@inthe8m wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:40 pm
Of course, we are in Q4 of the season and SOS and RPI are pretty much set other than some minor adjustments. It is not as if someone is going to jump 20 spots in SOS or RPI at this point.
20 spots is your number. You’re honestly telling me that Duke stays where they are even after playing #2 BC and #1 NC?
My assertion is they’ll move up closer to the middle of the pack after the regular season comes to a close.
@inthe8m wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:28 pm
I am pretty sure most of us are just talking about the SOS that is used by the tournament committee. Not poppycock stuff like the FanLax Computer poll.
You correctly referred to SOS initially, which is what my original post addressed. But if you want to talk RPI, the current rankings have Duke ahead of Loyola and close to the rest of the pack in the top 15 or so.
I was referring to SOS and any reference to RPI was inadvertent (I believe Dr Tact also meant that Duke's SOS could drop a bit if they lose both games to BC and UNC).
@inthe8m wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:28 pm
I am pretty sure most of us are just talking about the SOS that is used by the tournament committee. Not poppycock stuff like the FanLax Computer poll.
You correctly referred to SOS initially, which is what my original post addressed. But if you want to talk RPI, the current rankings have Duke ahead of Loyola and close to the rest of the pack in the top 15 or so.
I was referring to SOS and any reference to RPI was inadvertent (I believe Dr Tact also meant that Duke's SOS could drop a bit if they lose both games to BC and UNC).
RPI in my mind is stoopid. 25% on your winning percentage, 50% on your opponents' winning percentage and 25% on the Opponents' opponents' winning percentage. Nothing beats the eye test for me in the top 10-15.
Re: Duke
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:06 pm
by OuttaNowhereWregget
Dr. Tact wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:59 pm
RPI in my mind is stoopid. 25% on your winning percentage, 50% on your opponents' winning percentage and 25% on the Opponents' opponents' winning percentage. Nothing beats the eye test for me in the top 10-15.
Re: Duke
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:07 pm
by FanLax Computer
D1 Women's SOS *thus far this season*:
SOS Team
1 Syracuse
2 Northwestern
3 Princeton
4 Notre Dame
5 James Madison
6 Penn
7 Virginia
8 North Carolina
9 Johns Hopkins
10 Penn State
11 Arizona State
12 Boston College
13 Stony Brook
14 Rutgers
15 California
16 Towson
17 Stanford
18 Maryland
19 Louisville
20 Loyola
21 Virginia Tech
22 USC
23 Denver
24 Harvard
25 Michigan
26 Florida
27 Yale
28 Delaware
29 Drexel
30 San Diego State
31 Cornell
32 Colorado
33 Temple
34 Vanderbilt
35 Brown
35 UC Davis
37 Ohio State
38 Hofstra
39 Dartmouth
40 Pitt
41 Georgetown
42 Jacksonville
43 Duke
44 Elon
45 Villanova
46 Oregon
47 Saint Joseph's
48 UAlbany
49 Lehigh
50 UConn
51 High Point
52 Boston University
53 Colgate
54 William and Mary
55 Columbia
56 Furman
57 Holy Cross
58 Marquette
58 UMass Lowell
60 Cincinnati
61 Binghamton
62 UMass
63 Army
64 Duquesne
65 Marist
66 Richmond
67 Coastal Carolina
68 Fairfield
69 VCU
70 Lafayette
71 Liberty
72 George Mason
73 New Hampshire
74 Mount St Mary's
75 George Washington
76 Niagara
77 Vermont
78 Siena
79 UMBC
80 Navy
81 Quinnipiac
82 East Carolina
83 Wagner
84 Mercer
85 Monmouth
86 La Salle
87 Stetson
88 Bucknell
89 LIU
90 Old Dominion
91 Radford
92 American
92 Butler
94 Sacred Heart
95 Davidson
96 Bryant
97 Winthrop
98 Canisius
99 Manhattan
100 Kennesaw State
101 Detroit Mercy
102 Central Michigan
103 Wofford
104 Merrimack
105 Central Connecticut
106 Saint Bonaventure
107 Campbell
108 Iona
108 Robert Morris
110 Gardner-Webb
111 Longwood
112 Presbyterian
113 Howard
114 Delaware State
115 Youngstown State
116 Kent State
117 Akron
118 Saint Francis
Re: Duke
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:09 pm
by OuttaNowhereWregget
FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:07 pm
D1 Women's SOS *thus far this season*:
SOS Team
1 Syracuse
2 Northwestern
3 Princeton
4 Notre Dame
5 James Madison
6 Penn
7 Virginia
8 North Carolina
9 Johns Hopkins
10 Penn State
11 Arizona State
12 Boston College
13 Stony Brook
14 Rutgers
15 California
16 Towson
17 Stanford
18 Maryland
19 Louisville
20 Loyola
21 Virginia Tech
22 USC
23 Denver
24 Harvard
25 Michigan
26 Florida
27 Yale
28 Delaware
29 Drexel
30 San Diego State
31 Cornell
32 Colorado
33 Temple
34 Vanderbilt
35 Brown
35 UC Davis
37 Ohio State
38 Hofstra
39 Dartmouth
40 Pitt
41 Georgetown
42 Jacksonville
43 Duke
44 Elon
45 Villanova
46 Oregon
47 Saint Joseph's
48 UAlbany
49 Lehigh
50 UConn
51 High Point
52 Boston University
53 Colgate
54 William and Mary
55 Columbia
56 Furman
57 Holy Cross
58 Marquette
58 UMass Lowell
60 Cincinnati
61 Binghamton
62 UMass
63 Army
64 Duquesne
65 Marist
66 Richmond
67 Coastal Carolina
68 Fairfield
69 VCU
70 Lafayette
71 Liberty
72 George Mason
73 New Hampshire
74 Mount St Mary's
75 George Washington
76 Niagara
77 Vermont
78 Siena
79 UMBC
80 Navy
81 Quinnipiac
82 East Carolina
83 Wagner
84 Mercer
85 Monmouth
86 La Salle
87 Stetson
88 Bucknell
89 LIU
90 Old Dominion
91 Radford
92 American
92 Butler
94 Sacred Heart
95 Davidson
96 Bryant
97 Winthrop
98 Canisius
99 Manhattan
100 Kennesaw State
101 Detroit Mercy
102 Central Michigan
103 Wofford
104 Merrimack
105 Central Connecticut
106 Saint Bonaventure
107 Campbell
108 Iona
108 Robert Morris
110 Gardner-Webb
111 Longwood
112 Presbyterian
113 Howard
114 Delaware State
115 Youngstown State
116 Kent State
117 Akron
118 Saint Francis
Do you anticipate a move up here for Duke after playing BC and NC?
FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:07 pm
D1 Women's SOS *thus far this season*:
SOS Team
1 Syracuse
2 Northwestern
3 Princeton
4 Notre Dame
5 James Madison
6 Penn
7 Virginia
8 North Carolina
9 Johns Hopkins
10 Penn State
11 Arizona State
12 Boston College
13 Stony Brook
14 Rutgers
15 California
16 Towson
17 Stanford
18 Maryland
19 Louisville
20 Loyola
21 Virginia Tech
22 USC
23 Denver
24 Harvard
25 Michigan
26 Florida
27 Yale
28 Delaware
29 Drexel
30 San Diego State
31 Cornell
32 Colorado
33 Temple
34 Vanderbilt
35 Brown
35 UC Davis
37 Ohio State
38 Hofstra
39 Dartmouth
40 Pitt
41 Georgetown
42 Jacksonville
43 Duke
44 Elon
45 Villanova
46 Oregon
47 Saint Joseph's
48 UAlbany
49 Lehigh
50 UConn
51 High Point
52 Boston University
53 Colgate
54 William and Mary
55 Columbia
56 Furman
57 Holy Cross
58 Marquette
58 UMass Lowell
60 Cincinnati
61 Binghamton
62 UMass
63 Army
64 Duquesne
65 Marist
66 Richmond
67 Coastal Carolina
68 Fairfield
69 VCU
70 Lafayette
71 Liberty
72 George Mason
73 New Hampshire
74 Mount St Mary's
75 George Washington
76 Niagara
77 Vermont
78 Siena
79 UMBC
80 Navy
81 Quinnipiac
82 East Carolina
83 Wagner
84 Mercer
85 Monmouth
86 La Salle
87 Stetson
88 Bucknell
89 LIU
90 Old Dominion
91 Radford
92 American
92 Butler
94 Sacred Heart
95 Davidson
96 Bryant
97 Winthrop
98 Canisius
99 Manhattan
100 Kennesaw State
101 Detroit Mercy
102 Central Michigan
103 Wofford
104 Merrimack
105 Central Connecticut
106 Saint Bonaventure
107 Campbell
108 Iona
108 Robert Morris
110 Gardner-Webb
111 Longwood
112 Presbyterian
113 Howard
114 Delaware State
115 Youngstown State
116 Kent State
117 Akron
118 Saint Francis
Do you anticipate a move up here for Duke after playing BC and NC?
@inthe8m wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 10:45 am
Based on this season alone, Duke's schedule does not balance out with teams like UF, SB, and JMU. Loyola ends up being somewhat limited in OOC scheduling because of the size of the Patriot League (10 teams) and Loyola's SOS is really brought down by some really bad teams in the Patriot League with RPI Ranks >90 (Colgate, Boston U, and Lafayette).
sos 0413.png
Bear in mind that the RPI/SOS has yet to be tallied for Duke’s upcoming games versus Boston College and North Carolina. (Nor have these other teams finished playing their in-conference cupcakes.) When those games have been played, rest assured Duke’s schedule will be right there with the rest of these teams.
RPI kind of makes me think of the SATs.
I always thought of mid-season RPI is pretty useless. The season needs to be over in order for all the data to be counted. Kind of like trying to make the financial reports for 2022 after only finishing Q2.
Of course, we are in Q4 of the season and SOS and RPI are pretty much set other than some minor adjustments. It is not as if someone is going to jump 20 spots in SOS or RPI at this point.
Haha yes we definitely are. I more just meant in general, RPI is talked about in February and March and it's just not really worth much at that point. And to your point - by the end of the season, for the top 30 or so teams, the numbers for OWP & OOWP all work out to be pretty similar (~0.47-0.69ish)
Re: Duke
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:22 pm
by FanLax Computer
OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:09 pm
Do you anticipate a move up here for Duke after playing BC and NC?
Of course. Play UNC, your SOS goes up. Guaranteed. This won't improve your ranking (unless you win). But strictly in terms of SOS, yup.
@inthe8m wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 10:45 am
Based on this season alone, Duke's schedule does not balance out with teams like UF, SB, and JMU. Loyola ends up being somewhat limited in OOC scheduling because of the size of the Patriot League (10 teams) and Loyola's SOS is really brought down by some really bad teams in the Patriot League with RPI Ranks >90 (Colgate, Boston U, and Lafayette).
sos 0413.png
Bear in mind that the RPI/SOS has yet to be tallied for Duke’s upcoming games versus Boston College and North Carolina. (Nor have these other teams finished playing their in-conference cupcakes.) When those games have been played, rest assured Duke’s schedule will be right there with the rest of these teams.
RPI kind of makes me think of the SATs.
I always thought of mid-season RPI is pretty useless. The season needs to be over in order for all the data to be counted. Kind of like trying to make the financial reports for 2022 after only finishing Q2.
Of course, we are in Q4 of the season and SOS and RPI are pretty much set other than some minor adjustments. It is not as if someone is going to jump 20 spots in SOS or RPI at this point.
Haha yes we definitely are. I more just meant in general, RPI is talked about in February and March and it's just not really worth much at that point. And to your point - by the end of the season, for the top 30 or so teams, the numbers for OWP & OOWP all work out to be pretty similar (~0.47-0.69ish)
Agree 100% - the early season RPI talk is meaningless which is why it is such great msg board fodder.
OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:09 pm
Do you anticipate a move up here for Duke after playing BC and NC?
Of course. Play UNC, your SOS goes up. Guaranteed. This won't improve your ranking (unless you win). But strictly in terms of SOS, yup.
Thanks FLC. I thought it was fairly obvious as well.
Re: Duke
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:33 pm
by FanLax Computer
OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:28 pm
Thanks FLC. I thought it was fairly obvious as well.
Re: Duke
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 3:11 pm
by crazyhorse
Interesting afternoon - looks like the critique of Duke's OOC schedule has devolved into trying to project SOS.
I happen to be of those odd ducks that love math - it's why I took a stab at bracketology when I had some free time the other night.
Whoever said RPI math is straight forward is correct. There's nothing "mechuginous" about it.
25% of your winning percentage + 50% of the average of your opponents' winning percentages + 25% of opponents' opponents' WPs. It's just math.
Someone also said RPIs and SOSs are pretty much baked in at this point. I would agree with this as well. In the case of Duke, they've played 88% of their regular season schedule. Will playing UNC, with a winning % of 1.000, and BC, with a winning % of .933 improve their SOS? Most definitely. Will it move their SOS from the 30s up to the level of Florida, JMU, and Stony Brook? The "middle of the pack" with SOSs between 4 and 15 according to the post that set off this whole discussion? No way. I would guess you get a 5-8 point bump, not a 20 point bump in the SOS ranking. Offsetting that for RPI purposes would be that the 25% weight for your own winning percentage drops as you go from 14-1 to 14-3.
A friendly little gentleman's bet - if Duke does in fact lose to BC and UNC, their RPI will basically be unchanged, dropping from 13 to 14 or 15. Any takers?
OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:28 pm
Thanks FLC. I thought it was fairly obvious as well.
Re: Duke
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 3:50 pm
by OuttaNowhereWregget
crazyhorse wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 3:11 pm
Interesting afternoon - looks like the critique of Duke's OOC schedule has devolved into trying to project SOS.
I happen to be of those odd ducks that love math - it's why I took a stab at bracketology when I had some free time the other night.
Whoever said RPI math is straight forward is correct. There's nothing "mechuginous" about it.
25% of your winning percentage + 50% of the average of your opponents' winning percentages + 25% of opponents' opponents' WPs. It's just math.
Someone also said RPIs and SOSs are pretty much baked in at this point. I would agree with this as well. In the case of Duke, they've played 88% of their regular season schedule. Will playing UNC, with a winning % of 1.000, and BC, with a winning % of .933 improve their SOS? Most definitely. Will it move their SOS from the 30s up to the level of Florida, JMU, and Stony Brook? The "middle of the pack" with SOSs between 4 and 15 according to the post that set off this whole discussion? No way. I would guess you get a 5-8 point bump, not a 20 point bump in the SOS ranking. Offsetting that for RPI purposes would be that the 25% weight for your own winning percentage drops as you go from 14-1 to 14-3.
A friendly little gentleman's bet - if Duke does in fact lose to BC and UNC, their RPI will basically be unchanged, dropping from 13 to 14 or 15. Any takers?
Will Stony Brook, Loyola, JMU and Florida dip down in SOS after conference play vs weak opponents?
Re: Duke
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 4:15 pm
by OuttaNowhereWregget
“Straightforward math“ is a trite explanation for what RPI is as it relates to this discussion. What Doc and I take issue with are the elements which make up the RPI equation. They are weighted disproportionately.
Re: Duke
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 5:09 pm
by crazyhorse
The formula is what it is. I don't agree with it either, but that doesn't mean the math isn't straight forward.
I am on the record as stating, for instance, that Loyola is better than their RPI of 14 would suggest. Conversely, I don't think a team like Temple is as good as their RPI of 16. Unfortunately, the committee does lean pretty heavily on RPI when we can all agree more emphasis on the "eye test" might serve them well.
We used to see the same over-reliance on RPI in NCAA basketball tournament selections. I happened to hear Mike Brey, Notre Dame's coach, on the radio a few weeks back - he talked about how the selection committee moved away from RPI to this new NET ranking/quad system because it came out that the Missouri Valley Conference had figured out a way to "game the system" via their out-of-conference scheduling to consistently improve their RPI rankings. According to Brey, schools are now figuring out how to game the NET rankings - he's in favor of weighting the "eye test", or recent performance more heavily.
Which brings us full circle back to SOS. Like it or not, you know that SOS either directly or indirectly makes up 75% of your RPI "score". So if you're Duke, don't cry about your mid-teens RPI and lack of seeding consideration when all you had to do was play an OOC schedule similar to past years and you would have a top ten RPI and likely be sleeping in your own beds for the first two rounds of the tournament.
As for the others in the "middle" of the SOS pack that you asked about, I did a cursory look at average winning percentages of who each team has played and who they have left. My best guesses on SOS trends:
Stony Brook - 5 conference games left - SOS could fall from 15 to 25 and be in the same ballpark as Duke.
James Madison - may see a modest drop from 6 to say 10.
Florida - should stay about the same at 5, maybe drop to 8ish. Remaining teams have decent winning percentages overall.
Loyola - believe it or not, there's may improve. Still have to play Army and Navy have really good records.
So I'll give you Stony Brook, Loyola, and Duke being grouped in a pack but Florida and JMU should remain in a much higher SOS tier.
These are all wild ass guesses, as I don't have the inclination to project every team n the top 40's remaining schedule to see how each will absolutely be ranked - just giving you how I see the trend in the "raw" numbers for the team's being discussed.
Re: Duke
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 7:08 pm
by OuttaNowhereWregget
crazyhorse wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 5:09 pm
The formula is what it is. I don't agree with it either, but that doesn't mean the math isn't straight forward.
Whether the math is straightforward or not is irrelevant. It's a flawed measurement, which you and I evidently agree on.
crazyhorse wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 5:09 pm
I am on the record as stating, for instance, that Loyola is better than their RPI of 14 would suggest. Conversely, I don't think a team like Temple is as good as their RPI of 16. Unfortunately, the committee does lean pretty heavily on RPI when we can all agree more emphasis on the "eye test" might serve them well.
We used to see the same over-reliance on RPI in NCAA basketball tournament selections. I happened to hear Mike Brey, Notre Dame's coach, on the radio a few weeks back - he talked about how the selection committee moved away from RPI to this new NET ranking/quad system because it came out that the Missouri Valley Conference had figured out a way to "game the system" via their out-of-conference scheduling to consistently improve their RPI rankings. According to Brey, schools are now figuring out how to game the NET rankings - he's in favor of weighting the "eye test", or recent performance more heavily.
I like the sound of this. Any chance more of the NCAA will try it?
crazyhorse wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 5:09 pm
Which brings us full circle back to SOS. Like it or not, you know that SOS either directly or indirectly makes up 75% of your RPI "score". So if you're Duke, don't cry about your mid-teens RPI and lack of seeding consideration when all you had to do was play an OOC schedule similar to past years and you would have a top ten RPI and likely be sleeping in your own beds for the first two rounds of the tournament.
Agreed. Duke tried to manipulate their way to an easier time of it this year obviously. But, as I point out, disregarding intent, it looks very similar to the schedules of strong teams in weak conferences. What's the difference, if you compare the schedules objectively, they are equal parts tough opponents and cupcakes. Whether the teams are in conference or out of conference (again, disregarding intent) is irrelevant.
crazyhorse wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 5:09 pm
As for the others in the "middle" of the SOS pack that you asked about, I did a cursory look at average winning percentages of who each team has played and who they have left. My best guesses on SOS trends:
Stony Brook - 5 conference games left - SOS could fall from 15 to 25 and be in the same ballpark as Duke.
James Madison - may see a modest drop from 6 to say 10.
Florida - should stay about the same at 5, maybe drop to 8ish. Remaining teams have decent winning percentages overall.
Loyola - believe it or not, there's may improve. Still have to play Army and Navy have really good records. So I'll give you Stony Brook, Loyola, and Duke being grouped in a pack but Florida and JMU should remain in a much higher SOS tier.
Which is what I've been saying from the beginning.
crazyhorse wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 5:09 pm So I'll give you Stony Brook, Loyola, and Duke being grouped in a pack but Florida and JMU should remain in a much higher SOS tier.
Which is what I've been saying from the beginning.
I do not know if you are intentionally or unintentionally being obtuse, but that is not what you were saying from the beginning.
OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Tue Apr 12, 2022 6:26 am
It occurs to me that Duke has been unfairly criticized to a degree in the area of strength of schedule. What’s the difference between Duke and Stony Brook? Duke schedules cupcakes for their out of conference games and Stony Brook has the cupcakes built in to their in-conference games. Same is true for JMU, Florida and Loyola. Look at the other teams in these conferences where there is one dominant team and the rest of the teams marginal to weak. For all intents and purposes, what’s the difference between Duke’s schedule and Stony Brook, Loyola, JMU and Florida? In the overall assessment of schedules, Duke’s is pretty much identical to these others.
crazyhorse wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 5:09 pm So I'll give you Stony Brook, Loyola, and Duke being grouped in a pack but Florida and JMU should remain in a much higher SOS tier.
Which is what I've been saying from the beginning.
I do not know if you are intentionally or unintentionally being obtuse, but that is not what you were saying from the beginning.
OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Tue Apr 12, 2022 6:26 am
It occurs to me that Duke has been unfairly criticized to a degree in the area of strength of schedule. What’s the difference between Duke and Stony Brook? Duke schedules cupcakes for their out of conference games and Stony Brook has the cupcakes built in to their in-conference games. Same is true for JMU, Florida and Loyola. Look at the other teams in these conferences where there is one dominant team and the rest of the teams marginal to weak. For all intents and purposes, what’s the difference between Duke’s schedule and Stony Brook, Loyola, JMU and Florida? In the overall assessment of schedules, Duke’s is pretty much identical to these others.
I see a consistent thought--namely, that Duke's strength of schedule is just as tough as Stony Brook's, JMU's, Florida's and Loyola's schedules. All in the same grouping of difficulty, regardless of in-conference or out of conference, and regardless of intent by Duke to duck the tougher out of conference opponents.
