2020 Elections - Trump FIRED

[youthathletics]

Joe getting spooled up. https://www.instagram.com/p/B3NsTQJnI_6 ... 2y90o8jgj1

[old salt]

Based on the foregoing discussion in this thread, it appears the FL/LP TDS therapy group has progressed to the bargaining phase.

The depression phase will be devastating. I await you in the acceptance phase.

[Trinity]

Republicans and Trump’s Legion of Dictators vs Democrats.
Rematch of 2016.

[Farfromgeneva]

I still don’t buy Europe as the model.

The Euros seem to mostly like what they have. If you are only going to make the median family income, I don't think you'd pick the U.S. model to live in. Median family income is $56k annually here in the U.S. To me that's poor, not middle class. Can't afford $500 to fix the car.

My blue collar HS-educated father never made the median income, but he was middle class. He basically had what the current Euros have -- strong unions, guaranteed pension, govt backed mortgage from the GI Bill, close to guaranteed lifelong employment, lifelong free healthcare from the govt and his post-retirement union job benefits, close to free college for his kids. He didn't have to fund his own 529 or his own 401k.

Basically, my dad lived in a workers paradise better than anything Karl Marx ever imagined. Which was 1950s America under Comrade Ike. Today Ike would be far left of AOC. And my dad (were he still alive), today would be a Trumpster (having previously been a Reagan Democrat). But he'd be better off feeling the Bern.

Of course, even Bernie can't bring back my dad's life -- today's world is too flat for that.

Perhaps we see different things in our anecdotal experiences in Europe or with Europeans. I’m open to that. The rest of your post doesn’t really speak to actual European experiences. There’s a ton of racism and insecurity over there.

I think one thing missing is the population growth, demographics and a few other macro variables that are very different today than in the 1950s no matter who is in charge as well. Basically both sides are but hugging old theoretical frameworks and I’m not sure any existing orthodoxy is equipped to deal with the world today, perhaps your partially getting at that with the flatness comment. But in my experience I don’t see europe as a very content place with their system. On a personal/anecdotal level or simple in what’s going on, whether it’s constant fighting about susbsidies between Northern/Southern, brexit, Germany complaining, the growth and inclusion of a country like Greece which is only European in sort of geography, overt racism towards Muslims and Jews, Italy and Spain have many challenges, etc.

I was excoriated by some older folks for my demographics comments about boomers, but your dads generation succeeded in a relative greenfield country, not what it is today and yet they’re the ones who would’ve steered American ethos and philosophy to what it is today as well as having taught/trained it into following generations. They’re not innocent in this.

[Farfromgeneva]

I still don’t buy Europe as the model.

The Euros seem to mostly like what they have. If you are only going to make the median family income, I don't think you'd pick the U.S. model to live in. Median family income is $56k annually here in the U.S. To me that's poor, not middle class. Can't afford $500 to fix the car.

My blue collar HS-educated father never made the median income, but he was middle class. He basically had what the current Euros have -- strong unions, guaranteed pension, govt backed mortgage from the GI Bill, close to guaranteed lifelong employment, lifelong free healthcare from the govt and his post-retirement union job benefits, close to free college for his kids. He didn't have to fund his own 529 or his own 401k.

Basically, my dad lived in a workers paradise better than anything Karl Marx ever imagined. Which was 1950s America under Comrade Ike. Today Ike would be far left of AOC. And my dad (were he still alive), today would be a Trumpster (having previously been a Reagan Democrat). But he'd be better off feeling the Bern.

Of course, even Bernie can't bring back my dad's life -- today's world is too flat for that.

Perhaps we see different things in our anecdotal experiences in Europe or with Europeans. I’m open to that. The rest of your post doesn’t really speak to actual European experiences. There’s a ton of racism and insecurity over there.

I think one thing missing is the population growth, demographics and a few other macro variables that are very different today than in the 1950s no matter who is in charge as well. Basically both sides are but hugging old theoretical frameworks and I’m not sure any existing orthodoxy is equipped to deal with the world today, perhaps your partially getting at that with the flatness comment. But in my experience I don’t see europe as a very content place with their system. On a personal/anecdotal level or simple in what’s going on, whether it’s constant fighting about susbsidies between Northern/Southern, brexit, Germany complaining, the growth and inclusion of a country like Greece which is only European in sort of geography, overt racism towards Muslims and Jews, Italy and Spain have many challenges, etc.

I was excoriated by some older folks for my demographics comments about boomers, but your dads generation succeeded in a relative greenfield country, not what it is today and yet they’re the ones who would’ve steered American ethos and philosophy to what it is today as well as having taught/trained it into following generations. They’re not innocent in this. They are responsible for the culture creation today where homeownership and two cars are expected with the average car lasting 3-4yrs vs 15.

We also have this odd tendency to check our values at borders while talking about human rights and conditions. In the 1950s, how was life in many south or Central American, SE asian, African countries, & India, compared with today. They’ve seen a lot of human basic progress at our and European expense. Many aren’t perfect but I was in india a handful of years ago and came to understand that county for what it is today is way, way better off than it was a generation or two ago.

[jhu72]

I still say too many people are vastly underestimating the un-tapped voter base that has yet to hit the polls for Trump. This is particularly true in the swing states.

So I thought about this overnight. What is your evidence for these hidden presumably white blue collar working class voters that have not voted in the past?

[Farfromgeneva]

Some people say, not me, but I mean I hear things and people are saying...

[DMac]

I still don’t buy Europe as the model.

The Euros seem to mostly like what they have. If you are only going to make the median family income, I don't think you'd pick the U.S. model to live in. Median family income is $56k annually here in the U.S. To me that's poor, not middle class. Can't afford $500 to fix the car.

My blue collar HS-educated father never made the median income, but he was middle class. He basically had what the current Euros have -- strong unions, guaranteed pension, govt backed mortgage from the GI Bill, close to guaranteed lifelong employment, lifelong free healthcare from the govt and his post-retirement union job benefits, close to free college for his kids. He didn't have to fund his own 529 or his own 401k.

Basically, my dad lived in a workers paradise better than anything Karl Marx ever imagined. Which was 1950s America under Comrade Ike. Today Ike would be far left of AOC. And my dad (were he still alive), today would be a Trumpster (having previously been a Reagan Democrat). But he'd be better off feeling the Bern.

Of course, even Bernie can't bring back my dad's life -- today's world is too flat for that.

Perhaps we see different things in our anecdotal experiences in Europe or with Europeans. I’m open to that. The rest of your post doesn’t really speak to actual European experiences. There’s a ton of racism and insecurity over there.

I think one thing missing is the population growth, demographics and a few other macro variables that are very different today than in the 1950s no matter who is in charge as well. Basically both sides are but hugging old theoretical frameworks and I’m not sure any existing orthodoxy is equipped to deal with the world today, perhaps your partially getting at that with the flatness comment. But in my experience I don’t see europe as a very content place with their system. On a personal/anecdotal level or simple in what’s going on, whether it’s constant fighting about susbsidies between Northern/Southern, brexit, Germany complaining, the growth and inclusion of a country like Greece which is only European in sort of geography, overt racism towards Muslims and Jews, Italy and Spain have many challenges, etc.

I was excoriated by some older folks for my demographics comments about boomers, but your dads generation succeeded in a relative greenfield country, not what it is today and yet they’re the ones who would’ve steered American ethos and philosophy to what it is today as well as having taught/trained it into following generations. They’re not innocent in this. They are responsible for the culture creation today where homeownership and two cars are expected with the average car lasting 3-4yrs vs 15.

We also have this odd tendency to check our values at borders while talking about human rights and conditions. In the 1950s, how was life in many south or Central American, SE asian, African countries, & India, compared with today. They’ve seen a lot of human basic progress at our and European expense. Many aren’t perfect but I was in india a handful of years ago and came to understand that county for what it is today is way, way better off than it was a generation or two ago.

To be a little more accurate, you were excoriated for the depends and over the top stuff about the boomers phukin the whole country up, it's a little deeper than that. That said, I think the two above posts are pretty much right on the money, well done boys.
Father retired Army and post office (very similar to ggait's family in the security/retirement aspect) mother never worked, life was good....I wouldn't trade it for today's world for all the tea in China. It's been awhile since I've been to Europe, did live there in the late 50s early 60s, was a great place and the people were indeed content. I'd imagine ffg's description of today's Europe isn't inaccurate, but they have health coverage and that's a real big deal. Had a little chat with my youngest the other day, the diabetic, mild mannered one. Make you want to cry...no one should have to go through what that kid has to (and has for 25 years) with costs and hoops to jump through. It is just wrong and sinful what's happened with the insulin costs...how much is it in Canada? Our health insurance system phukin sux with a capital PH!!! Fix that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Farfromgeneva]

Fair enough though some of that was meant tongue in cheek in response to the “pushback” from older folks comment.

I’d be more open to universal coverage if we dropped ag subsidies, fan/fred/ginnie, mortgage interest tax deduction, fdic, capped and chain linked SS benefits (safety net not retirement plan), focused law and regulation on wellness and a few other items. I’m ok w basic, my dad had Medicaid. Needs to be a discussion about what needs and wants really are.

[foreverlax]

Based on the foregoing discussion in this thread, it appears the FL/LP TDS therapy group has progressed to the bargaining phase.

The depression phase will be devastating. I await you in the acceptance phase.

Says the guy with DTS...deranged Trump supporter.

[HooDat]

I still say too many people are vastly underestimating the un-tapped voter base that has yet to hit the polls for Trump. This is particularly true in the swing states.

So I thought about this overnight. What is your evidence for these hidden presumably white blue collar working class voters that have not voted in the past?

you will have to settle for some higher level generalities.

1) Voter turn-out is low across the country.
2) Let's assume that election participation is generally even between the two primary ideological leanings - although this isn't necessary to support my assertion because:
3) Blue states are going to stay blue - red states are going to stay red - although Texas is becoming interesting;
4) Therefor the un-tapped voter base that MATTERS is in the battleground states;
5) The "battleground" states are over-represented by an arc that runs from the rust belt through Appalachia to the coastal south: places that score high on the "deplorable" scale and where blue collar jobs have been hit hard;
6) It just seems to me that in the battle ground states, where any of this matters, the demographics play into Trump's strengths.

Of course if Texas goes blue - NOTHING else matters - it would be game over GOP, and the US will need to find a new second party.

[seacoaster]

I still say too many people are vastly underestimating the un-tapped voter base that has yet to hit the polls for Trump. This is particularly true in the swing states.

So I thought about this overnight. What is your evidence for these hidden presumably white blue collar working class voters that have not voted in the past?

you will have to settle for some higher level generalities.

1) Voter turn-out is low across the country.
2) Let's assume that election participation is generally even between the two primary ideological leanings - although this isn't necessary to support my assertion because:
3) Blue states are going to stay blue - red states are going to stay red - although Texas is becoming interesting;
4) Therefor the un-tapped voter base that MATTERS is in the battleground states;
5) The "battleground" states are over-represented by an arc that runs from the rust belt through Appalachia to the coastal south: places that score high on the "deplorable" scale and where blue collar jobs have been hit hard;
6) It just seems to me that in the battle ground states, where any of this matters, the demographics play into Trump's strengths.

Of course if Texas goes blue - NOTHING else matters - it would be game over GOP, and the US will need to find a new second party.

Do you think that your No. 3 is invariably true? Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan were decided by a collective 70,000 votes last time, I think. Seems to me that those red states, maybe even Arizona, could be in play.

[HooDat]

I think Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Virginia, NC, Arkansas, Florida and most of the states in-between (on that arc I described) are all "battleground" states.

So, no, I don't think they are red.

[a fan]

Fair enough though some of that was meant tongue in cheek in response to the “pushback” from older folks comment.

I’d be more open to universal coverage if we dropped ag subsidies, fan/fred/ginnie, mortgage interest tax deduction, fdic

You know better than I that the .gov is responsible for half of the volume of home loans one way or another.

How many people would be able to afford to buy a home if you took those programs away? Demand, and I think I'm being charitable here, would drop by a 1/3rd. The entire US economy would fall into a depression.

Needs to be a discussion about what needs and wants really are.

Agree completely. Balance the budget. That would get everyone's attention. Right now, Boomers are taking $3 in Medicare for every dollar they put in. How would people react if you tripled their Medicare withholding.

[Farfromgeneva]

The agencies represent far greater than 90% of the mortgage market and I find that problematic. They’ve crowded everyone else out since the crisis but the seeds were sown many, many decades ago when the gift creates the 30yr fixed rate mortgage WITH a free prepayment option. Virtually guaranteed its place int he market, which then allowed the govt to sell the myth of homeownership as the American Dream and create all sorts of frictions and bad policies around that. My sister has rented her entire life, raised two kids, one just radiates from college and the other a Soph and I wouldn’t consider her “homeless” but it has weighed on her mentally that they haven’t owned a home (in San Fran and Oakland) which I find offensive.

I own a home and have also argued for elimination of the mortgage interest tax deduction. Student loan default Rae is north of 11%. A lot of consumer debt and leverage was created by government subsidized debt which pushed asset and education prices up and now its the people’s problem to deal with it. Resets are hard but if we are to argue for, say some worker retraining/education to soften the blow of a different economy then I’m ok with some thoughtful reset of all this, lower asset values and more responsible lending and credit. Hate this idea that we will just overlay a new law or regulation to fix the problem with the old one. Does nothing but add to the frictions and costs for crap like accountants and lawyers.

I also don’t agree with the magnitude of demand reduction you think. Homeownership is irrational. When a gift agency has a call option in a issued debenture (borrowing), they call and reissue like clockwork the second they are in the money. Go look at mortgage prepayments (info is available here for one place - https://loanperformancedata.fanniemae.c ... index.html). The behavior is demonstrably not rational. A drop in demand like you suggest would require a seismic shift in philosophy globally. Even this theory that millennials don’t care about owning homes was stupid and reactionary, it’s just happening a little slower because household formation was delayed a bit by the crisis.

[Farfromgeneva]

I’d add that it would force local governments to be more responsible in their actions to compete by making their real estate which is largely local, more competitive

[a fan]

The entire----all of it-----economy is based on the housing market.

Pull that away, any and all net worth for all but the top 10% earners goes bye-bye.

I don't disagree with what you are saying in principle. But you'd be taking away the purchasing power from about half our population. What are you going to replace that money with?

And construction? All local economies depend on it. If you don't see cranes, you're in a town that's on life support.


This, of course, is why Republicans in Congress didn't push to liquidate Fan and Fred after the 08 crash. An economist pulled them in a room, and gave them the score. No one is willing to go into a Depression so that we can get free market principles into play.

The one thing we've learned in the Trump era is that Americans, especially Republican voters, don't want Free Market principles.....they'd rather have money.

[ggait]

[]

[ggait]

I still say too many people are vastly underestimating the un-tapped voter base that has yet to hit the polls for Trump. This is particularly true in the swing states.

So I thought about this overnight. What is your evidence for these hidden presumably white blue collar working class voters that have not voted in the past?

Nate Cohn (NY Times Upshot data guy) analysis suggesting that there is some opportunity for Trump among white no college voters who (i) voted in 2016 but stayed home in 2018 and (ii) are unregistered (but who might be persuaded to register/vote for Trump). Particularly in the rust belt swing states, that might blunt the overall Dem advantage that comes from a big turnout election (which is assured for 2020).

The (ii) folks wouldn't show up in any polls of voters. The (i) folks would show in registered voter polls, but maybe not likely voter polls.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/15/upsh ... lysis.html

[Farfromgeneva]

The entire----all of it-----economy is based on the housing market.

Pull that away, any and all net worth for all but the top 10% earners goes bye-bye.

I don't disagree with what you are saying in principle. But you'd be taking away the purchasing power from about half our population. What are you going to replace that money with?

And construction? All local economies depend on it. If you don't see cranes, you're in a town that's on life support.


This, of course, is why Republicans in Congress didn't push to liquidate Fan and Fred after the 08 crash. An economist pulled them in a room, and gave them the score. No one is willing to go into a Depression so that we can get free market principles into play.

The one thing we've learned in the Trump era is that Americans, especially Republican voters, don't want Free Market principles.....they'd rather have money.

Plenty of credible economists want to eliminate the agencies and as I’ve mentioned before economist track record of prediction is garbage.

But what your really missing is the vast interest in financing real estate outside the government. ABS easy was best attended of any event in a long time. Your making an assumption there wouldn’t be a ton of capital stepping into The agencies place and that’s just not correct. It just wouldn’t be subsidized and you’d have a bit less 30yr fixed and less negative convexity which would eliminate a lot of distortions.