All things CoronaVirus

[runrussellrun]

To Continue the outcome of this interesting meeting.....and the implementation of "recommendations"

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/ ... tions.html

Public-private cooperation for pandemic preparedness and response
Download the recommendations (PDF)

A call to action
The next severe pandemic will not only cause great illness and loss of life but could also trigger major cascading economic and societal consequences that could contribute greatly to global impact and suffering. Efforts to prevent such consequences or respond to them as they unfold will require unprecedented levels of collaboration between governments, international organizations, and the private sector. There have been important efforts to engage the private sector in epidemic and outbreak preparedness at the national or regional level.1,2 However, there are major unmet global vulnerabilities and international system challenges posed by pandemics that will require new robust forms of public-private cooperation to address.

The Event 201 pandemic exercise, conducted on October 18, 2019, vividly demonstrated a number of these important gaps in pandemic preparedness as well as some of the elements of the solutions between the public and private sectors that will be needed to fill them. The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, World Economic Forum, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation jointly propose the following:

Governments, international organizations, and businesses should plan now for how essential corporate capabilities will be utilized during a large-scale pandemic. During a severe pandemic, public sector efforts to control the outbreak are likely to become overwhelmed. But industry assets, if swiftly and appropriately deployed, could help to save lives and reduce economic losses. For instance, companies with operations focused on logistics, social media, or distribution systems will be needed to enable governments’ emergency response, risk communications, and medical countermeasure distribution efforts during a pandemic. This includes working together to ensure that strategic commodities are available and accessible for public health response. Contingency planning for a potential operational partnership between government and business will be complex, with many legal and organizational details to be addressed. Governments should work now to identify the most critical areas of need and reach out to industry players with the goal of finalizing agreements in advance of the next large pandemic. The Global Preparedness Monitoring Board would be well positioned to help monitor and contribute to the efforts that governments, international organizations and businesses should take for pandemic preparedness and response.

Industry, national governments, and international organizations should work together to enhance internationally held stockpiles of medical countermeasures (MCMs) to enable rapid and equitable distribution during a severe pandemic. The World Health Organization (WHO) currently has an influenza vaccine virtual stockpile, with contracts in place with pharmaceutical companies that have agreed to supply vaccines should WHO request them. As one possible approach, this virtual stockpile model could be expanded to augment WHO’s ability to distribute vaccines and therapeutics to countries in the greatest need during a severe pandemic. This should also include any available experimental vaccine stockpiles for any WHO R&D Blueprint pathogens to deploy in a clinical trial during outbreaks in collaboration with CEPI, GAVI, and WHO. Other approaches could involve regional stockpiles or bi- or multinational agreements. During a catastrophic outbreak, countries may be reluctant to part with scarce medical resources. A robust international stockpile could therefore help to ensure that low and middle resource settings receive needed supplies regardless of whether they produce such supplies domestically. Countries with national supplies or domestic manufacturing capabilities should commit to donating some supply/product to this virtual stockpile. Countries should support this effort through the provision of additional funding.

Countries, international organizations, and global transportation companies should work together to maintain travel and trade during severe pandemics. Travel and trade are essential to the global economy as well as to national and even local economies, and they should be maintained even in the face of a pandemic. Improved decision-making, coordination, and communications between the public and private sectors, relating to risk, travel advisories, import/export restrictions, and border measures will be needed. The fear and uncertainty experienced during past outbreaks, even those limited to a national or regional level, have sometimes led to unjustified border measures, the closure of customer-facing businesses, import bans, and the cancellation of airline flights and international shipping. A particularly fast-moving and lethal pandemic could therefore result in political decisions to slow or stop movement of people and goods, potentially harming economies already vulnerable in the face of an outbreak. Ministries of Health and other government agencies should work together now with international airlines and global shipping companies to develop realistic response scenarios and start a contingency planning process with the goal of mitigating economic damage by maintaining key travel and trade routes during a large-scale pandemic. Supporting continued trade and travel in such an extreme circumstance may require the provision of enhanced disease control measures and personal protective equipment for transportation workers, government subsidies to support critical trade routes, and potentially liability protection in certain cases. International organizations including WHO, the International Air Transport Association, and the International Civil Aviation Organization should be partners in these preparedness and response efforts.

Governments should provide more resources and support for the development and surge manufacturing of vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics that will be needed during a severe pandemic. In the event of a severe pandemic, countries may need population-level supplies of safe and effective medical countermeasures, including vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics. Therefore, the ability to rapidly develop, manufacture, distribute, and dispense large quantities of MCMs will be needed to contain and control a global outbreak. Countries with enough resources should greatly increase this capability. In coordination with WHO, CEPI, GAVI, and other relevant multilateral and domestic mechanisms, investments should be made in new technologies and industrial approaches, that will allow concomitant distributed manufacturing. This will require addressing legal and regulatory barriers among other issues.

Global business should recognize the economic burden of pandemics and fight for stronger preparedness. In addition to investing more in preparing their own companies and industries, business leaders and their shareholders should actively engage with governments and advocate for increased resources for pandemic preparedness. Globally, there has been a lack of attention and investment in preparing for high-impact pandemics, and business is largely not involved in existing efforts. To a significant extent this is due to a lack of awareness of the business risks posed by a pandemic. Tools should be built that help large private sector companies visualize business risks posed by infectious disease and pathways to mitigate risk through public-private cooperation to strengthen preparedness. A severe pandemic would greatly interfere with workforce health, business operations, and the movement of goods and services.3 A catastrophic-level outbreak can also have profound and long-lasting effects on entire industries, the economy, and societies in which business operates. While governments and public health authorities serve as the first line of defense against fast-moving outbreaks, their efforts are chronically under-funded and lack sustained support. Global business leaders should play a far more dynamic role as advocates with a stake in stronger pandemic preparedness.

International organizations should prioritize reducing economic impacts of epidemics and pandemics. Much of the economic harm resulting from a pandemic is likely to be due to counterproductive behavior of individuals, companies, and countries. For example, actions that lead to disruption of travel and trade or that change consumer behavior can greatly damage economies. In addition to other response activities, an increase in and reassessment of pandemic financial support will certainly be needed in a severe pandemic as many sectors of society may need financial support during or after a severe pandemic, including healthcare institutions, essential businesses, and national governments Furthermore, the ways in which these existing funds can now be used are limited. The International Health Regulations prioritize both minimizing public health risks and avoiding unnecessary interference with international traffic and trade. But there will also be a need to identify critical nodes of the banking system and global and national economies that are too essential to fail – there are some that are likely to need emergency international financial support as well. The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, regional development banks, national governments, foundations, and others should explore ways to increase the amount and availability of funds in a pandemic and ensure that they can be flexibly used where needed.

Governments and the private sector should assign a greater priority to developing methods to combat mis- and disinformation prior to the next pandemic response. Governments will need to partner with traditional and social media companies to research and develop nimble approaches to countering misinformation. This will require developing the ability to flood media with fast, accurate, and consistent information. Public health authorities should work with private employers and trusted community leaders such as faith leaders, to promulgate factual information to employees and citizens. Trusted, influential private-sector employers should create the capacity to readily and reliably augment public messaging, manage rumors and misinformation, and amplify credible information to support emergency public communications. National public health agencies should work in close collaboration with WHO to create the capability to rapidly develop and release consistent health messages. For their part, media companies should commit to ensuring that authoritative messages are prioritized and that false messages are suppressed including though the use of technology.
Accomplishing the above goals will require collaboration among governments, international organizations and global business. If these recommendations are robustly pursued, major progress can be made to diminish the potential impact and consequences of pandemics. We call on leaders in global business, international organizations, and national governments to launch an ambitious effort to work together to build a world better prepared for a severe pandemic.

[MDlaxfan76]

The pattern seems to be that you need 2-3 weeks of serious social distancing to get some bend in the curve.

Depending on the particular place, here in the U.S. we are 1-2 weeks in.

So hopefully we'll start to see some bend this time next week. Only going to get worse until then as the hurricanes start landfalling in NYC, FL, Nola, etc.

Yes, some bend will begin to be seen in those areas where it actually was followed.
Apparently some evidence of that in Westchester, Rye etc.

But WAY too much of the country ignored it. Still ignoring.
There will be bloom after bloom after bloom.

Looks like New Orleans and environs might be worst.

Social distancing DOES work.
We're all familiar with China's #'s, which may well be understated, but there's no question that the immensely draconian measures did work.

For instance, big crackdown on movement inside of the country plus full lock down and lots of surveillance testing meant that Shanghai with 22 million people has had less than 500 cases test positive, just 4 deaths. Even if we were to assume 10X or even 100X underreporting (which definitely is not the case), they crushed this way better than we're doing...because we're still not 'all in'.

Too many people still think this just another flu.

[Peter Brown]

I'm posting this here because it has to do with Coronavirus speaking, but what is wrong with Biden? I realize nothing in this universe will change people's votes in the Fall, which is fine, but does anyone else see what is happening with this guy? This is a very serious post and not meant to provoke the Dems. I honestly think something is off about Joe. Bernie is older but way more aware.

https://deadline.com/2020/03/joe-biden- ... 202891856/

Joe got tripped up over the phrase “the cure is worse than the disease.” So did Anderson Cooper the other night.

George Bush said, “fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, I won’t get fooled again” with apologies to The Who.

Joe is inarticulate. Always has been. Don’t confuse that with a lack of intelligence or judgment, or with dementia. Yes, he isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed, but he is light years better than what we got right now.

GWB, imo, was the worst POTUS in recent history. I'm not sure that is a good excuse to throw at me.

[runrussellrun]

What the heck.....does Joe biden, public speaking skills, etc. have to do with corona virus.

Please post in the appropriate threads.

[njbill]

Your point was the Joe’s malapropisms were a sign of mental decline. Say what you will about Bush, but no one thought he was declining mentally while he was president or, in particular, when he made that statement.

[runrussellrun]

https://www.globalhealthnow.org/2020-01 ... s-outbreak

Why would WHO (world Health Organization) recommend this on Jan. 22, 2020 ?

Does that extend to things like travel restrictions? Is that a possible next step?

The World Health Organization recommends against travel restrictions. The US and other countries may issue travel advisories to make people aware of what’s going on and maybe to recommend that [only] essential travel should go forward. But there are significant economic and societal consequences from seriously restricting travel or closing borders, which is the most extreme response.

[ggait]

God help us if Trump stays on the course of telling people they can 'pack the churches'.

Good thing we are a federal system.

The governors and mayors, thankfully, are really the ones in charge of the local response. None of them are listening to or following Trump. Neither are most of the Feds involved in the fight. No schools or churches or restaurants are going to be re-opened based on what Trump does/does not say.

Trump will keep spouting happy talk in an attempt to talk up the stock market and his re-election chances. But he's pretty irrelevant to any decisions being made.

The cynic in me, however, thinks that Trump will wind up benefiting from the huge gift he's getting from this crisis. Sixty minutes (or more) of national TV time every single day is a big campaign megaphone.

The other thing that is going to help Trump is that his base (at least so far) is not that much effected. Rural people are already socially distanced to a great degree. Poor people don't travel much. Retired people aren't at risk of being laid off and losing a paycheck. They can sit at home and watch Trump and FNC just fine.

[Matnum PI]

Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, South Korea have all done the right things. They saw what was happening in China (and otherwise), acknowledged the issue, and responded accordingly. i.e. Responded with thought and logic and, above all, with purpose and focus. Others reacted very differently. And none more differently than the US. Specifically, Trump. The level of denial and arrogance that he's demonstrating to this day is astonishing.

[runrussellrun]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoLw-Q8X174

Truth stranger than fiction?

[runrussellrun]

Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, South Korea have all done the right things. They saw what was happening in China (and otherwise), acknowledged the issue, and responded accordingly. i.e. Responded with thought and logic and, above all, with purpose and focus. Others reacted very differently. And none more differently than the US. Specifically, Trump. The level of denial and arrogance that he's demonstrating to this day is astonishing.

I just posted what WHO recommended on Jan. 22. Do we listen to the "professionals" or not?

NO travel bans......economic ruin or else.

why are we blaming idiot politicians ?

[Matnum PI]

Because they have money and the power to dramatically help and improve this situation. That's their job.

[ChairmanOfTheBoard]

just curious- seeing many posts about how local govt is in control here. but also many posts about how DJ Trump has fumbled this (which i agree with), but implies that he is in at least some control.

put simply- which is it, is he in control here or not. thanks in advance for thoughts. i appreciate that there is nuance between these two concepts and that they are not necessarily mutually exclusive. just asking.

[runrussellrun]

Because they have money and the power to dramatically help and improve this situation. That's their job.

ummm.....ok.

So, our idiot politicians, didn't just hand over our decadenal "bailout" (you think the truckers, grocery clerks, etc. will see a dime of worth? The ones on the front lines of this problem) ....then they are doing their job? What are you complaining about than ?

[Matnum PI]

Half are 18-44. This is not an old person's virus...

[Matnum PI]

So, our idiot politicians, didn't just hand over our decadenal "bailout"... What are you complaining about than ?

There's more to do than throw many at the problem...

[ggait]

put simply- which is it, is he in control here or not. thanks in advance for thoughts. i appreciate that there is nuance between these two concepts and that they are not necessarily mutually exclusive. just asking.

For the stuff that the Feds can impact, I think the deep state and Congress are fully woke and running the show. At this point, I don't see Trump having any real impact. Whatever potential authority and influence he had has been forfeited. Who really thinks they'll be sitting in Easter services in two weeks? What hedge funder is trading based on what Trump or Hannity says?

I think Trump can be blamed for not sounding the alarm earlier and louder. But I don't think he makes much difference now that facts/reality have blown past his BS and happy talk.

I don't see him doing much other than talking to his base and trying to message for his re-election campaign. Pretty much like he always does.

Said another way, he didn't lead or follow. So everyone else is pushing him out of the way.

[runrussellrun]

Put another way, why is there such a large CDC, data driven discrepancy in the 2009 swine flu deaths? World wide and in the US ?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resour ... demic.html

Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.**

Are the current, "real time" Johns Hopkins **(huh !!) updates as accurate, or rather INaccurate, as the cdc estimates?

**Why is a private business running the real time data?

[MDlaxfan76]

just curious- seeing many posts about how local govt is in control here. but also many posts about how DJ Trump has fumbled this (which i agree with), but implies that he is in at least some control.

put simply- which is it, is he in control here or not. thanks in advance for thoughts. i appreciate that there is nuance between these two concepts and that they are not necessarily mutually exclusive. just asking.

If by "control" you are asking whether Trump is still POTUS, and whether the POTUS has immense power, exercised or not, obviously the answer is 'yes'.

But that doesn't seem to be at issue.

Trump's acts of omission may sometimes be worse than his acts of commission, sometimes the reverse. Both are exercises of "control".

But in large part, the decision to not federalize various aspects of the response (omission) is married to the decision to downplay the severity of the issue through his bully pulpit (commission).

That's left Governors to need to act without the consistency of their neighbors (virus doesn't care about borders) and without the resources of the federal government rationally apportioned to the most severe needs, and with close to half their populations listening to the POTUS tell them it's not actually such a serious problem that they really do need to change their behaviors to the degree the scientists and their Governors are telling them.

Of course, the federal bureaucracy is not entirely immobilized by Trump's choices over these past months, but they are clearly less effective than they could have been had he made better choices.

Painfully, many of us are going to be touched personally by these mistakes, whether ourselves or someone we care about will suffer.

[runrussellrun]

So, our idiot politicians, didn't just hand over our decadenal "bailout"... What are you complaining about than ?

There's more to do than throw many at the problem...

Be specific. Define one problem, and what to do to solve it?

Throw more money Johns Hopkins way?

[Matnum PI]

just curious- seeing many posts about how local govt is in control here. but also many posts about how DJ Trump has fumbled this (which i agree with)... just asking.

Both are in control of what they can control. With this said, obviously the POTUS has substantially more power (and control) over more things than a, for example, local mayor. This is analogous to a head coach and the players. In the end, the players do most everything (i.e. At no point will Trump be in New Orleans checking-in patients), but the coach sets the players up to have success or failure. In other words, you need both. Currently, most locals are doing what they can. Much like players would. But... It really helps to have a good coach. Currently, we do not.