LaxPower Back-Up Stick

Posted: **Sat Mar 18, 2023 6:24 pm**

MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 6:16 pm
keno in reno wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 5:47 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 5:42 pm Was Trader injured? Redd and Lacey seemed to play most of the 4th quarter and OT. Tills even put McDonald at short stick in the second half…
He played, but didn't stand out which is not a bad thing as ssdm. Interestingly, Miezan was a ghost in the 2nd half after it looked like he was about to become Paul Rabil junior in the 1st.
Yeah - I meant was he injured during the game. I barely saw him in the second half…

He didn't play in the 2nd half. McDonald took runs with a short stick in the 2nd half.

Posted: **Sat Mar 18, 2023 7:23 pm**

Wheels wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 6:24 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 6:16 pm
keno in reno wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 5:47 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 5:42 pm Was Trader injured? Redd and Lacey seemed to play most of the 4th quarter and OT. Tills even put McDonald at short stick in the second half…
He played, but didn't stand out which is not a bad thing as ssdm. Interestingly, Miezan was a ghost in the 2nd half after it looked like he was about to become Paul Rabil junior in the 1st.
Yeah - I meant was he injured during the game. I barely saw him in the second half…
He didn't play in the 2nd half. McDonald took runs with a short stick in the 2nd half.

So... would you know why?

Posted: **Sat Mar 18, 2023 7:50 pm**

I was laser focused on #36 on #1; didn't even notice who covered Schutz. I assume it was Makar, whoever did is a superstar. That is a brutal assignment.

Posted: **Sat Mar 18, 2023 7:51 pm**

MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 7:23 pm
Wheels wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 6:24 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 6:16 pm
keno in reno wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 5:47 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 5:42 pm Was Trader injured? Redd and Lacey seemed to play most of the 4th quarter and OT. Tills even put McDonald at short stick in the second half…
He played, but didn't stand out which is not a bad thing as ssdm. Interestingly, Miezan was a ghost in the 2nd half after it looked like he was about to become Paul Rabil junior in the 1st.
Yeah - I meant was he injured during the game. I barely saw him in the second half…
He didn't play in the 2nd half. McDonald took runs with a short stick in the 2nd half.
So... would you know why?

Mid-week knee injury. Must not have been serious enough to keep him out, although if you noticed, he had a heavy wrap on one of his legs.

Posted: **Sat Mar 18, 2023 10:32 pm**

keno in reno wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 7:50 pm I was laser focused on #36 on #1; didn't even notice who covered Schutz. I assume it was Makar, whoever did is a superstar. That is a brutal assignment.

Makar mostly covered Dickson. McDonald covered Schutz when he had the pole.

Posted: **Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:48 pm**

So the Terps split with ND and Virginia in two wild OT games. If they win both, they are probably the consensus #1 team in the nation.

If they lose both, there is a reasonable chance they don't make the tournament, even if they go 4-1 in the B1G. All of their other non-con wins are not looking great; Syracuse is now 4-4 after the hot start, and is 0-4 against the the B1G and ACC. Princeton is 2-4, with no quality wins. Richmond is down a bit this year, UAlbany was never expected to be a quality win. Their resume would look pretty similar to ND last year.

That series of saves by Ruppel looks bigger and bigger.

Posted: **Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:59 pm**

MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:48 pm So the Terps split with ND and Virginia in two wild OT games. If they win both, they are probably the consensus #1 team in the nation.

If they lose both, there is a reasonable chance they don't make the tournament, even if they go 4-1 in the B1G.

If they go 4-1 in the B1G they're making the tournament regardless of the outcome of the ND/UVA games. That's four likely top 20 wins right there and a few of them have a chance to be top 5 or 10.

Posted: **Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:43 pm**

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:59 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:48 pm So the Terps split with ND and Virginia in two wild OT games. If they win both, they are probably the consensus #1 team in the nation.

If they lose both, there is a reasonable chance they don't make the tournament, even if they go 4-1 in the B1G.
If they go 4-1 in the B1G they're making the tournament regardless of the outcome of the ND/UVA games. That's four likely top 20 wins right there and a few of them have a chance to be top 5 or 10.

Top 20 wins is not a criteria for tournament selection. Let’s say the Terps beat Rutgers, Hopkins, Ohio State, and Michigan, and lose to Penn State. Hopkins doesn’t have any quality wins, due to Georgetown being down this year. Rutgers doesn’t have any quality wins, due to Princeton being down. Ohio State’s win against UNC looks worse and worse every week. Michigan is Michigan.

By quality wins, I mean what will likely be top-10 RPI wins at the end of the year; i.e. teams that could get an at-large bid if they don’t win their conference’s AQ. In fact, outside of Maryland’s win against UVa, only Penn State’s win against Cornell is in that category. I think it’s high likely that Georgetown, Princeton, Yale, Penn, and North Carolina, will be outside of the top-10 in RPI at the end of the year.

Posted: **Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:50 pm**

75% of RPI is based on opponents records.

https://laxmath.com/men/rpi001x.php

Posted: **Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:51 pm**

MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:43 pm
HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:59 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:48 pm So the Terps split with ND and Virginia in two wild OT games. If they win both, they are probably the consensus #1 team in the nation.

If they lose both, there is a reasonable chance they don't make the tournament, even if they go 4-1 in the B1G.
If they go 4-1 in the B1G they're making the tournament regardless of the outcome of the ND/UVA games. That's four likely top 20 wins right there and a few of them have a chance to be top 5 or 10.
Top 20 wins is not a criteria for tournament selection. Let’s say the Terps beat Rutgers, Hopkins, Ohio State, and Michigan, and lose to Penn State. Hopkins doesn’t have any quality wins, due to Georgetown being down this year. Rutgers doesn’t have any quality wins, due to Princeton being down. Ohio State’s win against UNC looks worse and worse every week. Michigan is Michigan.

By quality wins, I mean what will likely be top-10 RPI wins at the end of the year; i.e. teams that could get an at-large bid if they don’t win their conference’s AQ. In fact, outside of Maryland’s win against UVa, only Penn State’s win against Cornell is in that category. I think it’s high likely that Georgetown, Princeton, Yale, Penn, and North Carolina, will be outside of the top-10 in RPI at the end of the year.

moral, top 20 wins are absolutely part of the calculus, if you can call it that. that's where cutoffs are for q wins and bad losses. in addition to that "strength" being part of multiple other criteria.

Posted: **Sun Mar 19, 2023 2:06 pm**

wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:51 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:43 pm
HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:59 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:48 pm So the Terps split with ND and Virginia in two wild OT games. If they win both, they are probably the consensus #1 team in the nation.

If they lose both, there is a reasonable chance they don't make the tournament, even if they go 4-1 in the B1G.
If they go 4-1 in the B1G they're making the tournament regardless of the outcome of the ND/UVA games. That's four likely top 20 wins right there and a few of them have a chance to be top 5 or 10.
Top 20 wins is not a criteria for tournament selection. Let’s say the Terps beat Rutgers, Hopkins, Ohio State, and Michigan, and lose to Penn State. Hopkins doesn’t have any quality wins, due to Georgetown being down this year. Rutgers doesn’t have any quality wins, due to Princeton being down. Ohio State’s win against UNC looks worse and worse every week. Michigan is Michigan.

By quality wins, I mean what will likely be top-10 RPI wins at the end of the year; i.e. teams that could get an at-large bid if they don’t win their conference’s AQ. In fact, outside of Maryland’s win against UVa, only Penn State’s win against Cornell is in that category. I think it’s high likely that Georgetown, Princeton, Yale, Penn, and North Carolina, will be outside of the top-10 in RPI at the end of the year.
moral, top 20 wins are absolutely part of the calculus, if you can call it that. that's where cutoffs are for q wins and bad losses. in addition to that "strength" being part of multiple other criteria.

Yep. They group them into Top 5, Top 10, and Top 20 RPI categories.

Posted: **Sun Mar 19, 2023 2:07 pm**

wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:51 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:43 pm
HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:59 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:48 pm So the Terps split with ND and Virginia in two wild OT games. If they win both, they are probably the consensus #1 team in the nation.

If they lose both, there is a reasonable chance they don't make the tournament, even if they go 4-1 in the B1G.
If they go 4-1 in the B1G they're making the tournament regardless of the outcome of the ND/UVA games. That's four likely top 20 wins right there and a few of them have a chance to be top 5 or 10.
Top 20 wins is not a criteria for tournament selection. Let’s say the Terps beat Rutgers, Hopkins, Ohio State, and Michigan, and lose to Penn State. Hopkins doesn’t have any quality wins, due to Georgetown being down this year. Rutgers doesn’t have any quality wins, due to Princeton being down. Ohio State’s win against UNC looks worse and worse every week. Michigan is Michigan.

By quality wins, I mean what will likely be top-10 RPI wins at the end of the year; i.e. teams that could get an at-large bid if they don’t win their conference’s AQ. In fact, outside of Maryland’s win against UVa, only Penn State’s win against Cornell is in that category. I think it’s high likely that Georgetown, Princeton, Yale, Penn, and North Carolina, will be outside of the top-10 in RPI at the end of the year.
moral, top 20 wins are absolutely part of the calculus, if you can call it that. that's where cutoffs are for q wins and bad losses. in addition to that "strength" being part of multiple other criteria.

Don’t have time to go back and look at the RPIs from last year, but I’m fairly sure both ND and Duke had multiple top-20 wins, but no top-10 wins (except Duke’s against UVa). And this lack of top-10 wins is exactly why they were excluded from the tournament. In fact, I’m pretty sure Duke had a bunch of wins against tournament teams that had RPIs in the 10-20 range. I could be misremembering… defer to someone with some time on their hands to validate that.

So that being said, in the scenario I provided (loss to Penn State, beat everyone else), the Terps would have zero top-10 RPI wins if they lose to UVa. Unless they win the B1G tourney, they’re out.

Posted: **Sun Mar 19, 2023 2:10 pm**

MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 2:07 pm
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:51 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:43 pm
HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:59 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:48 pm So the Terps split with ND and Virginia in two wild OT games. If they win both, they are probably the consensus #1 team in the nation.

If they lose both, there is a reasonable chance they don't make the tournament, even if they go 4-1 in the B1G.
If they go 4-1 in the B1G they're making the tournament regardless of the outcome of the ND/UVA games. That's four likely top 20 wins right there and a few of them have a chance to be top 5 or 10.
Top 20 wins is not a criteria for tournament selection. Let’s say the Terps beat Rutgers, Hopkins, Ohio State, and Michigan, and lose to Penn State. Hopkins doesn’t have any quality wins, due to Georgetown being down this year. Rutgers doesn’t have any quality wins, due to Princeton being down. Ohio State’s win against UNC looks worse and worse every week. Michigan is Michigan.

By quality wins, I mean what will likely be top-10 RPI wins at the end of the year; i.e. teams that could get an at-large bid if they don’t win their conference’s AQ. In fact, outside of Maryland’s win against UVa, only Penn State’s win against Cornell is in that category. I think it’s high likely that Georgetown, Princeton, Yale, Penn, and North Carolina, will be outside of the top-10 in RPI at the end of the year.
moral, top 20 wins are absolutely part of the calculus, if you can call it that. that's where cutoffs are for q wins and bad losses. in addition to that "strength" being part of multiple other criteria.
Don’t have time to go back and look at the RPIs from last year, but I’m fairly sure both ND and Duke had multiple top-20 wins, but no top-10 wins (except Duke’s against UVa). And this lack of top-10 wins is exactly why they were excluded from the tournament. In fact, I’m pretty sure Duke had a bunch of wins against tournament teams that had RPIs in the 10-20 range. I could be misremembering… defer to someone with some time on their hands to validate that.

So that being said, in the scenario I provided (loss to Penn State, beat everyone else), the Terps would have zero top-10 RPI wins if they lose to UVa. Unless they win the B1G tourney, they’re out.

There was definitely some deviation from the past last year in the selection. That’s because the criteria are just guidelines that the committee can use as they see fit, for better or worse.

Sometimes the committee highly weights “big wins” which are top 5 RPI.

Posted: **Sun Mar 19, 2023 2:28 pm**

MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 2:07 pm
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:51 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:43 pm
HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:59 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:48 pm So the Terps split with ND and Virginia in two wild OT games. If they win both, they are probably the consensus #1 team in the nation.

If they lose both, there is a reasonable chance they don't make the tournament, even if they go 4-1 in the B1G.
If they go 4-1 in the B1G they're making the tournament regardless of the outcome of the ND/UVA games. That's four likely top 20 wins right there and a few of them have a chance to be top 5 or 10.
Top 20 wins is not a criteria for tournament selection. Let’s say the Terps beat Rutgers, Hopkins, Ohio State, and Michigan, and lose to Penn State. Hopkins doesn’t have any quality wins, due to Georgetown being down this year. Rutgers doesn’t have any quality wins, due to Princeton being down. Ohio State’s win against UNC looks worse and worse every week. Michigan is Michigan.

By quality wins, I mean what will likely be top-10 RPI wins at the end of the year; i.e. teams that could get an at-large bid if they don’t win their conference’s AQ. In fact, outside of Maryland’s win against UVa, only Penn State’s win against Cornell is in that category. I think it’s high likely that Georgetown, Princeton, Yale, Penn, and North Carolina, will be outside of the top-10 in RPI at the end of the year.
moral, top 20 wins are absolutely part of the calculus, if you can call it that. that's where cutoffs are for q wins and bad losses. in addition to that "strength" being part of multiple other criteria.
Don’t have time to go back and look at the RPIs from last year, but I’m fairly sure both ND and Duke had multiple top-20 wins, but no top-10 wins (except Duke’s against UVa). And this lack of top-10 wins is exactly why they were excluded from the tournament. In fact, I’m pretty sure Duke had a bunch of wins against tournament teams that had RPIs in the 10-20 range. I could be misremembering… defer to someone with some time on their hands to validate that.

So that being said, in the scenario I provided (loss to Penn State, beat everyone else), the Terps would have zero top-10 RPI wins if they lose to UVa. Unless they win the B1G tourney, they’re out.

rutgers, uva, and tosu didn't have any top 10 wins last year. 3 out of 8. and nd had 2. duke had 1.

it's too long a convo for the terp thread (meaning, don't want it to hijack). just saying those are all supposed to be good wins. if rutgers, uva and tosu didn't have them, they'd have none.

Posted: **Sun Mar 19, 2023 2:36 pm**

rolldodge wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 2:10 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 2:07 pm
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:51 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:43 pm
HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:59 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:48 pm So the Terps split with ND and Virginia in two wild OT games. If they win both, they are probably the consensus #1 team in the nation.

If they lose both, there is a reasonable chance they don't make the tournament, even if they go 4-1 in the B1G.
If they go 4-1 in the B1G they're making the tournament regardless of the outcome of the ND/UVA games. That's four likely top 20 wins right there and a few of them have a chance to be top 5 or 10.
Top 20 wins is not a criteria for tournament selection. Let’s say the Terps beat Rutgers, Hopkins, Ohio State, and Michigan, and lose to Penn State. Hopkins doesn’t have any quality wins, due to Georgetown being down this year. Rutgers doesn’t have any quality wins, due to Princeton being down. Ohio State’s win against UNC looks worse and worse every week. Michigan is Michigan.

By quality wins, I mean what will likely be top-10 RPI wins at the end of the year; i.e. teams that could get an at-large bid if they don’t win their conference’s AQ. In fact, outside of Maryland’s win against UVa, only Penn State’s win against Cornell is in that category. I think it’s high likely that Georgetown, Princeton, Yale, Penn, and North Carolina, will be outside of the top-10 in RPI at the end of the year.
moral, top 20 wins are absolutely part of the calculus, if you can call it that. that's where cutoffs are for q wins and bad losses. in addition to that "strength" being part of multiple other criteria.
Don’t have time to go back and look at the RPIs from last year, but I’m fairly sure both ND and Duke had multiple top-20 wins, but no top-10 wins (except Duke’s against UVa). And this lack of top-10 wins is exactly why they were excluded from the tournament. In fact, I’m pretty sure Duke had a bunch of wins against tournament teams that had RPIs in the 10-20 range. I could be misremembering… defer to someone with some time on their hands to validate that.

So that being said, in the scenario I provided (loss to Penn State, beat everyone else), the Terps would have zero top-10 RPI wins if they lose to UVa. Unless they win the B1G tourney, they’re out.
There was definitely some deviation from the past last year in the selection. That’s because the criteria are just guidelines that the committee can use as they see fit, for better or worse.

Sometimes the committee highly weights “big wins” which are top 5 RPI.

I thought Duke was in and Harvard was out last season, despite losing twice to eventual National Champion Notre Dame.

Posted: **Sun Mar 19, 2023 3:19 pm**

wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 2:28 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 2:07 pm
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:51 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:43 pm
HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:59 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:48 pm So the Terps split with ND and Virginia in two wild OT games. If they win both, they are probably the consensus #1 team in the nation.

If they lose both, there is a reasonable chance they don't make the tournament, even if they go 4-1 in the B1G.
If they go 4-1 in the B1G they're making the tournament regardless of the outcome of the ND/UVA games. That's four likely top 20 wins right there and a few of them have a chance to be top 5 or 10.
Top 20 wins is not a criteria for tournament selection. Let’s say the Terps beat Rutgers, Hopkins, Ohio State, and Michigan, and lose to Penn State. Hopkins doesn’t have any quality wins, due to Georgetown being down this year. Rutgers doesn’t have any quality wins, due to Princeton being down. Ohio State’s win against UNC looks worse and worse every week. Michigan is Michigan.

By quality wins, I mean what will likely be top-10 RPI wins at the end of the year; i.e. teams that could get an at-large bid if they don’t win their conference’s AQ. In fact, outside of Maryland’s win against UVa, only Penn State’s win against Cornell is in that category. I think it’s high likely that Georgetown, Princeton, Yale, Penn, and North Carolina, will be outside of the top-10 in RPI at the end of the year.
moral, top 20 wins are absolutely part of the calculus, if you can call it that. that's where cutoffs are for q wins and bad losses. in addition to that "strength" being part of multiple other criteria.
Don’t have time to go back and look at the RPIs from last year, but I’m fairly sure both ND and Duke had multiple top-20 wins, but no top-10 wins (except Duke’s against UVa). And this lack of top-10 wins is exactly why they were excluded from the tournament. In fact, I’m pretty sure Duke had a bunch of wins against tournament teams that had RPIs in the 10-20 range. I could be misremembering… defer to someone with some time on their hands to validate that.

So that being said, in the scenario I provided (loss to Penn State, beat everyone else), the Terps would have zero top-10 RPI wins if they lose to UVa. Unless they win the B1G tourney, they’re out.
rutgers, uva, and tosu didn't have any top 10 wins last year. 3 out of 8. and nd had 2. duke had 1.

it's too long a convo for the terp thread (meaning, don't want it to hijack). just saying those are all supposed to be good wins. if rutgers, uva and tosu didn't have them, they'd have none.

Fair enough. I do remember being very surprised that ND was left out, and the reasoning was pretty strange on how OSU got in [because they beat ND and Harvard…??]. UVa also seemed to get in on the strength of their win over the Irish at Klockner. So good point, last year was weird.

And don’t want to hijack the thread either. Just thinking that purely from a Terps perspective, if they ended up with zero top-10 wins (i.e. the theoretical loss to UVa), the commitee would have had a hard time justifying giving them an at-large after leaving out two ACC teams for the same reason last year. And it’s looking like this year’s B1G will have a very similar profile to last year’s ACC, with the exception of the Penn State win over Cornell, and now the Maryland win over UVa.

Posted: **Sun Mar 19, 2023 3:22 pm**

MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 2:07 pm
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:51 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:43 pm
HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:59 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:48 pm So the Terps split with ND and Virginia in two wild OT games. If they win both, they are probably the consensus #1 team in the nation.

If they lose both, there is a reasonable chance they don't make the tournament, even if they go 4-1 in the B1G.
If they go 4-1 in the B1G they're making the tournament regardless of the outcome of the ND/UVA games. That's four likely top 20 wins right there and a few of them have a chance to be top 5 or 10.
Top 20 wins is not a criteria for tournament selection. Let’s say the Terps beat Rutgers, Hopkins, Ohio State, and Michigan, and lose to Penn State. Hopkins doesn’t have any quality wins, due to Georgetown being down this year. Rutgers doesn’t have any quality wins, due to Princeton being down. Ohio State’s win against UNC looks worse and worse every week. Michigan is Michigan.

By quality wins, I mean what will likely be top-10 RPI wins at the end of the year; i.e. teams that could get an at-large bid if they don’t win their conference’s AQ. In fact, outside of Maryland’s win against UVa, only Penn State’s win against Cornell is in that category. I think it’s high likely that Georgetown, Princeton, Yale, Penn, and North Carolina, will be outside of the top-10 in RPI at the end of the year.
moral, top 20 wins are absolutely part of the calculus, if you can call it that. that's where cutoffs are for q wins and bad losses. in addition to that "strength" being part of multiple other criteria.
Don’t have time to go back and look at the RPIs from last year, but I’m fairly sure both ND and Duke had multiple top-20 wins, but no top-10 wins (except Duke’s against UVa). And this lack of top-10 wins is exactly why they were excluded from the tournament. In fact, I’m pretty sure Duke had a bunch of wins against tournament teams that had RPIs in the 10-20 range. I could be misremembering… defer to someone with some time on their hands to validate that.

So that being said, in the scenario I provided (loss to Penn State, beat everyone else), the Terps would have zero top-10 RPI wins if they lose to UVa. Unless they win the B1G tourney, they’re out.

Even if top 20 wins wasn't a criteria (it absolutely is, feel free to look it up, it's all public information), there's a good chance at least one of those four B1G wins would end up being top 10. Rutgers, Hop, PSU, OSU — one of those teams is gonna finish top 10 in RPI. Possibly more than one. Right now, Penn State is 7, Maryland is 8, Ohio State is 9, Hopkins is 13, Rutgers is 15, Michigan is 16. So 4-1 in B1G play is in all likelihood going to get you a signature top 10 win if that's what you think the Terps would need to get in (which, again, may not even be true). ANY team that goes 4-1 in B1G is probably getting in. We don't know what the committee will do this year but based on RPI, the top two finishers in the conference would basically be locks and teams 3 through 5 would all have a chance.

Posted: **Sun Mar 19, 2023 3:54 pm**

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 3:22 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 2:07 pm
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:51 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:43 pm
HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:59 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:48 pm So the Terps split with ND and Virginia in two wild OT games. If they win both, they are probably the consensus #1 team in the nation.

If they lose both, there is a reasonable chance they don't make the tournament, even if they go 4-1 in the B1G.
If they go 4-1 in the B1G they're making the tournament regardless of the outcome of the ND/UVA games. That's four likely top 20 wins right there and a few of them have a chance to be top 5 or 10.
Top 20 wins is not a criteria for tournament selection. Let’s say the Terps beat Rutgers, Hopkins, Ohio State, and Michigan, and lose to Penn State. Hopkins doesn’t have any quality wins, due to Georgetown being down this year. Rutgers doesn’t have any quality wins, due to Princeton being down. Ohio State’s win against UNC looks worse and worse every week. Michigan is Michigan.

By quality wins, I mean what will likely be top-10 RPI wins at the end of the year; i.e. teams that could get an at-large bid if they don’t win their conference’s AQ. In fact, outside of Maryland’s win against UVa, only Penn State’s win against Cornell is in that category. I think it’s high likely that Georgetown, Princeton, Yale, Penn, and North Carolina, will be outside of the top-10 in RPI at the end of the year.
moral, top 20 wins are absolutely part of the calculus, if you can call it that. that's where cutoffs are for q wins and bad losses. in addition to that "strength" being part of multiple other criteria.
Don’t have time to go back and look at the RPIs from last year, but I’m fairly sure both ND and Duke had multiple top-20 wins, but no top-10 wins (except Duke’s against UVa). And this lack of top-10 wins is exactly why they were excluded from the tournament. In fact, I’m pretty sure Duke had a bunch of wins against tournament teams that had RPIs in the 10-20 range. I could be misremembering… defer to someone with some time on their hands to validate that.

So that being said, in the scenario I provided (loss to Penn State, beat everyone else), the Terps would have zero top-10 RPI wins if they lose to UVa. Unless they win the B1G tourney, they’re out.
Even if top 20 wins wasn't a criteria (it absolutely is, feel free to look it up, it's all public information), there's a good chance at least one of those four B1G wins would end up being top 10. Rutgers, Hop, PSU, OSU — one of those teams is gonna finish top 10 in RPI. Possibly more than one. Right now, Penn State is 7, Maryland is 8, Ohio State is 9, Hopkins is 13, Rutgers is 15, Michigan is 16. So 4-1 in B1G play is in all likelihood going to get you a signature top 10 win if that's what you think the Terps would need to get in (which, again, may not even be true). ANY team that goes 4-1 in B1G is probably getting in. We don't know what the committee will do this year but based on RPI, the top two finishers in the conference would basically be locks and teams 3 through 5 would all have a chance.

Right. According to my scenario, the only top 10 B1G win would be against Ohio State. And I see you’re correct that OSU is ranked 9th in the RPI… very surprised by this because their only good win was against UNC, which is at 22nd. So I have no idea how they are rated 9th.

Anyways, it’s all theoretical at this point. The Terps beat a top-10 RPI team, and assuming they hold decent form through the B1G part of their schedule, should be in good shape to make the tournament.

wgdsr’s point about UVa being selected last year is probably pertinent too. They had no top ten wins, but were coming off of a NC. I’m sure that would work in the Terps’ favor this year as well.

Posted: **Sun Mar 19, 2023 4:03 pm**

Do the Terps get credit for actually beating ND in regulation but getting screwed by an in the crease non legal goal?

Like if it was a close deal in or out of the tournament should the program make a big deal about it and draw a ton of attention to it before the selection committee meets?

Just asking opinions on selection strategy, not trying to make the ND mistaken victory a thing.

Posted: **Sun Mar 19, 2023 4:13 pm**

MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 3:54 pm OSU is ranked 9th in the RPI… very surprised by this because their only good win was against UNC, which is at 22nd. So I have no idea how they are rated 9th.

Because RPI does not care about who you beat, only who you played, and what your overall record was against thost teams (which only counts for 25% of RPI).

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