Here is the win probability chart for the Rutgers win over St. John's. Clearly, things were not looking good for the Scarlet Knights early in the 4th. What a comeback!
Lacrosse Analytics
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I went through the week that was to come up with the top individual performances of the past week. Josh Stout of the upstart Utah Utes grabbed the first slot with his 7-goal 8.89 EGA performance against Mercer. Stout has been the workhorse the Coach Holman's team early on. He has accounted for 15.9% of the teams recorded plays (next highest is Cambere at 11.0%). His torrid pace may slow down eventually, but for now, we can just enjoy it.
Who had offensive explosion from the Towson Tigers as your big headline from week 2? Well if you didn't notice, the top players list sure did. Coach Nadelen's guy occupy our #2 and #3 slots this week. Alex Woodall contributed 8.14 EGA and Brendan Sunday announced his presence with 7.94. Imagine a Towson team that controls faceoffs, finds the net like they did Saturday, and has the same defense that ushered them to Championship Weekend two years ago. Scary...
Anyway, the full post is here, but here's the infographic showing the full top-20.
Who had offensive explosion from the Towson Tigers as your big headline from week 2? Well if you didn't notice, the top players list sure did. Coach Nadelen's guy occupy our #2 and #3 slots this week. Alex Woodall contributed 8.14 EGA and Brendan Sunday announced his presence with 7.94. Imagine a Towson team that controls faceoffs, finds the net like they did Saturday, and has the same defense that ushered them to Championship Weekend two years ago. Scary...
Anyway, the full post is here, but here's the infographic showing the full top-20.
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When ESPN put out their scheduled games for the season, I was curious to see if there were any patterns or trends in the selections. Obviously, there are some contractual obligations that the various conferences (and Hopkins maybe) have with the network, so a lot of what we saw was due to that. Still, it's interesting to see what came out of it. The full post is here.
But one of the basic insights was just to group the 23 announced games by team to see who ended up with the most screen time.
Hopkins was far and away number 1. To the point that you have to wonder if the ESPN execs are a little nervous after the Towson shellacking...
But one of the basic insights was just to group the 23 announced games by team to see who ended up with the most screen time.
Hopkins was far and away number 1. To the point that you have to wonder if the ESPN execs are a little nervous after the Towson shellacking...
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There's no maybe about Hopkins. They have a contract with ESPN to show their home games on ESPNU either live or within 24 hours of the game being played.laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:01 am When ESPN put out their scheduled games for the season, I was curious to see if there were any patterns or trends in the selections. Obviously, there are some contractual obligations that the various conferences (and Hopkins maybe) have with the network, so a lot of what we saw was due to that. Still, it's interesting to see what came out of it. The full post is here.
But one of the basic insights was just to group the 23 announced games by team to see who ended up with the most screen time.
ESPNGamesByTeam2019.png
Hopkins was far and away number 1. To the point that you have to wonder if the ESPN execs are a little nervous after the Towson shellacking...
I would argue that ESPN's schedule is not somewhat shaped by contracts with conferences/Hopkins, but rather completely molded by those contracts. Disney does not sit down at the beginning to the season and decide - oh, these are the 25 best games that we want to show out of the 505 available. They sit down with quotas to fill by conference and select within those parameters. In all cases but independents and Hopkins, the conferences control the media rights and (at least provisionally) own the content that ESPN is showing.
It's just like the 12 day selection process for college football, but all at once and on a smaller scale.
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2019 Georgia Tech lacrosse final record: 18-2; MCLA semifinalist
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Yeah, I can't argue with that. It may have been a more interesting analysis to look at choices they made when there were two (or more) games that would satisfy a contractual obligation and see how they selected in those situations. But without knowing all those restrictions, probably hard to do that in practice.
As others have pointed out, at least we can sit back and be glad that ESPN has 23 lacrosse games on their schedule this spring.
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I agree. ESPN does a great job covering this sport, and, despite the complaints of some, we are lucky to have them showing games almost every weekend in the spring.laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:11 pmwe can sit back and be glad that ESPN has 23 lacrosse games on their schedule this spring.
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2019 Georgia Tech lacrosse final record: 18-2; MCLA semifinalist
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Win Probability engine is up and running on the two afternoon games. Will update with the rest of the links as they get started:
Updated list of Live Win Probability Links
- Wagner vs Lafayette
- Mount St Marys vs Towson
Updated list of Live Win Probability Links
- Wagner vs Lafayette
- Mount St Marys vs Towson
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Updated list of Live Win Probability Links
- Virginia vs Lehigh
- Wagner vs Lafayette
- Mount St Marys vs Towson
- Virginia vs Lehigh
- Wagner vs Lafayette
- Mount St Marys vs Towson
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Thank you for these. Fascinating to keep an eye on during gameslaxreference wrote: ↑Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:03 pm Updated list of Live Win Probability Links
- Virginia vs Lehigh
- Wagner vs Lafayette
- Mount St Marys vs Towson
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Updated list of Live Win Probability Links
- Jacksonville vs Marquette
- Navy vs UMBC
- Virginia vs Lehigh
- Wagner vs Lafayette
- Mount St Marys vs Towson
- Jacksonville vs Marquette
- Navy vs UMBC
- Virginia vs Lehigh
- Wagner vs Lafayette
- Mount St Marys vs Towson
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Glad you are enjoying them. And you are absolutely right, it's a nice 2nd-screen way to add some extra context to the game-watching experience.Hawkeye wrote: ↑Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:52 pmThank you for these. Fascinating to keep an eye on during gameslaxreference wrote: ↑Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:03 pm Updated list of Live Win Probability Links
- Virginia vs Lehigh
- Wagner vs Lafayette
- Mount St Marys vs Towson
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Does the weather situation in Durham factor into these calculations?laxreference wrote: ↑Sat Feb 16, 2019 11:12 am And we are off and running on another lacrosse Saturday!
- Duke vs Denver
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Updated list of Live Win Probability Links
- Rutgers vs Army
- Georgetown vs Robert Morris
- Boston U vs Dartmouth
- Bryant vs Providence
- Drexel vs High Point
- Stony Brook vs Penn State
- North Carolina vs Harvard
- Duke vs Denver
- Rutgers vs Army
- Georgetown vs Robert Morris
- Boston U vs Dartmouth
- Bryant vs Providence
- Drexel vs High Point
- Stony Brook vs Penn State
- North Carolina vs Harvard
- Duke vs Denver
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I'm glad that you think I have the ability to do that. Sadly, no, the weather isn't factored in to the win probabilities.
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Updated list of Live Win Probability Links
- Brown vs Quinnipiac
- Fairfield vs Saint Joseph's
- Hartford vs St. John's
- Mercer vs Canisius
- Rutgers vs Army
- Georgetown vs Robert Morris
- Boston U vs Dartmouth
- Bryant vs Providence
- Drexel vs High Point
- Stony Brook vs Penn State
- North Carolina vs Harvard
- Duke vs Denver
- Brown vs Quinnipiac
- Fairfield vs Saint Joseph's
- Hartford vs St. John's
- Mercer vs Canisius
- Rutgers vs Army
- Georgetown vs Robert Morris
- Boston U vs Dartmouth
- Bryant vs Providence
- Drexel vs High Point
- Stony Brook vs Penn State
- North Carolina vs Harvard
- Duke vs Denver
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Haha, it was worth asking. Wow, what a game that was!laxreference wrote: ↑Sat Feb 16, 2019 12:33 pmI'm glad that you think I have the ability to do that. Sadly, no, the weather isn't factored in to the win probabilities.
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Updated list of Live Win Probability Links
- Johns Hopkins vs Loyola
- Penn vs Maryland
- Brown vs Quinnipiac
- Fairfield vs Saint Joseph's
- Hartford vs St. John's
- Monmouth vs Princeton
- UMass vs Ohio State
- Mercer vs Canisius
- Hofstra vs Utah
- Rutgers vs Army
- Georgetown vs Robert Morris
- Boston U vs Dartmouth
- Bryant vs Providence
- Drexel vs High Point
- Stony Brook vs Penn State
- North Carolina vs Harvard
- Duke vs Denver
- Johns Hopkins vs Loyola
- Penn vs Maryland
- Brown vs Quinnipiac
- Fairfield vs Saint Joseph's
- Hartford vs St. John's
- Monmouth vs Princeton
- UMass vs Ohio State
- Mercer vs Canisius
- Hofstra vs Utah
- Rutgers vs Army
- Georgetown vs Robert Morris
- Boston U vs Dartmouth
- Bryant vs Providence
- Drexel vs High Point
- Stony Brook vs Penn State
- North Carolina vs Harvard
- Duke vs Denver
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Updated list of Live Win Probability Links
- Syracuse vs Albany
- Air Force vs Marist
- Johns Hopkins vs Loyola
- Penn vs Maryland
- Yale vs Villanova
- Brown vs Quinnipiac
- Bucknell vs Richmond
- Fairfield vs Saint Joseph's
- Hartford vs St. John's
- Monmouth vs Princeton
- UMass vs Ohio State
- Mercer vs Canisius
- Hofstra vs Utah
- Rutgers vs Army
- Georgetown vs Robert Morris
- NJIT vs Delaware
- Boston U vs Dartmouth
- Bryant vs Providence
- Drexel vs High Point
- Stony Brook vs Penn State
- North Carolina vs Harvard
- Cleveland State vs Bellarmine
- Duke vs Denver
- Furman vs Sacred Heart
- Syracuse vs Albany
- Air Force vs Marist
- Johns Hopkins vs Loyola
- Penn vs Maryland
- Yale vs Villanova
- Brown vs Quinnipiac
- Bucknell vs Richmond
- Fairfield vs Saint Joseph's
- Hartford vs St. John's
- Monmouth vs Princeton
- UMass vs Ohio State
- Mercer vs Canisius
- Hofstra vs Utah
- Rutgers vs Army
- Georgetown vs Robert Morris
- NJIT vs Delaware
- Boston U vs Dartmouth
- Bryant vs Providence
- Drexel vs High Point
- Stony Brook vs Penn State
- North Carolina vs Harvard
- Cleveland State vs Bellarmine
- Duke vs Denver
- Furman vs Sacred Heart
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Last one for the day. It's been a ride...
Updated list of Live Win Probability Links
- Notre Dame vs Detroit
- Syracuse vs Albany
- Air Force vs Marist
- Johns Hopkins vs Loyola
- Penn vs Maryland
- Yale vs Villanova
- Brown vs Quinnipiac
- Bucknell vs Richmond
- Fairfield vs Saint Joseph's
- Hartford vs St. John's
- Monmouth vs Princeton
- UMass vs Ohio State
- Mercer vs Canisius
- Hofstra vs Utah
- Rutgers vs Army
- Georgetown vs Robert Morris
- NJIT vs Delaware
- Boston U vs Dartmouth
- Bryant vs Providence
- Drexel vs High Point
- Stony Brook vs Penn State
- North Carolina vs Harvard
- Cleveland State vs Bellarmine
- Duke vs Denver
- Furman vs Sacred Heart
Updated list of Live Win Probability Links
- Notre Dame vs Detroit
- Syracuse vs Albany
- Air Force vs Marist
- Johns Hopkins vs Loyola
- Penn vs Maryland
- Yale vs Villanova
- Brown vs Quinnipiac
- Bucknell vs Richmond
- Fairfield vs Saint Joseph's
- Hartford vs St. John's
- Monmouth vs Princeton
- UMass vs Ohio State
- Mercer vs Canisius
- Hofstra vs Utah
- Rutgers vs Army
- Georgetown vs Robert Morris
- NJIT vs Delaware
- Boston U vs Dartmouth
- Bryant vs Providence
- Drexel vs High Point
- Stony Brook vs Penn State
- North Carolina vs Harvard
- Cleveland State vs Bellarmine
- Duke vs Denver
- Furman vs Sacred Heart
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