6ftstick wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:54 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:26 pm
old salt wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:17 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:11 pm
I think Nordstream is officially dead, won't be resurrected absent a total withdrawal by Putin, and I'm not holding my breath on that one. Remember, Germany never had a choice once we made clear that we'd sanction any bank that did business with anyone moving that gas through that pipeline. Glad to see them move fast, but they really had no choice. Might well have been coordinated.
You may be over-estimating the fortitude of Germany (& Wall Street) to absorb the consequences.
When the shooting stops, the Germans will be anxious to negotiate a settlement.
The question is the US' resolve, not the Germans.
You're correct, IMO, to wonder about our resolve.
REUTERS—ICIS analysis data for German supply showed that in Dec. 2021 Russian pipeline gas accounted for 32%
Not refuted yet
What will Germanys resolve be when they're cold and in the dark in a couple weeks.
I guess that, like most topics, you haven't really been paying attention, whether to news beyond your right wing feed or even to the discussions on here.
Russia might well cut off all gas to Germany, but that'll hurt them much worse than Germany or Germans as other sources will be rushed to Germany. But it will hurt.
But the point isn't that there's going to be a big crunch on energy costs, it's that this is entirely controlled by the US, not Germany as they really have no choice, given the sanctions that have been discussed. No business or bank will be able to do business with any entities proscribed by the US. Period.
We did this in tightening the screws on banks doing business with Iran and choked them hard as a result, which was the predicate to getting them to the table for the deal. Banks initially had trouble knowing what was actually happening, but they built up the mechanisms to track everything...beats billion dollar fines else cut off entirely from markets. Those mechanisms now exist and the US has been clear that they're willing to use the same process to enforce compliance.
So, if we want to constrict all oil and gas sales out of Russia, that's in our control. It'll be a later step, we haven't gone there yet.
But we're rolling these out on two Russian banks, and the Russian access to raising capital on the international markets. They're going to shortly roll out such on various Russian elites. It's important to realize that the Russian elites work very hard to get most of their riches outside of Russia's direct reach, just in case their positions deteriorate there...they need that access.
But that's a minimum step.
but your and my opinion don't matter a hill of beans. 
...ancient China ? Putin's just going back to 1991 when the USSR came apart.
