FanLax Computer has Princeton at #37. Just ahead of #38 Manhattan and #41 Monmouth. Ws and Ls. And Princeton's Ws are not that impressive...JustOneTime wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 10:55 am ...Marquette based on their win over Penn State should be in over Princeton.
Nice analysis and insightful. I do find RPI a little flawed with only 6-8 games played.rolldodge wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 11:15 am Trying something a little new this week, based on current RPI:
Top 5 RPI win = 4 points
Top 10 RPI win = 3 points
Top 20 RPI win = 2 points
Top 30 RPI win = 1 point
Top 40 RPI win = 0.5 points
All other wins = 0.25 point
Top 10 RPI loss = -0.5 points
Top 30 RPI loss = -1 point
All other losses = -2 points
Results:
( 10.5 ) Notre Dame 6-0 Marquette (1), Cleveland State (0.5), Georgetown (2), Maryland (3), Ohio State (2), Michigan (2)
(9.5) Duke 7-1 Bellarmine (0.5), High Point (0.5), Denver (2), Penn (2), Syracuse (0.5), Loyola (3), UNC (2) (Jacksonville -1)
(9) Penn State 5-2 Lafayette (0.25), Stony Brook(0.25), Yale (4), Penn (2), Cornell (4) (Villanova -0.5, Marquette -1)
(8.75) Cornell 5-1 Albany (0.25), Lehigh (2), Hobart (1), Ohio State (2), Yale (4) (Penn State -0.5)
(8.25) Virginia 6-1 Michigan (2), Harvard (1), Ohio State (2), Richmond (0.5), Hopkins(3), Towson (0.25) (Maryland -0.5)
(6.25) Villanova 6-1 Penn State (3), Delaware (1), Hofstra (0.25), Drexel (0.25), Penn (2), Monmouth (0.25) (Yale -0.5)
(5.75) Rutgers 7-1 Marist (0.25), Stony Brook (0.25), St John’s (0.25), Loyola (3), Utah (1), Princeton (1), UMass (1) (Army -1)
(5.25) Maryland 5-2 Richmond (0.5), Syracuse (0.5), Princeton (1), Albany (0.25), Virginia (4) (Loyola -0.5, Notre Dame -0.5)
(5.25) Loyola 5-2 Maryland (3), Hopkins (3), Towson (0.25), Lafayette (0.25), Bucknell (0.25) (Rutgers -1, Duke -0.5)
(5) Hopkins 7-3 Georgetown(2), Jacksonville (2), Utah (1), St Josephs (0.25), Syracuse (0.5), Delaware (1), Navy (0.25) (North Carolina -1, Loyola -0.5, UVA -0.5)
(5) Yale 3-2 Villanova (3), UMass (1), Denver (2) (Penn State -0.5, Cornell -0.5)
(4.75) Jacksonville 6-1 Marist (0.25), Duke (4), High Point (0.5), UMass Lowell (0.25), St Johns (0.25) (Hopkins -0.5)
(4) Army. 6-1 Rutgers (2), Wagner (0.25), Mercer (0.25), Holy Cross (0.25), Lafayette (0.25), Lehigh (2) (Umass -1)
(3.25) Denver 4-3 Utah (1), Merrimack (0.25), UNC (2), Ohio State (2) (Air Force -1, Duke -0.5, Yale -0.5)
(2.25) North Carolina 5-3 Mercer (0.25), Hopkins (3), Syracuse (0.5), Brown (0.5), Dartmouth (1) (Ohio State -1, Denver -1, Duke -1)
(2) Marquette 4-3 Lindwood (0.25), Michigan (2), Detroit (0.25), Penn State (3) (Utah -1, ND -0.5, Bellarmine -2)
(1.75) Penn 3-3 Georgetown (2), St Joe’s (0.25), Princeton (1) (Duke -0.5, Penn State -0.5, Villanova -0.5)
(1.75) Boston U 5-1 Bryant (2), UMass (1), Colgate (0.25), Bucknell (0.25), Holy Cross (0.25) (Vermont -2)
(1.75) Air Force 5-2 Denver (2), Colgate (0.25), Mercer (0.25), Bryant (2), Queens (0.25) (Ohio State -1, Stony Brook -2)
(0.75) Dartmouth 4-1 Merrimack (0.25), Holy Cross (0.25), Sienna (0.25), Hobart (1) (UNC -1)
(0.5) Michigan 4-3 Hofstra (0.25), Canisius (0.25), Delaware (1), Harvard (1) (Marquette -1, UVA -0.5, ND -0.5)
(0.5) Lehigh 5-2 Fairfield (0.25), Hobart (1), Navy (0.25), Bing (0.25), HC (0.25) (Cornell -0.5, Army -1)
(0.5) Bellarmine 5-2 St Bon (0.25), Canisius (0.25), Marist (0.25), VMI (0.25), Marquette (1) (Duke -0.5, Utah -1)
(0.5) Ohio State 4-4 Air Force (0.5), Cleveland State (0.25), UNC (2), Detroit (0.25) (UVA -0.5, Cornell -0.5, ND -0.5, Denver -1)
(0) Georgetown 3-3 Princeton (1), Richmond (0.5). High Point (0.5) (Hopkins -0.5, Penn -1, ND -0.5)
So let me ask you this: Neutral site, you're betting your mortgage (you lose your house if you bet wrong; you win the value of your house if you bet right).FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 1:14 pm Teams you've overrated, in order: Saint Joseph's and Princeton.
Team you've underrated: UMass.
How I see it, based on 3 Best Ws and 3 Worst Ls *using your rankings as the metric for what is a better and/or worse W/L*.
1 Notre Dame
...
23 Dartmouth
24 Air Force
25 Bryant
It is Princeton... if I were a predictive algorithm. I'm not programmed to predict the future. I'm programmed to evaluate the past. Based on their current resume, Bryant is "better" than Princeton. i.e. Bryant has a better resume and, for evaluative purposes, a better resume matters.
Do they, though? They have a significantly better record, sure, but against a significantly weaker schedule. I'm not sure if, one paper, their resume is better. They've just racked up wins against inferior opponents.FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 1:25 pmIt is Princeton... if I were a predictive algorithm. I'm not programmed to predict the future. I'm programmed to evaluate the past. Based on their current resume, Bryant is "better" than Princeton. i.e. Bryant has a better resume and, for evaluative purposes, a better resume matters.
With combined wins over Monmouth, Manhattan, Providence, Quinnapiac, Fairfield, and UMBC, neither of them deserves to be in the top 25.ICGrad wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 1:37 pmDo they, though? They have a significantly better record, sure, but against a significantly weaker schedule. I'm not sure if, one paper, their resume is better. They've just racked up wins against inferior opponents.FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 1:25 pmIt is Princeton... if I were a predictive algorithm. I'm not programmed to predict the future. I'm programmed to evaluate the past. Based on their current resume, Bryant is "better" than Princeton. i.e. Bryant has a better resume and, for evaluative purposes, a better resume matters.
Anyway, you said overrated, not over-ranked. Princeton is the better than either team. Ultimately, that is a factor I consider when I enter my rankings.
Princeton's Ws are ranked 37.
How do you evaluate “rock, paper, scissors” games? Same issue as faced here…FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 1:52 pmPrinceton's Ws are ranked 37.
Bryant's are ranked 25.
Dartmouth's are ranked 35.
That does not compute. What do you mean/What are you asking?PizzaSnake wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 2:22 pm How do you evaluate “rock, paper, scissors” games? Same issue as faced here…
3-2 Yale two slots ahead of 5-1 Cornell after Saturday's beatdown is hilarious.FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 1:14 pm Teams you've overrated, in order: Saint Joseph's and Princeton.
Team you've underrated: UMass.
How I see it, based on 3 Best Ws and 3 Worst Ls *using your rankings as the metric for what is a better and/or worse W/L*.
1 Notre Dame
2 Duke
3 Virginia
4 Villanova
5 Maryland
6 Penn State
7 Yale
8 Loyola
9 Cornell
10 Rutgers
11 Johns Hopkins
12 Penn
13 Jacksonville
14 North Carolina
15 Ohio State
16 Army
17 Denver
18 Georgetown
19 Michigan
20 UMass
21 Lehigh
22 Boston U
23 Dartmouth
24 Air Force
25 Bryant
“Some men disclaim certainty about anything. I am certain that they deceive themselves. Be that as it may, only the arrogant and foolish maintain that they are certain about everything. It is appropriate, therefore, to consider how judgments of uncertainty discriminate between hypotheses with respect to grades of uncertainty, probability, belief, or credence. Discriminations of this sort are relevant to the conduct of deliberations aimed at making choices between rival policies not only in the context of games of chance, but in moral, political, economic, or scientific decision making.”FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 2:31 pmThat does not compute. What do you mean/What are you asking?PizzaSnake wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 2:22 pm How do you evaluate “rock, paper, scissors” games? Same issue as faced here…
Yup. Yale has worse losses than Cornell but their better wins, puts them ahead of Cornell. Win percentage is a dull tool to evaluate teams. But, if you like to look at Win Percentages... Yale's 60% Win% is weaker than Cornell's 83% but Yale's current SOS (Strength of Schedule) is #1 while Cornell's is #15. SOS matters. Strength of wins matters.
Sometimes your algorithm spits out a result so ludicrous that it invalidates your entire algorithm. This is one of those times.Matnum PI wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 2:51 pmYup. Yale has worse losses than Cornell but their better wins, puts them ahead of Cornell. Win percentage is a dull tool to evaluate teams. But, if you like to look at Win Percentages... Yale's 60% Win% is weaker than Cornell's 83% but Yale's current SOS (Strength of Schedule) is #1 while Cornell's is #15. SOS matters. Strength of wins matters.