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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 12:27 pm
by Cooter
Trumansburger wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 11:49 am
Cooter wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 10:27 am
Laf from laxpowers assessment has Cornell at 50%
http://www.laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/ncaapb01.php
The quality wins factor has usually seemed rather important to selection committees and Hopkins is the worst of the five in that category by a significant amount.
While the selection criteria are listed, how a particular selection committee uses it often seems inconsistent. So it is hard to figure out, with a lot of teams relatively close, what will be the major factor.
OK, I see Cornell listed at 50%. And when I scroll down it shows Syracuse with only 33% and Maryland 42.9% Tournament Selection Probability. Those seem low. Am I missing something?
It could relate to the fact that teams have not been awarded AQs yet. It looks like the sum of the at-large probabilities has been normalized to 8.
For example, Yale and Penn have both AQ probabilities and at-large probabilities. After their game tomorrow, one will be an AQ and have no at-large probability. So right now, there is a good amount of at-large probability being held by teams that will be AQs.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 12:49 pm
by 44WeWantMore
That makes sense, thanks.
Do you read the
PSU-JHU AQ odds at 45.25/54.75 to favor JHU tonight?
The same site predicts that the Jays will lose by over 5.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 1:28 pm
by cu21
http://web1.ncaa.org/committees/committ ... eName=1MLA
Above is this years committee Army AD, Brown AD, Towson AD, Furman Coach (Richie Meade), Loyola AD, Marquette Coach (Joe Amplo). Fairly interesting committee this year especially if Towson doesn't win their AQ. Does anyone know how it works when an at-large is in discussion for AL bid and their school AD/coach is on the panel? Do they recuse themselves because if Towson, loses both Loyola and Towson AD's would then be recused leaving only the other four (I believe one is an alternate though as it is technically only a 5 man committee).
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 1:54 pm
by stupefied
Richmond 12 High Point 6 in 4tq
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 2:17 pm
by TheBigIguana
Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 9:10 pm
TheBigIguana wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 1:11 pm
youthathletics wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 12:19 pm
The AQ makes sense but IMO when leagues are not balanced in qty, the measurement in stats can not be balanced.
The PL teams are are at a minimum 1-2 games out of contentions for QW's/QL's due in part to their 9 team league (the largest), which handcuffs them for OOC scheduling, especially when their bye weeks are locked down for 2-3 years straight.
One could argue, if they had more flexibility in scheduling, maybe break the PL into two divisions on a rotational basis, it would allow them all to gather more challenging and different opponents yearly, which in the end builds each teams resume and ability to face opponents that will punch them in mouth.
They could still have the PL tournament in its current structure, top seed teams on each side earns a bye and team 2-3 play in on each side the Tuesday before PL Tourney Friday and Sunday.
The best thing that could happen for the Patriot is American adding men's lax so that the two division league can happen.
A, i have some knowledge of the school having gone to grad school there and I don’t think they’d ever add lacrosse.
B. if they did, watch out Loyola. People forget this is a lacrosse focused site but Loyola’s lacrosse “dominance” of league as an affiliate member who doesn’t add to academics or navy did for Army is more of a problem for them. Conferences don’t like interlopers taking their spots. As a Hobart alum I can speak to this as well.
Loyola isn't an affiliate member. They are a full member with every Loyola sport playing in the league. Adding American would simply bring the conference to 10 members like it is for sports like basketball and soccer. I don't have any knowledge of American's inner workings so I'll take your word for it on them not adding lacrosse but it would be nice if they did.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 2:26 pm
by Farfromgeneva
Yeah I already addressed the membership mistake h they were affiliate members and laying my own Hobart agitation on top of it from history.
On American,it’s based on my observation spending two years on campus. They get a ton of tri state students already, have solid not great academics and a very leftward leaning culture. No football helps but I just don’t see it happening absent a major tectonic shift in the culture there.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 6:37 pm
by cu21
http://www.laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/ncaapb01.php
Laxbytes modelling it as JHU last team in currently with Syracuse and Maryland last two out (Big East and PL winner will both be in). Should be interesting selection Sunday Syracuse, JHU, Maryland, and Cornell all have cases to make. Cornell and JHU with strong SOS 2 and 3 respectively with Maryland and Syracuse at 13 and 15. RPI is close between all but is JHU(8)>Syracuse(10)>Maryland(11)>Cornell(12). QW is Maryland(5)>Cornell(8)>Syracuse(9)>JHU(14). Will be interesting to see what comitee weighs as most important between those and how much head to head ends up mattering for these teams.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 6:38 pm
by HopFan16
cu21 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 6:37 pm
http://www.laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/ncaapb01.php
Laxbytes modelling it as JHU last team in currently with Syracuse and Maryland last two out (Big East and PL winner will both be in). Should be interesting selection Sunday Syracuse, JHU, Maryland, and Cornell all have cases to make. Cornell and JHU with strong SOS 2 and 3 respectively with Maryland and Syracuse at 13 and 15. RPI is close between all but is JHU(8)>Syracuse(10)>Maryland(11)>Cornell(12). QW is Maryland(5)>Cornell(8)>Syracuse(9)>JHU(14). Will be interesting to see what comitee weighs as most important between those and how much head to head ends up mattering for these teams.
I believe that this model is severely overrating Cornell's chances and underrating Syracuse's chances. But that's just me.
Five teams vying for last four invites
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 9:40 pm
by laf
Here is a look
]
www.laxbytes.com/ncaa.htm
You decide!
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 10:01 pm
by tech37
First round speculation from anyone?
Who's play'in whom?
Re: Five teams vying for last four invites
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 10:07 pm
by JeremyCuse
The SOS for Syracuse looks way off. SU was at 6 prior to the loss to UNC, seems improbable they would drop 9 spots
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 10:19 pm
by DocBarrister
So ...
... are Hopkins, ND, Cornell, Syracuse, and MD all in?
DocBarrister
Re: Five teams vying for last four invites
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 10:20 pm
by Wheels
JeremyCuse wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 10:07 pm
The SOS for Syracuse looks way off. SU was at 6 prior to the loss to UNC, seems improbable they would drop 9 spots
Looks like Maryland's fell 2 spots from this morning to this afternoon.
Re: Five teams vying for last four invites
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 10:21 pm
by JeremyCuse
Wheels wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 10:20 pm
JeremyCuse wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 10:07 pm
The SOS for Syracuse looks way off. SU was at 6 prior to the loss to UNC, seems improbable they would drop 9 spots
Looks like Maryland's fell 2 spots from this morning to this afternoon.
Lax Magazine has SUs SOS at 8.
Re: Five teams vying for last four invites
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 10:23 pm
by Wheels
JeremyCuse wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 10:21 pm
Wheels wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 10:20 pm
JeremyCuse wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 10:07 pm
The SOS for Syracuse looks way off. SU was at 6 prior to the loss to UNC, seems improbable they would drop 9 spots
Looks like Maryland's fell 2 spots from this morning to this afternoon.
Lax Magazine has SUs SOS at 8.
Yeah. They've got Maryland's at 6. So...I'm with you...¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Re: Five teams vying for last four invites
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 10:24 pm
by JeremyCuse
Wheels wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 10:23 pm
JeremyCuse wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 10:21 pm
Wheels wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 10:20 pm
JeremyCuse wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 10:07 pm
The SOS for Syracuse looks way off. SU was at 6 prior to the loss to UNC, seems improbable they would drop 9 spots
Looks like Maryland's fell 2 spots from this morning to this afternoon.
Lax Magazine has SUs SOS at 8.
Yeah. They've got Maryland's at 6. So...I'm with you...¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Whole thing is a mess. NCAA would do well to add 1 more at large team.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 10:27 pm
by DMac
DocBarrister wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 10:19 pm
So ...
... are Hopkins, ND, Cornell, Syracuse, and MD all in?
DocBarrister
For Cuse that's a yes.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 10:33 pm
by HopFan16
DocBarrister wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 10:19 pm
So ...
... are Hopkins, ND, Cornell, Syracuse, and MD all in?
DocBarrister
One of those teams has to be out. UVA, Duke, Loyola, and the Ivy loser (Penn or Yale) are locks. So there are only four spots left for those five teams you listed. I think Cornell will be the team left out, but others disagree.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 10:34 pm
by 10stone5
If it comes down to head to head
then Cornell is out.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 10:37 pm
by laxfan1313
10stone5 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 10:34 pm
If it comes down to head to head
then Cornell is out.
Not if between Cornell & Notre Dame.