iL report on first fifty days of class of 2021 recruits

[Laxman23]

Very interesting analysis of the first seven weeks of commitments of the class of 2021, 61 of the top 100IL have committed over this period with over half the available four and five stars giving their commitment,
Hope they repeat a second report on the next 50 days. Any comments?

[ohmilax34]

The early recruiters are still recruiting early. JHU and UNC are among the schools with the most commitments. This isn't as early as it used to be when we had 8th and 9th graders "committing", but it's pretty close to when Joey Sankey committed early. These kids still have 2 seasons of lacrosse left, some will have 3 because PGing seems to be an increasing trend. This still leaves a lot of time for these kids to de-commit.

How much does a typical IL or Ty Xanders top 100 rising juniors list change over two years when it becomes a top 100 incoming freshmen list? I'm guessing the list changes pretty substantially. If that's the case, shouldn't we treat this list as a mostly random selection of 100 of the top 500 or so HS juniors? There will be players from this class that aren't on this list that will be college all americans at every position.

[Seahawk]

Not being able to recruit ie contact doesn’t mean not being able to watch and evaluate and network with HS and club coaches. I think most Top 100 kids will commit by Xmas if only for FOMO.

[Dip&Dunk]

A) I don't blame IL for running an article basically promoting IL's prospect ranking system but.. (see D)
B) I would love to know their track record for rankings accuracy in predicting future success at the collegiate level.....
C) and so I would know any Causation vs Correlation relationships

So until then, this is a self licking ice cream cone.

and finally,

D) Shouldn't there be a disclaimer somewhere here on the ranking process?

[HooDat]

Causation vs Correlation

this is a self licking ice cream cone.

pretty much sums it up....

[Laxrules10]

The 2021 rankings will change substantially from now to the power 100 freshman list. It's only a few guys at IL that put the list together which leads to major corrections to the list over time as they get more data.

I agree on the fear of missing out which leads to verbal commits accelerating.

[NJLax80]

With the recent flip of Griffin Schutz '21, A/M from Deerfield, that gives UVA 4 of the current IL top 25 and I believe 2 within the top 10. He was previously committed to Boston U.

Lars looking for quality over quantity and is no doubt capitalizing on the new culture and championship run.

[10stone5]

The early recruiters are still recruiting early.

That’s what I observed.

[Surfs_Up]

There are lots of good kids not on that Top 100 list because kids didn't to an IL event to get ranked. This list will likely change substantially as the flips happen after next summer and more transparency comes into who are the real players. Some of these Top 100, have no business being Top 100.

[blue angels]

With the recent flip of Griffin Schutz '21, A/M from Deerfield, that gives UVA 4 of the current IL top 25 and I believe 2 within the top 10. He was previously committed to Boston U.

Lars looking for quality over quantity and is no doubt capitalizing on the new culture and championship run.

Virginia has 3 off the 2021 IL Top 10 in Matthew Nunes-Goalie-#2, Griffin Schutz-A/M-#8, Cody Hart-M-#9,
The rankings aren't always accurate and players are routinely missed. Regardless, the players at the top of these lists are generally the top regarded college prospects in the class from sources other than just IL including coaches, so less likely to miss.

[Can Opener]

Check out page 3 of the Brown thread for a good analysis compiled by Boredatwork. He compared HS junior rankings to incoming college freshmen rankings to eventual All Americans. Basically the IL rankings are pretty good at forecasting top offensive players. Their record is much spottier for guys like SSDMs, LSMs and FOGOs. TD Ierlan, for example, was not ranked as a HS junior.

[Laxman23]

There are approximately 950 DI lax recruits (73 teams x12 recruits/team) =948. In the first 50 days,159 recruits committed which is less than20 % of those who will commit to class of 2021.
61 of the top 100 and over half of the four and five stars have pledged to a team. The next 50 days of fall lacrosse will be interesting and clearly those who have established themselves in the showcases and obtained rank are highly sought after. Here's hoping my favorite team finds some unranked diamonds who will play their entire college career with a little extra incentive to prove the recruiting pundits wrong.

[OCanada]

The fear of missing out has always been a concern.

I would be interested in which teams benefit the most from players flipping and which lose the most and why.

[Laxman23]

I think also interesting to determine if the change in contact period resulted in an increase or decrease in flipping relative to prior years, ideally holding off to commit until junior year should lead to less deommitment.

While at it, would be interesting to discuss transfers and the transfer portal. My understanding is some schools have never taken a transfer and of course some transfers have been extremely beneficial to both the school, team, and player(s)......FOGOs!!

[notentitled]

I hope they track how many of these kids transfer or stop playing- unbelievable scrutiny/pressure. And always amazing that so many of us forget(me as well) that often the 2 or 3 star at 17 blossoms when he is 21 into the star and the 5-star high school player is just one of the pack as a senior in college.

These scouting reports in all sports are fun- I love watching the highlights-kids have great skills. But so many kids change. A 17-year old and 21-year old are so different. It is true in every sport.

But good luck to all these kids, and make sure you go to the school for education first and the sport second. And also remember the coach that recruits you may not be there for your whole tenure.