All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[wgdsr]

The 24% number is broken out for NYC. Not sure of the error bars, as I don't have the underlying data. Data was taken outside of groceries/big box stores, so there could be a selection error as well.

Even the 0.4% numbers are quite a bit higher than the flu - and given the side effects/damage this does longer term (heart, liver, kidneys, and of course lungs along with affecting clotting) a much more dangerous disease.

yeah, i meant nyc, not ny. if they were surveying 3,000 people and wanted to hit all all areas, counties in new york state, they'd seemingly have to get quite a few people from erie area, syracuse, north country, westchester, you name it... even if the population of nyc is close to half the state. what i was trying to say is it might just be like 500 people from nyc (or less) in order to have statistically signif numbers elsewhere. so we could really just be looking at small sample size everywhere, and dubious in how/who they took samples from.
you can talk about cross sections, but to me the only way you can get semi-accurate numbers of a locale are to test (almost) entire communities. or just a lot of people. for a big city, that's much more difficult of course.

[MDlaxfan76]

Personally, I like Germany's ratio.
Population of 83 million, 6,623 deaths...so US is 4X pop, 10X deaths.
Of course, this is just round one of this battle, so #'s and ratio could change in future rounds, but right now they have done way, way better than us.

The Germans are the most analogous country in Europe to our own.
In general, they look pretty dismissively at France, worse at Spain, and really down their noses at Italy.

The UK made a tragic error of mirroring Trump's dismissiveness of the threat.

But hey, if we just focus on one piece of the US, New York State. 55k sq miles, pop. 19.45 million ; Germany 138k sq miles, pop 83 million...so, basically NYS is 1/4 the size of Germany, yet has almost 4X the deaths. Want to add in Connecticut and New Jersey?

Or, hey, we could look at our neighbors to the north. Canada is physically larger than the US, but only 37 million people (mostly concentrated in only part), so about 1/9th in pop. 3,387 deaths. So, the US is 9X more people, about 20X deaths.

No. The US is more comparable to Europe in it's entirety, rather than just Germany, In size, dispersal & diversity.

Look at how much of the US upon which you dismissively look down your nose.

Which part of the US do I look down dismissively at?
Really?

[CU77]

Excess deaths over previous-five-year average is best way to count, IMO.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... total.html

This also includes secondary deaths of, e.g., people who couldn't get adequate care for some non-covid condition because their hospital was slammed. But that's also a toll of the virus. And any death rate will depend on the standard of care that patients receive.

[Kismet]

DOPUS administration just blocked Dr. Anthony Fauci from appearing before a House Committee.

New Pres Secretary declares in first press briefing in over a year that she will never lie to any of you. Her next sentence regarding the Muller report was a lie.

Then there's this -

"In all, at least 25 former officials who once worked for the Trump administration, campaign or transition team are now registered as lobbyists for clients with novel coronavirus needs, according to The Washington Post’s analysis of federal lobbying records and employment data compiled by ProPublica."

[ardilla secreta]

Personally, I like Germany's ratio.
Population of 83 million, 6,623 deaths...so US is 4X pop, 10X deaths.
Of course, this is just round one of this battle, so #'s and ratio could change in future rounds, but right now they have done way, way better than us.

The Germans are the most analogous country in Europe to our own.
In general, they look pretty dismissively at France, worse at Spain, and really down their noses at Italy.

The UK made a tragic error of mirroring Trump's dismissiveness of the threat.

But hey, if we just focus on one piece of the US, New York State. 55k sq miles, pop. 19.45 million ; Germany 138k sq miles, pop 83 million...so, basically NYS is 1/4 the size of Germany, yet has almost 4X the deaths. Want to add in Connecticut and New Jersey?

Or, hey, we could look at our neighbors to the north. Canada is physically larger than the US, but only 37 million people (mostly concentrated in only part), so about 1/9th in pop. 3,387 deaths. So, the US is 9X more people, about 20X deaths.

No. The US is more comparable to Europe in it's entirety, rather than just Germany, In size, dispersal & diversity.

Look at how much of the US upon which you dismissively look down your nose.

Which part of the US do I look down dismissively at?
Really?

Poughkeepsie. It’s quite obvious.

[DocBarrister]

DOPUS administration just blocked Dr. Anthony Fauci from appearing before a House Committee.

New Pres Secretary declares in first press briefing in over a year that she will never lie to any of you. Her next sentence regarding the Muller report was a lie.

Then there's this -

"In all, at least 25 former officials who once worked for the Trump administration, campaign or transition team are now registered as lobbyists for clients with novel coronavirus needs, according to The Washington Post’s analysis of federal lobbying records and employment data compiled by ProPublica."

It was just a matter of time before Trump and his goons muzzled Dr. Fauci.

Dr. Fauci should testify anyway. If he chooses to abide by the Trump administration’s muzzling, then Dr. Fauci should resign.

I have not been a big fan of Dr. Fauci’s performance in this pandemic. This is a chance to prove what he cares about most ... his job and a seat at Trump’s trough ... or telling the truth to the American people.

DocBarrister

[MDlaxfan76]

Personally, I like Germany's ratio.
Population of 83 million, 6,623 deaths...so US is 4X pop, 10X deaths.
Of course, this is just round one of this battle, so #'s and ratio could change in future rounds, but right now they have done way, way better than us.

The Germans are the most analogous country in Europe to our own.
In general, they look pretty dismissively at France, worse at Spain, and really down their noses at Italy.

The UK made a tragic error of mirroring Trump's dismissiveness of the threat.

But hey, if we just focus on one piece of the US, New York State. 55k sq miles, pop. 19.45 million ; Germany 138k sq miles, pop 83 million...so, basically NYS is 1/4 the size of Germany, yet has almost 4X the deaths. Want to add in Connecticut and New Jersey?

Or, hey, we could look at our neighbors to the north. Canada is physically larger than the US, but only 37 million people (mostly concentrated in only part), so about 1/9th in pop. 3,387 deaths. So, the US is 9X more people, about 20X deaths.

No. The US is more comparable to Europe in it's entirety, rather than just Germany, In size, dispersal & diversity.

Look at how much of the US upon which you dismissively look down your nose.

Which part of the US do I look down dismissively at?
Really?

Poughkeepsie. It’s quite obvious.

[RedFromMI]

Good prediction site - probably better modeling that the optimistic IMHE version:

https://covid19-projections.com/

From the site:

US Deaths Likelihoods

Below, we present the most likely dates that the US will surpass certain deaths milestones, as well as the probabilities of the US surpassing those milestones by several different time periods. For example, we estimate a 74% chance that the US surpasses 100,000 deaths by June 1, with May 25 being the most likely date.

Last updated: May 1, 2020
US deaths surpass: Most likely date:
70,000 May 5, 2020
80,000 May 10, 2020
90,000 May 17, 2020
100,000 May 25, 2020

August 4 - prediction of over 170K deaths for USA.

[Cooter]

Time to start protesting the lockdown!
If you don't start protesting now your governor is going to stick it to you in June, then July, ...

[cradleandshoot]

Personally, I like Germany's ratio.
Population of 83 million, 6,623 deaths...so US is 4X pop, 10X deaths.
Of course, this is just round one of this battle, so #'s and ratio could change in future rounds, but right now they have done way, way better than us.

The Germans are the most analogous country in Europe to our own.
In general, they look pretty dismissively at France, worse at Spain, and really down their noses at Italy.

The UK made a tragic error of mirroring Trump's dismissiveness of the threat.

But hey, if we just focus on one piece of the US, New York State. 55k sq miles, pop. 19.45 million ; Germany 138k sq miles, pop 83 million...so, basically NYS is 1/4 the size of Germany, yet has almost 4X the deaths. Want to add in Connecticut and New Jersey?

Or, hey, we could look at our neighbors to the north. Canada is physically larger than the US, but only 37 million people (mostly concentrated in only part), so about 1/9th in pop. 3,387 deaths. So, the US is 9X more people, about 20X deaths.

No. The US is more comparable to Europe in it's entirety, rather than just Germany, In size, dispersal & diversity.

Look at how much of the US upon which you dismissively look down your nose.

Which part of the US do I look down dismissively at?
Really?

Any part that supports Trump.

[Brooklyn]

If black guys had shown up to protest police brutality they would be called "thugs" and "terrorists" with the police or national guard cracking down on them. As always, when it is the right wing that engages in this type of disruption, the police stand back and do nothing.

[njbill]

Why are these guys allowed to enter the state capital building with guns? That’s insanity. Where are the metal detectors?

[RedFromMI]

Why are these guys allowed to enter the state capital building with guns? That’s insanity. Where are the metal detectors?

Thank the Republican party of Michigan - they have made it legal. Never mind that it is insanity.

[6ftstick]

DOPUS administration just blocked Dr. Anthony Fauci from appearing before a House Committee.

New Pres Secretary declares in first press briefing in over a year that she will never lie to any of you. Her next sentence regarding the Muller report was a lie.

Then there's this -

"In all, at least 25 former officials who once worked for the Trump administration, campaign or transition team are now registered as lobbyists for clients with novel coronavirus needs, according to The Washington Post’s analysis of federal lobbying records and employment data compiled by ProPublica."

It was just a matter of time before Trump and his goons muzzled Dr. Fauci.

Dr. Fauci should testify anyway. If he chooses to abide by the Trump administration’s muzzling, then Dr. Fauci should resign.

I have not been a big fan of Dr. Fauci’s performance in this pandemic. This is a chance to prove what he cares about most ... his job and a seat at Trump’s trough ... or telling the truth to the American people.

DocBarrister

Just a matter of time....Jeezus

Its been three months and Faucis been on TV for hours. EVERYDAY. Press briefings, conferences, interviews, Other Q+A's. Free to say whatever hw wants

[Brooklyn]

Guest editorial from Mrs Betty Bowers (America's greatest Christian):

[RedFromMI]

The Post's View
Opinion

The path to reopening is clear. Our national strategy is not.

May 2, 2020 at 7:30 a.m. EDT

MAY DAY brought expiration of the federal social distancing guidance, and as more than half the states began to lift their restrictions, the United States plunged forward in the pandemic without a national strategy. Instead, we have an uneven patchwork of local decisions and a population divided, fatigued, wary and still highly susceptible to the novel coronavirus while suffering massive economic losses. This is a moment to remember what we know, what works and the right way forward.

What works is social distancing to break the chains of transmission of a virus that leaps from person to person. We know it works because the early, explosive growth of new infections has slowed. But new infections and deaths are not yet on a downward slope. Every day, 2,000 lives are being lost. It is too soon to return willy-nilly to crowded places or to drop vigilance about masks, hand-washing and discretionary travel.

President Trump, who should be guiding a national response to the pandemic, has instead abdicated responsibility, shifting it to governors and local leaders. This will be remembered as a dark hour of the presidency during which the call for an inspiring leader with a coherent strategy went unanswered. Instead, the public was told by Mr. Trump not to expect help: “You know, we’re not a shipping clerk.” Just as irresponsibly, his son-in-law and adviser, Jared Kushner, is raising expectations that the pandemic will vanish like spring rains. He announced breezily that, “by June, a lot of the country should be back to normal. And the hope is that by July the country is really rocking again.” Such ungrounded happy talk will lead only to more discouragement and disillusionment later.

The economic distress is genuine, but it requires a calibrated reopening so as not to risk flare-ups that would be only more costly later. Absent a vaccine or therapy, the path to this reopening is clear: a process of testing, contact tracing, isolating the sick and returning to work in ways that will not endanger the healthy. Unfortunately, the tools for managing the next phase are not yet fully in place. Diagnostic testing is still running behind the levels needed, and contact tracing is just getting off the ground.

The complex choreography of reopening now falls to governors and mayors. Already, they are headed in different directions, some holding to the same restrictions as in April, but many others loosening the reins now. They must tell a restive public — as Mr. Trump is loath to do — not to expect a sudden return to normal as we knew it before. Those who are taking the risk of relaxing restrictions now must be prepared to retreat if infection rates begin to spike again. The virus will relentlessly exploit any gaps. If some jurisdictions allow it to regain momentum, it could ignite a second wave of disease for others as well as for them.

The only sustainable way back to normal is for everyone to stick with social distancing, hold realistic expectations, and carefully manage the easing, step by step, tested and traced, until the day when an effective, safe vaccine arrives.

[wgdsr]

who wrote that and what is their background?

[RedFromMI]

who wrote that and what is their background?

Unsigned editorial - so some group of the editors. Should be pretty well informed from experts.

[wgdsr]

who wrote that and what is their background?

Unsigned editorial - so some group of the editors. Should be pretty well informed from experts.

ok. do they cite some of those experts throughout? could probably learn more if i knew that.

[RedFromMI]

who wrote that and what is their background?

Unsigned editorial - so some group of the editors. Should be pretty well informed from experts.

ok. do they cite some of those experts throughout? could probably learn more if i knew that.

No, but some of the editorial has links:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases(new infections and deaths)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... e_manual_2(2000 lives lost every day)

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/1 ... ies-137658(Trump and supplies to states)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... e_manual_4(Trump announcement)

https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily(diagnostic testing)

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... california(contact tracing)

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public- ... -5-deaths/(different state choices)