Johns Hopkins 2020

[44WeWantMore]

Do you think it will be easier for a brand-new OC to gameplan getting the ball to Sowers or for a DC/HC to gameplan covering him without Foley.

[DALaxDad]

Sowers is his own OC.

[51percentcorn]

I guess IL is having some invitational tournament attended by a bunch of college coaches - I spied what must be a new school in attendance from the IL on-line article that I have never heard of before:

John's Hopkins University

No words

Also - there was a twitter posting I saw with about 2 minutes of Petro highlights in the '89 semis against North Carolina - God he seemed to be everywhere

[HopFan16]

I guess IL is having some invitational tournament attended by a bunch of college coaches - I spied what must be a new school in attendance from the IL on-line article that I have never heard of before:

John's Hopkins University

No words

Also - there was a twitter posting I saw with about 2 minutes of Petro highlights in the '89 semis against North Carolina - God he seemed to be everywhere

I'm kind of in awe every time I see highlights of Petro as a player. He was pretty incredible. I know this has been pointed out before—and I am making no judgments other than to say I think it's interesting—that the team's defensive identity/philosophy under him as a coach is so different from how he was as a player. Again, not saying coaches have to coach the exact same way they played as players 30 years ago...just find it interesting.

Re: IL, it's a shame. A few of their only full-time writers left recently. That place has become a shell. It now seems to be 90% a recruiting service. While I don't think they are fudging their rankings to favor kids who pay to play in their sponsored events, it does bring up a conflict of interest question when the company running the tournaments also employs the people evaluating the players.

[51percentcorn]

I know this has been pointed out before—and I am making no judgments other than to say I think it's interesting—that the team's defensive identity/philosophy under him as a coach is so different from how he was as a player. Again, not saying coaches have to coach the exact same way they played as players 30 years ago...just find it interesting.

The rationale that is commonly put forth - stick technology made high pressure defense not worth the risk - certainly makes some sense. And the slide and recover help defense to try to get offenses to take shots they find less than optimal and ask your goalie to save his fair share worked extremely well for the first half of his tenure. Now it is incontrovertible that the defensive statistics have slid in the second half of the Petro era and it is also true - I believe - that scoring defense is trending down across the sport. Only 9 programs last year were under 10 GAA - a residence Hopkins lived in virtually the entirety of Petro's first 9 or so seasons. Hopkins was tied for 58th out of the 73 programs with a GAA of 13 even and the 15 programs behind Hopkins were not exactly the lacrosse incarnation of the Yankees. Whether it's players, coaching not keeping up with the trends in the game or whatever, the team scoring rankings have been on a precipitous slope down since 2014
17th in GAA
39th in GAA
58th in GAA
54th in GAA
26th in GAA
58th in GAA
Whereas before that - except for 2009 and 2010 (40th and 22nd respectively) Hopkins was typically in the TOP 10 for scoring defense - even in the lost year of 2013 they were third in the country - Hopkins ranking since '02? - 13/3/9/2/17/11/19/blip in 2009-10/6/7/3
That's a pretty stark difference no matter what.

[HopFan16]

The rationale that is commonly put forth - stick technology made high pressure defense not worth the risk - certainly makes some sense. And the slide and recover help defense to try to get offenses to take shots they find less than optimal and ask your goalie to save his fair share worked extremely well for the first half of his tenure.

I don't doubt this was the case initially—the ball is certainly harder to dislodge today than back in Petro's day. But he should know better than anyone that playing aggressive defense and pressing out more is not solely about taking the ball away. While risky, it's got other benefits too. You've got to at least try to make the offense uncomfortable and throw them out of rhythm. Sitting back on your heels and packing it in these days feels like an equally risky strategy to me.

Would be interested to look at how shooting percentage (and goalie save percentage) have changed since the 80s. Stick technology may have made it harder to cause turnovers but it's also made it a lot easier to shoot the ball accurately, from all angles and distances, with high velocity. I'm not sure that those shots the defense is "designed" to give up are as safe today as they were only a few years ago, though a lot of that still depends on the goaltender.

Anyway, interesting discussion. Not necessarily advocating for a wholesale defensive philosophy change, though those numbers 51 posted speak for themselves. SOMETHING has to change.

[DMac]

HopFan16 wrote
I'm not sure that those shots he defense is "designed" to give up are as safe today as they were only a few years ago, though a lot of that still depends on the goaltender.

I'd be pretty darn confident in saying that those shots aren't as safe to give up today as they were some years back. It's just another thing that stick technology has drastically changed, the velocity of shots from way out front is a whole lot greater than it was in the past. Lacrosse is beginning to look like hoops with guys shooting from way out and I must say I don't much like it.

[DALaxDad]

I think the stick technology, growth of the game and improved atheticism of players has contributed to a decrease in save percentage. The depth has improved the number of shooters on the field at any time. You can't rotate your defense to the strong guy(s). How big is hard to say without a lot of number crunching. Looking quickly at Brown's starting goaltender save percentages from 1973 to 1982, they slide from .650 into the high .500s. None of those goaltenders were All Ivy. Stallfort was .661 in 1994 and Jack Kelly was .606 in 2016 and they were both All American. Obviously small data points, but something of a trend.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

I think a lot of goaltenders could use glasses.

[Sagittarius A*]

I know this has been pointed out before—and I am making no judgments other than to say I think it's interesting—that the team's defensive identity/philosophy under him as a coach is so different from how he was as a player. Again, not saying coaches have to coach the exact same way they played as players 30 years ago...just find it interesting.

The rationale that is commonly put forth - stick technology made high pressure defense not worth the risk - certainly makes some sense. And the slide and recover help defense to try to get offenses to take shots they find less than optimal and ask your goalie to save his fair share worked extremely well for the first half of his tenure. Now it is incontrovertible that the defensive statistics have slid in the second half of the Petro era and it is also true - I believe - that scoring defense is trending down across the sport. Only 9 programs last year were under 10 GAA - a residence Hopkins lived in virtually the entirety of Petro's first 9 or so seasons. Hopkins was tied for 58th out of the 73 programs with a GAA of 13 even and the 15 programs behind Hopkins were not exactly the lacrosse incarnation of the Yankees. Whether it's players, coaching not keeping up with the trends in the game or whatever, the team scoring rankings have been on a precipitous slope down since 2014
17th in GAA
39th in GAA
58th in GAA
54th in GAA
26th in GAA
58th in GAA
Whereas before that - except for 2009 and 2010 (40th and 22nd respectively) Hopkins was typically in the TOP 10 for scoring defense - even in the lost year of 2013 they were third in the country - Hopkins ranking since '02? - 13/3/9/2/17/11/19/blip in 2009-10/6/7/3
That's a pretty stark difference no matter what.

The 2019 defense was a surprise to me. I thought it would be the strength of the team since virtually the entire unit was returning except for the goalie. Instead the D turned out to be the team’s Achilles heel.

Reading the tea leaves it sounds like a change in goal is coming for 2020. Hopefully the new ssdms are athletic enough to stay with their man for 60 seconds or so. I think it would help for them to drop the needless slides and disastrous double teams. The ball moves too fast these days. If the defense is still a sieve they may as well go after the ball. They’ve pretty much got nothing to lose. 13 GAA just isn’t going to cut it.

[44WeWantMore]

The rationale that is commonly put forth - stick technology made high pressure defense not worth the risk - certainly makes some sense. And the slide and recover help defense to try to get offenses to take shots they find less than optimal and ask your goalie to save his fair share worked extremely well for the first half of his tenure.

I don't doubt this was the case initially—the ball is certainly harder to dislodge today than back in Petro's day. But he should know better than anyone that playing aggressive defense and pressing out more is not solely about taking the ball away. While risky, it's got other benefits too. You've got to at least try to make the offense uncomfortable and throw them out of rhythm. Sitting back on your heels and packing it in these days feels like an equally risky strategy to me.

Would be interested to look at how shooting percentage (and goalie save percentage) have changed since the 80s. Stick technology may have made it harder to cause turnovers but it's also made it a lot easier for far more players to shoot the ball accurately, from all angles and distances, with high velocity. I'm not sure that those shots the defense is "designed" to give up are as safe today as they were only a few years ago, though a lot of that still depends on the goaltender.

Anyway, interesting discussion. Not necessarily advocating for a wholesale defensive philosophy change, though those numbers 51 posted speak for themselves. SOMETHING has to change.

With my bold, it sounds as if your point reinforces DALaxDad's

I think the stick technology, growth of the game and improved atheticism of players has contributed to a decrease in save percentage. The depth has improved the number of shooters on the field at any time. You can't rotate your defense to the strong guy(s). How big is hard to say without a lot of number crunching. Looking quickly at Brown's starting goaltender save percentages from 1973 to 1982, they slide from .650 into the high .500s. None of those goaltenders were All Ivy. Stallfort was .661 in 1994 and Jack Kelly was .606 in 2016 and they were both All American. Obviously small data points, but something of a trend.

Back in the day, every good team needed to have at least one outside shooter; now, with time and room, everybody is a threat.

[Matnum PI]

A little off topic but it's a brief divergence so... Hopkins Mens Soccer is having a good season.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

And football is out of the playoff picture with three losses already.

Better record than Maryland though. UMd has become a welcome doormat for all B1G teams to visit the Smithsonian and butt stomp the Terps in a friendly Byrd environment where they can out cheer the local despondents.

[jhu06]

Margraff the football coach who passed away was a great guy and coach. Not easy to put together a successful d3 athletics program with the admissions/coursework/financials and win like he and many other hop coaches have. This forum, at least since I've been a part of it has always had a cycle (hope about an IL rated top 5 class in the fall, endless speculation about new guys and transformed veterans in the fall, predictions of a return to glory around nfl playoffs after the whipping of auto bid schools, despair after the gauntlet, prayers about the bubble around late April and total forum commenter warfare after a season ending blowout) and the conversation we're having now about the defensive scheme usually takes flight in earnest with a nervous breakdown after the North Carolina game and or the old acc/princeton gauntlet. I think I started reading doc b's defensive scheme take and the destruction of it by other commenters around the time that sankey/bitter first got rolling at unc.

[wgdsr]

Margraff the football coach who passed away was a great guy and coach. Not easy to put together a successful d3 athletics program with the admissions/coursework/financials and win like he and many other hop coaches have. This forum, at least since I've been a part of it has always had a cycle (hope about an IL rated top 5 class in the fall, endless speculation about new guys and transformed veterans in the fall, predictions of a return to glory around nfl playoffs after the whipping of auto bid schools, despair after the gauntlet, prayers about the bubble around late April and total forum commenter warfare after a season ending blowout) and the conversation we're having now about the defensive scheme usually takes flight in earnest with a nervous breakdown after the North Carolina game and or the old acc/princeton gauntlet. I think I started reading doc b's defensive scheme take and the destruction of it by other commenters around the time that sankey/bitter first got rolling at unc.

just be aggressive.

[steel_hop]

Margraff the football coach who passed away was a great guy and coach. Not easy to put together a successful d3 athletics program with the admissions/coursework/financials and win like he and many other hop coaches have.

I think the program gets a huge mulligan this year. Not only is the team dealing with the sudden passing of Margraff which certainly puts the entire program into perspective. Chimera will need to build his own identity and learn to be the head coach from being only the OC last year. He only needed to focus on one aspect of the game and now he has the entire team to think about. That isn't something that you just have it takes some time.

To put it in further perspective. When Margraff was first there a season with only 3 losses would have been considered a great result. Now, it is considered a disappointment. Margraff also had something like 1/3 of all wins for Hopkins.

He is going to be sorely missed.

[steel_hop]

The rationale that is commonly put forth - stick technology made high pressure defense not worth the risk - certainly makes some sense. And the slide and recover help defense to try to get offenses to take shots they find less than optimal and ask your goalie to save his fair share worked extremely well for the first half of his tenure.

I don't doubt this was the case initially—the ball is certainly harder to dislodge today than back in Petro's day. But he should know better than anyone that playing aggressive defense and pressing out more is not solely about taking the ball away. While risky, it's got other benefits too. You've got to at least try to make the offense uncomfortable and throw them out of rhythm. Sitting back on your heels and packing it in these days feels like an equally risky strategy to me.

Anyway, interesting discussion. Not necessarily advocating for a wholesale defensive philosophy change, though those numbers 51 posted speak for themselves. SOMETHING has to change.

After watching many of the 2019 games, my hunch is that given the new shot clock rules that Hopkins went to an even more passive style with the believe that teams only had 75 seconds figuring more times than not a team wouldn't be able to get a good shot off. I think the results speak for themselves that wasn't a good idea. We will see if they adjust this year.

You could argue the defense can't be much worse that last year but given the losses not sure it will get much better. Maybe if you can get your goalie to make 2-3 more saves a game would go a long way to lowering the GAA.

[steel_hop]

The rationale that is commonly put forth - stick technology made high pressure defense not worth the risk - certainly makes some sense. And the slide and recover help defense to try to get offenses to take shots they find less than optimal and ask your goalie to save his fair share worked extremely well for the first half of his tenure.

I don't doubt this was the case initially—the ball is certainly harder to dislodge today than back in Petro's day. But he should know better than anyone that playing aggressive defense and pressing out more is not solely about taking the ball away. While risky, it's got other benefits too. You've got to at least try to make the offense uncomfortable and throw them out of rhythm. Sitting back on your heels and packing it in these days feels like an equally risky strategy to me.

Anyway, interesting discussion. Not necessarily advocating for a wholesale defensive philosophy change, though those numbers 51 posted speak for themselves. SOMETHING has to change.

After watching many of the 2019 games, my hunch is that given the new shot clock rules that Hopkins went to an even more passive style with the believe that teams only had 75 seconds figuring more times than not a team wouldn't be able to get a good shot off. I think the results speak for themselves that wasn't a good idea. We will see if they adjust this year.

You could argue the defense can't be much worse that last year but given the losses not sure it will get much better. Maybe if you can get your goalie to make 2-3 more saves a game would go a long way to lowering the GAA.

[DocBarrister]

Margraff the football coach who passed away was a great guy and coach. Not easy to put together a successful d3 athletics program with the admissions/coursework/financials and win like he and many other hop coaches have. This forum, at least since I've been a part of it has always had a cycle (hope about an IL rated top 5 class in the fall, endless speculation about new guys and transformed veterans in the fall, predictions of a return to glory around nfl playoffs after the whipping of auto bid schools, despair after the gauntlet, prayers about the bubble around late April and total forum commenter warfare after a season ending blowout) and the conversation we're having now about the defensive scheme usually takes flight in earnest with a nervous breakdown after the North Carolina game and or the old acc/princeton gauntlet. I think I started reading doc b's defensive scheme take and the destruction of it by other commenters around the time that sankey/bitter first got rolling at unc.

just be aggressive.

That’s pretty much what I advocate for Hopkins.

You can’t tell me that stick technology mandates a more passive defensive style when both Yale and Loyola have had seasons averaging 8 to 9 caused turnovers a game.

Petro should take a look at how Loyola coaches their defense and follow that style.

In addition, a major benefit of coaching an aggressive style of defense is getting the offense accustomed to playing against that style.

I think Petro’s passive defensive style cost the U.S. National Team a world championship a few years back. It really is time for Petro to abandon his dinosaur defensive style and teach his young men how to throw some of those checks he used to terrorize opponents during his playing days.

DocBarrister

[Sagittarius A*]

It may be about the players he has and what he thinks their capabilities are. The point about the world games is well taken because he had great defensive players then. But If he doesn’t feel the risk-reward is worth it he’s got to adapt his system to his players abilities and skill sets. The loss of Foley probably means less takeaways next year. If he can get good goal tending and decent ssdm play my guess is he stays passive and waits for a bad shot or shot clock violation.