LaxPower Back-Up Stick

ABV 8.3% wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2019 5:05 pm Loved how the 4 AQ winners had to duke it out in a mid week game, a few years ago, just to put the ncaa mind at ease. While all 8 at larges get more days to prepare.

Hawkeye wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2019 10:42 am How I currently see the NCAA tournament field at the end of week 8... if the tournament started today:
https://imgur.com/a/lK7KA7Z

Bids by conference in my current projection:
ACC: 4 (Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke, Syracuse)
Big Ten: 3 (Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State)
Ivy League: 2 (Pennsylvania, Yale)
Patriot League: 2 (Lehigh, Loyola)

With a couple of underdogs (see: Lehigh, Delaware) currently being in line for AQs (per my stated criteria), the bubble is a few spots below where it would be if the favorites win those leagues.

RPI numbers and the media poll are starting to converge. There are only a few teams that the two still see in vastly different lights. In particular, Loyola, High Point, Villanova, and Johns Hopkins jump out at me as having significant differences between their ratings in the two.

Cornell/Syracuse next Tuesday looks like it could have major playoff implications. Both teams are squarely on the bubble right now.

LRoggy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2019 11:26 am Mount St. Mary's over Hobart in the NEC AQ? Not this year.

Hawkeye wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2019 10:29 am

ABV 8.3% wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2019 5:05 pm Loved how the 4 AQ winners had to duke it out in a mid week game, a few years ago, just to put the ncaa mind at ease. While all 8 at larges get more days to prepare.

By rule, a "play-in game" must be between AQs. The lacrosse tournament currently has one less at-large bid than is required per NCAA rules. It's 9 autobids/8 at-larges right now. The loser of the play-in game technically does not make the tournament in the NCAA's eyes. It's a work around of their own rules to keep from having to expand the tournament to 18 (or more).

Contrast this with basketball, where the "First Four" involves 4 AQs and 4 at-larges. These are not true "play-in games" in that there is nothing to play into. The basketball tournament currently has 34 autobids/34 at-larges, as is required. The tournament itself consists of 68 teams. The NCAA's format choice for the First Four revolves more around getting eyeballs on the games -- one "marquee" game per night, instead of having four games involving all 16 seeds -- versus roundabout compliance with their own rules.

I am as against play-in games as anyone, but it's not that they are necessarily out to give an advantage to the at-large teams by giving them extra time to prepare. It's more nuanced than that.

ABV 8.3% wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:00 pm Rules can be changed. Is there any disadvantage to an AQ playing on Wednesday and the winner playing a game 72 hours later? I don't like the comparison to basketball for a number of reasons. The basketball play in games are usually 16 or 11 seeds and a 16 seed has never won a 1st round game, except for UMBC last year.

Boxster54 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2019 8:15 pm Here are my predictions right now but of course, this could and probably will change. Just too many big games remaining including conference championships. Lehigh, Towson, UNC, Cornell, Army, Hopkins can change this based on how they and other teams finish, not to mention an upset champion in a few of these leagues. Most of the usual one team conferences will be one team AQ bids. The Patriot is one bid if Loyola wins it, two if they dont since they are going. That would knock out one of the at large, maybe Cuse or Rutgers. Ivy is two bids likely which could be Yale and Penn but if Cornell wins the Ivy another one of the at large will get knocked out, this includes Penn. Yale is likely in unless they meltdown. I think if Denver doesn't win their league they will not get an at large unlike years past. Same for Albany this year, its win the AQ or they are out. The Colonial is probably one team, but if UMass wins the AQ I'm not sure what happens with Towson?

BIG 10 - Penn St
Colonial - UMass OR Towson
Ivy - Yale
MAAC - Siena OR QU
NEC - Hobart
SOCON - High Point
Patriot - Loyola or Lehigh
America East - Albany
Big East - Denver

At Large: Maryland, Ohio St, Rutgers, Penn, Duke, ND, UVA, Syracuse

laxreference wrote: ↑Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:11 pm Here are the resumes for the 5 teams that were mentioned: Rutgers, Hopkins, Army, Lehigh, High_Point


BubbleComp_Rutgers_Johns_Hopkins_Army_Lehigh_High_Point_20190403.png


Army has the best overall resume based on Strength-of-Record with High Point a close second. They have also been the top team in this group in terms of Adj Efficiency.

Winner of RU/JHU will definitely get a bump, but probably not to the point that they'd dethrone the Black Knights.

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:44 pm Adjusted efficiency and ELO ratings are not selection criteria, as far as I know.

laxreference wrote: ↑Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:11 pm Here are the resumes for the 5 teams that were mentioned: Rutgers, Hopkins, Army, Lehigh, High_Point


BubbleComp_Rutgers_Johns_Hopkins_Army_Lehigh_High_Point_20190403.png


Army has the best overall resume based on Strength-of-Record with High Point a close second. They have also been the top team in this group in terms of Adj Efficiency.

Winner of RU/JHU will definitely get a bump, but probably not to the point that they'd dethrone the Black Knights.

10stone5 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:56 pm One quibble.
If High Point does not get to 20 or better RPI, they won’t at large eligible.