2024 Bracketology

[joewillie78]

If we did the threat or eye test then Notre Dame would be playing for a 3peat in national championships this year

Yeah, the lacrosse fanbase is probably one of the most intelligent groups of sports fans as a whole, at least evidenced by this community. Lot of great statistical and fact-based analysis here. Until it works against one's beloved team. Then it reverts to the insults, eye tests, that was in februaryisms and Breschi's on the board conspiracies.

Maryland sucks right now, but their resume sucks less than the others.

Truth. Everyone hated on ND when they cried for a bid in 22…guess were all hypocrites

I plead guilty, as I cried for a bid in 2019, when they chose ND over Cornell after Cornell beat ND at ND.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

[keno in reno]

With Teams like Virginia and Maryland on the downswing, and results like yesterday's Big Ten final, we could be in for a very unorthodox and interesting final four this year. There could be a number of first round matchups where the unseeded team is the favorite.

Yeah, depends on where UVA gets seeded. The funny thing with them is that they should still be favored in every matchup except ND and Duke. They were handling Cuse pretty well until the penalty changed everything. If they get Duke or ND in the 2nd round then that changes the usual Final 4.
Notre Dame isn't losing before Memorial Day weekend.
Duke could have trouble with Michigan or good Penn State (not last night Penn State), but they'll be favored against everyone until they play ND.
Cuse would be a "new" old face to the final 4.
Maryland will lose its first round game.
Georgetown goes to OT against Providence and Nova; not sure they're beating a top 4 seed.
Denver's fluke win (don't like that term but it was a 1 in a million comeback) at JHU in game 1 makes their season look a lot different; not sure they can upset a top 4 seed.
JHU looks terrible right now.
So maybe that leaves the Ivy rep, St. Joe's or Michigan as party crashers. Wolverines sure look and act like they can beat anyone now.

[PizzaSnake]

St. Joe’s deserves far better than a matchup v #1 ND. If they truly seeded all 17 teams they would be 9-11 range

So? Win or go home. No participation trophies.

[Farfromgeneva]

Towson won’t be a fun opponent for any team in the first round. Physical squad that’s well balanced, peaking at the right time with a fifth year leader.

Watch out.

Denver 2017 is and you even talk about hot Towson.

[coda]

With Teams like Virginia and Maryland on the downswing, and results like yesterday's Big Ten final, we could be in for a very unorthodox and interesting final four this year. There could be a number of first round matchups where the unseeded team is the favorite.

Yeah, depends on where UVA gets seeded. The funny thing with them is that they should still be favored in every matchup except ND and Duke. They were handling Cuse pretty well until the penalty changed everything. If they get Duke or ND in the 2nd round then that changes the usual Final 4.
Notre Dame isn't losing before Memorial Day weekend.
Duke could have trouble with Michigan or good Penn State (not last night Penn State), but they'll be favored against everyone until they play ND.
Cuse would be a "new" old face to the final 4.
Maryland will lose its first round game.
Georgetown goes to OT against Providence and Nova; not sure they're beating a top 4 seed.
Denver's fluke win (don't like that term but it was a 1 in a million comeback) at JHU in game 1 makes their season look a lot different; not sure they can upset a top 4 seed.
JHU looks terrible right now.
So maybe that leaves the Ivy rep, St. Joe's or Michigan as party crashers. Wolverines sure look and act like they can beat anyone now.

The easiest way to say UVa belongs is to do a little exercise. Set a betting line on NCAA tournament wins on potential tournament participants. If the line is above 1, they belong. If it is below 1, time to discuss. Virginia would easily be above 1

[rolldodge]

With Teams like Virginia and Maryland on the downswing, and results like yesterday's Big Ten final, we could be in for a very unorthodox and interesting final four this year. There could be a number of first round matchups where the unseeded team is the favorite.

Yeah, depends on where UVA gets seeded. The funny thing with them is that they should still be favored in every matchup except ND and Duke. They were handling Cuse pretty well until the penalty changed everything. If they get Duke or ND in the 2nd round then that changes the usual Final 4.
Notre Dame isn't losing before Memorial Day weekend.
Duke could have trouble with Michigan or good Penn State (not last night Penn State), but they'll be favored against everyone until they play ND.
Cuse would be a "new" old face to the final 4.
Maryland will lose its first round game.
Georgetown goes to OT against Providence and Nova; not sure they're beating a top 4 seed.
Denver's fluke win (don't like that term but it was a 1 in a million comeback) at JHU in game 1 makes their season look a lot different; not sure they can upset a top 4 seed.
JHU looks terrible right now.
So maybe that leaves the Ivy rep, St. Joe's or Michigan as party crashers. Wolverines sure look and act like they can beat anyone now.

If this season has shown anything its that any tournament team has the capacity to beat any other on any given day. The only team I'd feel confident in betting on to make the FF is ND right now.

Towson, St Joe's, Boston U (if they win), Michigan, Georgetown, Penn or Princeton, Penn State or Maryland will/could all be unseeded and tough 1st round outs.

[AreaLax]

Here’s Patrick Stevens latest

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Penn State vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown

Towson, Md.

(5) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(4) Johns Hopkins vs. CAA/Towson

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh
(6) Denver vs. BIG TEN/Michigan

Towson, Md.

(7) Maryland vs. IVY/Princeton
(2) Duke vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

*************************
Now I thought they like to avoid repeat games. So Hop/Tow and MD/PU would both be repeats. I think they would flip them. Md/Tow and Hop/PU. Or even send GT to Md and PU to PSU

[rolldodge]

Or even send GT to Md

Man, I hope so. This year you definitely prefer to be in the 2/3 bracket vs the 1/4.

[Farfromgeneva]

St. Joe’s deserves far better than a matchup v #1 ND. If they truly seeded all 17 teams they would be 9-11 range

Depending on travel considerations they’ll get liek a 4-5 opponent I suspect. That win over Penn could easily push them past Towson and
They should good otherwise.

[Kismet]

Army (one time #1 in the country) does not qualify?

[keno in reno]

Or even send GT to Md

Man, I hope so. This year you definitely prefer to be in the 2/3 bracket vs the 1/4.

It would be fun (assuming Maryland can score a goal or 2). Lots of teams have exorcised their demons against the Terps the last 2 years; this is a perfect time for either Towson or Gtown to break out the Tillman voodoo doll (with ipad) as well.

[keno in reno]

Army (one time #1 in the country) does not qualify?

Nope. And every top seed is happy about it.

[Can Opener]

Army (one time #1 in the country) does not qualify?

Off the top of my head, I can’t think of another team that went from #1 to out-of-the-tournament in six weeks.

BU had their number this year. It would have been fun to see Army in the big dance where anything could happen.

[coda]

Or even send GT to Md

Man, I hope so. This year you definitely prefer to be in the 2/3 bracket vs the 1/4.

I just ran it and I don’t see an advantage in seeding
#1 ND vs Albany- +10.3
#2 Duke vs Lehigh- +7.3
#3 Cuse vs Lehigh 15 - 8 +7
#4 Hop vs Towson 12- 10 +1.9
#5 Virgina vs St Joseph’s 14-11 +3.3
#6 Denver vs Michigan 11-11 -0.7
#7 Maryland vs Princeton 10-11 -0.2
#8 PSU vs Gtown +1.5

[coda]

Army (one time #1 in the country) does not qualify?

Off the top of my head, I can’t think of another team that went from #1 to out-of-the-tournament in six weeks.

BU had their number this year. It would have been fun to see Army in the big dance where anything could happen.

Comes down to SOS.. Army did not have a good schedule. It’s the cross that mid-majors bear

[joewillie78]

Army (one time #1 in the country) does not qualify?

Off the top of my head, I can’t think of another team that went from #1 to out-of-the-tournament in six weeks.

BU had their number this year. It would have been fun to see Army in the big dance where anything could happen.

Towson about 5 years ago was ranked #1 after about 4 games and in the 5th game, Cornell beat them quite handily, but I don't remember if they made the tournament or not.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

[joewillie78]

Or even send GT to Md

Man, I hope so. This year you definitely prefer to be in the 2/3 bracket vs the 1/4.

I just ran it and I don’t see an advantage in seeding
#1 ND vs Albany- +10.3
#2 Duke vs Lehigh- +7.3
#3 Cuse vs Lehigh 15 - 8 +7
#4 Hop vs Towson 12- 10 +1.9
#5 Virgina vs St Joseph’s 14-11 +3.3
#6 Denver vs Michigan 11-11 -0.7
#7 Maryland vs Princeton 10-11 -0.2
#8 PSU vs Gtown +1.5

Wow, the Ivies go from a SIX bid league to a ONE bid league in 2 years. THAT has to be unprecedented.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

[HGK]

At some point you have to revisit RPI weighting. UVA is very likely in with no top 10 wins and strong losses. Meanwhile the Bubble IVY teams are out with better wins but also weaker RPI wins? Do I think UVA is a top 10 team? I do. Do i think losing to good teams means more than IVY good wins? I Don’t.

[jrn19]

Army (one time #1 in the country) does not qualify?

Off the top of my head, I can’t think of another team that went from #1 to out-of-the-tournament in six weeks.

BU had their number this year. It would have been fun to see Army in the big dance where anything could happen.

Rutgers was #1 in 2017 and missed

[Finster]

Tell me again why UVA is such an automatic? Yea, I get the RPI, but don’t you at least have to win some of those games, and not just play them? Wins against umd (do we know what they are , btw, from a quality perspective?), Harvard (didn’t make the Ivy tourney) and Mich (who before the Big10 tourney, hadn’t beaten anyone). 1-4 in ACC and have lost 4 straight.

Imagine what their RPI would be if they actually beat someone in the Top 10, and not just played them….

I don't see the case for UVA either. If anything, they're one of the few teams I feel has shown that they can't beat the top teams in the country.

Unfortunately for the bubble teams, they're also in a cushy position in the ACC where they can just lean on the RPI formula and fail upwards to a bid (and probably a seed).

Disregarding RPI and SOS, my eye test says Virginia belongs but Maryland doesn’t. Unless McNaney plays on his head, Maryland will just lose their first round game anyway; I’d give that slot to a team that plays to win.

Two other issues: ND has nothing to play for today while Duke might catapult to #2, amazingly. Yet ND plays with pride, so if you’re a Blue Devil, I wouldn’t count your chickens just yet.

Finally, how is Breschi on the committee? You think he’ll easily roll over for a deserving team over Tillman’s team, or Tiffany’s? These guys are friends. I’d rather nominate four Fanlax posters to be the committee. Not even kidding. JoeWillie, wgdsr, Wheels, Keno, and Blue Angel (and a few more in forgetting) seem to know strengths and weaknesses here better than Inside Lacrosse or any other pollster.

I agree 100%. There is something distasteful about UVa getting in losing 4 straight, but you can understand them getting in. Mostly because the individual talent is so good. They are a threat. Maryland is not a threat

If ever there were a year to open up the tournament to others, this is that year. And if left to me, I’d be darn certain to throw a curveball at ND for their first game, giving them an unknown like St Joseph’s.

Also I would put you on the committee too, Coda; I have no idea who you root for.

I am a Michigan fan..

Roger that.

Duke’s performance today makes me want to limit the ACC representation in the NCAA tournament. The same goes for Maryland and the B1G.

Reward hungry scrappy teams.