Tewaaraton Award 2024

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MDlaxfan76
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Re: Tewaaraton Award 2024

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

Hooz123 wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 9:48 am
Henpecked wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 6:19 am Matt Brandau deserves the Tewaaraton award for being the best player this season. The fact that his team didn’t make the tournament should have no bearing on this.

Give him the Tewey and then give an award to tournament MVP and be done with it.

Liam Entenmann listed as a finalist is just absurd. Pure ESPN hype. Hell, Pat Kavanagh is the MVP on Notre Dame. I could have made 8 saves (44%) behind that defense on Saturday.
It's May 20, 2024, and people still hyping up Matt Brandau. :lol:
Yes, best season by a very wide margin. And it's BS that he did it against 'weak' competition.

We've been through the stats, analyzed performances against same competitors, even looked at differences in teammate production efficiency.

Brandau stands out, way out, on all fair analysis. If season ended two weeks ago, shoe in.

Doesn't mean he gets it. I'd predicted that if Yale didn't make the tourney it would be extremely unlikely as the Committee takes into account post season play as well as regular season.

My favorite remains Shellenberger. It'll matter a ton how he does next weekend, but I have him currently a nose ahead of anyone else. I don't think either Kav is nearly the right answer, but a huge weekend by Kav and a falter by Shelly could push it there.

I'm also rooting for UVA to put it altogether, so that's where my head is at anyway!
The Orfling
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Re: Tewaaraton Award 2024

Post by The Orfling »

@Finster: The silly ranting of some 15 year old kid -- or a guy 30 years older who writes like a teenager and who blows hot and cold on his own team depending on the scoreboard -- is not worth the engagement.

It's been a fun tournament and I do think that Shellenberger has the inside track on the Tewey right now with his heroics against Hop. We'll see what happens this weekend. Hoping that the great players play great lacrosse at the biggest moments on the biggest stage, and I expect we'll see that from all three still-active finalists. Good luck to Pat, Liam, and Connor this weekend.
Laxguy703
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Re: Tewaaraton Award 2024

Post by Laxguy703 »

If Shelly can put up 4+ points against UMD and advance to the finals, he will be a lock. He has historically been locked down by Ajax so if he can put up some numbers against the best defender in college lacrosse and bring his team to the national championship, I don’t see how they don’t give it to him regardless of how the final plays out.

Kav is an all time great, but I don’t see him getting it due to how good his ND team is. They have 3 AA caliber middies, 2 great attackman, the best goalie/SSDM, a great defense, and a dominant fogo. It’s not Pkav’s fault he has a dominant team around him, but if you took him off ND then they are still a top 5 team. You take Shelly off this UVA team and I don’t think they make it very far.
coda
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Re: Tewaaraton Award 2024

Post by coda »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 10:42 am
Hooz123 wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 9:48 am
Henpecked wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 6:19 am Matt Brandau deserves the Tewaaraton award for being the best player this season. The fact that his team didn’t make the tournament should have no bearing on this.

Give him the Tewey and then give an award to tournament MVP and be done with it.

Liam Entenmann listed as a finalist is just absurd. Pure ESPN hype. Hell, Pat Kavanagh is the MVP on Notre Dame. I could have made 8 saves (44%) behind that defense on Saturday.
It's May 20, 2024, and people still hyping up Matt Brandau. :lol:
Yes, best season by a very wide margin. And it's BS that he did it against 'weak' competition.

We've been through the stats, analyzed performances against same competitors, even looked at differences in teammate production efficiency.

Brandau stands out, way out, on all fair analysis. If season ended two weeks ago, shoe in.

Doesn't mean he gets it. I'd predicted that if Yale didn't make the tourney it would be extremely unlikely as the Committee takes into account post season play as well as regular season.

My favorite remains Shellenberger. It'll matter a ton how he does next weekend, but I have him currently a nose ahead of anyone else. I don't think either Kav is nearly the right answer, but a huge weekend by Kav and a falter by Shelly could push it there.

I'm also rooting for UVA to put it altogether, so that's where my head is at anyway!
I looked a couple weeks ago and Brandau’s defensive schedule was well behind guys like Kirst and Shelly. Kirst actually had the toughest at the time. 99% sure that Shelly has now passed him. Just curious what you used to say the criticism of his defensive schedule was weaker than the others was BS
coda
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Re: Tewaaraton Award 2024

Post by coda »

Laxguy703 wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 6:46 pm If Shelly can put up 4+ points against UMD and advance to the finals, he will be a lock. He has historically been locked down by Ajax so if he can put up some numbers against the best defender in college lacrosse and bring his team to the national championship, I don’t see how they don’t give it to him regardless of how the final plays out.

Kav is an all time great, but I don’t see him getting it due to how good his ND team is. They have 3 AA caliber middies, 2 great attackman, the best goalie/SSDM, a great defense, and a dominant fogo. It’s not Pkav’s fault he has a dominant team around him, but if you took him off ND then they are still a top 5 team. You take Shelly off this UVA team and I don’t think they make it very far.
The paragraph is interesting. I think it hurts Shelly, Kav, and Kirst in these discussions. Those teams don’t generally force feed their stars. They have a lot of talent around them. If they think they have a bigger advantage elsewhere, they are going to attack it.
Laxguy703
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Re: Tewaaraton Award 2024

Post by Laxguy703 »

coda wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 7:41 pm
Laxguy703 wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 6:46 pm If Shelly can put up 4+ points against UMD and advance to the finals, he will be a lock. He has historically been locked down by Ajax so if he can put up some numbers against the best defender in college lacrosse and bring his team to the national championship, I don’t see how they don’t give it to him regardless of how the final plays out.

Kav is an all time great, but I don’t see him getting it due to how good his ND team is. They have 3 AA caliber middies, 2 great attackman, the best goalie/SSDM, a great defense, and a dominant fogo. It’s not Pkav’s fault he has a dominant team around him, but if you took him off ND then they are still a top 5 team. You take Shelly off this UVA team and I don’t think they make it very far.
The paragraph is interesting. I think it hurts Shelly, Kav, and Kirst in these discussions. Those teams don’t generally force feed their stars. They have a lot of talent around them. If they think they have a bigger advantage elsewhere, they are going to attack it.
It definitely hurts them. If you put any of the guys you mentioned on a team with less talent than their current offenses, they would put up huge numbers because the offense would rely on them to do everything.

Take Brandau for example: Yale’s offense was riddled with injuries and it led to them relying on him essentially every possession. He would either initiate, feed, or shoot on every yale possession. This led him to put up crazy stats this year because his offense allowed him to maximize his full output. Yes Brandau is great, but he wouldn’t put up the same numbers on a team with more weapons(I.e 2023 where he only put up 70 points since he had to share the ball more with Lyons and Leo Johnson.)

Guys like Shelly, O’Neil, Kirst, and Kav don’t have to do this because sometimes there is a better option like Devon Mclane dodging a shorty, Schutz with a shorty, Dyson Williams in the inside… I could go on but you get the point. If we put O’Neill in the Yale Offense and told him to initiate or shoot every possession he would probably have 100+ points. The only issue is that recipe won’t lead you to a championship.
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Re: Tewaaraton Award 2024

Post by wgdsr »

Laxguy703 wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 8:41 pm
coda wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 7:41 pm
Laxguy703 wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 6:46 pm If Shelly can put up 4+ points against UMD and advance to the finals, he will be a lock. He has historically been locked down by Ajax so if he can put up some numbers against the best defender in college lacrosse and bring his team to the national championship, I don’t see how they don’t give it to him regardless of how the final plays out.

Kav is an all time great, but I don’t see him getting it due to how good his ND team is. They have 3 AA caliber middies, 2 great attackman, the best goalie/SSDM, a great defense, and a dominant fogo. It’s not Pkav’s fault he has a dominant team around him, but if you took him off ND then they are still a top 5 team. You take Shelly off this UVA team and I don’t think they make it very far.
The paragraph is interesting. I think it hurts Shelly, Kav, and Kirst in these discussions. Those teams don’t generally force feed their stars. They have a lot of talent around them. If they think they have a bigger advantage elsewhere, they are going to attack it.
It definitely hurts them. If you put any of the guys you mentioned on a team with less talent than their current offenses, they would put up huge numbers because the offense would rely on them to do everything.

Take Brandau for example: Yale’s offense was riddled with injuries and it led to them relying on him essentially every possession. He would either initiate, feed, or shoot on every yale possession. This led him to put up crazy stats this year because his offense allowed him to maximize his full output. Yes Brandau is great, but he wouldn’t put up the same numbers on a team with more weapons(I.e 2023 where he only put up 70 points since he had to share the ball more with Lyons and Leo Johnson.)

Guys like Shelly, O’Neil, Kirst, and Kav don’t have to do this because sometimes there is a better option like Devon Mclane dodging a shorty, Schutz with a shorty, Dyson Williams in the inside… I could go on but you get the point. If we put O’Neill in the Yale Offense and told him to initiate or shoot every possession he would probably have 100+ points. The only issue is that recipe won’t lead you to a championship.
no offense, but that brandau take might be the wildest one i've seen on anything on fanlax for awhile, and that's saying something. he might be the most efficient player in div 1 history, outside of finishers. he doesn't need the ball in his stick, he's not ball dominant, and he just racks up points. every one of those guys has gotten all the opportunities that brandau has, they've just cashed them at a significantly lower level this year. i'd guess yale games are still archived on espn+.
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Re: Tewaaraton Award 2024

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

coda wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 7:35 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 10:42 am
Hooz123 wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 9:48 am
Henpecked wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 6:19 am Matt Brandau deserves the Tewaaraton award for being the best player this season. The fact that his team didn’t make the tournament should have no bearing on this.

Give him the Tewey and then give an award to tournament MVP and be done with it.

Liam Entenmann listed as a finalist is just absurd. Pure ESPN hype. Hell, Pat Kavanagh is the MVP on Notre Dame. I could have made 8 saves (44%) behind that defense on Saturday.
It's May 20, 2024, and people still hyping up Matt Brandau. :lol:
Yes, best season by a very wide margin. And it's BS that he did it against 'weak' competition.

We've been through the stats, analyzed performances against same competitors, even looked at differences in teammate production efficiency.

Brandau stands out, way out, on all fair analysis. If season ended two weeks ago, shoe in.

Doesn't mean he gets it. I'd predicted that if Yale didn't make the tourney it would be extremely unlikely as the Committee takes into account post season play as well as regular season.

My favorite remains Shellenberger. It'll matter a ton how he does next weekend, but I have him currently a nose ahead of anyone else. I don't think either Kav is nearly the right answer, but a huge weekend by Kav and a falter by Shelly could push it there.

I'm also rooting for UVA to put it altogether, so that's where my head is at anyway!
I looked a couple weeks ago and Brandau’s defensive schedule was well behind guys like Kirst and Shelly. Kirst actually had the toughest at the time. 99% sure that Shelly has now passed him. Just curious what you used to say the criticism of his defensive schedule was weaker than the others was BS
Again, his production was against just as solid a defensive schedule as the others, maybe a game less than Kirst, but not a weak sister schedule. And his production was light years better, with less team support by a wide margin as well.

I'm not trying to suggest that he'll actually win the Tewey nor even that he should, as I'm hoping Shelly will continue to shine down the stretch and earn it outright. I think he's been the best player in the sport year in and year out, even if not the best season in any given year.

But if it was based solely on regular 2024 season, it's just not a close call.
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Re: Tewaaraton Award 2024

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

wgdsr wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 9:16 pm
Laxguy703 wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 8:41 pm
coda wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 7:41 pm
Laxguy703 wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 6:46 pm If Shelly can put up 4+ points against UMD and advance to the finals, he will be a lock. He has historically been locked down by Ajax so if he can put up some numbers against the best defender in college lacrosse and bring his team to the national championship, I don’t see how they don’t give it to him regardless of how the final plays out.

Kav is an all time great, but I don’t see him getting it due to how good his ND team is. They have 3 AA caliber middies, 2 great attackman, the best goalie/SSDM, a great defense, and a dominant fogo. It’s not Pkav’s fault he has a dominant team around him, but if you took him off ND then they are still a top 5 team. You take Shelly off this UVA team and I don’t think they make it very far.
The paragraph is interesting. I think it hurts Shelly, Kav, and Kirst in these discussions. Those teams don’t generally force feed their stars. They have a lot of talent around them. If they think they have a bigger advantage elsewhere, they are going to attack it.
It definitely hurts them. If you put any of the guys you mentioned on a team with less talent than their current offenses, they would put up huge numbers because the offense would rely on them to do everything.

Take Brandau for example: Yale’s offense was riddled with injuries and it led to them relying on him essentially every possession. He would either initiate, feed, or shoot on every yale possession. This led him to put up crazy stats this year because his offense allowed him to maximize his full output. Yes Brandau is great, but he wouldn’t put up the same numbers on a team with more weapons(I.e 2023 where he only put up 70 points since he had to share the ball more with Lyons and Leo Johnson.)

Guys like Shelly, O’Neil, Kirst, and Kav don’t have to do this because sometimes there is a better option like Devon Mclane dodging a shorty, Schutz with a shorty, Dyson Williams in the inside… I could go on but you get the point. If we put O’Neill in the Yale Offense and told him to initiate or shoot every possession he would probably have 100+ points. The only issue is that recipe won’t lead you to a championship.
no offense, but that brandau take might be the wildest one i've seen on anything on fanlax for awhile, and that's saying something. he might be the most efficient player in div 1 history, outside of finishers. he doesn't need the ball in his stick, he's not ball dominant, and he just racks up points. every one of those guys has gotten all the opportunities that brandau has, they've just cashed them at a significantly lower level this year. i'd guess yale games are still archived on espn+.
Agreed; I think it works the opposite way from laxguy's take.
When there's only one dominant player, all eyes are on him, slides come sooner, and feeds get finished at a lower rate.

When there are multiple major threats, eyes are swiveling, slides go away from our #1 and lead to more layups for him, and guys finish at a higher rate when he feeds.

Brandau scored more per game, at a higher % shooting rate, and with teammates who finished less well than the ND, Duke, and UVA teams. Just give him the props he's due for a tremendous regular season on a bubble team that didn't make it in.

That said, it doesn't mean that others aren't tremendous stars with excellent seasons and fully capable of a later run in the tournament that separates them from the pack. I'm hoping that's Shelly, if anyone.
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Re: Tewaaraton Award 2024

Post by coda »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 9:19 pm
coda wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 7:35 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 10:42 am
Hooz123 wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 9:48 am
Henpecked wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 6:19 am Matt Brandau deserves the Tewaaraton award for being the best player this season. The fact that his team didn’t make the tournament should have no bearing on this.

Give him the Tewey and then give an award to tournament MVP and be done with it.

Liam Entenmann listed as a finalist is just absurd. Pure ESPN hype. Hell, Pat Kavanagh is the MVP on Notre Dame. I could have made 8 saves (44%) behind that defense on Saturday.
It's May 20, 2024, and people still hyping up Matt Brandau. :lol:
Yes, best season by a very wide margin. And it's BS that he did it against 'weak' competition.

We've been through the stats, analyzed performances against same competitors, even looked at differences in teammate production efficiency.

Brandau stands out, way out, on all fair analysis. If season ended two weeks ago, shoe in.

Doesn't mean he gets it. I'd predicted that if Yale didn't make the tourney it would be extremely unlikely as the Committee takes into account post season play as well as regular season.

My favorite remains Shellenberger. It'll matter a ton how he does next weekend, but I have him currently a nose ahead of anyone else. I don't think either Kav is nearly the right answer, but a huge weekend by Kav and a falter by Shelly could push it there.

I'm also rooting for UVA to put it altogether, so that's where my head is at anyway!
I looked a couple weeks ago and Brandau’s defensive schedule was well behind guys like Kirst and Shelly. Kirst actually had the toughest at the time. 99% sure that Shelly has now passed him. Just curious what you used to say the criticism of his defensive schedule was weaker than the others was BS
Again, his production was against just as solid a defensive schedule as the others, maybe a game less than Kirst, but not a weak sister schedule. And his production was light years better, with less team support by a wide margin as well.

I'm not trying to suggest that he'll actually win the Tewey nor even that he should, as I'm hoping Shelly will continue to shine down the stretch and earn it outright. I think he's been the best player in the sport year in and year out, even if not the best season in any given year.

But if it was based solely on regular 2024 season, it's just not a close call.
I’ll have to look at again, but I would bet that the median defensive ranking he faced was behind guys like Kirst and Shelly. That doesn’t mean he is unworthy, he almost averaged 7 pts a game. Its can be true that he played a weak defensive SOS and deserves the Twaaraton.. see the Thompsons
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Re: Tewaaraton Award 2024

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

coda wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 9:28 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 9:19 pm
coda wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 7:35 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 10:42 am
Hooz123 wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 9:48 am
Henpecked wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 6:19 am Matt Brandau deserves the Tewaaraton award for being the best player this season. The fact that his team didn’t make the tournament should have no bearing on this.

Give him the Tewey and then give an award to tournament MVP and be done with it.

Liam Entenmann listed as a finalist is just absurd. Pure ESPN hype. Hell, Pat Kavanagh is the MVP on Notre Dame. I could have made 8 saves (44%) behind that defense on Saturday.
It's May 20, 2024, and people still hyping up Matt Brandau. :lol:
Yes, best season by a very wide margin. And it's BS that he did it against 'weak' competition.

We've been through the stats, analyzed performances against same competitors, even looked at differences in teammate production efficiency.

Brandau stands out, way out, on all fair analysis. If season ended two weeks ago, shoe in.

Doesn't mean he gets it. I'd predicted that if Yale didn't make the tourney it would be extremely unlikely as the Committee takes into account post season play as well as regular season.

My favorite remains Shellenberger. It'll matter a ton how he does next weekend, but I have him currently a nose ahead of anyone else. I don't think either Kav is nearly the right answer, but a huge weekend by Kav and a falter by Shelly could push it there.

I'm also rooting for UVA to put it altogether, so that's where my head is at anyway!
I looked a couple weeks ago and Brandau’s defensive schedule was well behind guys like Kirst and Shelly. Kirst actually had the toughest at the time. 99% sure that Shelly has now passed him. Just curious what you used to say the criticism of his defensive schedule was weaker than the others was BS
Again, his production was against just as solid a defensive schedule as the others, maybe a game less than Kirst, but not a weak sister schedule. And his production was light years better, with less team support by a wide margin as well.

I'm not trying to suggest that he'll actually win the Tewey nor even that he should, as I'm hoping Shelly will continue to shine down the stretch and earn it outright. I think he's been the best player in the sport year in and year out, even if not the best season in any given year.

But if it was based solely on regular 2024 season, it's just not a close call.
I’ll have to look at again, but I would bet that the median defensive ranking he faced was behind guys like Kirst and Shelly. That doesn’t mean he is unworthy, he almost averaged 7 pts a game. Its can be true that he played a weak defensive SOS and deserves the Twaaraton.. see the Thompsons
ok, ok, I guess the question is what one considers "weak".
I don't consider any of those schedules "weak", including what Albany played.

I think teams that give up a ton of points in multiple games aren't exactly defensive powerhouses and each of these guys had such games both in and out of conference as well as against teams that give up a lower average.

Just as importantly, if we looked at the handful of crossover games against exact same competition, Brandau out performed statistically as well...again, with less support and possessions.

Just a matter of a tremendous regular season year that was better statistically be a wide margin, not stating that he's necessarily the best player in the sport. Just props where props are due.
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Re: Tewaaraton Award 2024

Post by coda »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 9:39 pm
coda wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 9:28 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 9:19 pm
coda wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 7:35 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 10:42 am
Hooz123 wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 9:48 am
Henpecked wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 6:19 am Matt Brandau deserves the Tewaaraton award for being the best player this season. The fact that his team didn’t make the tournament should have no bearing on this.

Give him the Tewey and then give an award to tournament MVP and be done with it.

Liam Entenmann listed as a finalist is just absurd. Pure ESPN hype. Hell, Pat Kavanagh is the MVP on Notre Dame. I could have made 8 saves (44%) behind that defense on Saturday.
It's May 20, 2024, and people still hyping up Matt Brandau. :lol:
Yes, best season by a very wide margin. And it's BS that he did it against 'weak' competition.

We've been through the stats, analyzed performances against same competitors, even looked at differences in teammate production efficiency.

Brandau stands out, way out, on all fair analysis. If season ended two weeks ago, shoe in.

Doesn't mean he gets it. I'd predicted that if Yale didn't make the tourney it would be extremely unlikely as the Committee takes into account post season play as well as regular season.

My favorite remains Shellenberger. It'll matter a ton how he does next weekend, but I have him currently a nose ahead of anyone else. I don't think either Kav is nearly the right answer, but a huge weekend by Kav and a falter by Shelly could push it there.

I'm also rooting for UVA to put it altogether, so that's where my head is at anyway!
I looked a couple weeks ago and Brandau’s defensive schedule was well behind guys like Kirst and Shelly. Kirst actually had the toughest at the time. 99% sure that Shelly has now passed him. Just curious what you used to say the criticism of his defensive schedule was weaker than the others was BS
Again, his production was against just as solid a defensive schedule as the others, maybe a game less than Kirst, but not a weak sister schedule. And his production was light years better, with less team support by a wide margin as well.

I'm not trying to suggest that he'll actually win the Tewey nor even that he should, as I'm hoping Shelly will continue to shine down the stretch and earn it outright. I think he's been the best player in the sport year in and year out, even if not the best season in any given year.

But if it was based solely on regular 2024 season, it's just not a close call.
I’ll have to look at again, but I would bet that the median defensive ranking he faced was behind guys like Kirst and Shelly. That doesn’t mean he is unworthy, he almost averaged 7 pts a game. Its can be true that he played a weak defensive SOS and deserves the Twaaraton.. see the Thompsons
ok, ok, I guess the question is what one considers "weak".
I don't consider any of those schedules "weak", including what Albany played.

I think teams that give up a ton of points in multiple games aren't exactly defensive powerhouses and each of these guys had such games both in and out of conference as well as against teams that give up a lower average.

Just as importantly, if we looked at the handful of crossover games against exact same competition, Brandau out performed statistically as well...again, with less support and possessions.

Just a matter of a tremendous regular season year that was better statistically be a wide margin, not stating that he's necessarily the best player in the sport. Just props where props are due.
Massey Lacrosse rankings have an offensive, defensive, and cumm ranking for teams, so there is an unbiased resource to look at teams defensive SOS.

5 guys averaged 5 pts/game or more this season. If you take just the 3 big conferences, that number drops to 4. IVy had 3 in Brandau, King, and Long (Malone the lone non-Ivy). The fact that King got almost 0 pub for his season is a bad sign for Brandau. The real finalists were decided before the season in my opinion.
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CU77
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Re: Tewaaraton Award 2024

Post by CU77 »

Some interesting numbers from Lacrosse Reference, which has a rubric for computing the contribution towards an eventual goal (including actually scoring the goal), or preventing an eventual goal by the opponent, of every play. Here are the top-16 in expected goals per game:
stat_tewy.jpg
stat_tewy.jpg (248.69 KiB) Viewed 356 times

Shelly is #53.

https://lacrossereference.com/stats/sta ... ll-d1-men/
rasheed
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Re: Tewaaraton Award 2024

Post by rasheed »

CU77 wrote: Wed May 22, 2024 1:06 am Some interesting numbers from Lacrosse Reference, which has a rubric for computing the contribution towards an eventual goal (including actually scoring the goal), or preventing an eventual goal by the opponent, of every play. Here are the top-16 in expected goals per game:

stat_tewy.jpg


Shelly is #53.

https://lacrossereference.com/stats/sta ... ll-d1-men/
He sucks...
BigTom5
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Re: Tewaaraton Award 2024

Post by BigTom5 »

CU77 wrote: Wed May 22, 2024 1:06 am Some interesting numbers from Lacrosse Reference, which has a rubric for computing the contribution towards an eventual goal (including actually scoring the goal), or preventing an eventual goal by the opponent, of every play. Here are the top-16 in expected goals per game:

stat_tewy.jpg


Shelly is #53.

https://lacrossereference.com/stats/sta ... ll-d1-men/
Very interesting. I always thought Billy Kroeger of NJIT was a far more impactful player than Connor Shellenberger and this rubric proves it. What a compelling piece of analysis.
Hooz123
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Re: Tewaaraton Award 2024

Post by Hooz123 »

CU77 wrote: Wed May 22, 2024 1:06 am Some interesting numbers from Lacrosse Reference, which has a rubric for computing the contribution towards an eventual goal (including actually scoring the goal), or preventing an eventual goal by the opponent, of every play. Here are the top-16 in expected goals per game:

stat_tewy.jpg


Shelly is #53.

https://lacrossereference.com/stats/sta ... ll-d1-men/
Ah yes, Dylan Bedell of Marist. A real household name. Go to sleep, egghead. Not only is Shelly everything Brandau wished he was, Shelly would knock him out in a fight.
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Re: Tewaaraton Award 2024

Post by GaitsRightHand »

Hooz123 wrote: Wed May 22, 2024 8:11 am
CU77 wrote: Wed May 22, 2024 1:06 am Some interesting numbers from Lacrosse Reference, which has a rubric for computing the contribution towards an eventual goal (including actually scoring the goal), or preventing an eventual goal by the opponent, of every play. Here are the top-16 in expected goals per game:

stat_tewy.jpg


Shelly is #53.

https://lacrossereference.com/stats/sta ... ll-d1-men/
Ah yes, Dylan Bedell of Marist. A real household name. Go to sleep, egghead. Not only is Shelly everything Brandau wished he was, Shelly would knock him out in a fight.
Two private school kids going head-to-head. I'd pay to see. Last one standing gets sued by the others dad.
Hooz123
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Re: Tewaaraton Award 2024

Post by Hooz123 »

Laxguy703 wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 6:46 pm If Shelly can put up 4+ points against UMD and advance to the finals, he will be a lock. He has historically been locked down by Ajax so if he can put up some numbers against the best defender in college lacrosse and bring his team to the national championship, I don’t see how they don’t give it to him regardless of how the final plays out.

Kav is an all time great, but I don’t see him getting it due to how good his ND team is. They have 3 AA caliber middies, 2 great attackman, the best goalie/SSDM, a great defense, and a dominant fogo. It’s not Pkav’s fault he has a dominant team around him, but if you took him off ND then they are still a top 5 team. You take Shelly off this UVA team and I don’t think they make it very far.
There's a reason 5 other players, including 2of the other real Tewey finalists (Brandau was a courtesy finalist to acknowledge his season, that's it) were picked ahead of Pkav in the PLL draft.
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: Tewaaraton Award 2024

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

coda wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 9:59 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 9:39 pm
coda wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 9:28 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 9:19 pm
coda wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 7:35 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 10:42 am
Hooz123 wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 9:48 am
Henpecked wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 6:19 am Matt Brandau deserves the Tewaaraton award for being the best player this season. The fact that his team didn’t make the tournament should have no bearing on this.

Give him the Tewey and then give an award to tournament MVP and be done with it.

Liam Entenmann listed as a finalist is just absurd. Pure ESPN hype. Hell, Pat Kavanagh is the MVP on Notre Dame. I could have made 8 saves (44%) behind that defense on Saturday.
It's May 20, 2024, and people still hyping up Matt Brandau. :lol:
Yes, best season by a very wide margin. And it's BS that he did it against 'weak' competition.

We've been through the stats, analyzed performances against same competitors, even looked at differences in teammate production efficiency.

Brandau stands out, way out, on all fair analysis. If season ended two weeks ago, shoe in.

Doesn't mean he gets it. I'd predicted that if Yale didn't make the tourney it would be extremely unlikely as the Committee takes into account post season play as well as regular season.

My favorite remains Shellenberger. It'll matter a ton how he does next weekend, but I have him currently a nose ahead of anyone else. I don't think either Kav is nearly the right answer, but a huge weekend by Kav and a falter by Shelly could push it there.

I'm also rooting for UVA to put it altogether, so that's where my head is at anyway!
I looked a couple weeks ago and Brandau’s defensive schedule was well behind guys like Kirst and Shelly. Kirst actually had the toughest at the time. 99% sure that Shelly has now passed him. Just curious what you used to say the criticism of his defensive schedule was weaker than the others was BS
Again, his production was against just as solid a defensive schedule as the others, maybe a game less than Kirst, but not a weak sister schedule. And his production was light years better, with less team support by a wide margin as well.

I'm not trying to suggest that he'll actually win the Tewey nor even that he should, as I'm hoping Shelly will continue to shine down the stretch and earn it outright. I think he's been the best player in the sport year in and year out, even if not the best season in any given year.

But if it was based solely on regular 2024 season, it's just not a close call.
I’ll have to look at again, but I would bet that the median defensive ranking he faced was behind guys like Kirst and Shelly. That doesn’t mean he is unworthy, he almost averaged 7 pts a game. Its can be true that he played a weak defensive SOS and deserves the Twaaraton.. see the Thompsons
ok, ok, I guess the question is what one considers "weak".
I don't consider any of those schedules "weak", including what Albany played.

I think teams that give up a ton of points in multiple games aren't exactly defensive powerhouses and each of these guys had such games both in and out of conference as well as against teams that give up a lower average.

Just as importantly, if we looked at the handful of crossover games against exact same competition, Brandau out performed statistically as well...again, with less support and possessions.

Just a matter of a tremendous regular season year that was better statistically be a wide margin, not stating that he's necessarily the best player in the sport. Just props where props are due.
Massey Lacrosse rankings have an offensive, defensive, and cumm ranking for teams, so there is an unbiased resource to look at teams defensive SOS.

5 guys averaged 5 pts/game or more this season. If you take just the 3 big conferences, that number drops to 4. IVy had 3 in Brandau, King, and Long (Malone the lone non-Ivy). The fact that King got almost 0 pub for his season is a bad sign for Brandau. The real finalists were decided before the season in my opinion.
I’m a big fan of King. But if your team doesn’t get some big wins, you won’t get the notice.

Brandau simply has such tremendous #s that it couldn’t be ignored.
Hooz123
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Re: Tewaaraton Award 2024

Post by Hooz123 »

Let's just settle this once and for all.^ Brandau was a courtesy selection because if he wasn't picked as a "finalist," the cupcake league would be up in arms, reading everyone the riot act. Can you imagine how insufferable they would be for years? So fine. We acknowledge he had a great season (and he did), and we can show his little picture in the infographic throughout champ weekend. I guess the question is whether ESPN bothers to slice up a few highlights of him, or just gives him a quick mention.

Watching Shelly and Kav tear it up, talking about Oneils' heartbreaking exit...and oh yea, wait a minute who the heck is THAT guy?
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