FanLax Forum Poll

[JustOneTime]

At this point of the year the rankings have to be about results and not about a teams "potential". Marquette based on their win over Penn State should be in over Princeton.

[Matnum PI]

...Marquette based on their win over Penn State should be in over Princeton.

FanLax Computer has Princeton at #37. Just ahead of #38 Manhattan and #41 Monmouth. Ws and Ls. And Princeton's Ws are not that impressive...

[rolldodge]

Trying something a little new this week, based on current RPI:

Top 5 RPI win = 4 points
Top 10 RPI win = 3 points
Top 20 RPI win = 2 points
Top 30 RPI win = 1 point
Top 40 RPI win = 0.5 points
All other wins = 0.25 point

Top 10 RPI loss = -0.5 points
Top 30 RPI loss = -1 point
All other losses = -2 points

Results:

( 10.5 ) Notre Dame 6-0 Marquette (1), Cleveland State (0.5), Georgetown (2), Maryland (3), Ohio State (2), Michigan (2)

(9.5) Duke 7-1 Bellarmine (0.5), High Point (0.5), Denver (2), Penn (2), Syracuse (0.5), Loyola (3), UNC (2) (Jacksonville -1)

(9) Penn State 5-2 Lafayette (0.25), Stony Brook(0.25), Yale (4), Penn (2), Cornell (4) (Villanova -0.5, Marquette -1)

(8.75) Cornell 5-1 Albany (0.25), Lehigh (2), Hobart (1), Ohio State (2), Yale (4) (Penn State -0.5)

(8.25) Virginia 6-1 Michigan (2), Harvard (1), Ohio State (2), Richmond (0.5), Hopkins(3), Towson (0.25) (Maryland -0.5)

(6.25) Villanova 6-1 Penn State (3), Delaware (1), Hofstra (0.25), Drexel (0.25), Penn (2), Monmouth (0.25) (Yale -0.5)

(5.75) Rutgers 7-1 Marist (0.25), Stony Brook (0.25), St John’s (0.25), Loyola (3), Utah (1), Princeton (1), UMass (1) (Army -1)

(5.25) Maryland 5-2 Richmond (0.5), Syracuse (0.5), Princeton (1), Albany (0.25), Virginia (4) (Loyola -0.5, Notre Dame -0.5)

(5.25) Loyola 5-2 Maryland (3), Hopkins (3), Towson (0.25), Lafayette (0.25), Bucknell (0.25) (Rutgers -1, Duke -0.5)

(5) Hopkins 7-3 Georgetown(2), Jacksonville (2), Utah (1), St Josephs (0.25), Syracuse (0.5), Delaware (1), Navy (0.25) (North Carolina -1, Loyola -0.5, UVA -0.5)

(5) Yale 3-2 Villanova (3), UMass (1), Denver (2) (Penn State -0.5, Cornell -0.5)

(4.75) Jacksonville 6-1 Marist (0.25), Duke (4), High Point (0.5), UMass Lowell (0.25), St Johns (0.25) (Hopkins -0.5)

(4) Army. 6-1 Rutgers (2), Wagner (0.25), Mercer (0.25), Holy Cross (0.25), Lafayette (0.25), Lehigh (2) (Umass -1)


(3.25) Denver 4-3 Utah (1), Merrimack (0.25), UNC (2), Ohio State (2) (Air Force -1, Duke -0.5, Yale -0.5)

(2.25) North Carolina 5-3 Mercer (0.25), Hopkins (3), Syracuse (0.5), Brown (0.5), Dartmouth (1) (Ohio State -1, Denver -1, Duke -1)

(2) Marquette 4-3 Lindwood (0.25), Michigan (2), Detroit (0.25), Penn State (3) (Utah -1, ND -0.5, Bellarmine -2)

(1.75) Penn 3-3 Georgetown (2), St Joe’s (0.25), Princeton (1) (Duke -0.5, Penn State -0.5, Villanova -0.5)

(1.75) Boston U 5-1 Bryant (2), UMass (1), Colgate (0.25), Bucknell (0.25), Holy Cross (0.25) (Vermont -2)

(1.75) Air Force 5-2 Denver (2), Colgate (0.25), Mercer (0.25), Bryant (2), Queens (0.25) (Ohio State -1, Stony Brook -2)

(0.75) Dartmouth 4-1 Merrimack (0.25), Holy Cross (0.25), Sienna (0.25), Hobart (1) (UNC -1)

(0.5) Michigan 4-3 Hofstra (0.25), Canisius (0.25), Delaware (1), Harvard (1) (Marquette -1, UVA -0.5, ND -0.5)

(0.5) Lehigh 5-2 Fairfield (0.25), Hobart (1), Navy (0.25), Bing (0.25), HC (0.25) (Cornell -0.5, Army -1)

(0.5) Bellarmine 5-2 St Bon (0.25), Canisius (0.25), Marist (0.25), VMI (0.25), Marquette (1) (Duke -0.5, Utah -1)

(0.5) Ohio State 4-4 Air Force (0.5), Cleveland State (0.25), UNC (2), Detroit (0.25) (UVA -0.5, Cornell -0.5, ND -0.5, Denver -1)

(0) Georgetown 3-3 Princeton (1), Richmond (0.5). High Point (0.5) (Hopkins -0.5, Penn -1, ND -0.5)

[Matnum PI]

Trying something a little new this week, based on current RPI:

Interesting...

[DU-fan]

Trying something a little new this week, based on current RPI:

Top 5 RPI win = 4 points
Top 10 RPI win = 3 points
Top 20 RPI win = 2 points
Top 30 RPI win = 1 point
Top 40 RPI win = 0.5 points
All other wins = 0.25 point

Top 10 RPI loss = -0.5 points
Top 30 RPI loss = -1 point
All other losses = -2 points

Results:

( 10.5 ) Notre Dame 6-0 Marquette (1), Cleveland State (0.5), Georgetown (2), Maryland (3), Ohio State (2), Michigan (2)

(9.5) Duke 7-1 Bellarmine (0.5), High Point (0.5), Denver (2), Penn (2), Syracuse (0.5), Loyola (3), UNC (2) (Jacksonville -1)

(9) Penn State 5-2 Lafayette (0.25), Stony Brook(0.25), Yale (4), Penn (2), Cornell (4) (Villanova -0.5, Marquette -1)

(8.75) Cornell 5-1 Albany (0.25), Lehigh (2), Hobart (1), Ohio State (2), Yale (4) (Penn State -0.5)

(8.25) Virginia 6-1 Michigan (2), Harvard (1), Ohio State (2), Richmond (0.5), Hopkins(3), Towson (0.25) (Maryland -0.5)

(6.25) Villanova 6-1 Penn State (3), Delaware (1), Hofstra (0.25), Drexel (0.25), Penn (2), Monmouth (0.25) (Yale -0.5)

(5.75) Rutgers 7-1 Marist (0.25), Stony Brook (0.25), St John’s (0.25), Loyola (3), Utah (1), Princeton (1), UMass (1) (Army -1)

(5.25) Maryland 5-2 Richmond (0.5), Syracuse (0.5), Princeton (1), Albany (0.25), Virginia (4) (Loyola -0.5, Notre Dame -0.5)

(5.25) Loyola 5-2 Maryland (3), Hopkins (3), Towson (0.25), Lafayette (0.25), Bucknell (0.25) (Rutgers -1, Duke -0.5)

(5) Hopkins 7-3 Georgetown(2), Jacksonville (2), Utah (1), St Josephs (0.25), Syracuse (0.5), Delaware (1), Navy (0.25) (North Carolina -1, Loyola -0.5, UVA -0.5)

(5) Yale 3-2 Villanova (3), UMass (1), Denver (2) (Penn State -0.5, Cornell -0.5)

(4.75) Jacksonville 6-1 Marist (0.25), Duke (4), High Point (0.5), UMass Lowell (0.25), St Johns (0.25) (Hopkins -0.5)

(4) Army. 6-1 Rutgers (2), Wagner (0.25), Mercer (0.25), Holy Cross (0.25), Lafayette (0.25), Lehigh (2) (Umass -1)


(3.25) Denver 4-3 Utah (1), Merrimack (0.25), UNC (2), Ohio State (2) (Air Force -1, Duke -0.5, Yale -0.5)

(2.25) North Carolina 5-3 Mercer (0.25), Hopkins (3), Syracuse (0.5), Brown (0.5), Dartmouth (1) (Ohio State -1, Denver -1, Duke -1)

(2) Marquette 4-3 Lindwood (0.25), Michigan (2), Detroit (0.25), Penn State (3) (Utah -1, ND -0.5, Bellarmine -2)

(1.75) Penn 3-3 Georgetown (2), St Joe’s (0.25), Princeton (1) (Duke -0.5, Penn State -0.5, Villanova -0.5)

(1.75) Boston U 5-1 Bryant (2), UMass (1), Colgate (0.25), Bucknell (0.25), Holy Cross (0.25) (Vermont -2)

(1.75) Air Force 5-2 Denver (2), Colgate (0.25), Mercer (0.25), Bryant (2), Queens (0.25) (Ohio State -1, Stony Brook -2)

(0.75) Dartmouth 4-1 Merrimack (0.25), Holy Cross (0.25), Sienna (0.25), Hobart (1) (UNC -1)

(0.5) Michigan 4-3 Hofstra (0.25), Canisius (0.25), Delaware (1), Harvard (1) (Marquette -1, UVA -0.5, ND -0.5)

(0.5) Lehigh 5-2 Fairfield (0.25), Hobart (1), Navy (0.25), Bing (0.25), HC (0.25) (Cornell -0.5, Army -1)

(0.5) Bellarmine 5-2 St Bon (0.25), Canisius (0.25), Marist (0.25), VMI (0.25), Marquette (1) (Duke -0.5, Utah -1)

(0.5) Ohio State 4-4 Air Force (0.5), Cleveland State (0.25), UNC (2), Detroit (0.25) (UVA -0.5, Cornell -0.5, ND -0.5, Denver -1)

(0) Georgetown 3-3 Princeton (1), Richmond (0.5). High Point (0.5) (Hopkins -0.5, Penn -1, ND -0.5)

Nice analysis and insightful. I do find RPI a little flawed with only 6-8 games played.

[rolldodge]

Nice analysis and insightful. I do find RPI a little flawed with only 6-8 games played.

Thanks. Yeah, would be interesting to see the same with Massey. But I decided on RPI since that is what the committee uses to break out the tiers of wins/losses.

[Matnum PI]

[HGK]

Looks like Penn, UNC and Georgetown had the greatest dispersion of teams ranked in every one’s polls.

Penn high 13th and low 20th.

UNC high 11th and low 19th.

Georgetown high 12th and low 25th.

[FanLax Computer]

Teams you've overrated, in order: Saint Joseph's and Princeton.
Team you've underrated: UMass.

How I see it, based on 3 Best Ws and 3 Worst Ls *using your rankings as the metric for what is a better and/or worse W/L*.

1 Notre Dame
2 Duke
3 Virginia
4 Villanova
5 Maryland
6 Penn State
7 Yale
8 Loyola
9 Cornell
10 Rutgers
11 Johns Hopkins
12 Penn
13 Jacksonville
14 North Carolina
15 Ohio State
16 Army
17 Denver
18 Georgetown
19 Michigan
20 UMass
21 Lehigh
22 Boston U
23 Dartmouth
24 Air Force
25 Bryant

[ICGrad]

Teams you've overrated, in order: Saint Joseph's and Princeton.
Team you've underrated: UMass.

How I see it, based on 3 Best Ws and 3 Worst Ls *using your rankings as the metric for what is a better and/or worse W/L*.

1 Notre Dame
...
23 Dartmouth
24 Air Force
25 Bryant

So let me ask you this: Neutral site, you're betting your mortgage (you lose your house if you bet wrong; you win the value of your house if you bet right).

Princeton v. Bryant: Who are you taking?
Princeton v. Dartmouth: Who are you taking.

If the answer to either is Princeton, then they aren't overrated (according to your own metrics).

[FanLax Computer]

Princeton v. Bryant: Who are you taking?
Princeton v. Dartmouth: Who are you taking.

If the answer to either is Princeton, then they aren't overrated (according to your own metrics).

It is Princeton... if I were a predictive algorithm. I'm not programmed to predict the future. I'm programmed to evaluate the past. Based on their current resume, Bryant is "better" than Princeton. i.e. Bryant has a better resume and, for evaluative purposes, a better resume matters.

[ICGrad]

Princeton v. Bryant: Who are you taking?
Princeton v. Dartmouth: Who are you taking.

If the answer to either is Princeton, then they aren't overrated (according to your own metrics).

It is Princeton... if I were a predictive algorithm. I'm not programmed to predict the future. I'm programmed to evaluate the past. Based on their current resume, Bryant is "better" than Princeton. i.e. Bryant has a better resume and, for evaluative purposes, a better resume matters.

Do they, though? They have a significantly better record, sure, but against a significantly weaker schedule. I'm not sure if, one paper, their resume is better. They've just racked up wins against inferior opponents.

Anyway, you said overrated, not over-ranked. Princeton is the better than either team. Ultimately, that is a factor I consider when I enter my rankings.

[rolldodge]

Princeton v. Bryant: Who are you taking?
Princeton v. Dartmouth: Who are you taking.

If the answer to either is Princeton, then they aren't overrated (according to your own metrics).

It is Princeton... if I were a predictive algorithm. I'm not programmed to predict the future. I'm programmed to evaluate the past. Based on their current resume, Bryant is "better" than Princeton. i.e. Bryant has a better resume and, for evaluative purposes, a better resume matters.

Do they, though? They have a significantly better record, sure, but against a significantly weaker schedule. I'm not sure if, one paper, their resume is better. They've just racked up wins against inferior opponents.

Anyway, you said overrated, not over-ranked. Princeton is the better than either team. Ultimately, that is a factor I consider when I enter my rankings.

With combined wins over Monmouth, Manhattan, Providence, Quinnapiac, Fairfield, and UMBC, neither of them deserves to be in the top 25.

[FanLax Computer]

Do they, though? They have a significantly better record, sure, but against a significantly weaker schedule. I'm not sure if, one paper, their resume is better. They've just racked up wins against inferior opponents.

Princeton's Ws are ranked 37.
Bryant's are ranked 25.
Dartmouth's are ranked 35.

[PizzaSnake]

Do they, though? They have a significantly better record, sure, but against a significantly weaker schedule. I'm not sure if, one paper, their resume is better. They've just racked up wins against inferior opponents.

Princeton's Ws are ranked 37.
Bryant's are ranked 25.
Dartmouth's are ranked 35.

How do you evaluate “rock, paper, scissors” games? Same issue as faced here…

[FanLax Computer]

How do you evaluate “rock, paper, scissors” games? Same issue as faced here…

That does not compute. What do you mean/What are you asking?

[Gobigred]

Teams you've overrated, in order: Saint Joseph's and Princeton.
Team you've underrated: UMass.

How I see it, based on 3 Best Ws and 3 Worst Ls *using your rankings as the metric for what is a better and/or worse W/L*.

1 Notre Dame
2 Duke
3 Virginia
4 Villanova
5 Maryland
6 Penn State
7 Yale
8 Loyola
9 Cornell
10 Rutgers
11 Johns Hopkins
12 Penn
13 Jacksonville
14 North Carolina
15 Ohio State
16 Army
17 Denver
18 Georgetown
19 Michigan
20 UMass
21 Lehigh
22 Boston U
23 Dartmouth
24 Air Force
25 Bryant

3-2 Yale two slots ahead of 5-1 Cornell after Saturday's beatdown is hilarious.

[PizzaSnake]

How do you evaluate “rock, paper, scissors” games? Same issue as faced here…

That does not compute. What do you mean/What are you asking?

“Some men disclaim certainty about anything. I am certain that they deceive themselves. Be that as it may, only the arrogant and foolish maintain that they are certain about everything. It is appropriate, therefore, to consider how judgments of uncertainty discriminate between hypotheses with respect to grades of uncertainty, probability, belief, or credence. Discriminations of this sort are relevant to the conduct of deliberations aimed at making choices between rival policies not only in the context of games of chance, but in moral, political, economic, or scientific decision making.”

https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/ab ... F621FAE229

[Matnum PI]

3-2 Yale two slots ahead of 5-1 Cornell after Saturday's beatdown is hilarious.

Yup. Yale has worse losses than Cornell but their better wins, puts them ahead of Cornell. Win percentage is a dull tool to evaluate teams. But, if you like to look at Win Percentages... Yale's 60% Win% is weaker than Cornell's 83% but Yale's current SOS (Strength of Schedule) is #1 while Cornell's is #15. SOS matters. Strength of wins matters.

[ICGrad]

3-2 Yale two slots ahead of 5-1 Cornell after Saturday's beatdown is hilarious.

Yup. Yale has worse losses than Cornell but their better wins, puts them ahead of Cornell. Win percentage is a dull tool to evaluate teams. But, if you like to look at Win Percentages... Yale's 60% Win% is weaker than Cornell's 83% but Yale's current SOS (Strength of Schedule) is #1 while Cornell's is #15. SOS matters. Strength of wins matters.

Sometimes your algorithm spits out a result so ludicrous that it invalidates your entire algorithm. This is one of those times.

Back to the drawing board, I guess.

EDIT: You conveniently sidestep the elephant in the room (and the main point of the poster that you were responding to) that it isn't just about win percentage; it's the fact that Cornell went up to Yale and completely dismantled them 2 days ago. They won by 10 and it wasn't even that close. It was an annihilation.