LaxPower Back-Up Stick

crazyhorse wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 6:16 pm I tried. Hard to refute your statement if flawed calculations don't matter.

crazyhorse wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 6:16 pm I tried. Hard to refute your statement if calculations don't matter.

crazyhorse wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 5:30 pm Final fun fact: 8 of 9 ACC schools have a SOS in the top 20. #8 is first year program Pitt at 19.

laxagainsthumanity wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 6:39 pm

crazyhorse wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 6:16 pm I tried. Hard to refute your statement if calculations don't matter.

Not worth it. He either is intentionally obtuse or unintentionally obtuse. Or just doesn't read what others write. Not sure which.

OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 6:03 pm

crazyhorse wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 5:30 pm Been away for most of the weekend - feel like this one was directed at me, so let me try to explain SOS again. These were my guesses from last week on how SOS might shake out:

As for the others in the "middle" of the SOS pack that you asked about, I did a cursory look at average winning percentages of who each team has played and who they have left. My best guesses on SOS trends:
Stony Brook - 5 conference games left - SOS could fall from 15 to 25 and be in the same ballpark as Duke.
James Madison - may see a modest drop from 6 to say 10.
Florida - should stay about the same at 5, maybe drop to 8ish. Remaining teams have decent winning percentages overall.
Loyola - believe it or not, there's may improve. Still have to play Army and Navy have really good records.

Borrowing from inthe8m's post from this morning on updated SOS:
Florida SOS went from 4 to 5. Still on track to finish around 8ish in my estimation.
JMU went from 7 to 9. Still on track to finish around 10.
Stony Brook SOS went from 15 to 20. Still on track to fall to 25ish and be in same ballpark as Duke.
Loyola stayed at 35. Playing Army didn't hurt cuz Army has a good winning pct.
Duke dropped from 37 to 38. A lot of the teams they have played lost yesterday so avg winning pct likely stayed flat.

I'm simply trying again to essplain to you how SOS works. Your contention that these 5 schools will end up with similar SOS is incorrect. Their schedule does not balance out with the others. Loyola, yes. Stony Brook, maybe. JMU and Florida, definitely not.

All that said, great win for Duke yesterday. It was the significant win they lacked and gives them a puncher's chance of sneaking onto the seed line though still may be tough cuz their RPI only went up to 11.

Final fun fact: 8 of 9 ACC schools have a SOS in the top 20. #8 is first year program Pitt at 19.

My theory about the schedules of the aforementioned teams does not need SOS/RPI equations to make it viable. As I have stated on numerous occasions--the RPI metric is flawed. NCAA D1 men's basketball tossed it out with the trash in 2018. The SOS equation is also flawed. Anyone pointing to either and saying "this is conclusive" is missing the common sense eye test component. But even with these two flawed equations being brought into the conversation, they still prove my point – namely, that Duke is in the mix with these other teams when it comes to the similarity, and by extension strength, of their schedule.

OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 11:05 am Bear in mind that the RPI/SOS has yet to be tallied for Duke’s upcoming games versus Boston College and North Carolina. (Nor have these other teams finished playing their in-conference cupcakes.) When those games have been played, rest assured Duke’s schedule will be right there with the rest of these teams.

OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 6:19 pm

crazyhorse wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 6:16 pm I tried. Hard to refute your statement if flawed calculations don't matter.

Fixed that for you.

wlaxphan20 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 7:46 pm

OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 6:03 pm

crazyhorse wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 5:30 pm Been away for most of the weekend - feel like this one was directed at me, so let me try to explain SOS again. These were my guesses from last week on how SOS might shake out:

As for the others in the "middle" of the SOS pack that you asked about, I did a cursory look at average winning percentages of who each team has played and who they have left. My best guesses on SOS trends:
Stony Brook - 5 conference games left - SOS could fall from 15 to 25 and be in the same ballpark as Duke.
James Madison - may see a modest drop from 6 to say 10.
Florida - should stay about the same at 5, maybe drop to 8ish. Remaining teams have decent winning percentages overall.
Loyola - believe it or not, there's may improve. Still have to play Army and Navy have really good records.

Borrowing from inthe8m's post from this morning on updated SOS:
Florida SOS went from 4 to 5. Still on track to finish around 8ish in my estimation.
JMU went from 7 to 9. Still on track to finish around 10.
Stony Brook SOS went from 15 to 20. Still on track to fall to 25ish and be in same ballpark as Duke.
Loyola stayed at 35. Playing Army didn't hurt cuz Army has a good winning pct.
Duke dropped from 37 to 38. A lot of the teams they have played lost yesterday so avg winning pct likely stayed flat.

I'm simply trying again to essplain to you how SOS works. Your contention that these 5 schools will end up with similar SOS is incorrect. Their schedule does not balance out with the others. Loyola, yes. Stony Brook, maybe. JMU and Florida, definitely not.

All that said, great win for Duke yesterday. It was the significant win they lacked and gives them a puncher's chance of sneaking onto the seed line though still may be tough cuz their RPI only went up to 11.

Final fun fact: 8 of 9 ACC schools have a SOS in the top 20. #8 is first year program Pitt at 19.

My theory about the schedules of the aforementioned teams does not need SOS/RPI equations to make it viable. As I have stated on numerous occasions--the RPI metric is flawed. NCAA D1 men's basketball tossed it out with the trash in 2018. The SOS equation is also flawed. Anyone pointing to either and saying "this is conclusive" is missing the common sense eye test component. But even with these two flawed equations being brought into the conversation, they still prove my point – namely, that Duke is in the mix with these other teams when it comes to the similarity, and by extension strength, of their schedule.

Your theory was stated in response to posts about RPI & SOS, and to me, it sure does sound like your theory involved calculating RPI & SOS.

OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 11:05 am Bear in mind that the RPI/SOS has yet to be tallied for Duke’s upcoming games versus Boston College and North Carolina. (Nor have these other teams finished playing their in-conference cupcakes.) When those games have been played, rest assured Duke’s schedule will be right there with the rest of these teams.

You then asked if someone could "essplain the math to me again about these SOS's and RPI'ses and it's too late in the season. Tell me again how much better the SOS and/or RPI will be for these other teams who all dominated the unranked, marginal-to-cupcake teams they toyed with today than it will be for Duke, and how Duke's schedule won't balance out with theirs." Which to me sounds like you're still talking about Duke within the context of calculated RPI & SOS. Just because someone understands it, and has taken the time to explain it, does not mean they agree with it - and in fact, several have even stated they don't. Also, just because Duke happened to play BC on a day where JMU/SBU/Florida/Loyola played weaker teams, it very much does not show the full picture of an entire season. You cannot possibly draw conclusions like that about each teams strength of schedule based on one day of games.

So there's your first statement, clearly discussing how Duke's remaining games will be calculated into their RPI/SOS. Then there's your second, asking RPI and SOS to be explained to you & stating that somehow games that took place on one day are representative of an entire season's schedule. To counter that your theory "does not need SOS/RPI equations to make it viable" is, IMO, moving the goal posts. No one on here has stated that RPI is the perfect, conclusive ranking method. I think everyone else on the forum is very well aware of what exactly RPI tells us and what it fails to acknowledge. It is what it is, and it is just one of several tools the selection committee uses. Yes, M&W basketball no longer use it, but baseball, softball, volleyball, soccer, and lacrosse still do.

There are 358 D1 Mens BB programs, and only 117 D1 wlax. Personally, I don't think there are enough D1 women's lacrosse teams to seriously manipulate RPI to the point that the Missouri Valley Conference did. With only 117 it's much more difficult to hide.

crazyhorse wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 7:50 pm

wlaxphan20 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 7:46 pm

OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 6:03 pm

crazyhorse wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 5:30 pm Been away for most of the weekend - feel like this one was directed at me, so let me try to explain SOS again. These were my guesses from last week on how SOS might shake out:

As for the others in the "middle" of the SOS pack that you asked about, I did a cursory look at average winning percentages of who each team has played and who they have left. My best guesses on SOS trends:
Stony Brook - 5 conference games left - SOS could fall from 15 to 25 and be in the same ballpark as Duke.
James Madison - may see a modest drop from 6 to say 10.
Florida - should stay about the same at 5, maybe drop to 8ish. Remaining teams have decent winning percentages overall.
Loyola - believe it or not, there's may improve. Still have to play Army and Navy have really good records.

Borrowing from inthe8m's post from this morning on updated SOS:
Florida SOS went from 4 to 5. Still on track to finish around 8ish in my estimation.
JMU went from 7 to 9. Still on track to finish around 10.
Stony Brook SOS went from 15 to 20. Still on track to fall to 25ish and be in same ballpark as Duke.
Loyola stayed at 35. Playing Army didn't hurt cuz Army has a good winning pct.
Duke dropped from 37 to 38. A lot of the teams they have played lost yesterday so avg winning pct likely stayed flat.

I'm simply trying again to essplain to you how SOS works. Your contention that these 5 schools will end up with similar SOS is incorrect. Their schedule does not balance out with the others. Loyola, yes. Stony Brook, maybe. JMU and Florida, definitely not.

All that said, great win for Duke yesterday. It was the significant win they lacked and gives them a puncher's chance of sneaking onto the seed line though still may be tough cuz their RPI only went up to 11.

Final fun fact: 8 of 9 ACC schools have a SOS in the top 20. #8 is first year program Pitt at 19.

My theory about the schedules of the aforementioned teams does not need SOS/RPI equations to make it viable. As I have stated on numerous occasions--the RPI metric is flawed. NCAA D1 men's basketball tossed it out with the trash in 2018. The SOS equation is also flawed. Anyone pointing to either and saying "this is conclusive" is missing the common sense eye test component. But even with these two flawed equations being brought into the conversation, they still prove my point – namely, that Duke is in the mix with these other teams when it comes to the similarity, and by extension strength, of their schedule.

Your theory was stated in response to posts about RPI & SOS, and to me, it sure does sound like your theory involved calculating RPI & SOS.

OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 11:05 am Bear in mind that the RPI/SOS has yet to be tallied for Duke’s upcoming games versus Boston College and North Carolina. (Nor have these other teams finished playing their in-conference cupcakes.) When those games have been played, rest assured Duke’s schedule will be right there with the rest of these teams.

You then asked if someone could "essplain the math to me again about these SOS's and RPI'ses and it's too late in the season. Tell me again how much better the SOS and/or RPI will be for these other teams who all dominated the unranked, marginal-to-cupcake teams they toyed with today than it will be for Duke, and how Duke's schedule won't balance out with theirs." Which to me sounds like you're still talking about Duke within the context of calculated RPI & SOS. Just because someone understands it, and has taken the time to explain it, does not mean they agree with it - and in fact, several have even stated they don't. Also, just because Duke happened to play BC on a day where JMU/SBU/Florida/Loyola played weaker teams, it very much does not show the full picture of an entire season. You cannot possibly draw conclusions like that about each teams strength of schedule based on one day of games.

So there's your first statement, clearly discussing how Duke's remaining games will be calculated into their RPI/SOS. Then there's your second, asking RPI and SOS to be explained to you & stating that somehow games that took place on one day are representative of an entire season's schedule. To counter that your theory "does not need SOS/RPI equations to make it viable" is, IMO, moving the goal posts. No one on here has stated that RPI is the perfect, conclusive ranking method. I think everyone else on the forum is very well aware of what exactly RPI tells us and what it fails to acknowledge. It is what it is, and it is just one of several tools the selection committee uses. Yes, M&W basketball no longer use it, but baseball, softball, volleyball, soccer, and lacrosse still do.

There are 358 D1 Mens BB programs, and only 117 D1 wlax. Personally, I don't think there are enough D1 women's lacrosse teams to seriously manipulate RPI to the point that the Missouri Valley Conference did. With only 117 it's much more difficult to hide.

Well said - moving the goal posts. I was going to say "deny and deflect".

laxagainsthumanity wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 4:35 pm

OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 7:29 am Just for the record, I don’t like that Duke chose cupcakes for the out of conference portion of their schedule. There is nothing noble about their ulterior motives in doing so. And for full disclosure--I'm rooting against them the rest of the way. North Carolina is not one of my favorite teams and I usually root against them—but I’ll be all gussied up in powder blue yelling Tar! HEELS!! come Thursday night.

It shouldn’t pay to avoid tough out of conference opponents so that you have more gas left in the tank for the big games against tougher opponents you are compelled to play in your own conference, and by extension, the postseason.

Yes, for all intents and purposes Duke's schedule is as tough as Stony Brook’s, JMU’s, Florida’s and Loyola’s. But it doesn’t excuse the intent. There are still players on the team that I enjoy watching and will continue to root for. But the team as a whole? They are now on my...ahem, Root Against list for the rest of '22. (And I know Doc’ll be right there with me ).

Truly a man of principle.

I think Duke was hampered by some budget-related travel constraints and expected a better year for the ACC. I don't think their schedule looked quite how they would have liked. And I can promise you that a ~25-year head coach understands the value of being battle-tested. IMO I think it's a bit ridiculous to read some malicious intent into this scheduling - what do you think they were trying to do? Cheat their way to the Final Four? Did they lie about something? All they did was guarantee finishing above .500 despite expecting 3-5 conference losses. If you want to say this schedule doesn't deserve a seed, fine, you can certainly argue that. Absolutely. They played it very safe while others did not. But any moral judgment based on SOS is absurd.

Mrs@inthe8m wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 9:35 pm

laxagainsthumanity wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 4:35 pm I think Duke was hampered by some budget-related travel constraints and expected a better year for the ACC. I don't think their schedule looked quite how they would have liked. And I can promise you that a ~25-year head coach understands the value of being battle-tested. IMO I think it's a bit ridiculous to read some malicious intent into this scheduling - what do you think they were trying to do? Cheat their way to the Final Four? Did they lie about something? All they did was guarantee finishing above .500 despite expecting 3-5 conference losses. If you want to say this schedule doesn't deserve a seed, fine, you can certainly argue that. Absolutely. They played it very safe while others did not. But any moral judgment based on SOS is absurd.

Serious question, was the men's team given a larger travel budget? That's not a good look if true given this is Duke we are talking about. You'd think they'd have the resources and desire to treat the men's and women's programs equally. Duke MLAX and WLAX both traveled to South Bend and Syracuse for conference games. Other than that, WLAX no further than a few hours but MLAX traveled to DC, Bmore and NY. I don't care who Duke schedules OOC or the reasons why, but I don't want to see a repeat of last year where they were seeded with a 9-6 record over a more deserving Loyola team.

JoeMauer89 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 8:41 pm

OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 8:08 pm

We're sitting here like a couple of guys....

OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 5:52 am

JoeMauer89 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 8:41 pm

OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 8:08 pm

We're sitting here like a couple of guys....

Is this a quote from the movie, Joe? If so--what part? After the helicopter goes down?

JoeMauer89 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 8:47 am

OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 5:52 am

JoeMauer89 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 8:41 pm

OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 8:08 pm

We're sitting here like a couple of guys....

Is this a quote from the movie, Joe? If so--what part? After the helicopter goes down?

ONW,

It's from Heat, when De Niro and Pacino meet for the first time.


Joe

OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 1:36 pm

Well, well, well. I discovered something about happy crappy SOS today that convinces me beyond all shadow of a doubt that the formula is...how does DMac say it?—oh yes, Horseschidt. I said RPI belongs in the trash? SOS should be flushed down the toilet.

Full disclosure later...

wlaxphan20 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 1:42 pm

OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 1:36 pm

Well, well, well. I discovered something about happy crappy SOS today that convinces me beyond all shadow of a doubt that the formula is...how does DMac say it?—oh yes, Horseschidt. I said RPI belongs in the trash? SOS should be flushed down the toilet.

Full disclosure later...

Again...no one disagreed with you that the meaningfulness of RPI/SOS is faulty. They disagreed with your predictions about the results of the calculations themselves. Talk about missing an obvious point.

wlaxphan20 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 1:42 pm

OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 1:36 pm Well, well, well. I discovered something about happy crappy SOS today that convinces me beyond all shadow of a doubt that the formula is...how does DMac say it?—oh yes, Horseschidt. I said RPI belongs in the trash? SOS should be flushed down the toilet.

Full disclosure later...

Again...no one disagreed with you that the meaningfulness of RPI/SOS is faulty. They disagreed with your predictions about the results of the calculations themselves. Talk about missing an obvious point.