D3 Men: Over- & Under-Rated Teams

[Matnum PI]

D3 MEN: Overrated, Underrated

Who are the most Overrated and Underrated teams in D3 Men’s Lacrosse?

Setting aside the teams (like RPI, Amherst, and numerous other teams) that haven’t played a game yet are somehow ranked, these are...

https://fanlax.com/2021/04/14/d3-men-ov ... nderrated/

[Laxaholic123]

I think Catholic is very underrated. They have been dominating every team in their path. I like the idea of the list!

[Unknown Participant]

D3 MEN: Overrated, Underrated

Who are the most Overrated and Underrated teams in D3 Men’s Lacrosse?

Setting aside the teams (like RPI, Amherst, and numerous other teams) that haven’t played a game yet are somehow ranked, these are...

https://fanlax.com/2021/04/14/d3-men-ov ... nderrated/

Fake News. I haven't seen any teams that haven't played ranked in any current poll, and Amherst hasn't been ranked since it announced it wasn't playing. And Tufts isn't overrated.

[smoova]

D3 MEN: Overrated, Underrated

Who are the most Overrated and Underrated teams in D3 Men’s Lacrosse?

Setting aside the teams (like RPI, Amherst, and numerous other teams) that haven’t played a game yet are somehow ranked, these are...

https://fanlax.com/2021/04/14/d3-men-ov ... nderrated/

Might want to let Hamilton have a go at Williams before giving the Ephs a 2-0 record. But I'd agree that Williams, with only 7 offensive players and needing to convert multiple poles to SSDMs, is probably overrated at any position over 15th.

[Matnum PI]

Fake News. I haven't seen any teams that haven't played ranked in any current poll, and Amherst hasn't been ranked since it announced it wasn't playing...

FanLax Forum Poll...

[Matnum PI]

Fake News. I haven't seen any teams that haven't played ranked in any current poll, and Amherst hasn't been ranked since it announced it wasn't playing...

FanLax Forum Poll...

[ColonelFastBreak]

This is a strange pair of lists. If you should not rate a team until they have played a certain amount of games (what number isn't specified, of course), then how should we prepare a preseason poll? Just a big lists of "Undecided" over and over? Or maybe "TBD"? This seems inconsistent since early in the season you have to take what you have seen and what you anticipate into consideration. Salisbury at 0-1 didn't fall out of the top 20 because their win percentage was 0%. If you want to say that the only teams that should be ranked are those that have played a sufficient amount of games, then just come out and say it. Otherwise, this a very odd list.

Is Tufts overrated? Maybe, but as of now, it seems like there are three prime national championship contenders (Salisbury, RIT & Tufts) plus a dark horse (York). York is the dark horse because though they are well coached and have had recent success, they don't quite pass the eye test the same way the other three do. Adding the fact that they won't face a serious challenge, unless Stevenson beats them (in which case they weren't a dark horse national championship contender anyways), until the NCAA tournament and York will remain a bit of a mystery until May. Those are the four teams most people have ranked in the top 4, so that seems like the appropriate ranking. By the same logic that Salisbury was not "overrated" when pollsters kept them highly ranked at 0-1, Tufts is not "overrated" simply because they are only 1-0.

Further, the underrated list seems mostly predicated on the idea that Lynchburg is good because they beat Salisbury to open the year. However, just as teams are sometimes highly ranked in the pre-season and turn out to be not nearly as good as their ranking would indicate, many quality teams drop early season games to inferior opponents. By now, the sheen of that win has worn off for Lynchburg for anyone who has been watching. Without a truly dominant run to end the year, they will have a hard time proving they are anything more than a talented, but inconsistent team that fairs much better home than they do on the road. Salisbury has shown themselves to be at least close to the team we thought they might be, though perhaps with more kinks to work out on offense than expected (kinks to work out for Coach Berkman are a dream for most others, of course). This "underrated" list has to assume that Lynchburg's win means quite a bit or else the rest of the circular firing squad (Ithaca aside, for the moment) is just a bunch of average teams beating each other. Putting Lynchburg's win over the Gulls aside, here is what they've done against decent opponents: Split with W&L and Split with CNU and a win over Roanoke, all of whom show up to varying degrees in this "Underrated" list. W&L has losses to SVU and Hampden-Sydney and a split with Lynchburg as well as their win over Roanoke. CNU has their split with Lynchburg, wins over HSC, SVU and Roanoke and a loss to Colorado College. Roanoke has losses to CNU, Lynchburg and W&L and their best win is likely over Mary Washington. Hampden Sydney, who also pops up regularly, has their win over W&L, their win over SVU and their loss to CNU. SVU has their win over W&L and losses to CNU, Colorado College, HSC and Lynchburg. Colorado College has wins over CNU and SVU with a blowout loss to Salisbury, so they may have the best claim to being "underrated". That said, they lost to Division-II Colorado Mesa two weeks ago. This again hinges on those wins over CNU and SVU being meaningful. Here is what they have all done against each other"

Lynchburg: Wins(W&L, CNU, SVU, RC) Losses (W&L, CNU)
W&L: Wins (Lynchburg, RC) Losses (Lynchburg, HSC, SVU)
CNU: Wins (Lynchburg, SVU, RC, HSC) Losses (Lynchburg, CC)
SVU: Wins(W&L) Losses (Lynchburg, CNU, HSC, CC)
RC: Wins() Losses (Lynchburg, W&L, CNU)
HSC: Wins(W&L, SVU) Losses (CNU)
CC: Wins (CNU, SVU) Losses ()

This is truly just a circular firing squad, where any claim that these teams are anything other than average to above-average is based on Lynchburg's win over Salisbury. Is CNU considered good at this point because they beat Lynchburg? Primarily, yes, because Lynchburg beat Salisbury. Where would CNU be ranked if Salisbury had beaten Lynchburg in March? CNU's record is a mix of wins and losses vs decent teams and two blowout losses to Salisbury. That sounds like your criticism of the allegedly overrated #25 (in the Forum Poll) Dickinson. W&L beat Lynchburg once, so they get a bit of credit for that, but they also have some ugly losses. SVU simply has a bunch of losses and their win over W&L, who is apparently good because they split with a team that beat Salisbury. What does anyone think of W&L and SVU if Lynchburg hadn't beaten Salisbury. I have belabored my point on this group of teams that it is really all predicated on this one win. My question to any of you who think about these things is: How much credit are you willing to give Lynchburg (and these other teams) for this one early season win? Or perhaps you are giving them credit for their historic success and the talent they have within their program (something I would not disagree with doing in this strangest of seasons)? Finally, how can they all be underrated if this all hinges on one early season win? I guess you could argue that one or two are underrated, but all of them?

Ithaca could be underrated I guess, but that call isn't looking great today since they got handled by SJF and RIT and their wins are against a very weak Nazareth team, Clarkson and Geneseo (fine programs, but ones that Ithaca should beat).

WNE isn't mentioned at all in the most recent iteration of the FanLax Forum Poll. Overrated indeed.

If the "overated" categorization of Williams is in reference to them be ranked #5 by one pollster, then fair enough. They have so few players on the roster it is hard to imagine they are going to be that strong top to bottom. They still have a handful of All-American caliber players on the field at their best, so they'll be a dangerous team for sure. And, of course, they are well coached. If they win the NESCAC over Tufts it will be an amazing story.

[sipecoth]

Is Tufts overrated? Maybe, but as of now, it seems like there are three prime national championship contenders (Salisbury, RIT & Tufts) plus a dark horse (York). York is the dark horse because though they are well coached and have had recent success, they don't quite pass the eye test the same way the other three do. Adding the fact that they won't face a serious challenge, unless Stevenson beats them (in which case they weren't a dark horse national championship contender anyways), until the NCAA tournament and York will remain a bit of a mystery until May. Those are the four teams most people have ranked in the top 4, so that seems like the appropriate ranking. By the same logic that Salisbury was not "overrated" when pollsters kept them highly ranked at 0-1, Tufts is not "overrated" simply because they are only 1-0.

Further, the underrated list seems mostly predicated on the idea that Lynchburg is good because they beat Salisbury to open the year. However, just as teams are sometimes highly ranked in the pre-season and turn out to be not nearly as good as their ranking would indicate, many quality teams drop early season games to inferior opponents. By now, the sheen of that win has worn off for Lynchburg for anyone who has been watching. Without a truly dominant run to end the year, they will have a hard time proving they are anything more than a talented, but inconsistent team that fairs much better home than they do on the road. Salisbury has shown themselves to be at least close to the team we thought they might be, though perhaps with more kinks to work out on offense than expected (kinks to work out for Coach Berkman are a dream for most others, of course). This "underrated" list has to assume that Lynchburg's win means quite a bit or else the rest of the circular firing squad (Ithaca aside, for the moment) is just a bunch of average teams beating each other. Putting Lynchburg's win over the Gulls aside, here is what they've done against decent opponents: Split with W&L and Split with CNU and a win over Roanoke, all of whom show up to varying degrees in this "Underrated" list. W&L has losses to SVU and Hampden-Sydney and a split with Lynchburg as well as their win over Roanoke. CNU has their split with Lynchburg, wins over HSC, SVU and Roanoke and a loss to Colorado College. Roanoke has losses to CNU, Lynchburg and W&L and their best win is likely over Mary Washington. Hampden Sydney, who also pops up regularly, has their win over W&L, their win over SVU and their loss to CNU. SVU has their win over W&L and losses to CNU, Colorado College, HSC and Lynchburg. Colorado College has wins over CNU and SVU with a blowout loss to Salisbury, so they may have the best claim to being "underrated". That said, they lost to Division-II Colorado Mesa two weeks ago. This again hinges on those wins over CNU and SVU being meaningful. Here is what they have all done against each other"

Lynchburg: Wins(W&L, CNU, SVU, RC) Losses (W&L, CNU)
W&L: Wins (Lynchburg, RC) Losses (Lynchburg, HSC, SVU)
CNU: Wins (Lynchburg, SVU, RC, HSC) Losses (Lynchburg, CC)
SVU: Wins(W&L) Losses (Lynchburg, CNU, HSC, CC)
RC: Wins() Losses (Lynchburg, W&L, CNU)
HSC: Wins(W&L, SVU) Losses (CNU)
CC: Wins (CNU, SVU) Losses ()

This is truly just a circular firing squad, where any claim that these teams are anything other than average to above-average is based on Lynchburg's win over Salisbury. Is CNU considered good at this point because they beat Lynchburg? Primarily, yes, because Lynchburg beat Salisbury. Where would CNU be ranked if Salisbury had beaten Lynchburg in March? CNU's record is a mix of wins and losses vs decent teams and two blowout losses to Salisbury. That sounds like your criticism of the allegedly overrated #25 (in the Forum Poll) Dickinson. W&L beat Lynchburg once, so they get a bit of credit for that, but they also have some ugly losses. SVU simply has a bunch of losses and their win over W&L, who is apparently good because they split with a team that beat Salisbury. What does anyone think of W&L and SVU if Lynchburg hadn't beaten Salisbury. I have belabored my point on this group of teams that it is really all predicated on this one win. My question to any of you who think about these things is: How much credit are you willing to give Lynchburg (and these other teams) for this one early season win? Or perhaps you are giving them credit for their historic success and the talent they have within their program (something I would not disagree with doing in this strangest of seasons)? Finally, how can they all be underrated if this all hinges on one early season win? I guess you could argue that one or two are underrated, but all of them?

Lots of truth in this post.

Unless they graduated a ton of players, York is probably as good as they have been in the past. Talented, well-coached, and hungry.

The circular firing squad argument is a good one. But I don't think you can't dismiss the Lynchburg/Salisbury result. Having seen the Gulls up close and personal a lot in the last 3 years, I feel that I can safely say that if you beat Salisbury, you are a very good team. So yes, IMO, Lynchburg's win vs. Salisbury carries as much weight as everyone thinks.

That said, until this group of teams plays other teams outside their common opponents, we won't 100% know. It's fun to speculate, though.

[MrLax2U]

if you beat Salisbury, you are a very good team. So yes, IMO, Lynchburg's win vs. Salisbury carries as much weight as everyone thinks.

Agree and also agree with everything the Colonel wrote in his well researched and well reasoned post.

Keep in mind that in a preseason game/scrimmage Salisbury man handled Drexel and Drexel is having a pretty good D 1 season. To me that makes the Lynchburg win legit and not a fluke. Is it a linchpin for everything connected that has followed as the Colonel asks? For a few weeks thereafter, Yes. Now it should be wiped out which is where the Colonel seems to be leading our analysis.

[Matnum PI]

Lynchburg beat and lost to Christopher Newport, beat and lost to W&L, and beat Salisbury. I walk away from that information thinking, Lynchburg, CNU, and W&L are three good teams and Lynchburg is particularly good.