished at 6:20 a.m. For hours, Russian forces prevented the emergency service from dispatching firefighters to the site, it said.

At the time of the Russian attack, two of the six reactors were operating and the plant’s management switched off reactor No. 3 at 2:26 a.m., leaving only reactor No. 4 online, the service said. In addition to the Zaporizhzhia plant, Ukraine operates nine other nuclear reactors elsewhere in the country.


Buildings damaged by Russian shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine.
Photo: sergey bobok/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
The shelling of the plant “just demonstrates the recklessness of this war and the importance of ending it,” said Jens Stoltenberg, secretary-general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, as he greeted U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday.

Mr. Zelensky spoke with President Biden about the attack on the plant. Following the call, which occurred late Thursday night Washington time, Mr. Biden urged Russia to “cease its military activities in the area and allow firefighters and emergency responders to access the site,” according to the White House.

U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm wrote on Twitter that she had spoken with Ukraine’s energy minister. “We have seen no elevated radiation readings near the facility,” she said. In a telephone call early Friday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told Mr. Zelensky that the U.K. would seek an emergency United Nations Security Council meeting to address the shelling of the plant, his office said in a statement.

In recent days, the International Atomic Energy Agency has underscored that Ukraine’s reactors have modernized safety procedures and are built to withstand major incidents. Agency officials have expressed more concern about a missile hitting nuclear waste facilities that are less protected and about the inability to get emergency repair teams in place because of the fighting.

What the War in Ukraine Looks Like on Russian State Media
What the War in Ukraine Looks Like on Russian State Media
What the War in Ukraine Looks Like on Russian State Media
Media coverage of Russian troops invading Ukraine is unfolding differently in Russia than in the U.S. Using maps and disinformation, many television programs are shaping public opinion by justifying Moscow’s decision to attack its neighbor. Photo composite: Sharon Shi
Still, earlier this week, the IAEA expressed concern about the safety of Ukraine’s nuclear plants, noting that Russian military forces were advancing on the Zaporizhzhia facility.

Mr. Orlov, the mayor of Enerhodar, said on Ukrainian television that the column of Russian armored vehicles broke into the city at around 4:30 p.m. local time on Thursday and started firing at the buildings of the nuclear compound from a short range without warning. There were casualties among the civilian population but it wasn’t possible to evacuate wounded people to hospitals quickly because of continued fighting, he said. As of 7:34 a.m. local time on Friday, Russian troops weren’t visible on Enerhodar’s streets, he said. The city was without heating because of damage caused by the attacks, he added.

Later in the morning, Mr. Orlov said in a video recording that no civilians were hurt, that Russian forces had only fired blanks, and that the local population shouldn’t try to oppose Russian troops. Ukrainian officials said the recording may have been made under duress.

A resident of Enerhodar who gave her name as Marina said she and her family had been sheltering at their home throughout the night and into the day.

“Our city doesn’t even have any bomb shelters,” she said. “They don’t tell us anything, and we can’t find out anything. If there’s an explosion, Ukraine, Europe and Russia will blow up together.”

The fire at the nuclear power plant comes after Moscow intensified its military offensive in southern Ukraine, penetrating the city of Kherson as Russian and Ukrainian negotiators agreed to establish “humanitarian corridors” to allow civilians to leave besieged cities.

Negotiators, however, failed to reach an agreement on an overall cease-fire, and Mr. Putin signaled he is determined to continue the war.


Ukraine’s military said Friday that Russia continues preparations for an amphibious assault on the port city of Odessa.
Photo: Gilles Bader/Zuma Press
The mayor of Mariupol, Vadym Boychenko, said that the Azov Sea port, surrounded by Russian forces and relentlessly shelled, is “on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe.” He said the city lacks food and needs a pause in the fighting to repair damaged electricity and water services to its 430,000 residents.

In Ukraine’s southern city of Kherson, the first regional capital seized by the Russian advance, occupation forces have taken over the local administration buildings but, for now at least, didn’t remove Ukraine’s blue-and-yellow flag from the regional government headquarters, according to residents.

Kherson Gov. Hennadiy Lahuta said Friday that Russia has bussed a large number of people from Crimea, the nearby peninsula that Moscow seized and annexed in 2014, and plans to organize a propaganda event on the city’s Freedom Square. These people would pretend to be local residents, wave Russian flags and ask for Kherson, home to 270,000 people, to be separated from Ukraine, he said. “Stay away from this theater of the absurd, don’t help the enemy,” he urged.

In several other towns previously seized by Russia, such as Melitopol, Kupyansk and Berdyansk, local residents have come out to the streets, waving Ukrainian flags, yelling at Russian soldiers to go home, and trying to block the movement of Russian columns.

Mr. Zelensky on Thursday called on residents of Russian-occupied areas such as Kherson to resist, saying that sooner or later the Russians would be forced to leave. The Ukrainian army urged civilians in the rear to focus on attacking lightly armed supply convoys, saying that Russian tanks on the front line would be useless without fuel or ammunition.

“We will chase them away, with shame,” Mr. Zelensky said. “Every occupier must know they will not obtain anything here. They will not have anyone submit to them. Anywhere they enter they will be exterminated.”


Refugees coming from Ukraine waiting to board a bus Friday in Bucharest, Romania.
Photo: mihai barbu/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Ukraine’s military said Friday that the Russian military’s main effort continues to focus on surrounding Kyiv and weakening resistance in cities that have already been encircled. Amid heavy fighting, the Russian military has exhausted most of its operational reserves in the area, and is preparing to send additional forces to Ukraine, it said. Russia continues preparations for an amphibious assault on the port city of Odessa, Ukraine’s military added.

On Thursday night and Friday morning, Ukraine released footage of what it said was a successful pushback on Kyiv’s outskirts, with destroyed Russian armor and dead Russian soldiers on the streets of the towns of Bucha, Irpen and Hostomel in the northwest and the village of Peremoha in the northeast.

“Ukrainian armed forces have gained more tanks and armored personnel carriers as trophies than they received from Ukrainian defense industries in the past eight years,” Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Friday. He added that the Ukrainian military had to make “difficult decisions,” maneuvering away from some areas, in order to preserve its fighting forces. Ukraine also sank the flagship of its navy, Hetman Sahaydachny, that was under repair so it wouldn’t fall into enemy hands, he said.

Mr. Putin said Thursday that Russia’s offensive was developing strictly according to plan and was achieving all its goals. In an acknowledgment of the fierceness of Ukrainian resistance, the Russian military said Wednesday that 498 of its soldiers have been killed in Ukraine. These fatalities included Maj. Gen. Andrey Sukhovetskiy, the deputy commander of the 41st Army. Ukrainian and Western officials say the real Russian death toll is much higher.

Ukraine hasn’t acknowledged its own military casualties, which are also believed to be high, but said that some 2,000 civilians have been killed in Russian attacks as of Thursday.

Human Rights Watch said on Friday that Russian forces had fired cluster munitions into at least three residential areas in Kharkiv on Monday, killing at least three civilians, an assessment based on interviews with witnesses and the analysis of videos and photographs. Cluster munitions open before landing and disperse smaller munitions, many of which often fail to explode and can become long-term hazards for civilians. Such munitions are banned by an international treaty that neither Ukraine nor Russia is party to.

In Russia, the government continued to tighten its control on information about the war, which it has described as a defensive operation focused mainly on military targets despite an abundance of evidence showing Russian forces have bombed residential areas and civilian infrastructure.

The lower house of parliament passed legislation Friday imposing prison sentences of up to 15 years for the dissemination of what it calls “fake news” about the actions of Russian soldiers. House speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said the law’s passage would be expedited so that it can be signed by Mr. Putin as soon as possible.

“There’s a chance that literally tomorrow its direct application will force those who lied and made statements discrediting our Armed Forces to face punishment, and a very harsh one,” Mr. Volodin was quoted as saying in a statement published on the website of the Duma, parliament’s lower house. It is unclear if the new law will apply to accredited foreign journalists or only to Russian-language content.

Russia moved swiftly after the start of its invasion to restrict the space for dissent and hammer Mr. Putin’s narrative that the offensive was going according to plan. Police have detained thousands of protesters across the country and blocked media outlets that refused to refer to the war using Mr. Putin’s euphemism of “special military operation.”

As of Friday, multiple news organizations had announced they were halting their operations under state pressure, including popular news outlet Meduza, TV station Dozhd, and radio station Ekho Moskvy, which launched in the waning days of the Soviet Union and has long been seen as a refuge for voices critical of the authorities even as the space for dissent narrowed under Mr. Putin.

—Matthew Luxmoore, Laurence Norman and Brett Forrest contributed to this article.

Write to Yaroslav Trofimov at [email protected]

[seacoaster]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/ ... -lose-war/

"Today the world worries about the fall of Ukraine’s capital city, Kyiv. By summer we may be far more worried about the fall of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Western euphoria over the early Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion has somewhat masked the approaching grim reality. Russia has now introduced some of its most devastating weapons, curiously held back during the initial assault. Putin’s forces are indiscriminately hammering civilian targets in Kharkiv and Kyiv. The war has entered an uglier and bloodier phase, one we watch unfold on our phones. The next chapter for Ukraine will not end well; it’s more likely to feature a repeat of the horrors Russia unleashed on the Chechen capital Grozny in 1999 and the Syrian city Aleppo in 2016 — two broadcasts the West tuned out. After all, Putin has never lost a war.

But it’s crucial to consider what would happen if he did. It would not be a “victory.”

In the United States, we cheer the Ukrainian resistance under the defiant leadership of President Volodymyr Zelensky but have not engaged militarily for one reason above all others: On Sunday, Putin put his country’s nuclear deterrence forces on alert. Hairs rose on the necks of every NATO official over Putin’s implied threat of nuclear retaliation. Fiona Hill, former ​​senior director for European and Russian affairs at the National Security Council​​, disclosed in an interview with Politico that when she was serving in the White House, Putin had seemed to threaten the use of nuclear force during a discussion with President Donald Trump.

When in trouble, Russia and its Soviet forerunners have always employed threats of nuclear war. This Sword of Damocles stokes fear at home and abroad, among officials and the public, and slows down the decision cycle of the United States and its allies. The knee-jerk reaction invokes the old Cold War paradigm: We should do nothing more to help the Ukrainians lest it trigger World War III.

When people encounter something they’ve never seen before, they fall back on what they know or introduce frameworks that feel more comfortable than uncertainty. Nuclear-deterrence-theory jargon such as “mutually assured destruction” fills social media feeds, and old theories about Soviet foreign policy drive American policy debate.

As a student at the U.S. Military Academy who was exposed to the full lineup of Cold War dogma while the Soviet Union crumbled in the early 1990s, I can tell you that nothing I learned in those classes matches what I’m seeing from Putin and Russia today. Putin should not be treated like the Politburo of the 1960s. Technology and money have transformed Russia over the past 30 years and have been essential vectors for Putin’s accrual of power. He’s lost his grip on both in just seven days.

The West has convinced itself that if it refrains from taking further military action, Putin will refrain from destroying Ukraine. During more than two decades as president of Russia, Putin has been consistent about his desire to retake former Soviet territories while persistently lying about his willingness to use force to achieve his goals. To Putin, the lives of Russian soldiers come cheap. Each war he’s won has been followed by another in his quest to be remembered in history as the one who reasserted Russia’s glory as a world power. What happens if Putin thinks he will lose in Ukraine? A loss there might very well lead to the end of his rule — but I’m willing to bet he will not accept his place in history as just another Russian leader who lost to the West.

Fast forward a month from today and consider what the situation might look like in both Ukraine and Russia. The Ukrainians — likely hungry, undersupplied, lacking an air force and wearied from sustained bombing campaigns — may hold the line in hollowed-out Lviv or Kyiv, the West cheering them on while perhaps assisting foreign fighters trickling across the border. Inside Russia, reality will overtake domestic Russian disinformation as possibly 10,000 or more Russian men vanish on the front lines, and crippling sanctions lead to unrest.

Russian oligarchs and Kremlin leaders already know that their president has overplayed his hand, and Putin may need a swift victory in Ukraine. Why wouldn’t he use a nuclear strike to bring Ukraine to its knees and compel the West to succumb to his demands? The question that should terrify us is not just whether Putin will use nuclear weapons if the West does something, but also whether Putin would use them even if the West does nothing.

There’s no deterring a madman, particularly one who has already lost much of his fortune, and possibly his grip on reality. Reports suggest that Putin is isolated and angry; images from his meetings with foreign leaders and aides reinforce that notion. He publicly dressed down his foreign intelligence chief in a staged broadcast, and in every meeting he is positioned bizarrely far from other attendees. Rumors of his failing health, impossible to verify, have swirled the past couple of years, which might explain the intensity of his push to reclaim the historical seat of the Rus empire in Kyiv. These rumors would normally be dismissed, but Western leaders have echoed concerns that there’s something amiss. “I wish I could share more,” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) tweeted, “but for now I can say that it’s pretty obvious that something is off with [Putin].”

The West must help repel the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but that might mean providing an exit strategy for Putin that falls somewhere between exposing him to world humiliation and a coup inside Russia — both of which could bring about unprecedented scenarios involving nuclear strikes.

The Kremlin uses state-to-state diplomacy as a foil for its military maneuvers. Putin or his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, do not present options during negotiations but demands they know won’t be met, all the while resupplying and maneuvering their military forces.

I do not believe the Russian people condone the violence inflicted on Ukraine, and as their sons vanish in combat, the antiwar protests in cities will grow. Information that specifically connects with the Russian people inside Russia offers an opportunity for the West to de-escalate the situation. The Kremlin has fed Russians a steady stream of disinformation to justify the invasion of Ukraine, but do the people believe Putin’s stories? Interviews inside Russia suggest they are increasingly disillusioned. The West should use every digital means available to send the truth about the needless violence Putin has waged.

The Kremlin has sought for years to advance its propaganda and disinformation inside Western democracies; it’s time the West return the favor by amplifying the truth inside Russia. NATO and the United States do not need to produce propaganda; instead they and their populations can simply act as a relay for truthful reporting and on-the-ground videos that let Russian mothers know what happened to their Russian sons.

The United States and its allies should obviously avoid triggering a nuclear exchange, but we should also prepare for the possibility that such an outcome may not be in our control. Economic sanctions might work too well. Russian oligarchs displaced from Western mansions to their homeland dachas might act collectively to pursue regime change against an increasingly irrational and isolated leader. The West should aggressively assess what a Russian civil war or coup might look like and dramatically increase communication with Russia’s most Western-oriented business executives in the conduct of parallel negotiations to better understand the risk of political collapse in Moscow.

And above all we should consider what Putin would do to maintain his winning streak. I suspect it is anything and everything."

[Peter Brown]

Yeah, it's an idiotic take. What kind of "golden bridge" did Putin build for Zelenskyy when he invaded?

You don’t make a good point when you’re essentially trying to equate the west with Putin. Firstly, in the long run, I want to win whatever we call this conflict. I’m not sure Putin even knows what a win looks like at this stage. It appears as if he thinks a win is to cut Ukraine in two, and he assumes he’ll be dead of old age by the time Russia can’t take the ensuing urban combat deaths that surely would occur should Russia achieve its goal of half of Ukraine.

Provide the guy a golden bridge, then let’s be smarter about how to target him. Turkey has been itching to send Crimean Tartars back into Crimea to fight the occupying Russian forces, and naturally Obama’s feeble administration rejected that. Trumps administration couldn’t find Crimea on a map, so they were equally useless.

Elect a guy like Desantis, who has brains and leadership, and I think the world will see a much better outcome.

[MDlaxfan76]

Everything seen through a partisan lens, now a fawning DeSantis lens. Just gross.

Thanks to those posting interesting, thoughtful articles from various serious sources. Salty, seacoaster, Geneva and others.

[Peter Brown]

Everything seen through a partisan lens, now a fawning DeSantis lens. Just gross.

Thanks to those posting interesting, thoughtful articles from various serious sources. Salty, seacoaster, Geneva and others.

Are you accusing others of ‘seeing everything through a partisan lens? OMG.

Meanwhile my post is actually about leadership and brains. You wouldn’t think that, because you’re in fact seeing everything through a partisan lens.

I’d take Cory Booker in the office. I’d take Tulsi Gabbard. I’d take Abigail Spanberger. You know what these three people have in common, MD? I’ll let you guess. But the answer suggests only one of us here is looking at things through a partisan lens.

[jhu72]

Justin Trudeau wants a word

Yup....even in the cartoons......they look like us. white, christians........

no, not the canuckers...........the Ukrainins. Like your media keeps on pointing out.

also, it looks like the trucker is there to HELP the Ukrainians, offering his spacious cab as temporary shelter.

But, certainly, losing access to your life savings isn't devasting. Go ahead, try it for 3 days. try buying something, when you can't. no cash, plastic only. go ahead.....see how long you will last. nope, no big deal. all, because the government was forcing you to take a shot , that clearly does not much, so why force people to take it? Should we make the US Navy Seals, that have legal action against the US govt. over getting the vaccines, ineligible to access their legal funds in their legal banks. Yes....that IS what you love.

+1

RRR knocking it out the park today.

The carefree attitude, of those who upon looking at a government seizing a persons accounts with no court order and no charges, is simply stunning, if not revolting.

.. Kellyanne kissing any convenient ass.

[jhu72]

Former Faux News, Hannity producer arrested for violating U.S. sanctions against Russia. I am sure these guys have no ties to anyone at Faux News today.

[MDlaxfan76]

Everything seen through a partisan lens, now a fawning DeSantis lens. Just gross.

Thanks to those posting interesting, thoughtful articles from various serious sources. Salty, seacoaster, Geneva and others.

Are you accusing others of ‘seeing everything through a partisan lens? OMG.

Meanwhile my post is actually about leadership and brains. You wouldn’t think that, because you’re in fact seeing everything through a partisan lens.

I’d take Cory Booker in the office. I’d take Tulsi Gabbard. I’d take Abigail Spanberger. You know what these three people have in common, MD? I’ll let you guess. But the answer suggests only one of us here is looking at things through a partisan lens.

I don't care who you claim you'd "take", the election isn't until 2024. We have a President right now who you pee on every way you can. Obama pee above as well. And you started pretending you hadn't supported Trump tooth and nail, hadn't supported Russian intervention in 2016, when you turned your fawning attention to DeSantis and his wife...

We simply can't believe a word you write, Petey, because it's so often been outright lies and disinformation.

So, I don't care what you now claim.
Good lord, Tulsi...stop the trolling, this is a very serious topic thread.

Thank you to those who are participating seriously.

[a fan]

Elect a guy like Desantis, who has brains and leadership, and I think the world will see a much better outcome.

Translation: as usual, neither I nor my party has any clue as to what to do here. But if you put a guy with a R by his name in charge, no matter what he does, I'll come on here and tell you all it's awesome.

Rinse. Repeat.

[Peter Brown]

Elect a guy like Desantis, who has brains and leadership, and I think the world will see a much better outcome.

Translation: as usual, neither I nor my party has any clue as to what to do here. But if you put a guy with a R by his name in charge, no matter what he does, I'll come on here and tell you all it's awesome.

Rinse. Repeat.

Wrong. I already addressed this, I’d take Cory Booker, Abigail Spanberger, or Tulsi Gabbard. Today.

Do you know their party?

[seacoaster]

Elect a guy like Desantis, who has brains and leadership, and I think the world will see a much better outcome.

Translation: as usual, neither I nor my party has any clue as to what to do here. But if you put a guy with a R by his name in charge, no matter what he does, I'll come on here and tell you all it's awesome.

Rinse. Repeat.

Exactly; boycott Dumb.

[a fan]

Wrong. I already addressed this, I’d take Cory Booker, Abigail Spanberger, or Tulsi Gabbard. Today.

Do you know their party?

Nope. I don't.

You still can't tell us what Biden is supposed to do here, my man. Is thinking hard?

[Peter Brown]

Everything seen through a partisan lens, now a fawning DeSantis lens. Just gross.

Thanks to those posting interesting, thoughtful articles from various serious sources. Salty, seacoaster, Geneva and others.

Are you accusing others of ‘seeing everything through a partisan lens? OMG.

Meanwhile my post is actually about leadership and brains. You wouldn’t think that, because you’re in fact seeing everything through a partisan lens.

I’d take Cory Booker in the office. I’d take Tulsi Gabbard. I’d take Abigail Spanberger. You know what these three people have in common, MD? I’ll let you guess. But the answer suggests only one of us here is looking at things through a partisan lens.

I don't care who you claim you'd "take", the election isn't until 2024. We have a President right now who you pee on every way you can. Obama pee above as well. And you started pretending you hadn't supported Trump tooth and nail, hadn't supported Russian intervention in 2016, when you turned your fawning attention to DeSantis and his wife...

We simply can't believe a word you write, Petey, because it's so often been outright lies and disinformation.

So, I don't care what you now claim.
Good lord, Tulsi...stop the trolling, this is a very serious topic thread.

Thank you to those who are participating seriously.

I ‘pee’ on Biden because his team has been an abject failure. Crime, inflation, global instability, social issues. You want folks to applaud that?

[MDlaxfan76]

Go to a thread on such topic.
Do your partisan performance there.

Not here.

[Peter Brown]

Wrong. I already addressed this, I’d take Cory Booker, Abigail Spanberger, or Tulsi Gabbard. Today.

Do you know their party?

Nope. I don't.

You still can't tell us what Biden is supposed to do here, my man. Is thinking hard?

Yes I can.

First, I’d get on a plane this minute to Moscow and sit down with Putin. I’d find out what could be done to achieve peace today, probably even giving more than most folks would be happy with. But I’d get peace, laying my groundwork for a longer-term victory.

Then I’d launch a very secret, very long-term plan to stabilize and defend Ukraine, collaborating with the Turks and Georgians to achieve stability. You wouldn’t see my team in any meeting, but I’d be damn sure to make the changes necessary. I’d give the necessary assistance to the Turks and Georgians and Ukrainians.

I’d also spend inordinate money finding allies in the Russian administration.

I’d wage a very effective war for the minds and hearts of ordinary Russian citizens; I’d grab every top tech and industrial leader in the US and Europe, huddle in DC, and find ways to help ordinary citizens there,