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Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:04 pm
by laxreference
Here is the win probability chart for the
Rutgers win over
St. John's. Clearly, things were not looking good for the Scarlet Knights early in the 4th. What a comeback!
- rutgers_st_johns_20190209_aggressive100.png (36.85 KiB) Viewed 3323 times
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:53 am
by laxreference
I went through the week that was to come up with the top individual performances of the past week. Josh Stout of the upstart Utah Utes grabbed the first slot with his 7-goal 8.89 EGA performance against Mercer. Stout has been the workhorse the Coach Holman's team early on. He has accounted for
15.9% of the teams recorded plays (next highest is Cambere at 11.0%). His torrid pace may slow down eventually, but for now, we can just enjoy it.
Who had
offensive explosion from the Towson Tigers as your big headline from week 2? Well if you didn't notice, the top players list sure did. Coach Nadelen's guy occupy our #2 and #3 slots this week. Alex Woodall contributed 8.14 EGA and Brendan Sunday announced his presence with 7.94. Imagine a Towson team that controls faceoffs, finds the net like they did Saturday, and has the same defense that ushered them to Championship Weekend two years ago. Scary...
Anyway, the
full post is here, but here's the infographic showing the full top-20.
- PlayerGame_visualization(20190211).png (57.12 KiB) Viewed 3277 times
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:01 am
by laxreference
When ESPN put out their scheduled games for the season, I was curious to see if there were any patterns or trends in the selections. Obviously, there are some contractual obligations that the various conferences (and Hopkins maybe) have with the network, so a lot of what we saw was due to that. Still, it's interesting to see what came out of it. The
full post is here.
But one of the basic insights was just to group the 23 announced games by team to see who ended up with the most screen time.
- ESPNGamesByTeam2019.png (39.16 KiB) Viewed 3233 times
Hopkins was far and away number 1. To the point that you have to wonder if the ESPN execs are a little nervous after the Towson shellacking...
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:36 am
by Hawkeye
laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:01 am
When ESPN put out their scheduled games for the season, I was curious to see if there were any patterns or trends in the selections. Obviously, there are some contractual obligations that the various conferences (and Hopkins maybe) have with the network, so a lot of what we saw was due to that. Still, it's interesting to see what came out of it. The
full post is here.
But one of the basic insights was just to group the 23 announced games by team to see who ended up with the most screen time.
ESPNGamesByTeam2019.png
Hopkins was far and away number 1. To the point that you have to wonder if the ESPN execs are a little nervous after the Towson shellacking...
There's no maybe about Hopkins. They have a contract with ESPN to show their home games on ESPNU either live or within 24 hours of the game being played.
I would argue that ESPN's schedule is not somewhat shaped by contracts with conferences/Hopkins, but rather completely molded by those contracts. Disney does not sit down at the beginning to the season and decide - oh, these are the 25 best games that we want to show out of the 505 available. They sit down with quotas to fill by conference and select within those parameters. In all cases but independents and Hopkins, the conferences control the media rights and (at least provisionally) own the content that ESPN is showing.
It's just like the 12 day selection process for college football, but all at once and on a smaller scale.
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:11 pm
by laxreference
Hawkeye wrote: ↑Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:36 am
I would argue that ESPN's schedule is not somewhat shaped by contracts with conferences/Hopkins, but rather completely molded by those contracts.
Yeah, I can't argue with that. It may have been a more interesting analysis to look at choices they made when there were two (or more) games that would satisfy a contractual obligation and see how they selected in those situations. But without knowing all those restrictions, probably hard to do that in practice.
As others have pointed out, at least we can sit back and be glad that ESPN has 23 lacrosse games on their schedule this spring.
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:40 pm
by Hawkeye
laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:11 pm
Hawkeye wrote: ↑Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:36 am
I would argue that ESPN's schedule is not somewhat shaped by contracts with conferences/Hopkins, but rather completely molded by those contracts.
we can sit back and be glad that ESPN has 23 lacrosse games on their schedule this spring.
I agree. ESPN does a great job covering this sport, and, despite the complaints of some, we are lucky to have them showing games almost every weekend in the spring.
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:04 pm
by laxreference
Win Probability engine is up and running on the two afternoon games. Will update with the rest of the links as they get started:
Updated list of Live Win Probability Links
-
Wagner vs Lafayette
-
Mount St Marys vs Towson
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:03 pm
by laxreference
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:52 pm
by Hawkeye
Thank you for these. Fascinating to keep an eye on during games
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:39 pm
by laxreference
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:40 pm
by laxreference
Hawkeye wrote: ↑Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:52 pm
Thank you for these. Fascinating to keep an eye on during games
Glad you are enjoying them. And you are absolutely right, it's a nice 2nd-screen way to add some extra context to the game-watching experience.
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Sat Feb 16, 2019 11:12 am
by laxreference
And we are off and running on another lacrosse Saturday!
-
Duke vs Denver
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Sat Feb 16, 2019 11:24 am
by Hawkeye
Does the weather situation in Durham factor into these calculations?
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Sat Feb 16, 2019 12:32 pm
by laxreference
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Sat Feb 16, 2019 12:33 pm
by laxreference
Hawkeye wrote: ↑Sat Feb 16, 2019 11:24 am
Does the weather situation in Durham factor into these calculations?
I'm glad that you think I have the ability to do that. Sadly, no, the weather isn't factored in to the win probabilities.
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Sat Feb 16, 2019 1:08 pm
by laxreference
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Sat Feb 16, 2019 1:57 pm
by Hawkeye
laxreference wrote: ↑Sat Feb 16, 2019 12:33 pm
Hawkeye wrote: ↑Sat Feb 16, 2019 11:24 am
Does the weather situation in Durham factor into these calculations?
I'm glad that you think I have the ability to do that. Sadly, no, the weather isn't factored in to the win probabilities.
Haha, it was worth asking. Wow, what a game that was!
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Sat Feb 16, 2019 2:15 pm
by laxreference
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Sat Feb 16, 2019 4:45 pm
by laxreference
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Sat Feb 16, 2019 8:21 pm
by laxreference