The Biden - Harris Era.

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a fan
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Re: The Biden - Harris Era.

Post by a fan »

get it to x wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 6:15 pm Your premise about the Dems courting the working class would make sense 40 years ago, but they are a party now of the technocrats, bureaucrats, big business, media and the so called elites. Their other cohort is the dependent class.
Who is it that you think is the Republican base?

I'm with you until you name the "dependent class". That's the American working class, my man. The American working class in 2023 IS the dependent class.

get it to x wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 6:15 pm They would prefer a lighter hand of government, which is anathema to Dems. Vaccine mandates a case in point. They were, and are, Trump voters.
Every State in the Union has vaccine mandates. All of them. Republican run, Dem run...doesn't matter. They all have them.
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Re: The Biden - Harris Era.

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

a fan wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:27 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 6:39 pm https://www.regions.com/-/media/pdfs/As ... -Cycle.pdf

For YE…..

The belief is that chips are more ubiquitous today and some of the historical cyclicality will be diminished. The $200B in spurred investment covers a lot of areas. I don’t like the United States government developing an investment thesis. Just me. There is a lot of time between here and there.
We tried the (relatively) free market....it all went overseas. How do you get domestic production without .gov intervention of some sort?

I can't figure how to do it.
You are confident that the government can figure out how to do it, outside of ponying up money? The industry is cyclical to begin with.
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Re: The Biden - Harris Era.

Post by youthathletics »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:49 pm
a fan wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:27 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 6:39 pm https://www.regions.com/-/media/pdfs/As ... -Cycle.pdf

For YE…..

The belief is that chips are more ubiquitous today and some of the historical cyclicality will be diminished. The $200B in spurred investment covers a lot of areas. I don’t like the United States government developing an investment thesis. Just me. There is a lot of time between here and there.
We tried the (relatively) free market....it all went overseas. How do you get domestic production without .gov intervention of some sort?

I can't figure how to do it.
You are confident that the government can figure out how to do it, outside of ponying up money? The industry is cyclical to begin with.
😂😂
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Re: The Biden - Harris Era.

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

youthathletics wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:51 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:49 pm
a fan wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:27 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 6:39 pm https://www.regions.com/-/media/pdfs/As ... -Cycle.pdf

For YE…..

The belief is that chips are more ubiquitous today and some of the historical cyclicality will be diminished. The $200B in spurred investment covers a lot of areas. I don’t like the United States government developing an investment thesis. Just me. There is a lot of time between here and there.
We tried the (relatively) free market....it all went overseas. How do you get domestic production without .gov intervention of some sort?

I can't figure how to do it.
You are confident that the government can figure out how to do it, outside of ponying up money? The industry is cyclical to begin with.
😂😂
Just putting it out there.
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Re: The Biden - Harris Era.

Post by a fan »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:49 pm
a fan wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:27 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 6:39 pm https://www.regions.com/-/media/pdfs/As ... -Cycle.pdf

For YE…..

The belief is that chips are more ubiquitous today and some of the historical cyclicality will be diminished. The $200B in spurred investment covers a lot of areas. I don’t like the United States government developing an investment thesis. Just me. There is a lot of time between here and there.
We tried the (relatively) free market....it all went overseas. How do you get domestic production without .gov intervention of some sort?

I can't figure how to do it.
You are confident that the government can figure out how to do it, outside of ponying up money? The industry is cyclical to begin with.
I'm confident in the facts in front of us, that the (relatively) free market led us to where we are now. And where we are now is unacceptable....leaving our entire economy vulnerable to trade issues with one or two countries doesn't sound at all wise to me. It's not too far away from depending on China for water.

What's your free market solution?
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Re: The Biden - Harris Era.

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

These are some of the issues that concern me:

https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/11/2 ... -pub-88439

My view is that it isn't as easy as it seems and this $200B announcement is akin to GWB declaring victory over Iraq. There was a lot more work to be done. Started learning about the industry 5 years ago. The good thing is that the demand for product is growing globally. The variability in supply and demand should have less episodic attenuation. We may be catching it at the right time. I don't like making an investment thesis based on a novel global infectious disease. Hopefully there was more diligence because if we end up with a significant glut, someone will be paying the piper. I don't mind it if its, AMD, NVDA, INTC or AAPL for instance.... but Uncle Sam's downside should be limited. Getting a return is a step in the right direction... something like we did with TARP.
Last edited by Typical Lax Dad on Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Biden - Harris Era.

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

a fan wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:12 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:49 pm
a fan wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:27 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 6:39 pm https://www.regions.com/-/media/pdfs/As ... -Cycle.pdf

For YE…..

The belief is that chips are more ubiquitous today and some of the historical cyclicality will be diminished. The $200B in spurred investment covers a lot of areas. I don’t like the United States government developing an investment thesis. Just me. There is a lot of time between here and there.
We tried the (relatively) free market....it all went overseas. How do you get domestic production without .gov intervention of some sort?

I can't figure how to do it.
You are confident that the government can figure out how to do it, outside of ponying up money? The industry is cyclical to begin with.
I'm confident in the facts in front of us, that the (relatively) free market led us to where we are now. And where we are now is unacceptable....leaving our entire economy vulnerable to trade issues with one or two countries doesn't sound at all wise to me. It's not too far away from depending on China for water.

What's your free market solution?
I have no problem with government providing industry support to spur investment.... we do it all the time. I don't know if responding to a shortfall caused by a pandemic will provide the return to justify the investment. I am not saying it won't...I am saying I don't know. How as all the Enterprise Zone and Empowerment Zone money worked out? Those that didn't need it, often are the folks that benefit most with downside in their favor. That is all that bothers me. When do you think we will see critical quantity of supply move the market?
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Re: The Biden - Harris Era.

Post by a fan »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:19 pm
I have no problem with government providing industry support to spur investment.... we do it all the time. I don't know if responding to a shortfall caused by a pandemic will provide the return to justify the investment. I am not saying it won't...I am saying I don't know. How as all the Enterprise Zone and Empowerment Zone money worked out? Those that didn't need it, often are the folks that benefit most with downside in their favor. That is all that bothers me. When do you think we will see critical quantity of supply move the market?
Ah, got it. To me? And I guess this is just me....Chip Act is designed to make us less dependent on China/Taiwan/other chip builders.

It's in the White House's own description of the Bill.

CHIPS and Science Act Will Lower Costs, Create Jobs, Strengthen Supply Chains, and Counter China


Pretty bold and overt move to tell China that the balance of trade is shifting in favor of the US, and shifting quickly. If I'm Xi? Unless I want my economy to fall apart, I'd think long and hard about irritating the United States. My view? Biden is doing what Trump only CLAIMED to do: stand up to China.

This really screws the Chinese long term. Long term meaning: 2-10 years.


The Zones are stupid. I'd MUCH rather they do it like Biden is: direct investment, take a cut of profits if they are there. I"m sure you've seen me ask 1,000 times why we don't do that with drug R&D funding and tax breaks.

People do NOT understand that a tax break is the exact same thing as spending, from the Treasury's point of view. But the on the ground difference between the two is stark.
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Re: The Biden - Harris Era.

Post by a fan »

a fan wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:31 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:19 pm
I have no problem with government providing industry support to spur investment.... we do it all the time. I don't know if responding to a shortfall caused by a pandemic will provide the return to justify the investment. I am not saying it won't...I am saying I don't know. How as all the Enterprise Zone and Empowerment Zone money worked out? Those that didn't need it, often are the folks that benefit most with downside in their favor. That is all that bothers me. When do you think we will see critical quantity of supply move the market?
Ah, got it. To me? And I guess this is just me....Chip Act is designed to make us less dependent on China/Taiwan/other chip builders.

It's in the White House's own description of the Bill.

CHIPS and Science Act Will Lower Costs, Create Jobs, Strengthen Supply Chains, and Counter China


Pretty bold and overt move to tell China that the balance of trade is shifting in favor of the US, and shifting quickly. If I'm Xi? Unless I want my economy to fall apart, I'd think long and hard about irritating the United States. My view? Biden is doing what Trump only CLAIMED to do: stand up to China.

This really screws the Chinese long term. Long term meaning: 2-10 years.


The Zones are stupid. I'd MUCH rather they do it like Biden is: direct investment, take a cut of profits if they are there. I"m sure you've seen me ask 1,000 times why we don't do that with drug R&D funding and tax breaks.

People do NOT understand that a tax break is the exact same thing as spending, from the Treasury's point of view. But the on the ground difference between the two is stark.
And I should add: I'm sure there will be downsides to the bill. They're speeding permits for manufacturing, for example. That can go sideways in a hurry.
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Re: The Biden - Harris Era.

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

a fan wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:36 pm
a fan wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:31 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:19 pm
I have no problem with government providing industry support to spur investment.... we do it all the time. I don't know if responding to a shortfall caused by a pandemic will provide the return to justify the investment. I am not saying it won't...I am saying I don't know. How as all the Enterprise Zone and Empowerment Zone money worked out? Those that didn't need it, often are the folks that benefit most with downside in their favor. That is all that bothers me. When do you think we will see critical quantity of supply move the market?
Ah, got it. To me? And I guess this is just me....Chip Act is designed to make us less dependent on China/Taiwan/other chip builders.

It's in the White House's own description of the Bill.

CHIPS and Science Act Will Lower Costs, Create Jobs, Strengthen Supply Chains, and Counter China


Pretty bold and overt move to tell China that the balance of trade is shifting in favor of the US, and shifting quickly. If I'm Xi? Unless I want my economy to fall apart, I'd think long and hard about irritating the United States. My view? Biden is doing what Trump only CLAIMED to do: stand up to China.

This really screws the Chinese long term. Long term meaning: 2-10 years.


The Zones are stupid. I'd MUCH rather they do it like Biden is: direct investment, take a cut of profits if they are there. I"m sure you've seen me ask 1,000 times why we don't do that with drug R&D funding and tax breaks.

People do NOT understand that a tax break is the exact same thing as spending, from the Treasury's point of view. But the on the ground difference between the two is stark.
And I should add: I'm sure there will be downsides to the bill. They're speeding permits for manufacturing, for example. That can go sideways in a hurry.
China is in much worst shape than we are as it relates to high value chip fabrication. Probably 10 years behind us as we limited their ability to rapidly build its industry. I have no problem with back up sources of supply and supply chain redundancy. COVID was probably just one aspect. Chips security is national security, so I understand it. China had the last jurisdiction to approve a $5B transaction in this space. They approved the deal because they are just as desperate for semi-conductors as the next country. It is going to be a while before we see the impact of it. I am all for anything that we can do create well paying jobs in this country. Better to be at the front of it than the end. I just want private industry to take on an appropriate amount of risk.
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Re: The Biden - Harris Era.

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

get it to x wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:39 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:18 pm
get it to x wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 6:59 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 6:35 pm
get it to x wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 6:15 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 12:10 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 9:02 am Ugh, this is why I can be part of the Dems even if I reject 98% of my legacy Rep party these days. (NYT daily)


Social policy through semiconductors
When the bipartisan CHIPS Act passed last year to provide $52 billion to promote chip-building in America, trade experts hailed it as the most significant investment in industrial policy in a half-century.

But new disclosures about what companies must do to get the CHIPS money — including guaranteeing child care for workers and refraining from stock buybacks — show that the Biden administration is also keen on using federal dollars to reshape corporate America.

The CHIPS Act is increasingly about more than, well, chips. To be sure, the law is meant to revive America’s semiconductor industry by funding research and manufacturing in the U.S., reducing a reliance on foreign production for critical tech components. It’s also been described as a national security measure. (It’s worth noting that lawmakers from both parties have already questioned whether the already-profitable chip industry needs such funding.)

But there are strings attached to the money:

Those seeking $150 million or more must guarantee affordable, high-quality child care for plant workers. (Some of the federal subsidies can go toward meeting the requirement.) Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said this was a way to ensure women can stay in the work force.
Companies also need to share part of any unanticipated profits with the U.S., a move that federal officials said was meant to ensure accurate financial projections.
Preference for funding will go to companies that promise not to buy back stock. The requirement is rooted in growing Democratic opposition to a financial maneuver that critics say diverts money to Wall Street investors when it could be reinvested in the company.
It’s perhaps the White House’s broadest effort yet to use policy to influence business. While the U.S. government has attached conditions to federal funding in the past — the Biden administration already imposed tougher labor standards and “Buy American” provisions on the Inflation Reduction Act — this goes further.

Such moves are unlikely to please conservatives, who have accused the White House of pursuing progressive social goals through policy when it hasn’t been able to get them through Congress. “Rube Goldberg-ing new mandates into an expensive and misguided industrial policy is no way to make social policy,” Eric Boehm writes in Reason.
I assume you meant cannot, not "can"...

What aspect do you find particularly objectionable and why?

I didn't have an issue, for instance, with the Buy American provisions in the IRA bill.

The Dems, and particularly the moderate wing looking to rebuild support among working class voters not necessarily on the coasts, are looking for ways that move the needle in working class folks' lives. Especially younger working class families with children, making it easier for household formation and having children...

They'd largely ignored these folks, as had the GOP, for several decades...at least so far as substantive policy measures (child tax credit being an exception...but now gone). Here's an opportunity to not ignore...

These are big companies who could get a $150 million plus loan, not SMB's, so setting expectations about child care, or family leave, etc are not onerous, rather they are definitely doable efficiently. Lots of very large companies do these measures, at least to some degree...but not all do...however want our dough, then take care of your employees. And yes, we need to get women back into the workforce. (BTW, the family leave thing...which doesn't appear to have been included, is very much a dad thing too when its "parental" not merely maternal...there's actually a bi-partisan effort brewing to get this sort of thing done for dads.)

No stock buybacks? Heck, makes a ton of sense to me...we've seen money flow from Washington to companies to shareholders, ignoring reinvestment much less workers...that's not the objective of this program.

I'd need to see the "excess profits" calculation, as that sounds problematic, but in principle I can see why they'd be saying they want to share in any unexpected windfall returns...I think we should be thinking that way about all sorts of government risk funding, eg tech risk, Pharma, etc...
Your premise about the Dems courting the working class would make sense 40 years ago, but they are a party now of the technocrats, bureaucrats, big business, media and the so called elites. Their other cohort is the dependent class. They are almost like a feudal party, with the gentry and the serfs. They despise non-union worker's, who in the private sector are well over 80% of the workforce. There are also some serious cultural dissimilarities like religion and education. They would prefer a lighter hand of government, which is anathema to Dems. Vaccine mandates a case in point. They were, and are, Trump voters.
get it to x,
Sherrod Brown and Joe Manchin and Jon Tester and Amy Klobuchar and a whole bunch of others, including Joe Biden, would disagree with you about what the priorities for their party should be.

It's no accident that the party chose Joe Biden, as there's indeed a recognition that the Dems needed to rebuild its relationship with the working class.

Where I'd agree with you, though, is that the party (and the left generally) had become dominated by the coastal elites; I'd not argue about many, maybe most of them having lost touch with the working class, and the "left" had allowed themselves to be branded that way...Notwithstanding Bernie Sanders on the left.

I think you're entirely wrong about "despise" non-union workers, however. That's Fox or OAN talking not Sherrod Brown or heck, AOC.
Supporting workers rights to organize ain't the same as despising workers not getting those rights in their jobs.

BTW, there are little to no differences between union workers and non-union when it comes to religion, much less education. Very similar.

What I do think is anathema to the Dems (and used to be to the GOP) is racism...that's the common factor that seems to separate the MAGA crowd more than anything from other GOP and former GOP, though anti-intellectualism and anti-expertise is a big part as well...again, anti-intellectualism wasn't a factor in Buckley's GOP...nor mine.
And Bernie has how many vacation homes? His lecture is going for $100 a ticket. Manchin lives on a yacht. Klobuchar was voted meanest Senator by Capitol staffers. They are more concerned with their sinecures and destroying the Republican Party.

Your cry of racism rings hollow. Was Trump a racist the whole time he was a TV star? How did NBC not find out? Or the NAACP and Jesse Jackson. I consider anyone crying racist as not having a cogent argument. Almost like the last refuge of a scoundrel.
:D

That's the best you got?

I responded to your absolutist diatribe with a pretty darn clear, but nuanced, explanation that the Dems need to appeal to working class voters and are making efforts to do so.

YOU needn't buy that these efforts are sincere or will actually help working class people, go ahead and bring your cynicism, but they really do need to do so if they want to win elections. So, are making efforts to do so.

Now, if we're going to be cynical, let's admit that neither the Dems nor the GOP have done right by the working class for a couple of decades, at least. Plenty of arm waving, but very little substantive. And that certainly includes the Trump 4 years. Nada.

And if you really don't see the embrace, rather than the rejection, of admittedly white supremacist and Neo-Nazi, anti-semites, etc to be characteristic of the MAGA GOP, I don't think we're operating on the same planet.

And if you really want to go down the Trump rathole again, I'll point you at the housing lawsuits and the 'park'...Trump "liked" black people who shined up to him or were famous, but his true colors were revealed numerous times.

That said, I think Trump puts on the characteristics of whatever he thinks he will benefit most from, primarily financially, but also in his grubby desire to be "accepted", to be noticed, gilt bathrooms and all.

And he tapped into the racist impulses of a big element of the electorate, typically white and less educated, who were horrified by Obama's election...what brought Trump to national political prominence was what? birtherism.
Look at the counties Trump won in Ohio and Florida. They voted for Obama at least once, maybe twice. Mahoning is a great example. What were their racist impulses? And Trump was already prominent way before Obama ran the first time. Again, you're taking the cheap way out instead of telling me why Dems as they are currently constituted would appeal to the working class.
Don't get me wrong, this is an uphill climb for the Dems, but I'd also say there's a real window for them to do so because the Trump MAGA crew delivered NADA in reality. (it's why Biden won).

But they did at least talk to these issues, stoked these fears and resentments like no one had really done before. And Trump generated huge turnout of voters who hadn't turned out before in the white burbs and rural areas.

Re Florida: https://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/ ... e/2302225/
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Re: The Biden - Harris Era.

Post by Farfromgeneva »

HooDat wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 5:33 pm
a fan wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 1:03 pm
youthathletics wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 12:59 pm
a fan wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 12:35 pm If anyone is following the massive waves that are forming because of the CHIPS act.......Taiwan and China are rapidly fading in our rear view mirror.

Score more points for Biden. You wanted to stand up to China? Biden is actually walking the walk. With more to come. Tip of the hat.

You don't need to arm Taiwan. You simply move to make them irrelevant. A lesson we should have learned after 40+ years of mess in the ME, chasing oil.

https://www.semiconductors.org/the-chip ... roduction/
Great news indeed.

OS posted a link c-span chat on this...never got around to listening: https://fanlax.com/forum/viewtopic.php? ... or#p409320

TLD thought it was funny that we could do this in such short time and did not like the speed at which we could do it: https://fanlax.com/forum/viewtopic.php? ... or#p320289

https://fanlax.com/forum/viewtopic.php? ... or#p398433
Gotta say....didn't think Biden had it in him. Guess I was wrong. Happy to be wrong.
agreed.


also re:
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 9:02 am refraining from stock buybacks
I have no problem with the gov telling companies - you have to spend this money on building something, since that is the goal. You could do it through convoluted tax incentives, but this is more direct and in my opinion therefore better.
That was from the NYT deal book morning daily not just words on refraining from buybacks.

But…if profits and cash flow is fungible how do you discern what’s related when you have allocated overhead? Segregate all into separate LLCs and do only time and materials maybe? Otherwise it’s impossible to segregate those profits without getting into a debate into allocated expenses. That’ll likely not go well.
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Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Biden - Harris Era.

Post by Farfromgeneva »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 6:16 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 3:28 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 12:10 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 9:02 am Ugh, this is why I can be part of the Dems even if I reject 98% of my legacy Rep party these days. (NYT daily)


Social policy through semiconductors
When the bipartisan CHIPS Act passed last year to provide $52 billion to promote chip-building in America, trade experts hailed it as the most significant investment in industrial policy in a half-century.

But new disclosures about what companies must do to get the CHIPS money — including guaranteeing child care for workers and refraining from stock buybacks — show that the Biden administration is also keen on using federal dollars to reshape corporate America.

The CHIPS Act is increasingly about more than, well, chips. To be sure, the law is meant to revive America’s semiconductor industry by funding research and manufacturing in the U.S., reducing a reliance on foreign production for critical tech components. It’s also been described as a national security measure. (It’s worth noting that lawmakers from both parties have already questioned whether the already-profitable chip industry needs such funding.)

But there are strings attached to the money:

Those seeking $150 million or more must guarantee affordable, high-quality child care for plant workers. (Some of the federal subsidies can go toward meeting the requirement.) Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said this was a way to ensure women can stay in the work force.
Companies also need to share part of any unanticipated profits with the U.S., a move that federal officials said was meant to ensure accurate financial projections.
Preference for funding will go to companies that promise not to buy back stock. The requirement is rooted in growing Democratic opposition to a financial maneuver that critics say diverts money to Wall Street investors when it could be reinvested in the company.
It’s perhaps the White House’s broadest effort yet to use policy to influence business. While the U.S. government has attached conditions to federal funding in the past — the Biden administration already imposed tougher labor standards and “Buy American” provisions on the Inflation Reduction Act — this goes further.

Such moves are unlikely to please conservatives, who have accused the White House of pursuing progressive social goals through policy when it hasn’t been able to get them through Congress. “Rube Goldberg-ing new mandates into an expensive and misguided industrial policy is no way to make social policy,” Eric Boehm writes in Reason.
I assume you meant cannot, not "can"...

What aspect do you find particularly objectionable and why?

I didn't have an issue, for instance, with the Buy American provisions in the IRA bill.

The Dems, and particularly the moderate wing looking to rebuild support among working class voters not necessarily on the coasts, are looking for ways that move the needle in working class folks' lives. Especially younger working class families with children, making it easier for household formation and having children...

They'd largely ignored these folks, as had the GOP, for several decades...at least so far as substantive policy measures (child tax credit being an exception...but now gone). Here's an opportunity to not ignore...

These are big companies who could get a $150 million plus loan, not SMB's, so setting expectations about child care, or family leave, etc are not onerous, rather they are definitely doable efficiently. Lots of very large companies do these measures, at least to some degree...but not all do...however want our dough, then take care of your employees. And yes, we need to get women back into the workforce. (BTW, the family leave thing...which doesn't appear to have been included, is very much a dad thing too when its "parental" not merely maternal...there's actually a bi-partisan effort brewing to get this sort of thing done for dads.)

No stock buybacks? Heck, makes a ton of sense to me...we've seen money flow from Washington to companies to shareholders, ignoring reinvestment much less workers...that's not the objective of this program.

I'd need to see the "excess profits" calculation, as that sounds problematic, but in principle I can see why they'd be saying they want to share in any unexpected windfall returns...I think we should be thinking that way about all sorts of government risk funding, eg tech risk, Pharma, etc...
Tying investment to private capital allocation is a disaster waiting to happen every single time. Historically must be 100% I suspect.

Two separate issues to be addressed separately. Don’t provide the funds to Private enterprise do it in house. No different than the typical outsource vs build decision every company makes and with appropriate long term planning and scenario analysis which is transparently presented to owners and their primary agents. That’s not what this is.

Split the oversight or employment requirements from the investment. It’s dishonest and opaque to combine them and then sell it as only one
Thing and intentionally ignore all the second order problems that can come (see bush’s tax code change 20ish years ago and how it drove investment/capital allocation away from income generation and the follow on consequences for the working class).

But they don’t want to. It allows them to sell the need to fix the problems they created by doing it this way which will come. Political iatrogenics.

Or as the girl on Black Jeopardy says about Caitlyn Jenner being on a magazine cover…”ummm I don’t know, you can’t do EVERYTHING”

Can watch the entire skit or just jump to about 2:45 for specific reference but the whole thing is excellent:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=O7VaXlMvAvk
your response seems overly complicated and is difficult to parse...at least for a slow poke like me.

Could you address each objective a bit more clearly as to what you are actually object and why?
(For my benefit, the cultural references is distracting from my comprehension.)

By "investment" do you mean that providing funds to these companies when they move business to the US, build factories, empty people, etc should not be done by government, should only be done by private finance?...I'd understand that argument, but I'm not sure that's what you're saying.

In the "out-source" comment are you referring to requiring them to provide affordable childcare (most companies do this with an out-sourced provider, who occupies space on campus)...is the CHIPS Act not allowing that as the way a company accomplishes the requirement?

why not accompany these dollars with such requirements? Are they actually "opaque" or do the companies know up front what they need to do to get these otherwise "free" dollars?

As to the "investment" accomplishing an ROI, the objective, at least as I hear it, is not to try to maximize ROI in direct financial returns to the government, but if the company does exceedingly well it's considering that a 'windfall'. Unexpected, but no one crying about sharing.

The stock buyback thing makes huge sense to me.
Typed up a reply once in computer but forced re/login erased it then felt like I should reply so did a faster one on my phone while trying to make dinner for family, get son (and myself) ready for lacrosse practice and get the Hobart game set up on tv. Should’ve skipped the last part clearly.

US Capital investment - meaning “investment above”, taxpayer/citizen capex

Meant if the govt wants to control capital allocation of a private business they should separate that from the decision to invest in US infrastructure. If they want to control the income statement and balance sheet of the operations that provide the construction and development of the infrastructure being invested in then do it internally as a govt controlled and owned entity, not subbing it to Fluor Corp or Bechtel then telling them what their gross margins need to be utilized for.

Stock buybacks-how do you determine allocated overhead and therefor profits. These businesses are low margin high volume not tech businesses so pushing 200bps of s,g&a one way or another is massive unlike in software or similar.

If we want companies to do these things, that’s a separate discussion and should be segregated. If we don’t want profits from the expenditures then take the investment in house, employ those people and provide those benefits. There will be perverse incentives coming out of it and skew outcomes in some way we don’t like ultimately as the private sector will figure out some other arbitrage. How about the fact that large companies can spread healthcare companies more cheaply than small ones so it’s picking the winners that way. There’s a million examples.

Just require businesses to provide child care or cap project level profits explicitly if that’s what we want. Don’t pretend we’re allowing private incentive structures and private risk/reward outcomes and then put the thumb on the scale and cause all sorts of exogenous shocks.

This isn’t a statement in the merits of demanding or wanting these things, it’s about the second order spiraling of costs to society from tying the two together this way as well as perverted outcomes and new rent seeking opportunities.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
a fan
Posts: 19547
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:05 pm

Re: The Biden - Harris Era.

Post by a fan »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:45 pm
a fan wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:36 pm
a fan wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:31 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:19 pm
I have no problem with government providing industry support to spur investment.... we do it all the time. I don't know if responding to a shortfall caused by a pandemic will provide the return to justify the investment. I am not saying it won't...I am saying I don't know. How as all the Enterprise Zone and Empowerment Zone money worked out? Those that didn't need it, often are the folks that benefit most with downside in their favor. That is all that bothers me. When do you think we will see critical quantity of supply move the market?
Ah, got it. To me? And I guess this is just me....Chip Act is designed to make us less dependent on China/Taiwan/other chip builders.

It's in the White House's own description of the Bill.

CHIPS and Science Act Will Lower Costs, Create Jobs, Strengthen Supply Chains, and Counter China


Pretty bold and overt move to tell China that the balance of trade is shifting in favor of the US, and shifting quickly. If I'm Xi? Unless I want my economy to fall apart, I'd think long and hard about irritating the United States. My view? Biden is doing what Trump only CLAIMED to do: stand up to China.

This really screws the Chinese long term. Long term meaning: 2-10 years.


The Zones are stupid. I'd MUCH rather they do it like Biden is: direct investment, take a cut of profits if they are there. I"m sure you've seen me ask 1,000 times why we don't do that with drug R&D funding and tax breaks.

People do NOT understand that a tax break is the exact same thing as spending, from the Treasury's point of view. But the on the ground difference between the two is stark.
And I should add: I'm sure there will be downsides to the bill. They're speeding permits for manufacturing, for example. That can go sideways in a hurry.
China is in much worst shape than we are as it relates to high value chip fabrication. Probably 10 years behind us as we limited their ability to rapidly build its industry. I have no problem with back up sources of supply and supply chain redundancy. COVID was probably just one aspect. Chips security is national security, so I understand it. China had the last jurisdiction to approve a $5B transaction in this space. They approved the deal because they are just as desperate for semi-conductors as the next country. It is going to be a while before we see the impact of it. I am all for anything that we can do create well paying jobs in this country. Better to be at the front of it than the end. I just want private industry to take on an appropriate amount of risk.
Understand now. Rational view. The part I'm trying to find clarity on is the US getting paid a chunk of "excessive profits". Can't find what that means yet.

I like that it unwinds the knot we're tying with China, even if just a bit. I have NO interest in real war with them. And imho, it would be wise to make it so that China taking over Taiwan would be a pointless and stupid thing for them to do.....brain drain.
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23816
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Biden - Harris Era.

Post by Farfromgeneva »

a fan wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:27 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 6:39 pm https://www.regions.com/-/media/pdfs/As ... -Cycle.pdf

For YE…..

The belief is that chips are more ubiquitous today and some of the historical cyclicality will be diminished. The $200B in spurred investment covers a lot of areas. I don’t like the United States government developing an investment thesis. Just me. There is a lot of time between here and there.
We tried the (relatively) free market....it all went overseas. How do you get domestic production without .gov intervention of some sort?

I can't figure how to do it.
Run it internally. Don’t pay private businesses to do it. That option exists. I don’t know how I feel about it but it exists. Otherwise we could outsource more military and toll roads to private sector but we choose to keep them govt owned and operated.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
a fan
Posts: 19547
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:05 pm

Re: The Biden - Harris Era.

Post by a fan »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 9:36 pm
a fan wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:27 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 6:39 pm https://www.regions.com/-/media/pdfs/As ... -Cycle.pdf

For YE…..

The belief is that chips are more ubiquitous today and some of the historical cyclicality will be diminished. The $200B in spurred investment covers a lot of areas. I don’t like the United States government developing an investment thesis. Just me. There is a lot of time between here and there.
We tried the (relatively) free market....it all went overseas. How do you get domestic production without .gov intervention of some sort?

I can't figure how to do it.
Run it internally. Don’t pay private businesses to do it. That option exists. I don’t know how I feel about it but it exists. Otherwise we could outsource more military and toll roads to private sector but we choose to keep them govt owned and operated.
R's would scream bloody murder. So would every chip company. Yep, it's an option.
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23816
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Biden - Harris Era.

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:14 pm These are some of the issues that concern me:

https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/11/2 ... -pub-88439

My view is that it isn't as easy as it seems and this $200B announcement is akin to GWB declaring victory over Iraq. There was a lot more work to be done. Started learning about the industry 5 years ago. The good thing is that the demand for product is growing globally. The variability in supply and demand should have less episodic attenuation. We may be catching it at the right time. I don't like making an investment thesis based on a novel global infectious disease. Hopefully there was more diligence because if we end up with a significant glut, someone will be paying the piper. I don't mind it if its, AMD, NVDA, INTC or AAPL for instance.... but Uncle Sam's downside should be limited. Getting a return is a step in the right direction... something like we did with TARP.
I made good money off the Tarp auctions. Govt left a s**ton on the table when they sold it all into private hands. Managed funds inside my B/D for a few asset managers and got 75bps + 20% over 8% on what started our small for a few Midwestern funds that really wanted a lookthrough on the banks bad debt assets but high water mark (tarp would get redeemed quickly often after being acquired at major discounts to par) of > $100mm invested.

I agree though this is reactionary not being proactive.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Typical Lax Dad
Posts: 34082
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:10 pm

Re: The Biden - Harris Era.

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

a fan wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 9:36 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:45 pm
a fan wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:36 pm
a fan wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:31 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:19 pm
I have no problem with government providing industry support to spur investment.... we do it all the time. I don't know if responding to a shortfall caused by a pandemic will provide the return to justify the investment. I am not saying it won't...I am saying I don't know. How as all the Enterprise Zone and Empowerment Zone money worked out? Those that didn't need it, often are the folks that benefit most with downside in their favor. That is all that bothers me. When do you think we will see critical quantity of supply move the market?
Ah, got it. To me? And I guess this is just me....Chip Act is designed to make us less dependent on China/Taiwan/other chip builders.

It's in the White House's own description of the Bill.

CHIPS and Science Act Will Lower Costs, Create Jobs, Strengthen Supply Chains, and Counter China


Pretty bold and overt move to tell China that the balance of trade is shifting in favor of the US, and shifting quickly. If I'm Xi? Unless I want my economy to fall apart, I'd think long and hard about irritating the United States. My view? Biden is doing what Trump only CLAIMED to do: stand up to China.

This really screws the Chinese long term. Long term meaning: 2-10 years.


The Zones are stupid. I'd MUCH rather they do it like Biden is: direct investment, take a cut of profits if they are there. I"m sure you've seen me ask 1,000 times why we don't do that with drug R&D funding and tax breaks.

People do NOT understand that a tax break is the exact same thing as spending, from the Treasury's point of view. But the on the ground difference between the two is stark.
And I should add: I'm sure there will be downsides to the bill. They're speeding permits for manufacturing, for example. That can go sideways in a hurry.
China is in much worst shape than we are as it relates to high value chip fabrication. Probably 10 years behind us as we limited their ability to rapidly build its industry. I have no problem with back up sources of supply and supply chain redundancy. COVID was probably just one aspect. Chips security is national security, so I understand it. China had the last jurisdiction to approve a $5B transaction in this space. They approved the deal because they are just as desperate for semi-conductors as the next country. It is going to be a while before we see the impact of it. I am all for anything that we can do create well paying jobs in this country. Better to be at the front of it than the end. I just want private industry to take on an appropriate amount of risk.
Understand now. Rational view. The part I'm trying to find clarity on is the US getting paid a chunk of "excessive profits". Can't find what that means yet.

I like that it unwinds the knot we're tying with China, even if just a bit. I have NO interest in real war with them. And imho, it would be wise to make it so that China taking over Taiwan would be a pointless and stupid thing for them to do.....brain drain.
Chips
This CSIS report from May 2020 discusses semiconductor exports to China. It cannot yet make advanced semiconductors and is spending billion to build its own industry. The U.S. decision about whether or not to allow sales is irrelevant to this. Continued sales will not disincentivize China. The debate over Huawei’s indigenous capabilities of a few years ago has largely ended; Huawei is dependent on U.S. sources of supply. A clear breakpoint would be to allow continued chip exports to Huawei for earlier generations of telecom equipment—3G and below. Export of chips that support 5G should not be allowed. Chips for 4G are an area of decreasing risk as the technology matures and is replaced by 5G, but concessions on allowing continued export of Chinese 4G products should be made in exchange of other considerations, such as agreements with allies (like Germany, which is still deploying 4G) on a broader China policy.

China is more dependent on us.
“I wish you would!”
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23816
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Biden - Harris Era.

Post by Farfromgeneva »

:twisted:
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:14 pm These are some of the issues that concern me:

https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/11/2 ... -pub-88439

My view is that it isn't as easy as it seems and this $200B announcement is akin to GWB declaring victory over Iraq. There was a lot more work to be done. Started learning about the industry 5 years ago. The good thing is that the demand for product is growing globally. The variability in supply and demand should have less episodic attenuation. We may be catching it at the right time. I don't like making an investment thesis based on a novel global infectious disease. Hopefully there was more diligence because if we end up with a significant glut, someone will be paying the piper. I don't mind it if its, AMD, NVDA, INTC or AAPL for instance.... but Uncle Sam's downside should be limited. Getting a return is a step in the right direction... something like we did with TARP.
Invest convertible preferred equity with liquidation preference into project specific siloed vehicles and fix the return like we do w the T&D side of utilities?
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Typical Lax Dad
Posts: 34082
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:10 pm

Re: The Biden - Harris Era.

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 9:43 pm :twisted:
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:14 pm These are some of the issues that concern me:

https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/11/2 ... -pub-88439

My view is that it isn't as easy as it seems and this $200B announcement is akin to GWB declaring victory over Iraq. There was a lot more work to be done. Started learning about the industry 5 years ago. The good thing is that the demand for product is growing globally. The variability in supply and demand should have less episodic attenuation. We may be catching it at the right time. I don't like making an investment thesis based on a novel global infectious disease. Hopefully there was more diligence because if we end up with a significant glut, someone will be paying the piper. I don't mind it if its, AMD, NVDA, INTC or AAPL for instance.... but Uncle Sam's downside should be limited. Getting a return is a step in the right direction... something like we did with TARP.
Invest convertible preferred equity with liquidation preference into project specific siloed vehicles and fix the return like we do w the T&D side of utilities?
Had we entered TPP, things would look much different. Building industry here is a good thing but we may be too reliant on people with fancy degrees from fancy schools with credentials to fill these high tech positions.
“I wish you would!”
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