LaxPower Back-Up Stick

aroundtheoutside wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 11:16 am Thank you so much for giving us this analysis!

Laxguy3 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 11:34 am

aroundtheoutside wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 11:16 am Thank you so much for giving us this analysis!

Bump. Great analysis. Lots of pressure on teams this weekend to perform. Can anyone beat the Gulls this year? They have been rolling all year without hesitation.

SixBySix wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 11:03 am
2) Who gets those #6 and #7 spots in each region can have a big impact on the vRRO records and will not be set in stone until Selection Sunday
3) Conference tournament games are not only opportunities to get the AQ, but can dramatically reshape a team's vRRO record even with a loss in the finals

SixBySix wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 11:03 am Well, now armed with the real first set of regional rankings, it is time to revisit this post. Let's just note how well the Massey composite predicted the RR almost exactly 1 month ago: Region I (6/7, included Hamilton instead of Endicott), Region II (6/7, included SJF instead of Vassar), Region III (6/7, included York instead of Stevenson though I would argue that this will likely flip after the head-to-head result this week), Region IV (6/7, included Rhodes instead of Centre), and Region V (6/7, included Wooster instead of Oberlin). I suppose one could argue that predicting the 7th team is the most difficult (and perhaps most important) aspect.

More importantly, let's take a look at the vRRO of the current Pool C contenders (note that as this is the first week of the regional rankings, this is not calculated for me by the NCAA so there will likely be a few errors as I manually compile these). I'll also mark who I am assuming am getting a Pool A or B bid to save space:

Region I:
Amherst 3-4
Babson 2-2 Pool A
Bowdoin 2-2
Endicott 1-1 Pool A
Middlebury 2-5
Trinity 1-2
Tufts 5-2 - Pool A
Wesleyan 3-2
Williams 2-6

Region II:
Cortland 2-1 Pool A
RPI 5-1
RIT 7-1 Pool A
SLU 4-1
SUNY Geneseo 0-5
Union 2-3
Vassar 0-4

Region III
CNU 6-3
Dickinson 5-2 ???
Gettysburg 3-5 ???
Salisbury 6-0 Pool A
Stevens 1-2
Stevenson 1-5
Swarthmore 3-1 ???
York 3-7 Pool A

Region IV
Centre 1-2 Pool A
Grove City 2-4 Pool A
HSC 2-3
Lynchburg 5-4
RMC 0-3
Roanoke 3-3
W&L 5-3 Pool A

Region V
Denison 2-4 Pool A
Elmhurst 2-2 Pool A
Hope 2-1 Pool A
IWU 0-2
Kenyon 2-4
Oberlin 0-5
OWU 2-3

And the reason anyone reads these things, the Pool C analysis with SoS as of the RR release:

Stone-Cold Locks (4): RPI (.609), SLU (.633), CNU (.688), Lynchburg (.634)
Likely In Unless They Lose Out (4): Bowdoin (.579), Wesleyan (.619), Amherst (.574), Dickinson if no AQ (.630)
Who Knows?/Need a Conference Tournament Win (6): Swarthmore(.590)/Gettysburg (.637) if no AQ, Middlebury (.652), Williams (0.673), Union (.673), Roanoke (.577)

14 teams for 11 spots (I've not given a Pool A bid to the CC in this analysis). Ultimately, I don't see the NESCAC and LL combining for 7 Pool C bids, so my first thought is to expect at least two of Midd/Williams/Union to be left out. If Gettysburg and Roanoke both lose in the quarterfinals of their conference tournaments, could potentially be a good case study of overall record vs SoS. I've underlined the teams I would predict to get bids today, but I suspect there is a very strong chance that either Swat or Gettysburg loses out in favor of another NESCAC team depending on how the last few weeks shake out.

Important caveats:
1) NEWMAC is a potential bid-stealing conference, I don't really see many others (HSC, for example, could bump W&L into the Pool C mix but likely at the cost of completely eliminating Roanoke from contention)
2) Who gets those #6 and #7 spots in each region can have a big impact on the vRRO records and will not be set in stone until Selection Sunday
3) Conference tournament games are not only opportunities to get the AQ, but can dramatically reshape a team's vRRO record even with a loss in the finals

hooray wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 12:59 pm Maybe I'm a total idiot but can someone please explain these "rankings" - like are these in order from #1 to #7? If that is the case how do some of these even make sense (W&L last, Swat second to last, etc.)

hooray wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 12:59 pm Maybe I'm a total idiot but can someone please explain these "rankings" - like are these in order from #1 to #7? If that is the case how do some of these even make sense (W&L last, Swat second to last, etc.)

ah23 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 20, 2024 4:49 pm If it's the ranked teams beating each other, I actually think that makes it more likely to result in four NESCAC bids because it adds relevant wins to each of their resumes. If there are upsets...watch out.

Think Tufts and Wesleyan are 100% in, Amherst is probably a lock unless they lose out, and Bowdoin is in a similar but slightly weaker position because they don't have the marquee wins that Wesleyan, Amherst, or...Middlebury do.

I think Middlebury is really interesting; they have great wins at the top of the resume, but they already have six losses. Think their only path is to be 2023 Williams, who got a Pool C bid at 10-7 because of a good overall resume and mostly ranked losses. If Middlebury wins out against Trinity and Williams, wins a first round conference tourney game, and then loses in the conference semis, they'd be...10-7, with three high-quality wins (St. Lawrence, Wesleyan, Amherst), solid resume filler Ws (Trinity, Williams, 1st round opponent), and a bunch of ranked losses. At the very least they'd be in the mix, which is wild given how poorly their season started.

Laxattackjack wrote: ↑Sun Apr 21, 2024 8:09 am at least two from NESCAC

ah23 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 21, 2024 10:11 am

Laxattackjack wrote: ↑Sun Apr 21, 2024 8:09 am at least two from NESCAC

I assume Bowdoin would be the second team you have ahead of Amherst for Pool C? I feel like I’m in the minority in having Amherst (slightly) ahead of them, but…I think Amherst has the best pair of wins of any team in the country and that’s hard to look past.

I will say: raw number of losses isn’t relevant for teams with enough good wins. Last season, three teams with 6+ losses got Pool C bids: Lynchburg (13-6), Union (11-6) and Williams (10-7). Amherst also made it at 11-5. In 2022, four did: Amherst (10-6), Gettysburg (12-7), Roanoke (13-6), and W&L (12-6). Two more teams got Pool C bids with five losses - RPI and Wesleyan.