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U.S. ‘Unimpressed’ With Ukraine’s Victory Plan Ahead of Biden-Zelensky Meeting
Kyiv’s proposal focuses on weapons and loosening restrictions on long-range missiles, Western officials say
by Alexander Ward and Lara Seligman, Sept. 25, 2024
NEW YORK—The Biden administration is concerned that the Ukrainian leader’s plan for winning the war against Russia lacks a comprehensive strategy and is little more than a repackaged request for more weapons and the lifting of restrictions on long-range missiles, U.S. officials said.
For months, President Volodymyr Zelensky billed the plan as a framework to defeat Russia, and he is set to brief President Biden on the specifics Thursday during a high-profile White House meeting, the first time the Biden administration will get to hear the framework in its entirety.
But senior U.S. and European officials knowledgeable of the broad outlines of the plan say it offers no clear path to a Ukraine victory, particularly as Russian forces make slow but steady gains on the battlefield.
“I’m unimpressed, there’s not much new there,” one of the senior officials said.
Zelensky’s scheduled visit to Washington on Thursday comes amid growing allegations from some Republicans that Ukraine’s politicians are interfering in U.S. domestic politics. Zelensky recently came under attack for criticizing Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance, and on Wednesday, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson called for the dismissal of Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.S. for touring a manufacturing facility in Pennsylvania as part of what he called a “clearly a partisan campaign event.”
While the U.S. and Ukraine hoped to be united on a way forward, they now find themselves at a crucial point in the war without a shared vision. The divisions between Kyiv and Washington also come amid disagreements among the U.S. and its allies about lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to use long-range missiles inside Russian territory.
A centerpiece of the plan requires the U.S. to give Ukraine the green light to use the weapons as Kyiv sees fit, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. Without that authority, he said, Ukraine’s proposals would ultimately be “less relevant” because Kyiv would struggle to respond to continued Russian assaults.
Biden has for months refused to budge on Ukraine’s longstanding request to lift restrictions on U.S.- and U.K.-provided long-range missiles, which would allow its forces to strike military targets deep inside Russia. Biden has dug in his heels despite urging by his British counterpart, as U.S. administration officials assert such weapons won’t prove a strategic-game changer and could possibly encourage Vladimir Putin to escalate the war.
The U.S. position has faced stiff pushback from a number of European leaders who believe that, after 2½ years, Ukraine has earned the right to counter Russian forces without any hindrances. Speaking on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly this week, some world leaders were visibly frustrated.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Wednesday that the conflict is at a “crossroads” and criticized the West for wasting time talking about “red lines” while Russia advances on the battlefield. “We need to ensure Ukraine can win this war,” she said, urging Western leaders to give Ukraine long-range weapons “with no restrictions” and to let Ukraine join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski told the Journal he had pressed his American and British colleagues, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan, to let Ukraine use the long-range weapons as it wants, dismissing the idea that Putin would escalate in response.
“Are you telling me that Putin is not using—is not throwing—everything he has at Ukraine?” said Sikorski.
But German Chancellor Olaf Scholz sided with Biden’s reluctance to allow free rein on the use of long-range missiles. “Germany will not support lifting restrictions,” he said, shortly before sitting face-to-face with Zelensky on Tuesday,
“This would not be compatible with my personal conviction,” he added.
In his speech at the U.N. on Wednesday, Zelensky warned about impending threats by Russia against his country’s energy infrastructure and nuclear plants, but he didn’t speak to any details of the peace plan or make requests related to weapons.
Behind the scenes, Zelensky has been putting forward a maximalist proposal in hopes the U.S. and its allies will give Kyiv everything it wants, U.S. and European officials said. But the current state of the Ukrainian framework has dispirited Biden’s top aides, U.S. officials said, who in recent weeks traveled to Kyiv and were briefed on elements of the plan.
They hoped to hear something tangible that the Biden administration could support with only four months left in office.
Ukraine’s plan broadly covers Ukraine’s needs on the battlefield, political overhauls inside the country, and the economy, a senior State Department official said Tuesday. But U.S. and European officials said the most developed part of the plan is the first phase—the requests related to weapons—while the rest of the key elements have fewer specifics.
Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine’s presidential office, called the plan “very specific and clear,” but only went as far as to say “it contains both military and diplomatic parts and prospects of the further economic benefits.”
Concerns about Zelensky’s plan and the debate over allowing Western-made, long-range missiles to strike inside Russia comes as the war turns in Putin’s favor. Russia is closing in on the key logistics hub of Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s east and advancing in other nearby cities such as Vuhledar, a mining center nearly surrounded by Russian forces, as well as Toretsk, which sits on the end of a ridge.
Ukrainian forces in August invaded Russia’s Kursk region, which Zelensky said was part of his plan to increase Ukrainian leverage over Russia. Russia has launched limited counterattacks that have squeezed Ukrainian troops occupying dozens of towns and villages in Kursk but has been unable to fully oust them.
Russia also has systematically targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in recent months, knocking out around half of the country’s electricity grid, forcing rolling blackouts across the country and sparking concerns of a fresh wave of refugees from the country this winter.
Publicly, at least, senior U.S. officials still insist that Ukraine can prevail against Russia, though they no longer talk about Kyiv regaining all of its lost territory.
Blinken on Wednesday said he had no doubt Ukraine could win the war. “The challenge now is to make sure that Ukraine can be a strong independent country that stands up militarily, economically, democratically,” he told ABC News’s “Good Morning America.”
Biden, during his own U.N. speech Tuesday, called on the West to sustain Ukraine’s defense despite war-weariness sapping the political will of Kyiv’s backers. “We will not let up on our support for Ukraine, not until Ukraine wins a just and durable peace,” he said.
