How I currently see the NCAA tournament field with 2 weeks left... if the tournament started today:
https://imgur.com/a/pcHeomD
Bids by conference in my current projection:
ACC: 4 (Duke, Virginia, Syracuse, Notre Dame)
Big Ten: 3 (Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State)
Ivy League: 3 (Pennsylvania, Yale, Cornell)
There's been very little movement from last week on the at-large front, but quite few AQs changed hands: AEC, CAA, MAAC, and NEC.
In addition to the five at-large teams that I have as locks, Penn State, Pennsylvania, and Loyola* are also assured of being invited to the dance, no matter how their conference tournaments play out.
* unless Loyola somehow inexplicably loses to Lafayette next week, in which case, forget what I just said.
Update on on the teams on the outside looking in, both UNC and Hopkins lost last week and have a ton of work to do now, with basically no margin for error left. I think both need at least two wins to have a chance, and that feels pretty unlikely. None of the other teams on the wrong side of the bubble look to have enough opportunities left to put together an at-large worthy resume. I think the bubble for at-large is solidifying around the following teams:
Cornell
Denver
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Towson
Villanova (if they lose the AQ spot they currently hold)
As things stand, there would be three at-large bids available for the teams in that group that do not earn an AQ. Out of this group, the Big East teams seem to be in the most trouble as far as at-large bids go.
And of course the bubble can always shrink if there's an upset for an AQ. The following conferences seem capable of producing an AQ that would shrink the bubble by a spot. I'm not entirely convinced that the Big East or CAA can secure two bids, so I'm not including them here.
Big Ten - Rutgers, maybe Hopkins
Ivy League - Brown/Princeton (one or both will make the ILT)
Patriot League - anyone but Loyola