All things CoronaVirus

[MDlaxfan76]

"YET" is the operative word.
It's likely just a matter of time.
I'd be glad to be completely 100% wrong on this one, but I think the worst is yet to come in the US.

+1
I think even Trump could admit that now.

The question will be how bad, not whether it's going to be awful.

[MDlaxfan76]

The White House’s coronavirus coordinator on Monday warned that the pandemic could kill as many as 200,000 Americans in even a best-case scenario as state officials intensified their stay-at-home directives — further erasing any hope that the country would have a speedy recovery from the global health crisis.

As deaths across the world from covid-19 climbed above 37,000 and those in the United States rose to more than 2,900, federal and state officials offered grim warnings that the country should expect things to get worse before they get better.

Deborah Birx, the coronavirus coordinator, told NBC News that the United States could record 200,000 deaths even “if we do things together well, almost perfectly.” President Trump, who a day earlier announced that officials would extend their guidance to Americans to practice social distancing through the end of April, said the move was necessary to prevent catastrophe: He now expects that virus-related deaths will not peak for an additional two weeks.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html

By comparison, South Korea, which identified its first case on the same day as the United States, has fewer than 10,000 cases and fewer than 200 deaths.

The difference?

South Korea responded immediately while Trump delayed action for 6 precious weeks while he indulged in his narcissistic delusions.

If you supported Trump, you share in the moral culpability for his catastrophic failure of leadership ... and possibly the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent American souls.

We warned you ... Trump was unfit to be president. Your failure to heed that warning has resulted in this unfolding tragedy.

DocBarrister

By comparison

South Korea is the size of Missouri and has 1/6th the population.

And still as of yesterday we've tested a million people they've tested only 395,000. Thats why we have more cases.

You must have gone to Trump University.

check your population #'s again...google is a wonderful tool.

You're out to lunch on this.

Population south Korea 51 million.

Population United states 327 million
https://worldpopulationreview.com/count ... opulation/

Missouri 6.4 million. Not that Missouri is relevant.

Want to compare NY, southern Conn, northern NJ...to SK?
That area is pretty darn comparable to SK.

And they're getting close on testing...now.
But look at the radical difference in when they did the tests from date of first detection.
That's why the outcome will be so much worse in NY, Conn, NJ.

Watch the death rate soar per capita in that area.

Or just use NY.
Smaller population than Korea...going to blow past them on deaths.
Yet we knew far ahead.

For what it’s worth, Missouri, with a population only 1/8 that of South Korea, had more new confirmed coronavirus cases yesterday (Missouri 128 vs. South Korea 125).

In addition, South Korea has had far fewer confirmed cases and deaths per capita than the U.S.

The timing of tests also matter. A test performed 6 weeks ago is far more valuable in preventing the pandemic than a test performed yesterday. South Korea performed extensive testing extremely early, and got the pandemic under control in about 20 days.

In contrast, Trump did little to nothing for six weeks while he was in complete denial and now we are looking at potentially tens of thousands of American deaths.

If you continue to support Trump, you are morally complicit in those unnecessary deaths.

DocBarrister

I'll put a little nuance to your last sentence Doc, though I agree with the rest as accurate.

Seems to me that we all can support the new directive from the White House and Trump's assent to it.

He's an idiot and a jerk, and yes his inaction will cause tens of thousands more deaths, but we should be glad of the change in direction. Absent that change, it would indeed be much worse.

[6ftstick]

The White House’s coronavirus coordinator on Monday warned that the pandemic could kill as many as 200,000 Americans in even a best-case scenario as state officials intensified their stay-at-home directives — further erasing any hope that the country would have a speedy recovery from the global health crisis.

As deaths across the world from covid-19 climbed above 37,000 and those in the United States rose to more than 2,900, federal and state officials offered grim warnings that the country should expect things to get worse before they get better.

Deborah Birx, the coronavirus coordinator, told NBC News that the United States could record 200,000 deaths even “if we do things together well, almost perfectly.” President Trump, who a day earlier announced that officials would extend their guidance to Americans to practice social distancing through the end of April, said the move was necessary to prevent catastrophe: He now expects that virus-related deaths will not peak for an additional two weeks.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html

By comparison, South Korea, which identified its first case on the same day as the United States, has fewer than 10,000 cases and fewer than 200 deaths.

The difference?

South Korea responded immediately while Trump delayed action for 6 precious weeks while he indulged in his narcissistic delusions.

If you supported Trump, you share in the moral culpability for his catastrophic failure of leadership ... and possibly the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent American souls.

We warned you ... Trump was unfit to be president. Your failure to heed that warning has resulted in this unfolding tragedy.

DocBarrister

By comparison

South Korea is the size of Missouri and has 1/6th the population.

And still as of yesterday we've tested a million people they've tested only 395,000. Thats why we have more cases.

You must have gone to Trump University.

check your population #'s again...google is a wonderful tool.

You're out to lunch on this.

Population south Korea 51 million.

Population United states 327 million
https://worldpopulationreview.com/count ... opulation/

Missouri 6.4 million. Not that Missouri is relevant.

Want to compare NY, southern Conn, northern NJ...to SK?
That area is pretty darn comparable to SK.

And they're getting close on testing...now.
But look at the radical difference in when they did the tests from date of first detection.
That's why the outcome will be so much worse in NY, Conn, NJ.

Watch the death rate soar per capita in that area.

Or just use NY.
Smaller population than Korea...going to blow past them on deaths.
Yet we knew far ahead.

For what it’s worth, Missouri, with a population only 1/8 that of South Korea, had more new confirmed coronavirus cases yesterday (Missouri 128 vs. South Korea 125).

In addition, South Korea has had far fewer confirmed cases and deaths per capita than the U.S.

The timing of tests also matter. A test performed 6 weeks ago is far more valuable in preventing the pandemic than a test performed yesterday. South Korea performed extensive testing extremely early, and got the pandemic under control in about 20 days.

In contrast, Trump did little to nothing for six weeks while he was in complete denial and now we are looking at potentially tens of thousands of American deaths.

If you continue to support Trump, you are morally complicit in those unnecessary deaths.

DocBarrister

The Chinese are responsbile for the death and economic distress seen around the globe. ALL OF IT. Chinese coronavirus originated in China and was allowed to spread globally during the largest human migration on the planet—the Chinese New Year. In comparison neither Trump or I have any moral complicity in any deaths.

[RedFromMI]

(much removed)

The Chinese are responsbile for the death and economic distress seen around the globe. ALL OF IT. Chinese coronavirus originated in China and was allowed to spread globally during the largest human migration on the planet—the Chinese New Year. In comparison neither Trump or I have any moral complicity in any deaths.

You ASSUME there was active intent in this statement, which is not a proven fact. Certainly the Chinese authorities have played fast and loose with suppressing information (I doubt their figures of infection/deaths is actually accurate) but the culpability of their government remains mostly speculation on your (and a lot of other people's) part. I am not saying there is not some responsibility here - I just don't think you can prove it.

And you personally don't necessarily have complicity in deaths, but I would certainly argue that Trump does on basis of his inaction/improper action up until just a few days ago. He has been listening to a combination of Fox News political hacks (like Hannity and Pirro among many) spewing nonsense about the nature of the threat (while the owning family is cancelling Rupert Murdoch's birthday party to protect him) and business execs who know nothing about pandemics. And has been actively overriding recommendations from the CDC and his own Coronovirus Task Force.

There have been many posts in this area about the missteps of the current administration - and still there is the lack of effort by Trump to use the "bully pulpit" to get ALL of America to start practicing the kinds of social distancing measures that might keep this pandemic from killing many hundreds of thousands of people. Doing more things earlier might have kept the scale of the disease to levels comparable to the flu - but instead we are looking at both a health and economic disaster...

[Peter Brown]

The Chinese are responsbile for the death and economic distress seen around the globe. ALL OF IT. Chinese coronavirus originated in China and was allowed to spread globally during the largest human migration on the planet—the Chinese New Year. In comparison neither Trump or I have any moral complicity in any deaths.

Clearly you are not familiar with the new rules: everything awful in the universe, asteroids and bad coffee included, is on Trump. Violate that central tenet, and the mob will come for you!

[Peter Brown]

New Yorkers not being so pleasant.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/doctor-sa ... -patients/

[Matnum PI]

The Chinese are responsbile for the death and economic distress seen around the globe. ALL OF IT. Chinese coronavirus originated in China and was allowed to spread globally during the largest human migration on the planet—the Chinese New Year. In comparison neither Trump or I have any moral complicity in any deaths.

This would be a good example of the black and white, scapegoat mindset I spoke to earlier. Though clearly, factually untrue, for some, life needs to be simple. When, in reality, life is not simple.

[MDlaxfan76]

The Chinese are responsbile for the death and economic distress seen around the globe. ALL OF IT. Chinese coronavirus originated in China and was allowed to spread globally during the largest human migration on the planet—the Chinese New Year. In comparison neither Trump or I have any moral complicity in any deaths.

Clearly you are not familiar with the new rules: everything awful in the universe, asteroids and bad coffee included, is on Trump. Violate that central tenet, and the mob will come for you!

silly, but also ugly, trolling by both of you.

But fascinating window into the minds of true believers in Trumpism.

China shut down Wuhan and surrounding provinces BEFORE the Chinese New Year. No return home for New Year allowed.
https://www.inquirer.com/health/china-b ... 00123.html

That's a big part of why Shanghai with a 22 million had ~500 cases and just 4 deaths. They may get a surge now that they're back to work, but they choked this off hard.

[MDlaxfan76]

New Yorkers not being so pleasant.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/doctor-sa ... -patients/

coming to a town near you, PB.

[Cooter]

It is going to take a pretty long time at the current death rate of 500 a day, to reach 100,000-200,000 deaths.
Say like 200-400 days.
With the curve of new cases starting to flatten out - it could mean that this will be a somewhat constant rate.

I personally look at living this way for the next 6 months as rather unacceptable.

Many state governors have been reluctant to adopt measures against the spread of the disease. We just went on lock down in MD, after starting to go on shut down 2 weeks ago.

[6ftstick]

The Chinese are responsbile for the death and economic distress seen around the globe. ALL OF IT. Chinese coronavirus originated in China and was allowed to spread globally during the largest human migration on the planet—the Chinese New Year. In comparison neither Trump or I have any moral complicity in any deaths.

Though clearly, factually untrue

Prove it

[RedFromMI]

It is going to take a pretty long time at the current death rate of 500 a day, to reach 100,000-200,000 deaths.
Say like 200-400 days.
With the curve of new cases starting to flatten out - it could mean that this will be a somewhat constant rate.

I personally look at living this way for the next 6 months as rather unacceptable.

Many state governors have been reluctant to adopt measures against the spread of the disease. We just went on lock down in MD, after starting to go on shut down 2 weeks ago.

The problem is - we don't really know if there is actually a flattening due to measures to constrain the virus and its spread, or we are again banging up against testing capacity (which is FAR below the 5 million tests Pence promised a couple of weeks ago). And the "flattening" could just be noise on the data...

[MDlaxfan76]

The Chinese are responsbile for the death and economic distress seen around the globe. ALL OF IT. Chinese coronavirus originated in China and was allowed to spread globally during the largest human migration on the planet—the Chinese New Year. In comparison neither Trump or I have any moral complicity in any deaths.

Though clearly, factually untrue

Prove it

Sure, "clearly, factually untrue"

https://www.inquirer.com/health/china-b ... 00123.html

[MDlaxfan76]

It is going to take a pretty long time at the current death rate of 500 a day, to reach 100,000-200,000 deaths.
Say like 200-400 days.
With the curve of new cases starting to flatten out - it could mean that this will be a somewhat constant rate.

I personally look at living this way for the next 6 months as rather unacceptable.

Many state governors have been reluctant to adopt measures against the spread of the disease. We just went on lock down in MD, after starting to go on shut down 2 weeks ago.

The problem is - we don't really know if there is actually a flattening due to measures to constrain the virus and its spread, or we are again banging up against testing capacity (which is FAR below the 5 million tests Pence promised a couple of weeks ago). And the "flattening" could just be noise on the data...

Geez, does anyone actually think 500 is the peak per day?
1,000 per day?

[Matnum PI]

Though clearly, factually untrue

Prove it

A man with Coronavirus knows he has the virus and, none the less, goes food shopping and transmits the disease to others. He holds some responsibility for the spreading of the virus. That proves your ALL OF IT wrong. there are a seemingly infinite number of other examples. and, towards the top of this list would be the actions of the POTUS.

[jhu72]

The White House’s coronavirus coordinator on Monday warned that the pandemic could kill as many as 200,000 Americans in even a best-case scenario as state officials intensified their stay-at-home directives — further erasing any hope that the country would have a speedy recovery from the global health crisis.

As deaths across the world from covid-19 climbed above 37,000 and those in the United States rose to more than 2,900, federal and state officials offered grim warnings that the country should expect things to get worse before they get better.

Deborah Birx, the coronavirus coordinator, told NBC News that the United States could record 200,000 deaths even “if we do things together well, almost perfectly.” President Trump, who a day earlier announced that officials would extend their guidance to Americans to practice social distancing through the end of April, said the move was necessary to prevent catastrophe: He now expects that virus-related deaths will not peak for an additional two weeks.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html

By comparison, South Korea, which identified its first case on the same day as the United States, has fewer than 10,000 cases and fewer than 200 deaths.

The difference?

South Korea responded immediately while Trump delayed action for 6 precious weeks while he indulged in his narcissistic delusions.

If you supported Trump, you share in the moral culpability for his catastrophic failure of leadership ... and possibly the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent American souls.

We warned you ... Trump was unfit to be president. Your failure to heed that warning has resulted in this unfolding tragedy.

DocBarrister

By comparison

South Korea is the size of Missouri and has 1/6th the population.

And still as of yesterday we've tested a million people they've tested only 395,000. Thats why we have more cases.

You must have gone to Trump University.

check your population #'s again...google is a wonderful tool.

You're out to lunch on this.

Population south Korea 51 million.

Population United states 327 million
https://worldpopulationreview.com/count ... opulation/

Missouri 6.4 million. Not that Missouri is relevant.

Want to compare NY, southern Conn, northern NJ...to SK?
That area is pretty darn comparable to SK.

And they're getting close on testing...now.
But look at the radical difference in when they did the tests from date of first detection.
That's why the outcome will be so much worse in NY, Conn, NJ.

Watch the death rate soar per capita in that area.

Or just use NY.
Smaller population than Korea...going to blow past them on deaths.
Yet we knew far ahead.

I compared the WHOLE COUNTRY.

Explain what would be different right now as this virus peaks in two weeks.

First, there's no way in hell this virus peaks in 2 weeks in the US. -- YUP. No way the US as a whole peaks in 2 or 3 weeks.
No one with a shred of credibility believes that to be the case.
There are numerous hotspots around the country at the very beginning of their growth curves.

Second, while we should have had a running start and with all our sophiation, premier health care system, etc we should outperform other developed countries in outcome.

Yet, we're going to be worse per capita in any area where the virus gets on that growth track.

Failure of leadership.

Regardless of the Trumpnista delusion of we are testing better than anyone - 99% of this country is seeing no testing at all, until someone presents at the hospital, doctors office, etc. Days after they are carriers, spreading the disease. You can look at the state by state data and see this very clearly. I warned about this saying look at Louisiana a week before Louisiana started making the news. They are still undertesting / reporting actual number of cases by at least a factor of 5. The following states are undertesting / reporting the worst. The under testing is by a factor of 3-5.

1) Vermont
2) Louisiana (Mardi Gras was a real bad idea)
3) Oklahoma (Indian reservations are being overrun - deaths are almost totally on reservations)
4) Georgia
5) Michigan
6) Montana (Governor started complaining yesterday)
7) North Dakota (Indian reservation issue?)
8) Delaware
9) Oregon
10) Alaska

Only 2 of the least well tested states are "big states", Georgia and Michigan.
Every other state in the union is under testing by at least a factor of 2

[Matnum PI]

Geez, does anyone actually think 500 is the peak per day?
1,000 per day?

I most certainly do not. You can't look at Italy and Spain, countries that are a fraction of the US, and believe this. 500 could be a peak per day for a US city. But not for the US.

[jhu72]

It is going to take a pretty long time at the current death rate of 500 a day, to reach 100,000-200,000 deaths.
Say like 200-400 days.
With the curve of new cases starting to flatten out - it could mean that this will be a somewhat constant rate.

I personally look at living this way for the next 6 months as rather unacceptable.

Many state governors have been reluctant to adopt measures against the spread of the disease. We just went on lock down in MD, after starting to go on shut down 2 weeks ago.

The problem is - we don't really know if there is actually a flattening due to measures to constrain the virus and its spread, or we are again banging up against testing capacity (which is FAR below the 5 million tests Pence promised a couple of weeks ago). And the "flattening" could just be noise on the data...

Geez, does anyone actually think 500 is the peak per day?
1,000 per day?

Yes, the folks who believe the flu is worse.

[6ftstick]

The Chinese are responsbile for the death and economic distress seen around the globe. ALL OF IT. Chinese coronavirus originated in China and was allowed to spread globally during the largest human migration on the planet—the Chinese New Year. In comparison neither Trump or I have any moral complicity in any deaths.

Though clearly, factually untrue

Prove it

Sure, "clearly, factually untrue"

https://www.inquirer.com/health/china-b ... 00123.html

From your article

"A bigger outbreak is certain," said Guan Yi, a virologist who helped identify severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003. He estimated - "conservatively," he said - that this outbreak could be 10 times bigger than the SARS epidemic because that virus was transmitted by only a few "super spreaders" in a more defined part of the country.
"We have passed through the 'golden period' for prevention and control," he told Caixin magazine from self-imposed quarantine after visiting Wuhan. "What's more, we've got the holiday traffic rush and a dereliction of duty from certain officials."

A post from Wuhan Railway saying that 300,000 people traveled by train out of Wuhan on Wednesday, headed to every corner of the country, was also quickly deleted.

[ggait]

It is going to take a pretty long time at the current death rate of 500 a day, to reach 100,000-200,000 deaths.
Say like 200-400 days.
With the curve of new cases starting to flatten out - it could mean that this will be a somewhat constant rate.

Let's assume our experience turns out to be EXACTLY the same as Italy's.

Italy is a couple weeks ahead of us. Italy's deaths were doubling every 2-3 days (which is where we are right now) a couple weeks back. Now Italy is doubling every 8 days as their curve gets bent. Let's assume they have one more week at that rate. And then two weeks at half of that (which is where SK currently is).

Italy is now at 12k deaths. So 25k one week from now, and 50k three weeks from now. And then they are mostly done with the crisis.

Italy has 60 million population, U.S. 325 million. 50k deaths times 5.4 pop adjustment gets you to 270,000 U.S. deaths. Over the next 4-5 weeks.