More importantly, let's take a look at the vRRO of the current Pool C contenders (note that as this is the first week of the regional rankings, this is not calculated for me by the NCAA so there will likely be a few errors as I manually compile these). I'll also mark who I am assuming am getting a Pool A or B bid to save space:
Region I:
Amherst 3-4
Babson 2-2 Pool A
Bowdoin 2-2
Endicott 1-1 Pool A
Middlebury 2-5
Trinity 1-2
![Rolling Eyes :roll:](./images/smilies/icon_rolleyes.gif)
Tufts 5-2 - Pool A
Wesleyan 3-2
Williams 2-6
Region II:
Cortland 2-1 Pool A
RPI 5-1
RIT 7-1 Pool A
SLU 4-1
SUNY Geneseo 0-5
Union 2-3
Vassar 0-4
Region III
CNU 6-3
Dickinson 5-2 ???
Gettysburg 3-5 ???
Salisbury 6-0 Pool A
Stevens 1-2
Stevenson 1-5
Swarthmore 3-1 ???
York 3-7 Pool A
Region IV
Centre 1-2 Pool A
Grove City 2-4 Pool A
HSC 2-3
Lynchburg 5-4
RMC 0-3
Roanoke 3-3
W&L 5-3 Pool A
Region V
Denison 2-4 Pool A
Elmhurst 2-2 Pool A
Hope 2-1 Pool A
IWU 0-2
Kenyon 2-4
Oberlin 0-5
OWU 2-3
And the reason anyone reads these things, the Pool C analysis with SoS as of the RR release:
Stone-Cold Locks (4): RPI (.609), SLU (.633), CNU (.688), Lynchburg (.634)
Likely In Unless They Lose Out (4): Bowdoin (.579), Wesleyan (.619), Amherst (.574), Dickinson if no AQ (.630)
Who Knows?/Need a Conference Tournament Win (6): Swarthmore(.590)/Gettysburg (.637) if no AQ, Middlebury (.652), Williams (0.673), Union (.673), Roanoke (.577)
14 teams for 11 spots (I've not given a Pool A bid to the CC in this analysis). Ultimately, I don't see the NESCAC and LL combining for 7 Pool C bids, so my first thought is to expect at least two of Midd/Williams/Union to be left out. If Gettysburg and Roanoke both lose in the quarterfinals of their conference tournaments, could potentially be a good case study of overall record vs SoS. I've underlined the teams I would predict to get bids today, but I suspect there is a very strong chance that either Swat or Gettysburg loses out in favor of another NESCAC team depending on how the last few weeks shake out.
Important caveats:
1) NEWMAC is a potential bid-stealing conference, I don't really see many others (HSC, for example, could bump W&L into the Pool C mix but likely at the cost of completely eliminating Roanoke from contention)
2) Who gets those #6 and #7 spots in each region can have a big impact on the vRRO records and will not be set in stone until Selection Sunday
3) Conference tournament games are not only opportunities to get the AQ, but can dramatically reshape a team's vRRO record even with a loss in the finals