LaxPower Back-Up Stick

While on Cornell (of course), its interesting right now in the Media poll, that they are ranked ABOVE, Syracuse, a team they lost to, be it on the road, BUT ranked behind ND, a team they BEAT on the ROAD.

Doesnt mean anything Bracketology wise, but I guess the voters view the Loss by Syracuse to NC as more devastating than a loss by ND to Cornell.

GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

Great explanation, thanks!

We have similar views, just of different teams. Basically everything you just said about Cornell, would be why I am not overly optimistic about Hopkins getting in if they lose on Thursday. I suspect that there will be some team, somewhere stealing at AQ that bumps the suspected "last team in" out of the tournament.

Hawkeye wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:59 pm Great explanation, thanks!

We have similar views, just of different teams. Basically everything you just said about Cornell, would be why I am not overly optimistic about Hopkins getting in if they lose on Thursday. I suspect that there will be some team, somewhere stealing at AQ that bumps the suspected "last team in" out of the tournament.

Hawk, I feel the same way about Cornell. I am praying (like last year), that they simply WIN the ILT, and take it out of the committee's hand.

Good luck to the Jays in their rematch. If they play like Saturday, they will be very tough to beat.

GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

laxreference wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:52 pmLoyola loses the PL (34.7% chance)
Towson loses the CAA (69.4% chance; and RPI suggests that they would probably get in over a Cornell team that loses to Yale)
Brown wins the Ivy (4.8% chance)
Rutgers wins the Big Ten (4.1% chance)

Thinking back to our probability lessons, since all those events are independent the chance that none of those things happen is (someone check my math to make sure I'm explaining this right - looking at you CU77):

(1-.347)*(1-.694)*(1-.048)*(1-.041) = 18%

Correct!

But I think you're over-emphasizing RPI. With a loss to Yale, Cornell is likely to have the #3 SOS in the nation (per laxbytes simulator). SOS (as computed via the NCAA methodology, which laxbytes does) is a separate selection criterion, and indeed the first criterion on the list of criteria (though they are not rank ordered). IMO, it is very unlikely that the selection committee would leave out the team with the #3 SOS and a #12 or so RPI.

I

CU77 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2019 4:33 pm
But I think you're over-emphasizing RPI. With a loss to Yale, Cornell is likely to have the #3 SOS in the nation (per laxbytes simulator). SOS (as computed via the NCAA methodology, which laxbytes does) is a separate selection criterion, and indeed the first criterion on the list of criteria (though they are not rank ordered). IMO, it is very unlikely that the selection committee would leave out the team with the #3 SOS and a #12 or so RPI.

That is certainly possible. It would be great to have another data point to show how they weight RPI vs SOS. As an impartial observer, here's hoping that JHU finishes with a higher RPI and Cornell with a higher SOS.

Just curious, what do you think about the methodology they use to calculate SOS?

Dumb in a number of ways, like everything the NCAA does with statistics.

So the math above, the good analysis above shows, I think, Syracuse - not Cornell, not Towson - bumps off Hopkins for the final spot.

‘Course, the best laid plans.

With the regular season behind us most of the polls have aligned on a top three of 1) Penn State, 2) Yale, 3) Penn. Very interesting that Penn State beat Penn, Yale beat Penn State, and Penn beat Yale. What a round robin of supremacy. Should be great post season. I sure hope Yale and Penn get to meet in the ILT with the winner facing Penn State in the NCAAs (maybe final 4).

10stone5 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:56 pm So the math above, the good analysis shows, I think, Syracuse - not Cornell, not Towson - bumps off Hopkins for the final spot.

Very interesting conclusion, most people see Syracuse as safely in. Maybe the last of the teams safely in, but safely in nonetheless.

10stone5 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:56 pm So the math above, the good analysis above shows, I think, Syracuse - not Cornell, not Towson - bumps off Hopkins for the final spot.

‘Course, the best laid plans.

Stop. Syracuse is in. Maybe they blew a game at the Dome, but they are surely in. Last Team in comes down to Cornell, Towson, and Hopkins, and if we see alot of upsets in the league tournaments, possibly, if we are lucky, only 1 gets in. I sure hope my beloved Cornell can pull off a miracle this weekend, and beat #3 and #2. Nailbiting time here in Ithaca.

GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

Cornell will have to shoot 40% and be at 60 % in saves to have a shot. Emo has to execute. Your not going to see the ball. Last game, 14-8 after three quarters. Plus they have some people w seasoning/experience.

Hawkeye wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:03 pm

10stone5 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:56 pm So the math above, the good analysis shows, I think, Syracuse - not Cornell, not Towson - bumps off Hopkins for the final spot.

Very interesting conclusion, most people see Syracuse as safely in. Maybe the last of the teams safely in, but safely in nonetheless.

As a Syracuse fan I can certainly admit that the UNC loss was a killer when it comes to seeding and cost SU a chance to maybe get up to a 4 or 5 seed had things broken right and probably will cost them a home game period. Still I don't see any scenario where SU isn't safely in. They/We don't have the multiple top 5 wins that we usually do but we do have one over Duke and own a win over pretty much every bubble team ie Cornell, Hopkins, Rutty, SU also had a top 10 RPI and top 5/6 SOS. There in.

JeremyCuse wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:47 am As a Syracuse fan I can certainly admit that the UNC loss was a killer when it comes to seeding and cost SU a chance to maybe get up to a 4 or 5 seed had things broken right and probably will cost them a home game period. Still I don't see any scenario where SU isn't safely in. They/We don't have the multiple top 5 wins that we usually do but we do have one over Duke and own a win over pretty much every bubble team ie Cornell, Hopkins, Rutty, SU also had a top 10 RPI and top 5/6 SOS. There in.

As of now Syracuse's at-large odds are ranked 11th on this list at laxbytes:

http://laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/ncaapb01.php

Hope for no upsets in the league tournaments.

RPI is ridiculous. Because there are only 70 plus teams, it's harder to see. And even with D3, it's worse but not clearly flawed. And then you do it with HS and it's clear as day. Come Sunday, we'll need a tool that allows for fine-tuning and RPI is not that tool.

admin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 9:55 am RPI is ridiculous. Because there are only 70 plus teams, it's harder to see. And even with D3, it's worse but not clearly flawed. And then you do it with HS and it's clear as day. Come Sunday, we'll need a tool that allows for fine-tuning and RPI is not that tool.

What is your objection to RPI. What sort of problems do you see it causing?

Look @ Maryland’s resume. A team who has been top5 all year has a win over PENN. Villanova is not getting in, just lost to Providence. People question SU. Should Maryland have a home game?

conceptually, if we look at my 10-2 record vs. teams that are 10-2 who beat teams that are 10-2, i must be pretty good. but this isn't necessarily true. for HS teams, it's a mess. there are 10-2 teams that plays 10-2s that play 10-2s that are awful. Conversely, there are 6-6 teams that play 6-6s that play 6-6s that are pretty good and most certainly better than these 10-2s. So, you might say, but this is only true because a team is 10-2 in Iowa while a team is 6-6 in NY/MD and they have zero contact with each other. and this is true but... I think this phenomena is only exaggerated with HS lacrosse with so many disparate teams. i.e. This phenomena is also true for D1 Men. It's just less obvious.

Mr. Putt, I think so. not because they had such an amazing season but because amazing is relative.

Gobigred wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 9:24 am

JeremyCuse wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:47 am As a Syracuse fan I can certainly admit that the UNC loss was a killer when it comes to seeding and cost SU a chance to maybe get up to a 4 or 5 seed had things broken right and probably will cost them a home game period. Still I don't see any scenario where SU isn't safely in. They/We don't have the multiple top 5 wins that we usually do but we do have one over Duke and own a win over pretty much every bubble team ie Cornell, Hopkins, Rutty, SU also had a top 10 RPI and top 5/6 SOS. There in.

As of now Syracuse's at-large odds are ranked 11th on this list at laxbytes:

http://laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/ncaapb01.php

Hope for no upsets in the league tournaments.

No offense to laxbytes but its hard to take that seriously when they have Cornell with a higher at large % then Syracuse. I would be shocked if Syracuse wasn't in the tournament regardless of what happens in the league tournaments

What I'm seeing from this thread and other sites is basically if Loyola, Towson, anyone but Rutgers and anyone but Brown win those 4 conferences there is no bubble so to speak. Hopkins/Cornell are the last two at larges and are far better than Ohio State or the Big East losers so there is no real decision. If Towson loses to UMass it gets interesting between those three teams and if Loyola loses then one of Hopkins or Cornell misses out. Hopkins winning again Thursday probably puts them solidly in and also drops Maryland out of the seeds possibly. All this to say the biggest game of the weekend if it gets there will be Towson vs UMass.