2019 Bracketology Thread

[Wheels]

If Cuse gets left out, prepare to hear a lot about the loss to #47 Colgate.

It doesn't matter when the loss happens. All games are treated equally.

I think Cornell gets left out. Not enough T20 wins compared to Cuse (8) and MD (8).

[JeremyCuse]

If Cuse gets left out, prepare to hear a lot about the loss to #47 Colgate.

It doesn't matter when the loss happens. All games are treated equally.

I think Cornell gets left out. Not enough T20 wins compared to Cuse (8) and MD (8).

Cuse and Maryland both have 5 top 20 wins. SU and Maryland both have a top 5 win and SU has a top 10 win ad well. Cornell has two top 10 wins but nothing else and Hop has 3 top 20 wins but none in the top 5 or 10. The Colgate loss is really hurting SU along with the UNC game. That said SU also has the head to head win against Cornell and Hopkins

[Wheels]

If Cuse gets left out, prepare to hear a lot about the loss to #47 Colgate.

It doesn't matter when the loss happens. All games are treated equally.

I think Cornell gets left out. Not enough T20 wins compared to Cuse (8) and MD (8).

Cuse and Maryland both have 5 top 20 wins. SU and Maryland both have a top 5 win and SU has a top 10 win ad well. Cornell has two top 10 wins but nothing else and Hop has 3 top 20 wins but none in the top 5 or 10. The Colgate loss is really hurting SU along with the UNC game. That said SU also has the head to head win against Cornell and Hopkins

Ah, you're right. I'm reading that last column wrong on Patrick Stevens's last update.

[laxfan1313]

When Cornell played Syracuse, Syracuse was the better team. However, the committee analyzes the entire body of work. Syracuse's problem is that its strength of schedule isn't that impressive - the committee looks at the top 10 RPIs of a team's opponents. In that category, Cornell is ranked 3rd, Syracuse 14th. Syracuse has the better RPI, 10 vs. 12. However, Cornell is better ranked in looking at quality wins, 7th vs. 10th. Cornell has 2 quality wins, Towson and Notre Dame and no quality losses. Syracuse has 2 quality wins but 2 quality losses including to Colgate. Thus, calculating the laxbytes formula which has accurately predicted 46 out of 48 at large bid recipients over the past 6 years, with the lower number being better, Cornell is currently at 20.50, Syracuse 27.00. I make no prediction about what will happen tomorrow at the selection show, and surely believe Syracuse is deserving, but am just glad Cornell is in the discussion.

[JeremyCuse]

When Cornell played Syracuse, Syracuse was the better team. However, the committee analyzes the entire body of work. Syracuse's problem is that its strength of schedule isn't that impressive - the committee looks at the top 10 RPIs of a team's opponents. In that category, Cornell is ranked 3rd, Syracuse 14th. Syracuse has the better RPI, 10 vs. 12. However, Cornell is better ranked in looking at quality wins, 7th vs. 10th. Cornell has 2 quality wins, Towson and Notre Dame and no quality losses. Syracuse has 2 quality wins but 2 quality losses including to Colgate. Thus, calculating the laxbytes formula which has accurately predicted 46 out of 48 at large bid recipients over the past 6 years, with the lower number being better, Cornell is currently at 20.50, Syracuse 27.00. I make no prediction about what will happen tomorrow at the selection show, and surely believe Syracuse is deserving, but am just glad Cornell is in the discussion.

Laxbytes is wrong, SUs SOS isnt 14th, lax mag has it at 8. The Colgate loss is bad, real bad, however, the other 2 losses are to top 10 teams and the third to top 20 UNC. As an SU fan I'm clearly looking at it through Orange colored glasses but SU has a top 5 win, Cornell doesn't and SU has 5 top 20 wins, Cornell has 2. Plus SU has the head to head blowout win. I can't see Cornell getting in over SU.

[a fan]

If Cuse gets left out, prepare to hear a lot about the loss to #47 Colgate.

It doesn't matter when the loss happens. All games are treated equally.

I think Cornell gets left out. Not enough T20 wins compared to Cuse (8) and MD (8).

Cuse and Maryland both have 5 top 20 wins. SU and Maryland both have a top 5 win and SU has a top 10 win ad well. Cornell has two top 10 wins but nothing else and Hop has 3 top 20 wins but none in the top 5 or 10. The Colgate loss is really hurting SU along with the UNC game. That said SU also has the head to head win against Cornell and Hopkins

I can't remember a team with four top 20 wins getting left out of the tourney, let alone five.

Desko is in the papers saying they earned a home game. Can't imagine him saying that if he's not sure SU is in. This is not his first rodeo.

[laxfan1313]

When Cornell played Syracuse, Syracuse was the better team. However, the committee analyzes the entire body of work. Syracuse's problem is that its strength of schedule isn't that impressive - the committee looks at the top 10 RPIs of a team's opponents. In that category, Cornell is ranked 3rd, Syracuse 14th. Syracuse has the better RPI, 10 vs. 12. However, Cornell is better ranked in looking at quality wins, 7th vs. 10th. Cornell has 2 quality wins, Towson and Notre Dame and no quality losses. Syracuse has 2 quality wins but 2 quality losses including to Colgate. Thus, calculating the laxbytes formula which has accurately predicted 46 out of 48 at large bid recipients over the past 6 years, with the lower number being better, Cornell is currently at 20.50, Syracuse 27.00. I make no prediction about what will happen tomorrow at the selection show, and surely believe Syracuse is deserving, but am just glad Cornell is in the discussion.

Laxbytes is wrong, SUs SOS isnt 14th, lax mag has it at 8. The Colgate loss is bad, real bad, however, the other 2 losses are to top 10 teams and the third to top 20 UNC. As an SU fan I'm clearly looking at it through Orange colored glasses but SU has a top 5 win, Cornell doesn't and SU has 5 top 20 wins, Cornell has 2. Plus SU has the head to head blowout win. I can't see Cornell getting in over SU.

Apparently, Lax Mag isn't calculating SOS in the manner done by the selection committee. They only take the 10 best opponents by RPI ranking. When done that way, Cornell is 3, Syracuse is 14. Enough said by me. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

[JeremyCuse]

If Cuse gets left out, prepare to hear a lot about the loss to #47 Colgate.

It doesn't matter when the loss happens. All games are treated equally.

I think Cornell gets left out. Not enough T20 wins compared to Cuse (8) and MD (8).

Cuse and Maryland both have 5 top 20 wins. SU and Maryland both have a top 5 win and SU has a top 10 win ad well. Cornell has two top 10 wins but nothing else and Hop has 3 top 20 wins but none in the top 5 or 10. The Colgate loss is really hurting SU along with the UNC game. That said SU also has the head to head win against Cornell and Hopkins

I can't remember a team with four top 20 wins getting left out of the tourney, let alone five.

Desko is in the papers saying they earned a home game. Can't imagine him saying that if he's not sure SU is in. This is not his first rodeo.

Agreed, which is why I found it odd every bracket projection has them in but some of these indie guys projecting strictly off stats have SU out and laxbytes has them way out. Theres some huge disconnect here that one side is missing bigtime. As you mentioned seems bizarre for Desko to be lobbying publicly for a home game if there dangerously close to being left out. Something is way off.

[10stone5]

If they go just rank order based on the criteria,
Cuse is out.
Hop, ND, MD - Cornell, last two.
I’ll be curious how that head to head game Cuse and Cornell gets measured, versus the Cuse bad loss to Colgate, they may just say, that’s a wash for Cuse and so let’s look only at the numbers.
Course all five would be in if only ...

(loyola)

[Chousnake]

Last year head to head meant nothing when comparing SU to Cornell. Cornell beat SU handily, but SU got the home game. If head to head is taken into account comparing SU to Cornell, why not when comparing Cornell to ND?...

[admin]

9 Automatic Qualifiers: 1-UMBC (America East), 2-Georgetown (Big East), 3-Towson (CAA), 4-Penn/Yale winner (Ivy), 5-Marist (MAAC), who will play, most likely, 6-Robert Morris (Northeast) in the Play-In Game, 7- Army/Lehigh winner (Patriot), 8-Richmond (Southern), and 9-Penn State (B1G).

8 At-Larges: Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke, and Syracuse (ACC), Cornell and whichever of Penn/Yale don’t win the Ivies, Loyola (Patriot), and Maryland and Johns Hopkins (B1G) will be joining them BUT... That's 9 At-Larges. One of these 100%-deserving-to-be-in-the-tournament teams will not be in the Tourney. The question is whom. SO...

Penn/Yale loser, Duke, Cornell, Virginia, Maryland, and Loyola are in. Which leaves Hopkins, Notre Dame, and Syracuse. ACC gets 4 and B1G gets 2? Not likely. Especially with JHU losing to PSU in OT. JHU is in. Which leaves SU and Notre Dame... who are basically tied in their RPI (depends which RPI you look at), Best Win (tied), SOS (ND ahead but SU's Win % is 69% to ND's 57%), and the most important metric of all, FanLax Ranking (ND's 1,352 to SU's 1,351). It is so close. We'll see but... This is exactly why the committee needs to use a viable, fair, analytical Ranking System.

[JeremyCuse]

9 Automatic Qualifiers: 1-UMBC (America East), 2-Georgetown (Big East), 3-Towson (CAA), 4-Penn/Yale winner (Ivy), 5-Marist (MAAC), who will play, most likely, 6-Robert Morris (Northeast) in the Play-In Game, 7- Army/Lehigh winner (Patriot), 8-Richmond (Southern), and 9-Penn State (B1G).

8 At-Larges: Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke, and Syracuse (ACC), Cornell and whichever of Penn/Yale don’t win the Ivies, Loyola (Patriot), and Maryland and Johns Hopkins (B1G) will be joining them BUT... That's 9 At-Larges. One of these 100%-deserving-to-be-in-the-tournament teams will not be in the Tourney. The question is whom. SO...

Penn/Yale loser, Duke, Cornell, Virginia, Maryland, and Loyola are in. Which leaves Hopkins, Notre Dame, and Syracuse. ACC gets 4 and B1G gets 2? Not likely. Especially with JHU losing to PSU in OT. JHU is in. Which leaves SU and Notre Dame... who are basically tied in their RPI (depends which RPI you look at), Best Win (tied), SOS (ND ahead but SU's Win % is 69% to ND's 57%), and the most important metric of all, FanLax Ranking (ND's 1,352 to SU's 1,351). It is so close. We'll see but... This is exactly why the committee needs to use a viable, fair, analytical Ranking System.

Not sure how Maryland is a lock but SUs battling for its life when there numbers are so close. Again SU 5 top 20 wins, ditto Maryland. SU 1 top 5 win ditto Maryland. SU has a top ten win (Jhu) and 3 10-20 wins). Marylands other 4 wins are 10-20 wins. Cornell 2 top 20 Wins both in the 5-10 range no top 5 wins and no 10-20 wins. Hop 3 top 20 wins all 10-20 range no top 5 or top 10. I know the response, RPI + quality win + opponents rpi plus other metrics. That's fine but again SU and Maryland have more quality wins when looking at the top 20 victories and SU has the head to head vs Cornell and Hopkins.

[Matnum PI]

Not sure how Maryland is a lock...

A W over Penn and a good RPI.

[tech37]

9 Automatic Qualifiers: 1-UMBC (America East), 2-Georgetown (Big East), 3-Towson (CAA), 4-Penn/Yale winner (Ivy), 5-Marist (MAAC), who will play, most likely, 6-Robert Morris (Northeast) in the Play-In Game, 7- Army/Lehigh winner (Patriot), 8-Richmond (Southern), and 9-Penn State (B1G).

8 At-Larges: Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke, and Syracuse (ACC), Cornell and whichever of Penn/Yale don’t win the Ivies, Loyola (Patriot), and Maryland and Johns Hopkins (B1G) will be joining them BUT... That's 9 At-Larges. One of these 100%-deserving-to-be-in-the-tournament teams will not be in the Tourney. The question is whom. SO...

Penn/Yale loser, Duke, Cornell, Virginia, Maryland, and Loyola are in. Which leaves Hopkins, Notre Dame, and Syracuse. ACC gets 4 and B1G gets 2? Not likely. Especially with JHU losing to PSU in OT. JHU is in. Which leaves SU and Notre Dame... who are basically tied in their RPI (depends which RPI you look at), Best Win (tied), SOS (ND ahead but SU's Win % is 69% to ND's 57%), and the most important metric of all, FanLax Ranking (ND's 1,352 to SU's 1,351). It is so close. We'll see but... This is exactly why the committee needs to use a viable, fair, analytical Ranking System.

Not sure how Maryland is a lock but SUs battling for its life when there numbers are so close. Again SU 5 top 20 wins, ditto Maryland. SU 1 top 5 win ditto Maryland. SU has a top ten win (Jhu) and 3 10-20 wins). Marylands other 4 wins are 10-20 wins. Cornell 2 top 20 Wins both in the 5-10 range no top 5 wins and no 10-20 wins. Hop 3 top 20 wins all 10-20 range no top 5 or top 10. I know the response, RPI + quality win + opponents rpi plus other metrics. That's fine but again SU and Maryland have more quality wins when looking at the top 20 victories and SU has the head to head vs Cornell and Hopkins.

Re Hopkins: Despite "the numbers", based on recent performance, there is no way the committee leaves them out. The only question is, does committee make them a low seed and first round host at Homewood, or do they travel?

IMO, the first three seeds (first round home games) will be, 1.PSU, 2.Yale (I think Yale will win Ivies), and 3.Virginia. The remaining five seeds and how the committee determines them is anyone's guess.

[genghiskhanbluejay]

If Cuse gets left out, prepare to hear a lot about the loss to #47 Colgate.

It doesn't matter when the loss happens. All games are treated equally.

I think Cornell gets left out. Not enough T20 wins compared to Cuse (8) and MD (8).

Cuse and Maryland both have 5 top 20 wins. SU and Maryland both have a top 5 win and SU has a top 10 win ad well. Cornell has two top 10 wins but nothing else and Hop has 3 top 20 wins but none in the top 5 or 10. The Colgate loss is really hurting SU along with the UNC game. That said SU also has the head to head win against Cornell and Hopkins

Maryland is sitting at 11. Should the committee hold against Hopkins the fact that they beat Maryland twice in a row at the end of the season to bump them just outside the top 10? If Hopkins would have just beat Maryland once and thrown the other game they would have picked up a top 10 win, maybe even a top 5! I think when the committee chairman says (and he always does) that they “look at the entire body of work” it’s to put the entirety of a season into perspective, minimize idiocy and try to get the best teams in; otherwise you don’t need a committee, just create a program and algorithms and be done with it. It should come down to Cuse and Cornell for that last spot and I think Cuse should be in.

[laxreference]

Here is a quick statistical comparison of the teams that the committee is going to be discussing today:

BubbleComp_Johns_Hopkins_Notre_Dame_Syracuse_Maryland_Cornell_20190505.png (17.98 KiB) Viewed 3669 times

Obviously, everyone has at least one argument in their favor. Here are the full SOR ratings as well.

[HopFan16]

I've been trying to say this for weeks. Looking at that RPI—and maybe this is my bias showing—I have a very, very difficult time seeing them leaving the #8 RPI team in the country out of the tournament, especially when they have two H2H wins over the #11 team. It's not like they are #20 in RPI or something and are hoping those two Maryland wins get them back into the conversation (which is essentially what Rutgers' case was in 2016). They're #8, ahead of these other bubble teams. Again, I'm a Jays fan, so maybe I'm seeing it the way I WANT to see it but to me I think it will ultimately come down to Maryland vs. Cornell for that final spot. I do not think Syracuse is in as much danger as some of you do, but I guess we'll all know in a matter of hours.

[DaneFan]

No way Hopkins gets left out. I know the committee isn't supposed to reward the hot team, but the way the Jays finished the season they are very deserving, but probably don't host a game.

[JeremyCuse]

Not sure how Maryland is a lock...

A W over Penn and a good RPI.

Versus a win over Duke and a better RPI?

[AreaLax]

Not sure how Maryland is a lock...

A W over Penn and a good RPI.

Versus a win over Duke and a better RPI?

The win over Penn plays in more because both Maryland and Cornell played Penn. Maryland did not play Duke.