LaxPower Back-Up Stick

Nyhoo wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 12:24 pm If loyola loses tonight, why would they be in line for an at large? They havent won a big game since february.

If Army beats Loyola (and there is a 20% chance of that happening), Loyola would move:

RPI: 6th to 8th
Strength of Record: 5th to 8th

With a loss, they'd still have a top-5 RPI win and a top-10 RPI win.

Whatever you think of RPI, their resume would still be the 8th strongest resume in the nation. (And I think SOR is a better way to look at a team's holistic season than RPI).

Now, as far as getting a home game, that is much more in jeopardy should they lose tonight. In simulations where they lose to Army, they only get a home game in 79% of them. If they want to start their tournament at Ridley, they better win tonight.

But even with a loss, the Greyhounds are still an at-large team, whether you stick with RPI or want to look more holistically.

Agreed that Loyola is safe no matter what.

The teams that I think should be worried about Towson/Loyola not winning AQs are, roughly in order from least worried to most worried:
Maryland
Towson/Cornell

The other 6-7 teams in the at-large discussion are absolute locks. The 4 ACC schools, JHU/PSU loser, Yale/Penn loser (or both if Cornell wins the AQ).

I think a Towson loss to Drexel could end up making them sweat, and a close comparison with Cornell is not what they want.

Nyhoo wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 12:24 pm If loyola loses tonight, why would they be in line for an at large? They havent won a big game since february.

you're kidding right??? We won 3 big games in February, beat a decent Georgetown team in April, Beat a streaking Lehigh team that looked good in terms of RPI, beat a good, tough army team as another top 20 RPI win. The hopkins win is now a top 10 RPI win.

Hawkeye wrote: ↑Thu May 02, 2019 10:50 pm At-larges are set if Towson and Loyola win their leagues.

(And anyone but Brown in the Ivy League... this one seems likely.)

ACC - 4 (UVA, Duke, Notre Dame, Syracuse)
B1G - 2 (PSU/JHU loser, Maryland)
Ivy - 2 (Two of: Penn/Yale/Cornell)

So you're suggesting that if Cornell wins the ILT, Yale or Penn are out?

ICGrad wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 1:49 pm

Hawkeye wrote: ↑Thu May 02, 2019 10:50 pm At-larges are set if Towson and Loyola win their leagues.

(And anyone but Brown in the Ivy League... this one seems likely.)

ACC - 4 (UVA, Duke, Notre Dame, Syracuse)
B1G - 2 (PSU/JHU loser, Maryland)
Ivy - 2 (Two of: Penn/Yale/Cornell)

So you're suggesting that if Cornell wins the ILT, Yale or Penn are out?

No he's just counting at-large bids, aka the teams that will make the tournament outside of each conference tournament winner. If Cornell wins ILT, all three are in. 2 as at-larges (Penn and Yale) and 1 as the AQ (Cornell).

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 2:09 pm
No he's just counting at-large bids, aka the teams that will make the tournament outside of each conference tournament winner. If Cornell wins ILT, all three are in. 2 as at-larges (Penn and Yale) and 1 as the AQ (Cornell).

Ah, ok. Thanks for the clarification; that makes sense.

Hawkeye wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 12:39 pm Agreed that Loyola is safe no matter what.

The teams that I think should be worried about Towson/Loyola not winning AQs are, roughly in order from least worried to most worried:
Maryland
Towson/Cornell

The other 6-7 teams in the at-large discussion are absolute locks. The 4 ACC schools, JHU/PSU loser, Yale/Penn loser (or both if Cornell wins the AQ).

I think a Towson loss to Drexel could end up making them sweat, and a close comparison with Cornell is not what they want.

I think you're spot on regarding Towson...the CAA losses and just Hop and Loy as big wins makes it razor close for the Tigers.

laxreference wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 12:34 pmI think SOR is a better way to look at a team's holistic season than RPI).

Is SOR broken-down, game by game or is it calculated cumulatively. e.g. RPI is cumulative. Obviously each game counts but is SOR able to say, Duke received X Points against Syracuse.

Towson needs to win to get in. all the ALs are taken.

admin wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 3:10 pm Towson needs to win to get in. all the ALs are taken.

I don't completely agree yet, but I'm starting to feel like this may be true. Will report back at about 10:30 tonight with an update on this feeling. Hmmm.

Hawk, what's the (possible) scenario where it's not UMD, JHU, Loyola, Cornell, SU, Towson (if, and only if, they win), etc.?

admin wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 3:30 pm Hawk, what's the (possible) scenario where it's not UMD, JHU, Loyola, Cornell, SU, Towson (if, and only if, they win), etc.?

If Towson loses to Drexel, and Cornell loses tonight to Yale, I think it comes down to what the committee values more - numbers or head-to-head, and how large the gap in the numbers between Towson and Cornell turn out to be. I think Towson would end up ahead in RPI still, but Cornell would have the stronger schedule and the head-to-head.

I would personally lean toward Cornell here, but I'm not on the committee... I think they would pretty clearly be the last two teams in line for one spot - assuming of course that Loyola wins the PLT - and I think this will be the debate that the committee would be having on Sunday.

This is rough because I didn't input any other results.

Towson's RPI will drop from 6 to 10 with a loss to Drexel, and Cornell's will remain at 12 with a loss to Yale. Maryland would finish between them.

The results of other games could change these numbers slightly, but Towson would be ahead in what is thought to be the most important metric, with Cornell having other metrics in its favor.

If Cornell wins and Towson loses, Maryland is out unless Im missing something. Or Cuse?

PSU/Hop, Virginia, Duke, Yale, Penn, Hopkins, Notre Dame, Syracuse

hens62 wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 3:39 pm If Cornell wins and Towson loses, Maryland is out unless Im missing something. Or Cuse?

PSU/Hop, Virginia, Duke, Yale, Penn, Hopkins, Notre Dame, Syracuse

You counted Hopkins twice. Maryland would still most likely be in. Maybe the last spot.

Hawkeye wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 3:41 pm
You counted Hopkins twice. Maryland would still most likely be in. Maybe the last spot.

Running myself in circles... thanks

Would love to see a Maryland @ Loyola or Maryland @ Towson first round matchup since those teams apparently refuse to schedule each other in the regular season despite the close proximity.

Could also see Hop getting sent to Loyola but I'd rather not face Pat Spencer again in his final NCAA tournament, thank you very much.

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 3:43 pm Would love to see a Maryland @ Loyola or Maryland @ Towson first round matchup since those teams apparently refuse to schedule each other in the regular season despite the close proximity.

Could also see Hop getting sent to Loyola but I'd rather not face Pat Spencer again in his final NCAA tournament, thank you very much.

Now that we know Petro has learned how to coach against Maryland by reading this board, let me add my advice: If the Jays double Spencer the way they did Bernhardt, Spencer could have a dozen assists. I vote Foley plays him tight, and would be happy to hold Spencer to a hat trick and a couple of assists.

1 - Penn St vs NEC/MAAC/AE winner
2 - Virginia vs NEC/AE winner
3 - Duke vs High Point
4 - Penn vs Cornell
5 - Yale vs Syracuse
6 - Loyola vs Maryland
7 - Notre Dame vs Denver
8 - Hopkins vs Towson

Early prediction... some good rematches, would love to see Yale/Cuse round 3

hens62 wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 3:50 pm 1 - Penn St vs NEC/MAAC/AE winner
2 - Virginia vs NEC/AE winner
3 - Duke vs High Point
4 - Penn vs Cornell
5 - Yale vs Syracuse
6 - Loyola vs Maryland
7 - Notre Dame vs Denver
8 - Hopkins vs Towson

Early prediction... some good rematches, would love to see Yale/Cuse round 3

Might switch Cornell and Maryland as they're not going to pit two Ivy league teams against eachother in the first round. Otherwise looks pretty good to me.