All things Chinese CoronaVirus

The odds are excellent that you will leave this forum hating someone.

How many of your friends and family members have died of the Chinese Corona Virus?

0 people
44
64%
1 person.
10
14%
2 people.
3
4%
3 people.
5
7%
More.
7
10%
 
Total votes: 69

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MDlaxfan76
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

cradleandshoot wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 7:19 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 3:28 pm
old salt wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 3:08 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 2:47 pm Personally, I like Germany's ratio.
Population of 83 million, 6,623 deaths...so US is 4X pop, 10X deaths.
Of course, this is just round one of this battle, so #'s and ratio could change in future rounds, but right now they have done way, way better than us.

The Germans are the most analogous country in Europe to our own.
In general, they look pretty dismissively at France, worse at Spain, and really down their noses at Italy.

The UK made a tragic error of mirroring Trump's dismissiveness of the threat.

But hey, if we just focus on one piece of the US, New York State. 55k sq miles, pop. 19.45 million ; Germany 138k sq miles, pop 83 million...so, basically NYS is 1/4 the size of Germany, yet has almost 4X the deaths. Want to add in Connecticut and New Jersey?

Or, hey, we could look at our neighbors to the north. Canada is physically larger than the US, but only 37 million people (mostly concentrated in only part), so about 1/9th in pop. 3,387 deaths. So, the US is 9X more people, about 20X deaths.
No. The US is more comparable to Europe in it's entirety, rather than just Germany, In size, dispersal & diversity.

Look at how much of the US upon which you dismissively look down your nose.
:lol: :roll:
Which part of the US do I look down dismissively at?
Really?
Any part that supports Trump. :D
:) of course, I did understand the likely point, that hard core Trumpists to my mind are out to lunch. When you layer in those who reject science and expertise, those who believe anyone not professing to believe exactly as they believe in a higher power are going to Hell and the sooner the better..., the anti-vaccine nut jobs, the birthers, the racists, the nativists...well, yeah, I start struggling not to "look down dismissively at" some folks. That's a pretty hard core group, certainly not the majority in any region, IMO.

But an area of the country?
Nope. You can find diversity of folks in every region and I consider them all 'fellow Americans'.

But sure, you can find more of those hard core types in some regions than in others. They're attracted to one another, just as those who look more favorably on diversity of opinion and demographics, those who value science and expertise, are more likely to congregate together.

BTW, that tends to be true within regions as well. Whether urban or small town with a higher education institution as its anchor, folks will congregate who value certain 'diversity' whereas others may be uncomfortable or repelled by those same values.

But in general, America is far more alike in its diversity, it's non-homogeneity, than not.
And our population has been very mobile, one region to another, for generations.

The Europeans have far more distinct traditional cultural separation.
Which is also why they are struggling so much with immigration pressures.

When I was referring to the US being most like the Germans, it was to the modern Germany, which relative to its neighbors emphasizes hard work and efficiency, with the most productive economy in Europe, while embracing immigrants more openly than its neighbors. Which isn't to say they don't have many of our issues as well. We'd expect comparable medical excellence in Germany as we would here.
Last edited by MDlaxfan76 on Sat May 02, 2020 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

I believe we will be modulating between various stages of mitigation efforts. The closer we are to doing nothing, the faster we will be back into heavy handed mitigation efforts. Logic says, get the case load down to a reasonable number ( NOT 0) and the sooner we have an at home therapeutic, the sooner we can get back to something on the spectrum closer to normal.

My ideas is that for people with multiple pre-existing underlying conditions perhaps some sort of long term disability plan until a vaccine arrives would be a solution. For the elderly, they will have to be more mindful of mitigation efforts. This will be cheaper in the long run. My guess is that it will take 4-6 weeks before enough people are infectious enough for the virus to show itself in large numbers.
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

6ftstick wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 10:57 am
DocBarrister wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 6:22 pm
Kismet wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 5:45 pm DOPUS administration just blocked Dr. Anthony Fauci from appearing before a House Committee.

New Pres Secretary declares in first press briefing in over a year that she will never lie to any of you. Her next sentence regarding the Muller report was a lie.

Then there's this -

"In all, at least 25 former officials who once worked for the Trump administration, campaign or transition team are now registered as lobbyists for clients with novel coronavirus needs, according to The Washington Post’s analysis of federal lobbying records and employment data compiled by ProPublica."
It was just a matter of time before Trump and his goons muzzled Dr. Fauci.

Dr. Fauci should testify anyway. If he chooses to abide by the Trump administration’s muzzling, then Dr. Fauci should resign.

I have not been a big fan of Dr. Fauci’s performance in this pandemic. This is a chance to prove what he cares about most ... his job and a seat at Trump’s trough ... or telling the truth to the American people.

DocBarrister :?
Just a matter of time....Jeezus

Its been three months and Faucis been on TV for hours. EVERYDAY. Press briefings, conferences, interviews, Other Q+A's. Free to say whatever hw wants
Under oath, questioned by Congress in an oversight capacity?

Actually, we don't hear from with the frequency you describe, and the 'in-depth' interviews that he sometimes does often reveal far more about what's happening and what to expect than what he says from the podium with Trump watching on.

Fauci has to walk a delicate balance between getting the American public to understand their role in this crisis and not pissing off Trump so much in the process that he gets shut down.

The question I have, as someone who thinks Trump is and idiot and a nut job, fully capable of pulling the plug on those who actually tell the truth, is whether it's really a good idea to force Fauci to be on the spot this way?

Can Congress restrain themselves from pushing Fauci to say out loud that Trump is a moron? I'm not confident about that.
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old salt
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by old salt »

This doc has the answer. This is the way we're heading -- our govt leaders just aren't ready to sell it yet.

They haven't figured out how to protect the vulnerable yet, & every level of govt wants the others to manage & fund it.


...& before the politically partisan nay sayers dismiss him because he appeared on FNC, I first saw him today on CNN :
https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/05/0 ... ogress.cnn

...& his article in The Hill has been widely read & cited.
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

old salt wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:06 pm This doc has the answer. This is the way we're heading -- our govt leaders just aren't ready to sell it yet.

They haven't figured out how to protect the vulnerable yet, & every level of govt wants the others to manage & fund it.


...& before the politically partisan nay sayers dismiss him because he appeared on FNC, I first saw him today on CNN :
https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/05/0 ... ogress.cnn

...& his article in The Hill has been widely read & cited.
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation

What do the virologist, epidemiologists, public health and other infectious disease expert have to say? Is his field MRI/CAT SCANS and X-Rays?

58k dead in one month with social distancing.

https://www.hoover.org/research/coronav ... erreaction

“In my column last week, I predicted that the world would eventually see about 50,000 deaths from the novel coronavirus, and the United States about 500.”
Last edited by Typical Lax Dad on Sat May 02, 2020 2:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

old salt wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:06 pm This doc has the answer. This is the way we're heading -- our govt leaders just aren't ready to sell it yet.

They haven't figured out how to protect the vulnerable yet, & every level of govt wants the others to manage & fund it.


...& before the politically partisan nay sayers dismiss him because he appeared on FNC, I first saw him today on CNN :
https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/05/0 ... ogress.cnn

...& his article in The Hill has been widely read & cited.
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation
I think you are correct that we haven't figured out how to actually do it and haven't put in place the measures to do it successfully.

I haven't yet listened to the interviews, but read the article. And then googled the good doc. He's a neuroradiologist not a pandemic or infectious disease specialist. Does he have a particular political perspective or lens? Ohhh, yes, he does.

Doesn't make him wrong, but grain of salt please.

His 'data' claims are far less persuasive than he claims them to be, and are certainly not accepted as gospel. Yet.
Again, doesn't make him wrong, but is he exaggerating for effect?
Yeah, possible.

And his straw man of total lockdown is not what any of the Governors or Fauci et al are saying is the path forward. So, why the straw man?

Yup, to get attention.

But the fundamental message certainly seems to have merit insofar as it overlaps what folks like Fauci (actual experts in this area) have been saying about how the country can ultimately 'open up' more.

Yes, older people are at much higher risk, so too those younger with co-morbidities. Where's the line? 70? Nope. 60? maybe, but how about all these 45-60 year olds dying, how about asymptomatic heart attacks?

40? maybe. Unless diabetes, heart disease, obesity or other risk factors...yet it's also killing people with no such...viral load? PPE critical?

sure, under 18 appear to be almost zero risk...but do they live with parents, grandparents?

I'd like to see some fully detailed recommendations dealing with all the various elements of this for each individual and family situation. What would the acceptable practices be that slowed spread but allowed people to live at least productively, if not 'normal;, while therapies and vaccine catch up?
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:32 pm
old salt wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:06 pm This doc has the answer. This is the way we're heading -- our govt leaders just aren't ready to sell it yet.

They haven't figured out how to protect the vulnerable yet, & every level of govt wants the others to manage & fund it.


...& before the politically partisan nay sayers dismiss him because he appeared on FNC, I first saw him today on CNN :
https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/05/0 ... ogress.cnn

...& his article in The Hill has been widely read & cited.
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation
I think you are correct that we haven't figured out how to actually do it and haven't put in place the measures to do it successfully.

I haven't yet listened to the interviews, but read the article. And then googled the good doc. He's a neuroradiologist not a pandemic or infectious disease specialist. Does he have a particular political perspective or lens? Ohhh, yes, he does.

Doesn't make him wrong, but grain of salt please.

His 'data' claims are far less persuasive than he claims them to be, and are certainly not accepted as gospel. Yet.
Again, doesn't make him wrong, but is he exaggerating for effect?
Yeah, possible.

And his straw man of total lockdown is not what any of the Governors or Fauci et al are saying is the path forward. So, why the straw man?

Yup, to get attention.

But the fundamental message certainly seems to have merit insofar as it overlaps what folks like Fauci (actual experts in this area) have been saying about how the country can ultimately 'open up' more.

Yes, older people are at much higher risk, so too those younger with co-morbidities. Where's the line? 70? Nope. 60? maybe, but how about all these 45-60 year olds dying, how about asymptomatic heart attacks?

40? maybe. Unless diabetes, heart disease, obesity or other risk factors...yet it's also killing people with no such...viral load? PPE critical?

sure, under 18 appear to be almost zero risk...but do they live with parents, grandparents?

I'd like to see some fully detailed recommendations dealing with all the various elements of this for each individual and family situation. What would the acceptable practices be that slowed spread but allowed people to live at least productively, if not 'normal;, while therapies and vaccine catch up?
Yes. We are not the only country going through it and our infectious disease, epidemiologists, public health and virologist have no more information than the rest of the global science community. A consensus of known best practices is how it will be done. That’s pretty much how science works.
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old salt
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by old salt »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:27 pm
old salt wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:06 pm This doc has the answer. This is the way we're heading -- our govt leaders just aren't ready to sell it yet.

They haven't figured out how to protect the vulnerable yet, & every level of govt wants the others to manage & fund it.


...& before the politically partisan nay sayers dismiss him because he appeared on FNC, I first saw him today on CNN :
https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/05/0 ... ogress.cnn

...& his article in The Hill has been widely read & cited.
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation

What do the virologist, epidemiologists, public health and other infectious disease expert have to say? Is his field MRI/CAT SCANS and X-Rays?

58k dead in one month with social distancing.

https://www.hoover.org/research/coronav ... erreaction
Show us their links, so we can know.
What % of the 58k were in the at risk groups he listed who were not adequately isolated or protected ?
What % of those were outside the NYC/Detroit/Boston/Chicage/NOLA metro areas ?
What % of those were in hot spots not yet isolated, like meat packing plants & Albany Ga ?
When are the public health experts going to explain their plan, in detail, as clearly as Dr Atlas has.
I look forward to your links.
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

old salt wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:40 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:27 pm
old salt wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:06 pm This doc has the answer. This is the way we're heading -- our govt leaders just aren't ready to sell it yet.

They haven't figured out how to protect the vulnerable yet, & every level of govt wants the others to manage & fund it.


...& before the politically partisan nay sayers dismiss him because he appeared on FNC, I first saw him today on CNN :
https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/05/0 ... ogress.cnn

...& his article in The Hill has been widely read & cited.
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation

What do the virologist, epidemiologists, public health and other infectious disease expert have to say? Is his field MRI/CAT SCANS and X-Rays?

58k dead in one month with social distancing.

https://www.hoover.org/research/coronav ... erreaction
Show us their links, so we can know.
What % of the 58k were in the at risk groups he listed who were not adequately isolated or protected ?
What % of those were outside the NYC/Detroit/Boston/Chicage/NOLA metro areas ?
What % of those were in hot spots not yet isolated, like meat packing plants & Albany Ga ?
When are the public health experts going to explain their plan, in detail, as clearly as Dr Atlas has.
I look forward to your links.
From your friends at the Hoover Institute:

“In my column last week, I predicted that the world would eventually see about 50,000 deaths from the novel coronavirus, and the United States about 500.”

I thought I asked what do experts in the field think. Not a guy that reads my MRI? Did I say he was “wrong”. His opinion is just that...an opinion. I would rather hear the opinion of experts in the field. You want to hear about military strategy from a captain of a fishing boat?

PS, the dead is just one aspect. You have to also understand who is sucking up capacity in the hospitals and would be dead but not for hospitalization. Hopefully a therapeutic will arrive. It will help us avoid a relapse into the mass casualty issues that we are just getting over.
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by a fan »

old salt wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:40 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:27 pm
old salt wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:06 pm This doc has the answer. This is the way we're heading -- our govt leaders just aren't ready to sell it yet.

They haven't figured out how to protect the vulnerable yet, & every level of govt wants the others to manage & fund it.


...& before the politically partisan nay sayers dismiss him because he appeared on FNC, I first saw him today on CNN :
https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/05/0 ... ogress.cnn

...& his article in The Hill has been widely read & cited.
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation

What do the virologist, epidemiologists, public health and other infectious disease expert have to say? Is his field MRI/CAT SCANS and X-Rays?

58k dead in one month with social distancing.

https://www.hoover.org/research/coronav ... erreaction
Show us their links, so we can know.
What % of the 58k were in the at risk groups he listed who were not adequately isolated or protected ?
What % of those were outside the NYC/Detroit/Boston/Chicage/NOLA metro areas ?
What % of those were in hot spots not yet isolated, like meat packing plants & Albany Ga ?
When are the public health experts going to explain their plan, in detail, as clearly as Dr Atlas has.
I look forward to your links.
Dr. Atlas didn't outline a plan. But I agree with his general point.

The problem, which he didn't talk about, and I'm sure he would tell us this if he was asked..... is that we don't have the testing capability yet to follow what he is suggesting we do.
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

a fan wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 3:03 pm
old salt wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:40 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:27 pm
old salt wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:06 pm This doc has the answer. This is the way we're heading -- our govt leaders just aren't ready to sell it yet.

They haven't figured out how to protect the vulnerable yet, & every level of govt wants the others to manage & fund it.


...& before the politically partisan nay sayers dismiss him because he appeared on FNC, I first saw him today on CNN :
https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/05/0 ... ogress.cnn

...& his article in The Hill has been widely read & cited.
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation

What do the virologist, epidemiologists, public health and other infectious disease expert have to say? Is his field MRI/CAT SCANS and X-Rays?

58k dead in one month with social distancing.

https://www.hoover.org/research/coronav ... erreaction
Show us their links, so we can know.
What % of the 58k were in the at risk groups he listed who were not adequately isolated or protected ?
What % of those were outside the NYC/Detroit/Boston/Chicage/NOLA metro areas ?
What % of those were in hot spots not yet isolated, like meat packing plants & Albany Ga ?
When are the public health experts going to explain their plan, in detail, as clearly as Dr Atlas has.
I look forward to your links.
Dr. Atlas didn't outline a plan. But I agree with his general point.

The problem, which he didn't talk about, and I'm sure he would tell us this if he was asked..... is that we don't have the testing capability yet to follow what he is suggesting we do.
Testing and a therapeutic will help get us there. It will get better, it’s just a matter of time. We were two months behind the world and area to come out early with no real testing program. Nobles and ruling class may get its wish.
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old salt
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by old salt »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:43 pm
old salt wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:40 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:27 pm
old salt wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:06 pm This doc has the answer. This is the way we're heading -- our govt leaders just aren't ready to sell it yet.

They haven't figured out how to protect the vulnerable yet, & every level of govt wants the others to manage & fund it.


...& before the politically partisan nay sayers dismiss him because he appeared on FNC, I first saw him today on CNN :
https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/05/0 ... ogress.cnn

...& his article in The Hill has been widely read & cited.
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation

What do the virologist, epidemiologists, public health and other infectious disease expert have to say? Is his field MRI/CAT SCANS and X-Rays?

58k dead in one month with social distancing.

https://www.hoover.org/research/coronav ... erreaction
Show us their links, so we can know.
What % of the 58k were in the at risk groups he listed who were not adequately isolated or protected ?
What % of those were outside the NYC/Detroit/Boston/Chicage/NOLA metro areas ?
What % of those were in hot spots not yet isolated, like meat packing plants & Albany Ga ?
When are the public health experts going to explain their plan, in detail, as clearly as Dr Atlas has.
I look forward to your links.
From your friends at the Hoover Institute:

“In my column last week, I predicted that the world would eventually see about 50,000 deaths from the novel coronavirus, and the United States about 500.”

I thought I asked what do experts in the field think. Not a guy that reads my MRI? Did I say he was “wrong”. His opinion is just that...an opinion. I would rather hear the opinion of experts in the field. You want to hear about military strategy from a captain of a fishing boat?

PS, the dead is just one aspect. You have to also understand who is sucking up capacity in the hospitals and would be dead but not for hospitalization. Hopefully a therapeutic will arrive. It will help us avoid a relapse into the mass casualty issues that we are just getting over.
I agree with you that deaths & hospitalizations are the key metrics we should be tracking.
Dr Atlas maintains that we've started to flatten those curves.
Citing number of cases is a diversion because it's tied to the number of tests administered & to whom.

Our hospitals are not being overwhelmed, they're being underutilized (even in NYC now) to the point that their financial viability is threatened & staff are being laid off. Urgent non-covid care is being prevented, which will have downstream negative consequences.

We have to start doing something now, rather than waiting for silver bullet therapeutics & vaccines.
I say that as someone who has to self-isolate until there is a vaccine. I'm fortunate to be able to do so, most are not readily able to do so. We should now be targeting our resources to protect them & we need the healthy herd, roaming free & productive, to protect them (imho).

I sense that's the direction in which we're headed. Politically, our govt leaders aren't able to admit it yet.
I look forward to reading the links from the experts you deem to be suitably qualified, as they address our current situation, & the best way forward.
6ftstick
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by 6ftstick »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 1:41 pm
6ftstick wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 10:57 am
DocBarrister wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 6:22 pm
Kismet wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 5:45 pm DOPUS administration just blocked Dr. Anthony Fauci from appearing before a House Committee.

New Pres Secretary declares in first press briefing in over a year that she will never lie to any of you. Her next sentence regarding the Muller report was a lie.

Then there's this -

"In all, at least 25 former officials who once worked for the Trump administration, campaign or transition team are now registered as lobbyists for clients with novel coronavirus needs, according to The Washington Post’s analysis of federal lobbying records and employment data compiled by ProPublica."
It was just a matter of time before Trump and his goons muzzled Dr. Fauci.

Dr. Fauci should testify anyway. If he chooses to abide by the Trump administration’s muzzling, then Dr. Fauci should resign.

I have not been a big fan of Dr. Fauci’s performance in this pandemic. This is a chance to prove what he cares about most ... his job and a seat at Trump’s trough ... or telling the truth to the American people.

DocBarrister :?
Just a matter of time....Jeezus

Its been three months and Faucis been on TV for hours. EVERYDAY. Press briefings, conferences, interviews, Other Q+A's. Free to say whatever hw wants
Under oath, questioned by Congress in an oversight capacity?

Actually, we don't hear from with the frequency you describe, and the 'in-depth' interviews that he sometimes does often reveal far more about what's happening and what to expect than what he says from the podium with Trump watching on.

Fauci has to walk a delicate balance between getting the American public to understand their role in this crisis and not pissing off Trump so much in the process that he gets shut down.

The question I have, as someone who thinks Trump is and idiot and a nut job, fully capable of pulling the plug on those who actually tell the truth, is whether it's really a good idea to force Fauci to be on the spot this way?

Can Congress restrain themselves from pushing Fauci to say out loud that Trump is a moron? I'm not confident about that.
You TRUST congressional oversight to do anything except be political. Where you been for the last 4 years?
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

old salt wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 3:12 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:43 pm
old salt wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:40 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:27 pm
old salt wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:06 pm This doc has the answer. This is the way we're heading -- our govt leaders just aren't ready to sell it yet.

They haven't figured out how to protect the vulnerable yet, & every level of govt wants the others to manage & fund it.


...& before the politically partisan nay sayers dismiss him because he appeared on FNC, I first saw him today on CNN :
https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/05/0 ... ogress.cnn

...& his article in The Hill has been widely read & cited.
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation

What do the virologist, epidemiologists, public health and other infectious disease expert have to say? Is his field MRI/CAT SCANS and X-Rays?

58k dead in one month with social distancing.

https://www.hoover.org/research/coronav ... erreaction
Show us their links, so we can know.
What % of the 58k were in the at risk groups he listed who were not adequately isolated or protected ?
What % of those were outside the NYC/Detroit/Boston/Chicage/NOLA metro areas ?
What % of those were in hot spots not yet isolated, like meat packing plants & Albany Ga ?
When are the public health experts going to explain their plan, in detail, as clearly as Dr Atlas has.
I look forward to your links.
From your friends at the Hoover Institute:

“In my column last week, I predicted that the world would eventually see about 50,000 deaths from the novel coronavirus, and the United States about 500.”

I thought I asked what do experts in the field think. Not a guy that reads my MRI? Did I say he was “wrong”. His opinion is just that...an opinion. I would rather hear the opinion of experts in the field. You want to hear about military strategy from a captain of a fishing boat?

PS, the dead is just one aspect. You have to also understand who is sucking up capacity in the hospitals and would be dead but not for hospitalization. Hopefully a therapeutic will arrive. It will help us avoid a relapse into the mass casualty issues that we are just getting over.
I agree with you that deaths & hospitalizations are the key metrics we should be tracking.
Dr Atlas maintains that we've started to flatten those curves.
Citing number of cases is a diversion because it's tied to the number of tests administered & to whom.

Our hospitals are not being overwhelmed, they're being underutilized (even in NYC now) to the point that their financial viability is threatened & staff are being laid off. Urgent non-covid care is being prevented, which will have downstream negative consequences.

We have to start doing something now, rather than waiting for silver bullet therapeutics & vaccines.
I say that as someone who has to self-isolate until there is a vaccine. I'm fortunate to be able to do so, most are not readily able to do so. We should now be targeting our resources to protect them & we need the healthy herd, roaming free & productive, to protect them (imho).

I sense that's the direction in which we're headed. Politically, our govt leaders aren't able to admit it yet.
I look forward to reading the links from the experts you deem to be suitably qualified, as they address our current situation, & the best way forward.
Anyway, we are moving forward. Had 4 conference calls this week with multinationals. We are moving forward. More this upcoming week. I don’t pay much attention to political entertainment TV.

Are not states re-engaging commerce?....those things I pointed out will allow us to move faster....I don’t expect us to sit around and do nothing.
“I wish you would!”
6ftstick
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by 6ftstick »

Take a look at this video

Gavin Newsome may have problem on his hands.

https://www.toddstarnes.com/coronavirus ... Qs-sz0dQec
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RedFromMI
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Re: All things COVID-19

Post by RedFromMI »

6ftstick wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 3:43 pm Take a look at this video

Gavin Newsome may have problem on his hands.

https://www.toddstarnes.com/coronavirus ... Qs-sz0dQec
More astroturfing from the 1%.
6ftstick
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Re: All things COVID-19

Post by 6ftstick »

RedFromMI wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 4:01 pm
6ftstick wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 3:43 pm Take a look at this video

Gavin Newsome may have problem on his hands.

https://www.toddstarnes.com/coronavirus ... Qs-sz0dQec
More astroturfing from the 1%.
Looks more like revolt from thousands of his constituency
calourie
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by calourie »

old salt wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 2:06 pm This doc has the answer. This is the way we're heading -- our govt leaders just aren't ready to sell it yet.

They haven't figured out how to protect the vulnerable yet, & every level of govt wants the others to manage & fund it.


...& before the politically partisan nay sayers dismiss him because he appeared on FNC, I first saw him today on CNN :
https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/05/0 ... ogress.cnn

...& his article in The Hill has been widely read & cited.
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation
https://www.c-span.org/video/?470769-1/ ... lth-policy
Hello OS. Hope you are doing well. Here is a video from March 30, which explains Dr. Atlas' herd immunity view on how to deal with Covid 19 which he has held since the appearance of the virus. Dr. Atlas appears at about the 35 minute mark. Lots to debate regarding his theories, a predominant issue for me being that the requirement of effective isolation of the truly vulnerable probably won't happen in that it implies a need to do so for 15,000,000+ here in the US when you consider the number of 50 and older, obese, immune deficient prospects et cetera. It is my view that the current trend that many states are taking in opening is effectively a choice to opt for the herd immunity route even without effective isolation of the vulnerable, and I think the results over the next 6 weeks or so up will fairly quickly point out the efficacy or not of Dr. Atlas' contentions. My guess is, as a country, we will slog along with a somewhat declining though still very disturbing number of Covid deaths, and the issue will get reconsidered if/when when that number passes the 100,000 threshold
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RedFromMI
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Re: All things COVID-19

Post by RedFromMI »

6ftstick wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 4:04 pm
RedFromMI wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 4:01 pm
6ftstick wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 3:43 pm Take a look at this video

Gavin Newsome may have problem on his hands.

https://www.toddstarnes.com/coronavirus ... Qs-sz0dQec
More astroturfing from the 1%.
Looks more like revolt from thousands of his constituency
Maybe a thousand, maybe several hundred (actual estimated differ). But it was organized by an astroturf organization funded by someone wealthy (as admitted by the organizer - who seems to be affiliated with a "wellness" center that had to have its hand slapped last year for some shady stuff they were marketing).

And almost all these protests are astroturf organized. And given the populations of the states where they are happening, they really are kind of small. Get a certain amount of press, then get forgotten about (except for Trump who uses it as Twitter fodder).
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RedFromMI
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Re: All things COVID-19

Post by RedFromMI »

calourie wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 4:06 pm (omitted)

Here is a video from March 30, which explains Dr. Atlas' herd immunity view on how to deal with Covid 19 which he has held since the appearance of the virus. Dr. Atlas appears at about the 35 minute mark. Lots to debate regarding his theories, a predominant issue for me being that the requirement of effective isolation of the truly vulnerable probably won't happen in that it implies a need to do so for 15,000,000+ here in the US when you consider the number of 50 and older, obese, immune deficient prospects et cetera. It is my view that the current trend that many states are taking in opening is effectively a choice to opt for the herd immunity route even without effective isolation of the vulnerable, and I think the results over the next 6 weeks or so up will fairly quickly point out the efficacy or not of Dr. Atlas' contentions. My guess is, as a country, we will slog along with a somewhat declining though still very disturbing number of Covid deaths, and the issue will get reconsidered if/when when that number passes the 100,000 threshold
You need a minimum of 60% infection to get to herd immunity, or even more. Not going to happen soon.

https://covid19-projections.com/ says the most likely date for 100,000 deaths is May 25. Real death total is already around that number when you figure in the excess deaths.

Same site says likely number of infected people in the US as of August 4, 2020 is around 18 million. Under 6%. No herd immunity or even close to it.

Summary numbers for USA:

Current Projection for US (Updated Daily - Last Updated: May 2):

Current Total: 65,059 deaths | Projected Total: 168,445 deaths by Aug 4, 2020 (Range: 98-289k)
Currently Infected: 0.6% | Total Infected: 2.9%

Oh - deaths are not declining in the US:
Screenshot_2020-05-02 United States Coronavirus 1,142,688 Cases and 66,620 Deaths - Worldometer.png
Screenshot_2020-05-02 United States Coronavirus 1,142,688 Cases and 66,620 Deaths - Worldometer.png (23.87 KiB) Viewed 1485 times
Last edited by RedFromMI on Sat May 02, 2020 4:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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