WLAX Bracketology

[hmmm]

Devil's advocate here (pun kinda intended)

Why are we giving Fairfield a free pass here? Agree Navy should be in, but....

Does anyone here think Fairfield would beat Duke on a neutral field?

Fairfield has 2 pretty bad losses (HC and Niagra), much worse than Duke's worse loss (Clemson). In terms of wins, their best win is Drexel. A nice win, but doesn't compare to beating UVA (Duke) or beating Duke (Navy). Also the MAAC is nowhere close in quality to Patriot league.

It may not be academically, but outside of Loyola, it is significantly better in lacrosse. Siena, the 3rd team in the MAAC is 3-0 vs the Patriot. The MAAC as a whole was 6-4 vs the Patriot. They also had a winning record vs the Big East and A10 and were .500 vs the Ivy's. The Patriot is a 1 team conference with another often overvalued one in Navy and two average teams this year. The bottom six teams are below average routinely.

You haven't watched Fairfield(or Duke) if you don't think they would easily beat Duke on a neutral field.

Fairfield is good at lacrosse. Perennially at the top of the MAAC. Teams in the Patriot league that I believe could beat them include Loyola, Navy, Army and probably Holy Cross in a rematch. Loyola, Navy and even recently Holy Cross were discussed as potentially in the tournament.
Latest coaches poll has Navy #20, Colorado #21 and Fairfield #25.
The question on them was also in regard to the committees selection criteria. If they weight RPI evenly across the teams then Fairfield (16) and Navy (22) are in. If they weight SOS then Duke (12) and Colorado (27) are in. Navy (45) still has a better SOS than Fairfield (59). Head to head would exclude Duke over Navy after the Navy win. There is no formula that when applied evenly to all the teams yields the results that were presented.

I can easily justify Navy over Duke based on RPI and head to head.
I can easily justify Duke over Fairfield based on quality wins, quality loss and SOS
I can easily justify Navy over Fairfield based on quality wins, quality losses
I could justify Fairfield over Duke based on RPI alone.
I can't find anything to justify Fairfield over Navy other than a small difference in RPI.

Fairfield beat Drexel 12-5 and Drexel beat Navy?

[GratefulRed]

Fairfield is good at lacrosse.

My favorite bid justification so far this season.

[610Lax]

Devil's advocate here (pun kinda intended)

Why are we giving Fairfield a free pass here? Agree Navy should be in, but....

Does anyone here think Fairfield would beat Duke on a neutral field?

Fairfield has 2 pretty bad losses (HC and Niagra), much worse than Duke's worse loss (Clemson). In terms of wins, their best win is Drexel. A nice win, but doesn't compare to beating UVA (Duke) or beating Duke (Navy). Also the MAAC is nowhere close in quality to Patriot league.

It may not be academically, but outside of Loyola, it is significantly better in lacrosse. Siena, the 3rd team in the MAAC is 3-0 vs the Patriot. The MAAC as a whole was 6-4 vs the Patriot. They also had a winning record vs the Big East and A10 and were .500 vs the Ivy's. The Patriot is a 1 team conference with another often overvalued one in Navy and two average teams this year. The bottom six teams are below average routinely.

You haven't watched Fairfield(or Duke) if you don't think they would easily beat Duke on a neutral field.

Fairfield is good at lacrosse. Perennially at the top of the MAAC. Teams in the Patriot league that I believe could beat them include Loyola, Navy, Army and probably Holy Cross in a rematch. Loyola, Navy and even recently Holy Cross were discussed as potentially in the tournament.
Latest coaches poll has Navy #20, Colorado #21 and Fairfield #25.
The question on them was also in regard to the committees selection criteria. If they weight RPI evenly across the teams then Fairfield (16) and Navy (22) are in. If they weight SOS then Duke (12) and Colorado (27) are in. Navy (45) still has a better SOS than Fairfield (59). Head to head would exclude Duke over Navy after the Navy win. There is no formula that when applied evenly to all the teams yields the results that were presented.

I can easily justify Navy over Duke based on RPI and head to head.
I can easily justify Duke over Fairfield based on quality wins, quality loss and SOS
I can easily justify Navy over Fairfield based on quality wins, quality losses
I could justify Fairfield over Duke based on RPI alone.
I can't find anything to justify Fairfield over Navy other than a small difference in RPI.

While the NCAA SOS is based off the average RPI of your top 10 opponents, the RPI SOS component(which is 50% of your RPI #) reflects your whole schedule and in that metric Fairfield has a more difficult SOS than Navy and Duke.

As for easily justifying Navy over Fairfield in Quality Wins/Losses -- Only 3 of Navy's 15 wins are against teams with a winning record. Whereas 8 of Fairfields 16 wins are against winning record teams. Navy does not have a single win vs a team with an RPI better than 30 where Fairfield has 2 wins vs teams better than 30. Navy's best win is vs RPI 30 where Fairfields is vs RPI 20. Fairfields worst loss is vs RPI 30 where Navy's worst loss is vs RPI 40.

Of the top 16 RPI teams, 8 are AQ's and 8 received At Large bids, leaving 6 more at large bids, putting #22 Navy right on the bubble as the 6th team. So I wouldn't call the difference between 22 and 16 small, it's huge actually.

Based off every metric you used in comparing Navy, Fairfield and Duke, I would have taken Colorado over Navy based off quality wins/losses, SOS and RPI SOS. The only metric Navy beats Colorado in is RPI. Conversely, I would have taken Navy over Duke if there was a 30th team selected based off RPI and head to head alone.

[bobinvaluvswlax]

Devil's advocate here (pun kinda intended)

Why are we giving Fairfield a free pass here? Agree Navy should be in, but....

Does anyone here think Fairfield would beat Duke on a neutral field?

Fairfield has 2 pretty bad losses (HC and Niagra), much worse than Duke's worse loss (Clemson). In terms of wins, their best win is Drexel. A nice win, but doesn't compare to beating UVA (Duke) or beating Duke (Navy). Also the MAAC is nowhere close in quality to Patriot league.

It may not be academically, but outside of Loyola, it is significantly better in lacrosse. Siena, the 3rd team in the MAAC is 3-0 vs the Patriot. The MAAC as a whole was 6-4 vs the Patriot. They also had a winning record vs the Big East and A10 and were .500 vs the Ivy's. The Patriot is a 1 team conference with another often overvalued one in Navy and two average teams this year. The bottom six teams are below average routinely.

You haven't watched Fairfield(or Duke) if you don't think they would easily beat Duke on a neutral field.

Fairfield is good at lacrosse. Perennially at the top of the MAAC. Teams in the Patriot league that I believe could beat them include Loyola, Navy, Army and probably Holy Cross in a rematch. Loyola, Navy and even recently Holy Cross were discussed as potentially in the tournament.
Latest coaches poll has Navy #20, Colorado #21 and Fairfield #25.
The question on them was also in regard to the committees selection criteria. If they weight RPI evenly across the teams then Fairfield (16) and Navy (22) are in. If they weight SOS then Duke (12) and Colorado (27) are in. Navy (45) still has a better SOS than Fairfield (59). Head to head would exclude Duke over Navy after the Navy win. There is no formula that when applied evenly to all the teams yields the results that were presented.

I can easily justify Navy over Duke based on RPI and head to head.
I can easily justify Duke over Fairfield based on quality wins, quality loss and SOS
I can easily justify Navy over Fairfield based on quality wins, quality losses
I could justify Fairfield over Duke based on RPI alone.
I can't find anything to justify Fairfield over Navy other than a small difference in RPI.

While the NCAA SOS is based off the average RPI of your top 10 opponents, the RPI SOS component(which is 50% of your RPI #) reflects your whole schedule and in that metric Fairfield has a more difficult SOS than Navy and Duke.

As for easily justifying Navy over Fairfield in Quality Wins/Losses -- Only 3 of Navy's 15 wins are against teams with a winning record. Whereas 8 of Fairfields 16 wins are against winning record teams. Navy does not have a single win vs a team with an RPI better than 30 where Fairfield has 2 wins vs teams better than 30. Navy's best win is vs RPI 30 where Fairfields is vs RPI 20. Fairfields worst loss is vs RPI 30 where Navy's worst loss is vs RPI 40.

Of the top 16 RPI teams, 8 are AQ's and 8 received At Large bids, leaving 6 more at large bids, putting #22 Navy right on the bubble as the 6th team. So I wouldn't call the difference between 22 and 16 small, it's huge actually.

Based off every metric you used in comparing Navy, Fairfield and Duke, I would have taken Colorado over Navy based off quality wins/losses, SOS and RPI SOS. The only metric Navy beats Colorado in is RPI. Conversely, I would have taken Navy over Duke if there was a 30th team selected based off RPI and head to head alone.

Here is how the IWLCA Coaches Ranked these teams throughout the season
IWLCA Coaches Poll
Week Pre 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Navy 25 19 17 17 16 18 18 17 19 21 20 20 20 20
Colorado NR NR 20 19 19 19 20 22 20 20 21 23 24 21
Fairfield NR NR RV RV RV 25 24 25 25 23 23 22 22 25
Duke 24 25 RV NR NR NR RV RV 23 25 25 24 RV RV
RV=Received Votes NR=Not Ranked at all

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Here is how the IWLCA Coaches Ranked these teams throughout the season
IWLCA Coaches Poll
Week Pre 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Navy 25 19 17 17 16 18 18 17 19 21 20 20 20 20
Colorado NR NR 20 19 19 19 20 22 20 20 21 23 24 21
Fairfield NR NR RV RV RV 25 24 25 25 23 23 22 22 25
Duke 24 25 RV NR NR NR RV RV 23 25 25 24 RV RV
RV=Received Votes NR=Not Ranked at all