All things CoronaVirus

[Typical Lax Dad]

As an anecdotal, and I am not a scientist, Dr., etc. In 1998, I was a USMCR with Weapons Company 25th Marines after 5.5 yrs in the tip of the spear with 1st Bn., 6th Marines 2MARDIV. Back then as a general rule, I never went to the doctor (my old sawbones dad was good enough). In the summer between my IL and 2L years at law school, I had the most ridiculous case of something (maybe narcolepsy (if that is a thing)). No energy, just wanted to nap, which I did all the time. It was brutal. I worried that I had Lyme, AIDs (had been to Olongapo City in 88), Cancer, Malaria, I literally just wanted to lay in bed and sleep forever. It lasted for a month or two. No f'n clue what was the cause (29 Palms water maybe), but I had something. Was really worried about my prospects for 2L. But I got over that just as fall semester started and I was good to go. Who the f' knows. All these Covid novel theories about permanent impacts on health, like Doc B sprouts, he has no clue.

Unknown,

This is a great post, thanks for the personal insight. These theories about permanent impacts on health, are just theories for now. It's the hyperfocus on this virus from the MSM that has unfortunately changed the way certain people accept the information that is disseminated.

Go Twins!
JoeMauer89!

The dangerous, ignorant misinformation here really needs to stop.

COVID-19 can permanently injure the lungs in some patients.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/ ... -the-lungs

Other COVID-19 patients have experienced cardiovascular complications like stroke.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/N ... 1599044905

Of course, there is nothing more permanent than death, and nearly 190,000 have died from COVID-19.

You two should be banned for your dangerously ignorant and misinformed posts. I know the Administrator is reluctant to do that, but a warning should at least be in order here.

There is nothing more dangerous than misinformation in a pandemic.

DocBarrister

The first 4 words from the linked article "Like other respiratory illnesses" sums up a lot of peoples feelings that surround COVID-19. I would bet everyone on this forum understands and appreciates that COVID-19 can harm individuals, but doesn't harm the vast majority, well over 99% of the population. We think there has been a gross over reach by government that has filtered thru the MSM and picked up by many.

It wasn't to long ago that the experts told us to wear rubber gloves for protection. We know now that this doesn't help protect the spread of the virus. There is plenty of misinformation to go around. But we do know, that if I don't want to get COVID I can shelter in place, never leave my home and live a very isolated life. If I want to take some risk I can leave my home and go about my daily routine.

Here is another example of the informed changing their opinions as to how to handle this virus.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/25/heal ... g-cdc.html

But please don't take away others opinions because you disagree with them.

Hope everyone stays healthy and safe.

1% of 330,000,000 = 3,300,000 dead Americans

[TNLAX]

As an anecdotal, and I am not a scientist, Dr., etc. In 1998, I was a USMCR with Weapons Company 25th Marines after 5.5 yrs in the tip of the spear with 1st Bn., 6th Marines 2MARDIV. Back then as a general rule, I never went to the doctor (my old sawbones dad was good enough). In the summer between my IL and 2L years at law school, I had the most ridiculous case of something (maybe narcolepsy (if that is a thing)). No energy, just wanted to nap, which I did all the time. It was brutal. I worried that I had Lyme, AIDs (had been to Olongapo City in 88), Cancer, Malaria, I literally just wanted to lay in bed and sleep forever. It lasted for a month or two. No f'n clue what was the cause (29 Palms water maybe), but I had something. Was really worried about my prospects for 2L. But I got over that just as fall semester started and I was good to go. Who the f' knows. All these Covid novel theories about permanent impacts on health, like Doc B sprouts, he has no clue.

Unknown,

This is a great post, thanks for the personal insight. These theories about permanent impacts on health, are just theories for now. It's the hyperfocus on this virus from the MSM that has unfortunately changed the way certain people accept the information that is disseminated.

Go Twins!
JoeMauer89!

The dangerous, ignorant misinformation here really needs to stop.

COVID-19 can permanently injure the lungs in some patients.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/ ... -the-lungs

Other COVID-19 patients have experienced cardiovascular complications like stroke.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/N ... 1599044905

Of course, there is nothing more permanent than death, and nearly 190,000 have died from COVID-19.

You two should be banned for your dangerously ignorant and misinformed posts. I know the Administrator is reluctant to do that, but a warning should at least be in order here.

There is nothing more dangerous than misinformation in a pandemic.

DocBarrister

The first 4 words from the linked article "Like other respiratory illnesses" sums up a lot of peoples feelings that surround COVID-19. I would bet everyone on this forum understands and appreciates that COVID-19 can harm individuals, but doesn't harm the vast majority, well over 99% of the population. We think there has been a gross over reach by government that has filtered thru the MSM and picked up by many.

It wasn't to long ago that the experts told us to wear rubber gloves for protection. We know now that this doesn't help protect the spread of the virus. There is plenty of misinformation to go around. But we do know, that if I don't want to get COVID I can shelter in place, never leave my home and live a very isolated life. If I want to take some risk I can leave my home and go about my daily routine.

Here is another example of the informed changing their opinions as to how to handle this virus.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/25/heal ... g-cdc.html

But please don't take away others opinions because you disagree with them.

Hope everyone stays healthy and safe.

1% of 330,000,000 = 3,300,000 dead Americans

The past ten years in the United States, we have averaged a little more than 2.8 million deaths. Will we have more deaths this year then we have had the past ten years? Maybe. But I would wager a dollar that if we do, it won't be dramatically higher, maybe 5% higher than average. We will have to wait and see.

1% of people who have had the corona virus have not died and will not die. Conservative estimates are that more than 50 million Americans have been exposed to the virus already.

[Matnum PI]

The past ten years in the United States, we have averaged a little more than 2.8 million deaths. Will we have more deaths this year then we have had the past ten years? Maybe. But I would wager a dollar that if we do, it won't be dramatically higher, maybe 5% higher than average. We will have to wait and see.

I don't think it makes sense to look at this virus this way. If there was a serial killer murdering teenage girls, we wouldn't say, So he murdered 37 girls! That's nothing! And substantially more than 37 people are dying. More than this, besides dying, we're still learning about respiratory and cardiac damage that is being done to people. People who are "fine" have developed very real internal damage with very real long-term consequences. We want to make light of the damage that this virus is doing but I believe this to be a mistake.

[Typical Lax Dad]

As an anecdotal, and I am not a scientist, Dr., etc. In 1998, I was a USMCR with Weapons Company 25th Marines after 5.5 yrs in the tip of the spear with 1st Bn., 6th Marines 2MARDIV. Back then as a general rule, I never went to the doctor (my old sawbones dad was good enough). In the summer between my IL and 2L years at law school, I had the most ridiculous case of something (maybe narcolepsy (if that is a thing)). No energy, just wanted to nap, which I did all the time. It was brutal. I worried that I had Lyme, AIDs (had been to Olongapo City in 88), Cancer, Malaria, I literally just wanted to lay in bed and sleep forever. It lasted for a month or two. No f'n clue what was the cause (29 Palms water maybe), but I had something. Was really worried about my prospects for 2L. But I got over that just as fall semester started and I was good to go. Who the f' knows. All these Covid novel theories about permanent impacts on health, like Doc B sprouts, he has no clue.

Unknown,

This is a great post, thanks for the personal insight. These theories about permanent impacts on health, are just theories for now. It's the hyperfocus on this virus from the MSM that has unfortunately changed the way certain people accept the information that is disseminated.

Go Twins!
JoeMauer89!

The dangerous, ignorant misinformation here really needs to stop.

COVID-19 can permanently injure the lungs in some patients.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/ ... -the-lungs

Other COVID-19 patients have experienced cardiovascular complications like stroke.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/N ... 1599044905

Of course, there is nothing more permanent than death, and nearly 190,000 have died from COVID-19.

You two should be banned for your dangerously ignorant and misinformed posts. I know the Administrator is reluctant to do that, but a warning should at least be in order here.

There is nothing more dangerous than misinformation in a pandemic.

DocBarrister

The first 4 words from the linked article "Like other respiratory illnesses" sums up a lot of peoples feelings that surround COVID-19. I would bet everyone on this forum understands and appreciates that COVID-19 can harm individuals, but doesn't harm the vast majority, well over 99% of the population. We think there has been a gross over reach by government that has filtered thru the MSM and picked up by many.

It wasn't to long ago that the experts told us to wear rubber gloves for protection. We know now that this doesn't help protect the spread of the virus. There is plenty of misinformation to go around. But we do know, that if I don't want to get COVID I can shelter in place, never leave my home and live a very isolated life. If I want to take some risk I can leave my home and go about my daily routine.

Here is another example of the informed changing their opinions as to how to handle this virus.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/25/heal ... g-cdc.html

But please don't take away others opinions because you disagree with them.

Hope everyone stays healthy and safe.

1% of 330,000,000 = 3,300,000 dead Americans

The past ten years in the United States, we have averaged a little more than 2.8 million deaths. Will we have more deaths this year then we have had the past ten years? Maybe. But I would wager a dollar that if we do, it won't be dramatically higher, maybe 5% higher than average. We will have to wait and see.

1% of people who have had the corona virus have not died and will not die. Conservative estimates are that more than 50 million Americans have been exposed to the virus already.

So let’s go to 6.1 million.

[DocBarrister]

As an anecdotal, and I am not a scientist, Dr., etc. In 1998, I was a USMCR with Weapons Company 25th Marines after 5.5 yrs in the tip of the spear with 1st Bn., 6th Marines 2MARDIV. Back then as a general rule, I never went to the doctor (my old sawbones dad was good enough). In the summer between my IL and 2L years at law school, I had the most ridiculous case of something (maybe narcolepsy (if that is a thing)). No energy, just wanted to nap, which I did all the time. It was brutal. I worried that I had Lyme, AIDs (had been to Olongapo City in 88), Cancer, Malaria, I literally just wanted to lay in bed and sleep forever. It lasted for a month or two. No f'n clue what was the cause (29 Palms water maybe), but I had something. Was really worried about my prospects for 2L. But I got over that just as fall semester started and I was good to go. Who the f' knows. All these Covid novel theories about permanent impacts on health, like Doc B sprouts, he has no clue.

Unknown,

This is a great post, thanks for the personal insight. These theories about permanent impacts on health, are just theories for now. It's the hyperfocus on this virus from the MSM that has unfortunately changed the way certain people accept the information that is disseminated.

Go Twins!
JoeMauer89!

The dangerous, ignorant misinformation here really needs to stop.

COVID-19 can permanently injure the lungs in some patients.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/ ... -the-lungs

Other COVID-19 patients have experienced cardiovascular complications like stroke.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/N ... 1599044905

Of course, there is nothing more permanent than death, and nearly 190,000 have died from COVID-19.

You two should be banned for your dangerously ignorant and misinformed posts. I know the Administrator is reluctant to do that, but a warning should at least be in order here.

There is nothing more dangerous than misinformation in a pandemic.

DocBarrister

The first 4 words from the linked article "Like other respiratory illnesses" sums up a lot of peoples feelings that surround COVID-19. I would bet everyone on this forum understands and appreciates that COVID-19 can harm individuals, but doesn't harm the vast majority, well over 99% of the population. We think there has been a gross over reach by government that has filtered thru the MSM and picked up by many.

It wasn't to long ago that the experts told us to wear rubber gloves for protection. We know now that this doesn't help protect the spread of the virus. There is plenty of misinformation to go around. But we do know, that if I don't want to get COVID I can shelter in place, never leave my home and live a very isolated life. If I want to take some risk I can leave my home and go about my daily routine.

Here is another example of the informed changing their opinions as to how to handle this virus.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/25/heal ... g-cdc.html

But please don't take away others opinions because you disagree with them.

Hope everyone stays healthy and safe.

1% of 330,000,000 = 3,300,000 dead Americans

The past ten years in the United States, we have averaged a little more than 2.8 million deaths. Will we have more deaths this year then we have had the past ten years? Maybe. But I would wager a dollar that if we do, it won't be dramatically higher, maybe 5% higher than average. We will have to wait and see.

1% of people who have had the corona virus have not died and will not die. Conservative estimates are that more than 50 million Americans have been exposed to the virus already.

About 3% of confirmed COVID-19 cases have already resulted in death. Even with the limited mitigation measures taken, 190,000 Americans have died. Without the mitigation measures, the death toll would have been many times that.

The callousness and indifference to the mass deaths of fellow Americans is truly repugnant and disturbing.

DocBarrister

[steel_hop]

As an anecdotal, and I am not a scientist, Dr., etc. In 1998, I was a USMCR with Weapons Company 25th Marines after 5.5 yrs in the tip of the spear with 1st Bn., 6th Marines 2MARDIV. Back then as a general rule, I never went to the doctor (my old sawbones dad was good enough). In the summer between my IL and 2L years at law school, I had the most ridiculous case of something (maybe narcolepsy (if that is a thing)). No energy, just wanted to nap, which I did all the time. It was brutal. I worried that I had Lyme, AIDs (had been to Olongapo City in 88), Cancer, Malaria, I literally just wanted to lay in bed and sleep forever. It lasted for a month or two. No f'n clue what was the cause (29 Palms water maybe), but I had something. Was really worried about my prospects for 2L. But I got over that just as fall semester started and I was good to go. Who the f' knows. All these Covid novel theories about permanent impacts on health, like Doc B sprouts, he has no clue.

Unknown,

This is a great post, thanks for the personal insight. These theories about permanent impacts on health, are just theories for now. It's the hyperfocus on this virus from the MSM that has unfortunately changed the way certain people accept the information that is disseminated.

Go Twins!
JoeMauer89!

The dangerous, ignorant misinformation here really needs to stop.

COVID-19 can permanently injure the lungs in some patients.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/ ... -the-lungs

Other COVID-19 patients have experienced cardiovascular complications like stroke.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/N ... 1599044905

Of course, there is nothing more permanent than death, and nearly 190,000 have died from COVID-19.

You two should be banned for your dangerously ignorant and misinformed posts. I know the Administrator is reluctant to do that, but a warning should at least be in order here.

There is nothing more dangerous than misinformation in a pandemic.

DocBarrister

Your last sentence almost reads like comedy because it ignores that fact that many viral/resipiratory diseases do the same thing as COVID. When you start posting about the long term consequences of those outbreaks then I'll be concerned that you are actually working in the same realm of reality as many of everyone else.

Of course, you still think DP still deserved to be coaching at Hopkins so that tells me alot about where you stand in the realm of reality.

[steel_hop]

The past ten years in the United States, we have averaged a little more than 2.8 million deaths. Will we have more deaths this year then we have had the past ten years? Maybe. But I would wager a dollar that if we do, it won't be dramatically higher, maybe 5% higher than average. We will have to wait and see.

I don't think it makes sense to look at this virus this way. If there was a serial killer murdering teenage girls, we wouldn't say, So he murdered 37 girls! That's nothing! And substantially more than 37 people are dying. More than this, besides dying, we're still learning about respiratory and cardiac damage that is being done to people. People who are "fine" have developed very real internal damage with very real long-term consequences. We want to make light of the damage that this virus is doing but I believe this to be a mistake.

Actually, that is exactly how you have to look at it because that is dealing with the virus in a context of how it impacts society. You can't just look at the deaths from the virus and not compare it to the deaths associated with lockdowns, SIP. Those actions also have unintended consequences like additional suicides, overdoses, increased crime, etc. but they won't get reported because many of those will happen out side the spotlight of the media. Those actions also have long term economic crises that will lead to additional problems.

Doc wants to bury his head in the sand like he does on almost every issue but for anyone under the age of 60 getting COVID is no more impactful in someone's odds of dying or getting a longterm illness than walking outside the door and interacting with other people. If he wants to stay sheltered - no one is going to stop him - but his concern from COVID ignores many other aspects.

[xxxxxxx]

The corona hysteria will drop off dramatically after the election regardless of who wins. If you can put thousands of students in dorms, dining halls and classrooms then they can play sports. I think the schools playing fall sports especially high profile ones like football need to be successful. So far I believe the jury is still out on that, and how much pressure it will put on administrators.

Around here outside of Philly kids have been playing sports all summer and you can't drive by a field without seeing someone on it playing something. I even know of a local wrestling tournament that was held in the area, talk about lack of social distancing.

I have two sons playing college lacrosse and they have been told by coaches that it is essentially up to them to act responsibly if they want to have a season. No large groups, stay within your pod, wash your hand etc. A tough ask but we will see. I also think these schools have a real incentive to not send kids home after a few weeks of school if they have a large outbreak, because no one would come back in January, they would lose the year. It would be the end for many schools already in precarious financial positions.

I am, also still a believer in a vaccine in late 2020 early 2021, and even with the anti vaccine crowd, if you want to go to college and play a sport you will be required to take it. Hoping for the best and setting odds on some type of spring season at 70 - 30 in favor for now.

[CU88]

Such bold leadership in Fla.

Three weeks into the school year, parents and teachers remain in the dark about how many COVID-19 cases exist within the Duval County School District. That's because the local Department of Health advised Duval Schools officials it couldn't publish cases tied to schools on its website before getting permission from the state.

Throughout Florida, there's confusion about what information is fair game and what those numbers even look like following the Florida Department of Health withdrawing its own public reports about the spread of the disease in schools — a decision that holds importance for families across the state as school re-openings in other districts continued this week.

The department's position to withhold COVID-19 data is at odds with federal guidance from the U.S. Department of Education, which says districts can report state numbers as long as they don't identify individual students, a potential health-privacy violation.

More:Jacksonville's latest education news

Asked about the blanket information blackout, a spokesman for the Florida Department of Health cited a state law that normally exempts such data from public disclosure. But that law also allows for the publication of health data "when necessary to public health." The department did not clarify the discrepancy in a series of email exchanges with the Times-Union.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news ... 446169001/

[Typical Lax Dad]

Good news

This is a big help.

[MDlaxfan76]

what science is settled?
and yeah, who said we won't figure it out?

This is all wrong


An infected person can’t contaminate another person. A mask doesn’t help at all.

who has said those things? did youth just say that?

(if he said it in times prior, i didn't pick up on it. but i didn't see him do it today fo sho)

You asked what science was settled

well, you said simply "masks".
so you know i think you missed there.

There is plenty of settled science regarding the virus but not all of the science is settled. Not sure of how many areas in science where it is completely settled. I believe some aspects of relativity are being questioned.

and one of those, to me at least, is how deep infection is. which relates to "immunity". at least for now. immunity also being something which isn't "settled". wasn't that the subject?
second waves then being brought up from previous pandemics. i hope they're not settled, too? or at least not as far along as gravity.

all of this stuff, again at least to me, is instructional and to inform decisions and opinions and predictive thought on where we may be going.

If you are referring to my reference to second waves, it was simply a rebuttal to the notion that pandemics typically just burn out after an initial burst. Just not factually correct.

Now, as to why that is, there may be conflicting theories, but we do need to base any such in observed reality, not wishful thinking.

There are number of open questions about immunity, as well as "herd immunity", and this particular virus.

Not that there isn't substantial evidence already that enables the scientists to rule some theories in or out of contention, but there's still unknown aspects, indeed that will not be known fully until viewed retrospectively.

I'm not a scientist! But I do work with many.
Like some on here, I'm interested enough to have spent some energy on trying to understand what is understood by the scientists in this field so far. My own awareness of the risks of this virus as very significant preceded many, simply because of a head start courtesy of my son's insights from Asia. And, unfortunately, that's meant my own predictions of what would be happening, given government and societal responses here over time, have been borne out.

On immunity and herd immunity, there are a number of factors that certainly deserve consideration.

At present, we don't know for a certainty how long a person who develops some level of immunity retains such immunity, nor why that may vary.

- There appears to be some evidence that immunity is not persistent over a long term, at least for some, but not enough data yet to be certain.

We also don't know yet whether any of our population already had some level of immunity (or resistance) to the virus.

- This is possible, but has not been demonstrated in any sort of study...we do see varying reactions to the virus, but we see both symptomatic and asymptomatic spread from carriers.

Likewise, we're not sure what % of the population has already been infected and has built some level of immunity.

- We certainly know that more people have been infected than have tested positive (6+ million in US), but we don't know for sure what multiple. Best estimates, though, is that we haven't reached 20% nationally, much less the 60-70% that theoretically creates sufficient 'herd immunity' that the virus has tremendous difficulty finding new hosts.

We don't know yet whether any of the vaccines enable us to generate substantial immunity, nor whether such will be persistent (just as we don't know if immunity from an infection is persistent).

- We're hearing that the earliest candidates will have relatively low levels of immunity generation, but hopefully to be sufficient to be worthwhile, and will likely require multiple doses. Conversely, later candidates have been theorized as perhaps being more effective and being single dose...but again, we won't know about persistent immunity without more time.

We also don't and won't know the long term risks of any particular vaccine (nor the long term impacts of an actual infection survived) without the benefit of time.

- We will likely take the risk of long term negative impacts of vaccines versus the risks of virus infection, but as this will likely be a voluntary process in the US, there's a good chance a large % of the population will opt out of being vaccinated, relying on their neighbor to do so rather than themselves...

Other factors?

[MDlaxfan76]

Good news

This is a big help.

Indeed, this is one of the areas where we've learned some best practices with severely ill patients. Death rates have indeed diminished per hospitalization.

[MDlaxfan76]

Such bold leadership in Fla.

Three weeks into the school year, parents and teachers remain in the dark about how many COVID-19 cases exist within the Duval County School District. That's because the local Department of Health advised Duval Schools officials it couldn't publish cases tied to schools on its website before getting permission from the state.

Throughout Florida, there's confusion about what information is fair game and what those numbers even look like following the Florida Department of Health withdrawing its own public reports about the spread of the disease in schools — a decision that holds importance for families across the state as school re-openings in other districts continued this week.

The department's position to withhold COVID-19 data is at odds with federal guidance from the U.S. Department of Education, which says districts can report state numbers as long as they don't identify individual students, a potential health-privacy violation.

More:Jacksonville's latest education news

Asked about the blanket information blackout, a spokesman for the Florida Department of Health cited a state law that normally exempts such data from public disclosure. But that law also allows for the publication of health data "when necessary to public health." The department did not clarify the discrepancy in a series of email exchanges with the Times-Union.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news ... 446169001/

gross. This is so obvious.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Good news

This is a big help.

Indeed, this is one of the areas where we've learned some best practices with severely ill patients. Death rates have indeed diminished per hospitalization.

Yes. I heard from a client that has a drug in a phase 3 trial for COVID-19 therapy and he said the use of steroids has reduced a lot of the pressure to deal with respiratory issues which is an area their drug targets. They are pushing forward because the government has basically mandated that they do so but it will not be a money maker for them if it gets final approval. We have gotten much better with dealing with the respiratory aspects of the disease.

[Matnum PI]

anyone under the age of 60 getting COVID is no more impactful in someone's odds of dying or getting a longterm illness than walking outside the door and interacting with other people.

This simply is not true.

[DocBarrister]

As an anecdotal, and I am not a scientist, Dr., etc. In 1998, I was a USMCR with Weapons Company 25th Marines after 5.5 yrs in the tip of the spear with 1st Bn., 6th Marines 2MARDIV. Back then as a general rule, I never went to the doctor (my old sawbones dad was good enough). In the summer between my IL and 2L years at law school, I had the most ridiculous case of something (maybe narcolepsy (if that is a thing)). No energy, just wanted to nap, which I did all the time. It was brutal. I worried that I had Lyme, AIDs (had been to Olongapo City in 88), Cancer, Malaria, I literally just wanted to lay in bed and sleep forever. It lasted for a month or two. No f'n clue what was the cause (29 Palms water maybe), but I had something. Was really worried about my prospects for 2L. But I got over that just as fall semester started and I was good to go. Who the f' knows. All these Covid novel theories about permanent impacts on health, like Doc B sprouts, he has no clue.

Unknown,

This is a great post, thanks for the personal insight. These theories about permanent impacts on health, are just theories for now. It's the hyperfocus on this virus from the MSM that has unfortunately changed the way certain people accept the information that is disseminated.

Go Twins!
JoeMauer89!

The dangerous, ignorant misinformation here really needs to stop.

COVID-19 can permanently injure the lungs in some patients.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/ ... -the-lungs

Other COVID-19 patients have experienced cardiovascular complications like stroke.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/N ... 1599044905

Of course, there is nothing more permanent than death, and nearly 190,000 have died from COVID-19.

You two should be banned for your dangerously ignorant and misinformed posts. I know the Administrator is reluctant to do that, but a warning should at least be in order here.

There is nothing more dangerous than misinformation in a pandemic.

DocBarrister

Your last sentence almost reads like comedy because it ignores that fact that many viral/resipiratory diseases do the same thing as COVID. When you start posting about the long term consequences of those outbreaks then I'll be concerned that you are actually working in the same realm of reality as many of everyone else.

Of course, you still think DP still deserved to be coaching at Hopkins so that tells me alot about where you stand in the realm of reality.

The 862,700+ dead people around the world and their loved ones will dispute your absurd assertion that COVID-19 is like other viral and respiratory illnesses. That death total is on its way to a million, even with the most extreme global mitigation effort in over a century.

You show little respect for the dead and the mass global suffering inflicted by SARS-CoV-2.

DocBarrister

[wgdsr]

what science is settled?
and yeah, who said we won't figure it out?

This is all wrong


An infected person can’t contaminate another person. A mask doesn’t help at all.

who has said those things? did youth just say that?

(if he said it in times prior, i didn't pick up on it. but i didn't see him do it today fo sho)

You asked what science was settled

well, you said simply "masks".
so you know i think you missed there.

There is plenty of settled science regarding the virus but not all of the science is settled. Not sure of how many areas in science where it is completely settled. I believe some aspects of relativity are being questioned.

and one of those, to me at least, is how deep infection is. which relates to "immunity". at least for now. immunity also being something which isn't "settled". wasn't that the subject?
second waves then being brought up from previous pandemics. i hope they're not settled, too? or at least not as far along as gravity.

all of this stuff, again at least to me, is instructional and to inform decisions and opinions and predictive thought on where we may be going.

If you are referring to my reference to second waves, it was simply a rebuttal to the notion that pandemics typically just burn out after an initial burst. Just not factually correct.

Now, as to why that is, there may be conflicting theories, but we do need to base any such in observed reality, not wishful thinking.

There are number of open questions about immunity, as well as "herd immunity", and this particular virus.

Not that there isn't substantial evidence already that enables the scientists to rule some theories in or out of contention, but there's still unknown aspects, indeed that will not be known fully until viewed retrospectively.

I'm not a scientist! But I do work with many.
Like some on here, I'm interested enough to have spent some energy on trying to understand what is understood by the scientists in this field so far. My own awareness of the risks of this virus as very significant preceded many, simply because of a head start courtesy of my son's insights from Asia. And, unfortunately, that's meant my own predictions of what would be happening, given government and societal responses here over time, have been borne out.

On immunity and herd immunity, there are a number of factors that certainly deserve consideration.

At present, we don't know for a certainty how long a person who develops some level of immunity retains such immunity, nor why that may vary.

- There appears to be some evidence that immunity is not persistent over a long term, at least for some, but not enough data yet to be certain.

We also don't know yet whether any of our population already had some level of immunity (or resistance) to the virus.

- This is possible, but has not been demonstrated in any sort of study...we do see varying reactions to the virus, but we see both symptomatic and asymptomatic spread from carriers.

Likewise, we're not sure what % of the population has already been infected and has built some level of immunity.

- We certainly know that more people have been infected than have tested positive (6+ million in US), but we don't know for sure what multiple. Best estimates, though, is that we haven't reached 20% nationally, much less the 60-70% that theoretically creates sufficient 'herd immunity' that the virus has tremendous difficulty finding new hosts.

We don't know yet whether any of the vaccines enable us to generate substantial immunity, nor whether such will be persistent (just as we don't know if immunity from an infection is persistent).

- We're hearing that the earliest candidates will have relatively low levels of immunity generation, but hopefully to be sufficient to be worthwhile, and will likely require multiple doses. Conversely, later candidates have been theorized as perhaps being more effective and being single dose...but again, we won't know about persistent immunity without more time.

We also don't and won't know the long term risks of any particular vaccine (nor the long term impacts of an actual infection survived) without the benefit of time.

- We will likely take the risk of long term negative impacts of vaccines versus the risks of virus infection, but as this will likely be a voluntary process in the US, there's a good chance a large % of the population will opt out of being vaccinated, relying on their neighbor to do so rather than themselves...

Other factors?

but what ya said was that it "seemed like the virus was running its course, like other viruses do". not that they "just burn out after an initial burst".

he can clarify, but he provided a link that might partially run on a theory related to some of what the nyt published several weeks ago (and other outlets have recently). i never saw the article previously, but it puts out a number of the possibles pos and neg in layman's terms.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/heal ... cells.html

again, he can clarify what he meant, and certainly not all pandemics have petered in the same way. not just for waves, but measures taken, transmissibility matters, a lot of things do. of course!

there are in fact a number of studies that have been done on the action of t cells and cross reactive. as the article notes some of. nothing near complete. i'd suggest someone ambitious could hire all the contract tracers to get a lot of numbers together and have confirmed/exposed/not "infected" lined up to measure how it is that some "got it" and some didn't. we'll continue to see more science work being done on this to help see what the "observed reality" is.

i could copy and paste the article for anyone that wants to see it and can't open it, but looks long.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Immune cells for common cold may recognize SARS-CoV-2

“We have now proven that, in some people, pre-existing T cell memory against common cold coronaviruses can cross-recognize SARS-CoV-2, down to the exact molecular structures,” Weiskopf says. “This could help explain why some people show milder symptoms of disease while others get severely sick.”

“It still remains to be addressed whether this immune memory reactivity influences clinical outcomes and translates into some degrees of protection from more severe disease,” adds Sette. “Having a strong T cell response, or a better T cell response may give you the opportunity to mount a much quicker and stronger response.”

[youthathletics]

what science is settled?
and yeah, who said we won't figure it out?

This is all wrong


An infected person can’t contaminate another person. A mask doesn’t help at all.

who has said those things? did youth just say that?

(if he said it in times prior, i didn't pick up on it. but i didn't see him do it today fo sho)

You asked what science was settled

well, you said simply "masks".
so you know i think you missed there.

There is plenty of settled science regarding the virus but not all of the science is settled. Not sure of how many areas in science where it is completely settled. I believe some aspects of relativity are being questioned.

and one of those, to me at least, is how deep infection is. which relates to "immunity". at least for now. immunity also being something which isn't "settled". wasn't that the subject?
second waves then being brought up from previous pandemics. i hope they're not settled, too? or at least not as far along as gravity.

all of this stuff, again at least to me, is instructional and to inform decisions and opinions and predictive thought on where we may be going.

If you are referring to my reference to second waves, it was simply a rebuttal to the notion that pandemics typically just burn out after an initial burst. Just not factually correct.

Now, as to why that is, there may be conflicting theories, but we do need to base any such in observed reality, not wishful thinking.

There are number of open questions about immunity, as well as "herd immunity", and this particular virus.

Not that there isn't substantial evidence already that enables the scientists to rule some theories in or out of contention, but there's still unknown aspects, indeed that will not be known fully until viewed retrospectively.

I'm not a scientist! But I do work with many.
Like some on here, I'm interested enough to have spent some energy on trying to understand what is understood by the scientists in this field so far. My own awareness of the risks of this virus as very significant preceded many, simply because of a head start courtesy of my son's insights from Asia. And, unfortunately, that's meant my own predictions of what would be happening, given government and societal responses here over time, have been borne out.

On immunity and herd immunity, there are a number of factors that certainly deserve consideration.

At present, we don't know for a certainty how long a person who develops some level of immunity retains such immunity, nor why that may vary.

- There appears to be some evidence that immunity is not persistent over a long term, at least for some, but not enough data yet to be certain.

We also don't know yet whether any of our population already had some level of immunity (or resistance) to the virus.

- This is possible, but has not been demonstrated in any sort of study...we do see varying reactions to the virus, but we see both symptomatic and asymptomatic spread from carriers.

Likewise, we're not sure what % of the population has already been infected and has built some level of immunity.

- We certainly know that more people have been infected than have tested positive (6+ million in US), but we don't know for sure what multiple. Best estimates, though, is that we haven't reached 20% nationally, much less the 60-70% that theoretically creates sufficient 'herd immunity' that the virus has tremendous difficulty finding new hosts.

We don't know yet whether any of the vaccines enable us to generate substantial immunity, nor whether such will be persistent (just as we don't know if immunity from an infection is persistent).

- We're hearing that the earliest candidates will have relatively low levels of immunity generation, but hopefully to be sufficient to be worthwhile, and will likely require multiple doses. Conversely, later candidates have been theorized as perhaps being more effective and being single dose...but again, we won't know about persistent immunity without more time.

We also don't and won't know the long term risks of any particular vaccine (nor the long term impacts of an actual infection survived) without the benefit of time.

- We will likely take the risk of long term negative impacts of vaccines versus the risks of virus infection, but as this will likely be a voluntary process in the US, there's a good chance a large % of the population will opt out of being vaccinated, relying on their neighbor to do so rather than themselves...

Other factors?

but what ya said was that it "seemed like the virus was running its course, like other viruses do". not that they "just burn out after an initial burst".

he can clarify, but he provided a link that might partially run on a theory related to some of what the nyt published several weeks ago (and other outlets have recently). i never saw the article previously, but it puts out a number of the possibles pos and neg in layman's terms.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/heal ... cells.html

again, he can clarify what he meant, and certainly not all pandemics have petered in the same way. not just for waves, but measures taken, transmissibility matters, a lot of things do. of course!

there are in fact a number of studies that have been done on the action of t cells and cross reactive. as the article notes some of. nothing near complete. i'd suggest someone ambitious could hire all the contract tracers to get a lot of numbers together and have confirmed/exposed/not "infected" lined up to measure how it is that some "got it" and some didn't. we'll continue to see more science work being done on this to help see what the "observed reality" is.

i could copy and paste the article for anyone that wants to see it and can't open it, but looks long.

Correct...the argument I cited was that this virus is demonstrating a following of the footsteps from "other" viruses/influenza (Hope-Simpson). There was a chart showing a comparative from 2003 SARS and CV-19, that looked very similar; Hope-Simpson.

[Bart]

https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercom ... cb8eba9d63

Thanks for this. The RAS has always been on my "list" of things that are out of whack, especially with how the virus binds to the cell. What I never thought of was Bradykinin. I am certainly glad there are smarter people than me looking a this thing.

Here is a link to a paper, small study, using a kinin receptor antagonist in the treatment of patients: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamane ... le/2769237